Offseason Thread 7: A Tale Of Two Dragons

[JDLAW]

Yeah I was going to mention that. Pretty much any big man who can block shots without fouling is unique but there are maybe less than a handful of those guys who can do that.

I love everyone's citation to stats per 36 min. Keep this in mind. Last year there were more than 500 players that matriculated through the NBA and there were 16 who averaged 36 minutes or more per game. To my way of thinking using stats per 36 min is artificial and misleading.

As for Len, if he is good enough to play 30 mpg and he fouls out of every game - I''ll take that as a huge step in his development.

Well, per 36 is relevant just for purproses in a certain context...they could be really useful for many of our players considering our depth. People focus on what stats guys can get running down our lineup, but that obviously is going to be largely dependent on the minutes they get. A good way to compare how they are doing relatively speaking, is looking at per-36 numbers, as long as you also account that some guys get better stats simply because they play bench units more often, etc.

The only problem is that stats do not scale linearly with minutes. Few things in the world scale linearly and NBA players are not an exception to the rule. I learned that from my engineering training. It is highly unlikely the player that plays 12 minutes and scores 7 ppg would score 21 ppg if he played 36 minutes.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

It was multiple guys. There was a heated team meeting late in the year that many suspect was the team confronting IT about his play style and there was obvious tension between IT and most of the starters as the year went on.

Interesting. Sounds like bad chemistry. But if he doesn't look to get others involved that is a problem but also odd since he got six assists. Though I do remember Webber had similar complaints about Iverson even though Iverson usually had quite a few assists. Some guys don't initiate ball movement and dribble too much of the clock out and only pass late on the shot clock.

He might be better as a sixth man, but he needs to pass to guys like Green and Warren or Len if he is playing with them.

I tend to think score-first players often work better with other score-first players who score in a different way. I'm excited to see IT with TJ, in particular.

[lilfishi22]

I wonder what we sold Thomas on. A starting spot? 1st player off the bench? I mean if the expectations were set high when he signed his deal then I could maybe see some tension there.

[JTrain]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Suns/status/517497902445625345[/tweet]

This was #10 on SCTop10

[SunsFanSSOL]

Don't think I've seen this posted: http://arizonasports.com/?sid=1770696&nid=41

"I actually had it signed already (the QO), I signed it," Bledsoe told Bickley and Marotta on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Monday. "I knew I was going to be back in Phoenix either way."

[JDLAW]

It was multiple guys. There was a heated team meeting late in the year that many suspect was the team confronting IT about his play style and there was obvious tension between IT and most of the starters as the year went on.

Interesting. Sounds like bad chemistry. But if he doesn't look to get others involved that is a problem but also odd since he got six assists. Though I do remember Webber had similar complaints about Iverson even though Iverson usually had quite a few assists. Some guys don't initiate ball movement and dribble too much of the clock out and only pass late on the shot clock.

He might be better as a sixth man, but he needs to pass to guys like Green and Warren or Len if he is playing with them.

I tend to think score-first players often work better with other score-first players who score in a different way. I'm excited to see IT with TJ, in particular.

Cosmo - I agree with your points and I think IT will be a better playmaker here. Take a look at the Kings roster and the number of assists those players generated. The team was a collective black hole, few if any of the players were good or willing passers. They also had a team that tended to stand as opposed to move, that often forces a point guard to over dribble to look for players who can score. I watched a few more than a handful of their games last year and they were truly a awful, chemistry challenged team. They can blame IT if they want, but there was problems all around with players giving up the ball.

[bwgood77]

I love everyone's citation to stats per 36 min. Keep this in mind. Last year there were more than 500 players that matriculated through the NBA and there were 16 who averaged 36 minutes or more per game. To my way of thinking using stats per 36 min is artificial and misleading.

As for Len, if he is good enough to play 30 mpg and he fouls out of every game - I''ll take that as a huge step in his development.

Well, per 36 is relevant just for purproses in a certain context...they could be really useful for many of our players considering our depth. People focus on what stats guys can get running down our lineup, but that obviously is going to be largely dependent on the minutes they get. A good way to compare how they are doing relatively speaking, is looking at per-36 numbers, as long as you also account that some guys get better stats simply because they play bench units more often, etc.

The only problem is that stats do not scale linearly with minutes. Few things in the world scale linearly and NBA players are not an exception to the rule. I learned that from my engineering training. It is highly unlikely the player that plays 12 minutes and scores 7 ppg would score 21 ppg if he played 36 minutes.

That is why I said take it in appropriate context. Many people don't so I expressed that. Of course many that use it still want, but most of the things you can look at as long as you understand how to use them for effective analysis.

[bwgood77]

Interesting. Sounds like bad chemistry. But if he doesn't look to get others involved that is a problem but also odd since he got six assists. Though I do remember Webber had similar complaints about Iverson even though Iverson usually had quite a few assists. Some guys don't initiate ball movement and dribble too much of the clock out and only pass late on the shot clock.

He might be better as a sixth man, but he needs to pass to guys like Green and Warren or Len if he is playing with them.

I tend to think score-first players often work better with other score-first players who score in a different way. I'm excited to see IT with TJ, in particular.

Cosmo - I agree with your points and I think IT will be a better playmaker here. Take a look at the Kings roster and the number of assists those players generated. The team was a collective black hole, few if any of the players were good or willing passers. They also had a team that tended to stand as opposed to move, that often forces a point guard to over dribble to look for players who can score. I watched a few more than a handful of their games last year and they were truly a awful, chemistry challenged team. They can blame IT if they want, but there was problems all around with players giving up the ball.

Yes, I truly doubt they will find Collison and Sessions leading to more success, unless Cousins learns to be a guy that passes more and learns to play like a big star who helps others succeed and not just himself.

I like Sessions but if the rest of the team isn't terribly worried about team play and they want to blame point guards all the time it won't work, especially with bottom level point guards.

[lilfishi22]

The only problem is that stats do not scale linearly with minutes. Few things in the world scale linearly and NBA players are not an exception to the rule. I learned that from my engineering training. It is highly unlikely the player that plays 12 minutes and scores 7 ppg would score 21 ppg if he played 36 minutes.

I think fpg is relevant for projecting big men since it is generally a big factor in what's keeping them off the court.

[wheezy]

Don't think I've seen this posted: http://arizonasports.com/?sid=1770696&nid=41

"I actually had it signed already (the QO), I signed it," Bledsoe told Bickley and Marotta on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Monday. "I knew I was going to be back in Phoenix either way."

Saw Coro tweet something about him having signed the QO earlier. Still dumb it took so long to get him signed.

[JDLAW]

Well, per 36 is relevant just for purproses in a certain context...they could be really useful for many of our players considering our depth. People focus on what stats guys can get running down our lineup, but that obviously is going to be largely dependent on the minutes they get. A good way to compare how they are doing relatively speaking, is looking at per-36 numbers, as long as you also account that some guys get better stats simply because they play bench units more often, etc.

The only problem is that stats do not scale linearly with minutes. Few things in the world scale linearly and NBA players are not an exception to the rule. I learned that from my engineering training. It is highly unlikely the player that plays 12 minutes and scores 7 ppg would score 21 ppg if he played 36 minutes.

That is why I said take it in appropriate context. Many people don't so I expressed that. Of course many that use it still want, but most of the things you can look at as long as you understand how to use them for effective analysis.

I read your comments and agree. My point is that it is not much of an analysis took if the premise on which it is based is false. You are a bright guy and would seem to know how to use it, as limited as it is, but so many more people do not, that is not worth the effort.

[LukasBMW]

You're probably not too far off on average, but I think Goodwin will see minutes before Z Dragic does and both Plumlee and Len will likely get a few more minutes than you have there. It is only 38 minutes and I do not think Markeiff will average 10 minutes/game at the center spot.

I'd be really interested to see Z and Goodwin go at it in practice. It will really tell us a lot about where they're at in terms of NBA development. If Z can defend and score on Goodwin, then it tells us Goodwin is not quite ready for consistent minutes yet. If the opposite occurs, it means Z was brought in primarily for non-basketball reasons and is not ready to contribute yet.

Either way, there are only spot minutes and they'll split it between the two depending on how they go in practice.

Dude, you are always on point! I always agree with your posts.

[lilfishi22]

Don't think I've seen this posted: http://arizonasports.com/?sid=1770696&nid=41

"I actually had it signed already (the QO), I signed it," Bledsoe told Bickley and Marotta on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Monday. "I knew I was going to be back in Phoenix either way."

Saw Coro tweet something about him having signed the QO earlier. Still dumb it took so long to get him signed.

Just tells us that he wasn't ready to negotiate off his max demands.

[bwgood77]

Don't think I've seen this posted: http://arizonasports.com/?sid=1770696&nid=41

"I actually had it signed already (the QO), I signed it," Bledsoe told Bickley and Marotta on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Monday. "I knew I was going to be back in Phoenix either way."

That's interesting, but I guess that means that the agent didn't submit it but showed our guys he has signed it which actually sounds like a sly move and I never considered they would do something like that. That makes signing him at the amount we did more imperative. It's more imperative at that point and obviously if he was willing to take it (although I would be willing to bet a large amount of money that he never would have actually made it official and given it to the Suns....but just dangled it and Bledsoe was told they were just going to use it for leverage). The thing is, we were probably already willing to go up to that amount as we would have matched another team's max offer at 16 a year anyway, so 14 is a bargain considering that.

[jredsaz]

Hmmm. He averaged 6.8 fouls per 36. That's actually a bit of a problem.

Yeah I was going to mention that. Pretty much any big man who can block shots without fouling is unique but there are maybe less than a handful of those guys who can do that.

I love everyone's citation to stats per 36 min. Keep this in mind. Last year there were more than 500 players that matriculated through the NBA and there were 16 who averaged 36 minutes or more per game. To my way of thinking using stats per 36 min is artificial and misleading.

As for Len, if he is good enough to play 30 mpg and he fouls out of every game - I''ll take that as a huge step in his development.

The per 36 metric is a rudimentary way to compare players against each other. It provides a common denominator from which to extrapolate effectiveness much like the per 100 possessions stat. Obviously, the issues with the metric are extensive and includes issues such as the competition a player faces most when on the court (starter v bench) and can be significantly distorted if a player plays less than 10 (or so) minutes a game.

However, the metric is useful to comp players who play a similar role but have a semi-marginal discrepancy in minutes. Obviously, the larger the discrepancy the less accurate the stat. I consider it useful if taken with a grain of salt.

[JTrain]

I think we might be jumping the gun with the IT judgements.

I believe Babby when he says, "The one thing about Jeff that is special-- sounds simple but it's not, particularly in this business-- Jeff is authentic. He doesn't sugar coat anything with the players. He tells them the truth."

Hornacek said he expected Bledsoe to return. I don't believe he would have offered any ridiculous guarantees to IT. He told him that he could be valuable to the team and his skills would be utilized to help us win. So I don't think there were any false pretenses. IT wants to feel wanted and it sounds like there was some bad blood boiling toward the end of his SAC run. But he is rich now, wanted and can be part of a playoff run for the first time in his career.

I'm not saying some of the observations on his personality type aren't reasonable. He could have certain issues that cause problems down the line, especially if we aren't winning. But I don't think it's anything to be concerned about at this stage.

Now, an alternate or perhaps additional theory could be that McD saw that IT was disgruntled in SAC and knew that PGs were not in high demand this off-season. This allowed us to get a starting PG at a good price with the plan that he could help push us to the next level, but if not, he would be on a good contract for when the PG market inevitably turns around. IT combined one of our 1st round picks and perhaps Archie could net us a top 10 C or PF.

[SlovenianDragon]

Anyone know if the suns scrimmage on October 4th will be streamed? I know the suns have streamed some stuff before on their website...Just want to see if anyone knows if this one will also so I can plan my day around it

[jredsaz]

But the problem with that is he's never going to be satisfied by just by being a spark plug off the bench. He legitimately thinks he's a top 5 point guard and will be an all-star one day, hell he probably thinks he's deserving of an all-star spot now. Sure, he's fine right now with coming off the bench (although he says if that's the case he's going to need big minutes and to close out games) but from all the interviews I've heard from him I think he believes he will be a starter on this team eventually. Good thing his contract is reasonable as I can see a team like the Lakers, Mavs, Knicks, Pacers, Pistons, Heat, or Rockets being interested in him in a bigger role. I can see him being movable if Ennis or Goodwin emerge in the next 2 years or so. I think if we re-sign Green then it's telling that Thomas's time here will be short-lived.

The Suns were essentially tied with SAC for fewest assists per game last year. Execution in the half court is the most important improvement/step the team can make this season in their pursuit of a better record.

However, assists are obviously not the key to success for the Suns and the system they implement. In a 25+ minutes per game role IT will kill it. Will IT's little-man-chip-on-the-shoulder complex prove detrimental to team chemistry? Maybe. But IT has never played on a winning team. I assume his competitive spirit will be satisfied by team success. At least for 2014-2015.

[jredsaz]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Suns/status/517497902445625345[/tweet]

This was #10 on SCTop10

Lol! I am pretty sure I watched my boy Mike Nash get posterized by Richard Jefferson in that same gym circa 1997ish. RichJef was a monster at Moon Valley. Missed getting my own poster by one game as my school lost in the quarter finals.

[Scutt]

I do think he is going to play 5-10minpg as a Center with Marcus next to him as a PF.
It depends on Len, but you got such depth in the perimeter that you will probably play smallball a lot.
Zoran is way more ready to play than Archie and he fits a role, slasher off the bench that can hit from outside, rebound, cut, play in transition and play smart and defense, he is a energetic guy that is going to play hard even if you give him small minutes, I'm not sure about Archie, and I do like him.

You are getting way ahead of yourself. What makes you think Zoran is NBA ready? He is not a good outside shooter, he has improved but he is still pretty streaky. Not to mention the NBA 3 point line is further out I believe. Honestly Zoran will probably need some time to transition and acculmate to the league, just like Goran did. No NBA rookie is going to play smart defense right out of the gates. Don't forget that Zoran is not that athletic and may have trouble keeping up with scoring guards, so I think its a stretch to say he fits a role over Archie, when he hasn't played a single minute in the NBA yet.