Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 4

[Frank Lee]

Keep on assuming J ... you are good at it

[Blackification]

And once and once and once

Agreed Frank ... right now I suspect once is probably never coming with these two. Again, history shows that high quality players progress significantly in their second year. Len was a whiff, Chriss and Bender are looking to be too. Cross our fingers that Jackson pans out but he's gonna be behind TJ Warren.

I guess the only factor in this is them not learning anything under Watson, but definitely if they don't show any improvement by the end of the season I will agree with those conclusions.

There's young players that have it and others that don't, these two are leaning towards the Alex Len and Archie Goodwin categories.

[AtheJ415]

Keep on assuming J ... you are good at it

It doesn't take assumption to find fault in your logic. It's rather obvious.

[bwgood77]

I swear these teams are tanking on purpose.

Last i looked, both Atlanta was beating the Knicks by like 8 with a few minutes left in the 4th. Same thing with Dallas against Minnesota. Somehow both lost in the end. SMH.

That seems to happen a lot, but they both won last night. Once LaVine comes back, if he's back to normal, the Bulls should be quite a bit better. Especially if Dunn continues to improve. Everyone thought those guys were peanuts when Butler was traded for them, but since Lauri has been pretty good, and if Dunn even just becomes an avg PG, that's a pretty good trade. That's at least two long term solid starters. If Dunn became a solid PG, that's more than half your starting lineup.

It's too bad John Collins is out for the Hawks as well.

[bwgood77]

And once and once and once

Agreed Frank ... right now I suspect once is probably never coming with these two. Again, history shows that high quality players progress significantly in their second year. Len was a whiff, Chriss and Bender are looking to be too. Cross our fingers that Jackson pans out but he's gonna be behind TJ Warren.

Bender's play has been a bit worrisome as of late, and I know people don't like excuses, but he's young, and he's basically kind of in his rookie year since he's only played in 71 games due to injury last year. Look at his comparison to Dirk here at the same age....basically the #s are the same across the board except for ppg, and Bender shot mostly all 3s so although he has shot well from 3, his overall fg% doesn't look as good, but he is much better from 3 than Dirk was then, and the same at rebounds, assists, blocks, and had a much better eFG%. http://bkref.com/tiny/r1iUu

And Chriss just had a solid game.

Also, playing under Watson couldn't have helped, especially to get ready for this season. Watson at least gave Chriss a lot of game time, but Bender, when healthy, didn't since Watson thought Chriss was the next Draymond Green and a future DPOY candidate.

[Revived]

Anyone think Ben McLemore can have a Victor Oladipo type resurgence on some team in the right system?

[NTB]

Anyone think Ben McLemore can have a Victor Oladipo type resurgence on some team in the right system?

No.

[Qwigglez]

Anyone think Ben McLemore can have a Victor Oladipo type resurgence on some team in the right system?

No.

I think part of the reason he slipped in the draft was he was mentally weak. I actually thought him going to the Grizzlies may revitalize his career but he hasn't taken that step forward IMO. Since he can't get it together with them I'd say a hard pass for us since he would be filling in as a backup role anyway.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Be surprised if Chicago, Atlanta, Sacramento aren't the bottom 3 teams.

I expect that we'll be in a similar position to last year with a high pick but open to consider a star trade.

With a high pick it's a sellers market and plenty of potential PG / C's dangled for a top 6 pick - Schroder, Walker, Drummond, Conley, Gasol, Whiteside, Gobert.

Wildcard would be if Sarver demands to pull the trigger on one of these deals after seeing half a dozen go by already and no team record improvement.

Potentially McDonough could uptrade the Miami pick into the top 10 and argue he still got a similar guy and push the rebuilding while contending model given Booker changed the assumptions for the timeline.

If that happened we'd be players in FA to get a 3rd if we can shed some salary.

[lilfishi22]

Anyone think Ben McLemore can have a Victor Oladipo type resurgence on some team in the right system?

I don't think McLemore has ever shown anything in his career to prove he's anything but who he is as a player right now. Oladipo has at least shown he's a very capable defender and a serious scoring threat by his 2nd season. It's a shame because McLemore has all the tools, he has the body, the shooting touch and athleticism to be a solid player but for him it's really all mental. Perhaps he could've benefited from an extra year in college but he played well enough in his freshman year (15/5/2 on good efficiency) to warrant declaring for the draft.

[Mulhollanddrive]

There's actually been a few of those guys come good which I didn't happened that much - Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo, Andre Drummond. Maybe I'm scarred from the Brandon Knight experience.

[Son of Ra]

We are playing them at the same position now. That doesn't mean they will end up at the same positions. Bender can guard 3s through 5s. Once he and Chriss add muscle they will be able to play both big spots, and once their 3 point shots become more consistent they will be able to play with each other more. It's not as if they aren't versatile. They are.

I have just resigned to the fact that Bender is destined to a Len fate.
He has incredible potential if developed right and to his strengths but for whatever reason we're absolutely terrible at that, totally misusing him and irreversibly stunting his growth and potential.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Dragan Bender is only 8 months older than DeAndre Ayton.

But he only took 3 two point attempts per 30 minutes in Europe the season he was drafted so I'm not sure if we're asking him to do more than he's capable he might just be a Channing Frye with some unicorn wishful thinking.

We were also selecting from a consensus 4-8 tier where expectations based on pick number might have set the bar too high for their level of ability - Bender, Murray, Hield, Dunn, Chriss.

Guys like Len, Bender, Chriss appear to fall into that prototype so for tanking to be effective the GM first needs to identify that there's future All-Stars in the range even if it's an elite pick and if a player hasn't done something before that he'll be able to in the NBA.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Its dangerous to let past misses scare you from using the draft to acquire tallent. Take Utah as an example they have been going guard in the draft with varying results with guys like alec burks, trey burke, exum, hood, and now mitchell. They could have said to themselves we've missed on some lotto picks lets trade out of the draft and pick up a middling vet instead of mitchell this year and really missed out on a gem.

Not every pick will hit, thats just the nature of the draft and the reason a team like philly wanted multiple high picks to improve the odds of some not all guys panning out.

Ultimately though like life this is a results based league and so far McDs results in tallent acquisition by all avenues simply hasn't been good enough. So imo we need to see some of his guys play well these last 55 games or I don't think he should be given the opportunity to make these next picks.

I don't think the suns strategy has been the problem, its the execution that is lacking.

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[bigfoot]

And once and once and once

Agreed Frank ... right now I suspect once is probably never coming with these two. Again, history shows that high quality players progress significantly in their second year. Len was a whiff, Chriss and Bender are looking to be too. Cross our fingers that Jackson pans out but he's gonna be behind TJ Warren.

You might be the only 2 people on the planet who write players off at their respective ages. How many current stars would actually pass you all's expectations? I' guessing maybe 3 or 4. The rest would've moved for average vet role players like Rubio.

Nearly every star player passes my expectation of scoring at a decent rate by their second season. You might be the only person who just refuses to the look at the numbers. That's your problem not mine. But just to give you one more chance to look at it again here is a list of active players who have averaged at least 12 points/game in one of their first two seasons. And contrary to your beliefs, it is loaded, yes loaded, with current star players. Well, except for Chriss, Bender, and Len.

http://bkref.com/tiny/7E4oZ

[Frank Lee]

Keep on assuming J ... you are good at it

It doesn't take assumption to find fault in your logic. It's rather obvious.

Logic says the odds of drafting two Starting quality players from slots 4-10 are against you. One may be, but the probability still is higher for failure than success. Add in their infancy and the odds grow even more.

Youth is a valid excuse. but the constant comparisons/defense arguments about legit players, as in... 'look at what Dirk was doing at that age' is ignoring the hundreds of young players who didn't make it. Remember that Tskitishvili kid... he was 19 when drafted? Does Tyrus Thomas ring a bell ? If you dont put the youngster in the proper environment to learn the game, their progress is stifled. THAT is what we have here. Too many youngsters muddle the process. It is not a stretch to think that either Bender or Chris will succeed. But it is highly unlikely both will.... and the statistics that say 'All Star' or even 'Starter' agree.

We have each for the next two+ years. I like seeing them play... but after this year, if one is not contributing consistently, has not seized the starting opportunity, it will be time to address the PF position.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Interesting to read Magic Johnson and Ryan McDonough seem to have the same strategy of building a young core then adding 2 Max Players.

GSW seem to have changed the blueprint because you can't get 4 All-Stars by one method alone so GMs are looking for a phased approach of draft (aim for 2) followed by FA / trade (top up to 4).

In the previous era we drafted 3 All-Stars and then acquired Nash but budgetting for 2 + 2 as a base case makes it seem more doable.

[bwgood77]

Anyone think Ben McLemore can have a Victor Oladipo type resurgence on some team in the right system?

Who knows, but he had a good game for Memphis and just signed a two year deal with them this past summer. But Victor Oladipo is a good example of a guy teams gave up on too quickly thinking he wasn't living up to what they were hoping and now he's really balling and scored 47 last night with 7 boards and 6 assists. A good example of why it's good not to give up on guys too quickly.

Over his last 5 he's averaged 31.8, 7 rebounds and 4.6 assists on 54% shooting and 46% from 3.

[bwgood77]

Be surprised if Chicago, Atlanta, Sacramento aren't the bottom 3 teams.

I expect that we'll be in a similar position to last year with a high pick but open to consider a star trade.

With a high pick it's a sellers market and plenty of potential PG / C's dangled for a top 6 pick - Schroder, Walker, Drummond, Conley, Gasol, Whiteside, Gobert.

Wildcard would be if Sarver demands to pull the trigger on one of these deals after seeing half a dozen go by already and no team record improvement.

Potentially McDonough could uptrade the Miami pick into the top 10 and argue he still got a similar guy and push the rebuilding while contending model given Booker changed the assumptions for the timeline.

If that happened we'd be players in FA to get a 3rd if we can shed some salary.

Those guys might be the bottom three teams but it doesn't mean they will get the top 3 picks. That never really happens. None of those guys you name are worth trading the 4th pick for. Conley was having a really down year this year.

Left out in the mess that was Fizdale vs. Gasol and the impending ownership drama is what is the real story line of the season, which is Conley’s early poor play and then eventual injury shutdown due to a sore Achilles tendon. Even before his removal from play, whether it was because of exhaustion from playing middle man between Gasol and Fizdale or the pain in his Achilles he couldn’t shake, he was not himself.

It was Mike Conley who after a career season last year was under-performing drastically to start this campaign, shooting 38% from the field and 31% from three.

It was Mike Conley who was posting a negative net rating (-4, 106 offensive rating, 110 defensive rating) for the first time since the 2009-2010 campaign.

https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/2017/12/8/16750740/waiting-on-mike-conley-memphis-grizzlies-nba

Plus he averages $30 million over the next 4 years.

Schroder isn't that great and has his own off the court problems and can't get along with teammates.

Gobert and Drummond obviously not going anywhere.

Whiteside can't stay healthy. Marc Gasol? Pretty old for a team that wouldn't be ready to go anywhere if they gave up major assets to get him and then would be depleted of assets to build around him for the short career he has left.

I think there is little chance McD would trade the pick when, even if you miss out on the top 4 or 5, there are still some pretty good guys like Jackson, Carter, Sexton, Williams, etc to add to a young core.

I see about 8 of 63 people, or 13% here would deal our first rounder and/or Jackson for a player like one of those, but I seriously doubt McD would do that unless he thought he would be fired unless the team made the playoffs, but that's when GMs make moves that hurt the long term outlook of a franchise.

[bwgood77]

Its dangerous to let past misses scare you from using the draft to acquire tallent. Take Utah as an example they have been going guard in the draft with varying results with guys like alec burks, trey burke, exum, hood, and now mitchell. They could have said to themselves we've missed on some lotto picks lets trade out of the draft and pick up a middling vet instead of mitchell this year and really missed out on a gem.

Not every pick will hit, thats just the nature of the draft and the reason a team like philly wanted multiple high picks to improve the odds of some not all guys panning out.

Ultimately though like life this is a results based league and so far McDs results in tallent acquisition by all avenues simply hasn't been good enough. So imo we need to see some of his guys play well these last 55 games or I don't think he should be given the opportunity to make these next picks.

I don't think the suns strategy has been the problem, its the execution that is lacking.

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Or Washington, Minnesota, Golden State, the Clips....any number of teams made bad draft picks for years and then ended up with Wall/Beal, Towns, Curry/Thompson/Green, Blake Griffin, etc.