Saberestar wrote:Ghost of Kleine wrote:Saberestar wrote:
Yeah, Dunn's FT percentages are terrible and that's a big red flag because usually players that shoot bad from the 3p line AND FTs almost never develop a good shot in the NBA.
He is 6,6.25" without shoes, so I can't imagine him as a full time PF or smallball 5 in the NBA.
Well, players don't play games barefoot now do they...lol so in shoes, might as well add an inch or two since all players wear shoes in the NBA ........ right. And honestly, who needs to imagine him as a full time 4 or even a small ball 5 man? His role is and should be as an elite wing stopper because he's close to 6'8 (in shoes) and is a jumbo wing with ELITE athleticism and a 7'2 wingspan at 6/7-6'8. A defensive SF would be his role because there's plenty of actual big 4s and 4/5s available too in the draft as well as free agency. It'd be idiotic to try and go small positionally again after how Minnesota and other bigger and more athletic teams dominated us. We just need to let him play his proper role as a lockdown perimeter wing/forward at the 3, and he'll excel there in that capacity just fine.
I believe he'll develop a reliable shot because of his intense work ethic and high IQ, but to each their own on how they view him I suppose.
Truly information is really important when drafting an unknown and young player.
Some players/teams put their true height (barefoot) and some other players/teams put his height+shoes. It's important to know exactly how tall a player actually is because this is basketball not soccer lol.You're right, it's not soccer man! But again, basketball players do not at any time play barefoot either, and those shows you speak of actually (depending upon styles) as most thick-soled sneakers worn by basketball players and younger generation add between 1-2 inches on average to height. But again, no one is asking or really expecting him to play as a full-time power forward or small ball center anyways because he's clearly a small forward who is defensively elite on the perimeter, in recovery, and in transition too. His size obviously won't be an issue at the SF considering we already employ a 6'5 Okogie, 6'4 O'neale, 6'4 Grayson Allen, 6'6 Nassir Little at the same position. And Dunn is easily more athletic and possesses a longer wingspan than all of those players mentioned.
Some players (or their agents) try to cheat with his actual height for obvious reasons and measuring them without shoes is the most effective way to avoid that.No I get that man, and that's fine for anthrometric clarity. But Dunns' measurements have been widely established and his abilities at his stated position are well established too. Again, I have no issues whatsoever with his measurements because "in shoes" as all athletes play, He'll be getting back those 1-2 inches, even though I find the argument somewhat frivolous and inconsequential based upon his distinct position/ role.
At 6'7 with shoes (he doesn't wear heels) he is gonna have a tough time playing near the rim, and he will need to play next to the rim because he can't shoot at all.Again, IN SHOES because no one plays barefoot now do they? with most basketball players wearing thick-soled (for traction) mid sneakers, he'll actually be closer to 6'8 than 6'6. But all of this conjecture over an inch or two in height is highly inconsequential because he at his height just also happens to have a 7'2 wingspan, and this:
And honestly man, you only need to go back and watch more tape on Dunn to easily see that he in no way struggles with scoring at/around the rim given his ELITE athleticism and vertical burst.
https://www.sportsbusinessclassroom.com/scouting-virginia-forward-ryan-dunn/#:~:text=He%20can%20use%20his%20size,tools%20to%20finishDunn will be fine playing at/around the rim due to his elite vertical burst allowing him to finish through or above opposing defenses (there are many highlights that illustrate how easily he dos this), and due to his elite mobility, awareness and cutting/slashing ability too.Dunn’s biggest strength offensively is his play finishing around the rim. He can use his size and athleticism at the basket for solid finishes. According to www.barttorvik.com, Dunn shot 67.9 percent at the rim on 131 attempts while being assisted on 67.4 percent. He has shown a sharp awareness of cutting to open space, using his tools to finish through contact. He thrives in transition, where he can quickly get up the court to unleash a powerful dunk.
His shooting form doesn't look bad but that's not a positive factor because that means that probably is a mental thing or some other aspect more difficult to correct than just the shooting release.Fair concerns of course! But in the NBA, there are plenty of high-end expert shooting coaches' who can be hired to help refine/ adjust critical aspects of his shooting. And that's again, in addition to the already elit shooters that we have on the team that could easily help mentor him in key aspects of his game as needed. But his immediate translatable value is again quite obviously his sensational game-changing defense which our team severely lacks anywhere on our roster!
His numbers at the FT line are horrible:
50% as a freshman.
53% as a sophomore.
WOW. Those are Ben Wallace's numbers and we are talking about a perimeter player.But we're clearly NOT talking about a perimeter player that establishes his value on the offensive side of the ball now are we? To be clear, we already have plenty of offensive weapons/ shooters, BUT NO real and legitimate lockdown defenders that could actually slow down or stop opposing teams' best scorers. And basketball games are not won on one side of the court alone as we bitterly found out in the playoffs against the Timberwolves and just as the Mavs are finding out against the Celtics too. We have high-end offense, but very obviously are wearing out our stars and key players by putting too much pressure on them on the defensive end of the ball. Wouldn't it be somewhat nice or even a reprieve for them to have an elite defensive option or even two that could fully shoulder that pressure specific to their roles and abilities and in having that, we'd free up our big three and key players to more naturally excel in their scoring roles with more focus on those gifts they possess? Also, players like Ben Wallace (per your example played a critical role in their team winning a championship didn't he regardless of poor free throw shooting? And what role did he play for Detroit in their championship run again?............. ELITE DEFENSIVE STOPPER.
And what about his 3p shooting?
31% on 0.5 attemps in his first season.
20% on 1 attempt in his second season.Well, when you look closely at his stats, you'll see that per game, he really only averaged around 1 3PT attempt and 2.3 free throw attempts per game. So it's not even a decent sample size to pull from. Again, Dunn had a very specific role at Virginia in which he was only asked to be a lockdown defensive connector/glue guy/ and play finisher. He obviously wasn't asked to be an offensive focal point and had a very specific role they asked of him that he excelled in without complaint. And with not really being needed to do much beyond that role, he obviously didn't get much opportunities to properly develop those other aspects of his game. I find it a credit to his dedication to his teams' overall success that he willingly put his teams' success over his personal success and development in order to fulfill his role optimally. My point becomes that in a different environment/situation and with much greater resources available at the NBA level, there's really no reason he couldn't significantly improve in that area of his overall game. But again, even if the development takes time or never fully reaches the levels of a two-way threat, his elite lockdown defensive abilities will still provide premium value/impact right from the jump!
Can you give me an example of a perimeter player shooting that extremely bad in college and then being a solid player in the NBA?First off, it's worth noting that Dunn did shoot 31% from three in his freshman season. But if you're talking from three, then there are numerous examples of players who shot around the 20s' in college and became much better in the NBA:
Jaylen Brown, Anthony Edwards, DeAaron Fox, and Dejounte Murray all shot sub 30% from 3 in college. Khris Middleton actually shot around 26% in his senior year at texas A&M, and 32% overall, and is now considered pretty good offensively huh? also, De'aaron Fox in particular might not be an 'elite' shooter now, but he's come a long way from shooting 24.6% on less than 2 attempts per game at Kentucky. Oh, and how about Jason Kidd who shot around 33% from three (28% in his freshman season) in college, And what about Kwahi Leonard who shot around 25% from three (only 20% during his freshman season)? By the way, what are Kwahi Leonards measurables again in relation to Dunns??
Kwahi Leonard
6'7 225 lbs with a 7'3 wingspan.
Ryan Dunn
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/ryan-dunn-1.html (just to humor you, let's say 6'7 213 lbs).
6'7 213 lbs with a 7'2 wingspan. Quite similar to Kwahi Leonard. And Leonard turned out pretty good defensively and overall didn't he. Also another player who is nearly identical in measurables, wingspan, elite defensive IQ, and athleticism who was quite good for us defensively and we were very fond of in Mikal Bridges:
Mikal Bridges
6'7 191 lbs with a 7'1 wingspan.
Now I'm not trying to claim that Dunn will become nearly as great as either one of those star wing players, but on the defensive end, I very honestly could see Dunn being equally as special and impactful. The offensive end is the investment trade-off that allows him to actually be available outside of the lottery man. Because if his offense were even already a positive, then he'd easily be a top 10 lottery prospect. But that's wherein his underlying value is dormant too.[/color][/i]
Like I said I am interested in him because of his defense, intensity, and athleticism BUT his absolute lack of shooting scares me a lot.
Ultimately, I completely agree with you on your last point here as it's the same reason and same concerns that I have too. However, the difference for me is in that I believe his ELITE lockdown defensive potential is great enough (for our critical needs) that I can have some patience in his development on the offensive side of the ball. For me, the skillset/intangibles and elite attributes simply outweigh those initial concerns. And those very concerns only become further mitigated by our teams' already elite offensive capabilities easily offsetting his offensive deficiencies, and minimizing the need for him to even be a significant offensive weapon in our scheme. Our team as constructed is offensively elite enough at this stage that we should be looking specifically for players with his very skillset that can play a supplemental utility low usage role in support of our big three WITHOUT NEEDING TO take the ball out of their hands to be effective! Dunn exemplifies this thought process with his connective glue guy defensive role-playing off of star players/ scorers. By the way, Dunn also has a 9% rebounding rate and a 2% offensive rebounding rate too, and IF you look again closely, he's also a deceptively underrated passer who doesn't turn the ball over. So ultimately he's an elite-level defensive Swiss army knife connective wing that does a bit of everything and possesses a very high IQ team team-first mentality. Those are the types of bench players w should be targeting in support of our core.
*** Check out these two impressive scouting reports on Ryan Dunn for a more accurate and eloquent quicker breakdown of Dunns' true value (from professional scouting lenses):
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/ryan-dunn-agent-of-chaos
https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/ryan-dunn-scouting-report
(at your leisure of course)
