Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds)

Christine-In-AZ · Post #41 » by **Christine-In-AZ** » Thu Jan 8, 2015 7:13 pm

JTrain wrote:Re: Lakers' pick, here are the projected worst teams:

7. Charlotte 32-50
6. Miami 32-50
5. Lakers 31-51
4. Orlando 28-54
3. New York 18-64
2. Minnesota 15-67
1. Philly 14-68

Remember there is still a chance for us to get the pick if the Lakers get 5th worst, since a team behind them could get a ping pong ball and drop them to 6th.

...and (of course) lose it due to the ping-pong balls, even if the Lakers win enough to move up to 7 or 8 or higher overall.

Post #42 » by **bwgood77** » Thu Jan 8, 2015 7:40 pm

ChrisInAZ wrote:
JTrain wrote:Re: Lakers' pick, here are the projected worst teams:

7. Charlotte 32-50
6. Miami 32-50
5. Lakers 31-51
4. Orlando 28-54
3. New York 18-64
2. Minnesota 15-67
1. Philly 14-68

Remember there is still a chance for us to get the pick if the Lakers get 5th worst, since a team behind them could get a ping pong ball and drop them to 6th.

...and (of course) lose it due to the ping-pong balls, even if the Lakers win enough to move up to 7 or 8 or higher overall.

Actually, the highest odds if you end up with the 5th worst record is that you get the 6th pick. You can look at the odds here (though in this case, I believe Utah and Boston had the same record so they got almost the same number of balls, so the odds are a little off.

http://www.si.com/nba/point-forward/201 ... v-schedule

This second link is a more accurate reprsentation if there are no ties in the top 5. Look at the Pelicans chances to get each pick (they had the 5th worst record and dropped to 6th). The highest odds for where you would pick is that you slip a pick if you are in the 4 and 5 spot, and that you will slip two picks if in the 3rd spot, and three spots if in the 1 or 2 spots.

http://www.nba.com/hornets/2013-nba-dra ... odds-chart

Of course, even though the Lakers would have a 36% chance of dropping to sixth if they had the 5th worst record, there is still obviously a higher chance overall that they end up somewhere higher (and an 8.4% chance they slip to 7th).

JTrain · Post #43 » by **JTrain** » Thu Jan 8, 2015 7:40 pm

Yup, if they finish 6th we have a 21.5% chance of getting screwed by the lottery. If they finish 7th we have a 15% chance.

If they finish 5th we have 44.8% of the lottery bumping them to 6th or worst.

So at least we are more likely to benefit.

Post #44 » by **bwgood77** » Thu Jan 8, 2015 7:44 pm

JTrain wrote:Yup, if they finish 6th we have a 21.5% chance of getting screwed by the lottery. If they finish 7th we have a 15% chance.

If they finish 5th we have 44.8% of the lottery bumping them to 6th or worst.

So at least we are more likely to benefit.

Knowing our luck, the Lakers will get the 1st pick and somehow the Spurs will miss the playoffs and get the 2nd pick.

Bogyo · Post #45 » by **Bogyo** » Sat Jan 10, 2015 8:22 am

Boston just switched on the ignition in the tank. Sacramento slipping further... Good times

Although I's still pretty convinced that the Suns luck will catch up with us, and the LAL pick won't come this season, and will be **** next.

gaspar · Post #46 » by **gaspar** » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:12 pm

Lakers 12-25
Orlando 13-26
Detroit 12-24
Utah 13-24
Boston 12-22

Boston and Orlando will finish with a worse record than the Lakers IMO. Possibly Utah too.

Bogyo · Post #47 » by **Bogyo** » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:58 pm

gaspar wrote:Lakers 12-25
Orlando 13-26
Detroit 12-24
Utah 13-24
Boston 12-22

Boston and Orlando will finish with a worse record than the Lakers IMO. Possibly Utah too.

Hope you are right, and we get the sixth pick. Not getting my hopes up though... I see Orlando and Utah evolving during the season, and Lakers deflating (somewhat due to tanking).

JTrain · Post #48 » by **JTrain** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:08 am

60.4% vs. Pelicans 55.8%

JTrain · Post #49 » by **JTrain** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:27 pm

The stretch from Portland through Portland...

Revived · Post #50 » by **Revived** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:31 am

Sure, the Suns could give in to the idea that the Thunder are playoff-bound and shift focus to catching the team ahead of them in the standings. That would mean outplaying San Antonio, the defending champion with Tony Parker now back in action and Kawhi Leonard close to a return.

At 23-18, the Suns are just one win off of last season's midpoint record that came as Eric Bledsoe was out following knee surgery. They could feel good about the record and injury-free roster, considering they are 20-13 when point guards Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas all play and have played four more road games than at this stage last season.

They also have the NBA's fourth most difficult remaining schedule.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/n ... /21815231/

Ultimately if we don't make it, this will be what it falls on:

The Suns seemed to have solved their early-season home problems that gave away expected wins against Sacramento, Charlotte, Orlando, Miami, Detroit (the bad version) and Milwaukee.

And that's without including the losses against teams like Denver and Utah.

JTrain · Post #51 » by **JTrain** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:56 am

OKC, with healthy Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, along with Dion Waiters, once again lost by double digits. They were down 40-18 after the first quarter.

Revived · Post #52 » by **Revived** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 7:06 am

Houston looks incredibly strong. Rockets and Warriors look near unstoppable.

I really hope they don't get Brook Lopez. Charles Barkley made a great point after that game saying "OKC's biggest weakness is a consistent inside scorer and if they can get Brook, they become one of the best teams in the West". Shaq agreed with him as well.

JTrain · Post #53 » by **JTrain** » Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:16 am

These next ten games could make or break it. OKC and NOP both have it much easier than us. We need to surprise some people.

Revived · Post #54 » by **Revived** » Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:08 am

JTrain wrote:These next ten games could make or break it. OKC and NOP both have it much easier than us. We need to surprise some people.

Yup. That schedule after the LAL game will tell us all we need to know about the Suns.

JTrain · Post #55 » by **JTrain** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:11 pm

We are at 50.0% today.

Revived · Post #56 » by **Revived** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:04 am

We need Dallas to start dropping games. Come on Memphis!

Post #57 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:44 pm

fivethirtyeight has odds too, and we are about the same (though OKC is higher and the Rockets are a bit lower).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/intr ... yoff-odds/

Revived · Post #58 » by **Revived** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:18 am

We need OKC to lose tonight vs Miami.

Mr Puddles · Post #59 » by **Mr Puddles** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:47 am

I'm wondering why the Clippers are never mentioned in any playoff race discussion.

If the Suns can take care of business at home, they have a legit chance of sneaking up on the Clippers.

LAC schedule until the Allstar break:

vs Brooklyn
@ Phoenix
vs Denver
@ Utah
@ New Orleans
@ San Antonio B2B
@ Brooklyn
@ Cleveland
@ Toronto
@ Oklahoma City B2B
@ Dallas
vs Houston

Revived · Post #60 » by **Revived** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:51 am

Clippers have such a big lead already, I doubt it.