2020 NBA Draft Prospect Watch - Revised Poll

[RedIndian]

I forgot to mention Tre Jones, who I really like as well. If he works on that 3-ball (I don't think he'll be a terrible shooter btw), he'll be a very good pro. Just a smart winning player, and plays absolutely tenacious defense.

Loved his matchup against Cole Anthony in Feb:

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[Ghost of Kleine]

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[RedIndian]

Great link GoK!

Very very useful in projecting scoring ability in the NBA at the three levels.

Just going to break that down for the best PG and PF prospects in the draft.

PGs first:

1. Cole Anthony

Rim makes - 37/59 (53.6%)
Other 2P - 45/135 (33.3%)
3P - 49/141 (34.8%)

2. Grant Riller

Rim makes - 108/153 (70.6%)
Other 2P - 65/162 (40.2%)
3P - 47/129 (36.4%)

3. Malachi Fynn

Rim makes - 60/88 (68.2%)
Other 2P - 47/121 (38.8%)
3P - 74/201 (36.8%)

4. Payton Pritchard

Rim makes - 92/153 (60.1%)
Other 2P - 36/97 (37.1%)
3P - 88/212 (41.5%)

5. Devon Dotson

Rim makes - 123/192 (64.1%)
Other 2P - 17/69 (24.6%)
3P - 35/115 (30.4%)

6. Tre Jones

Rim makes - 61/113 (54%)
Other 2P - 62/162 (38.3%)
3P - 39/108 (36.1%)

7. Kira Lewis

Rim makes - 117/203 (57.6%)
Other 2P - 33/93 (35.5%)
3P - 56/154 (36.4%)

8. Tyrese Maxey

Rim makes - 71/109 (65.1%)
Other 2P - 46/129 (35.7%)
3P - 33/113 (29.2%)

9. Tyrell Terry

Rim makes - 58/96 (60.4%)
Other 2P - 27/85 (31.8%)
3P - 65/152 (40.8%)

10. Nico Mannion

Rim makes - 40/74 (54.1%)
Other 2P - 52/132 (39.4%)
3P - 53/162 (32.7%)

11. Tyrese Haliburton

Rim makes - 46/62 (74.2%)
Other 2P - 26/60 (43.3%)
3P - 52/124 (41.9%)


My notes from that:

- Cole Anthony is just terribly inefficient. Barely attacks the rim, and distributes most of his shots between midrange and the 3, both of where he is below average. The only upside is that he draws fouls. I don't project him as a very efficient shotmaker in the NBA, especially on his first contract.

- Grant Riller is statistically the most impressive shotmaker from 3 levels. Absolutely elite finisher at the rim (70%) on very high volume. Decent efficiency from both midrange and 3, given volume. I don't understand why he's projected to be a 2nd rounder - defense and playmaking concerns aside, this guy will score in the NBA.

- Kira Lewis is an absolutely relentless attacker of the rim. 203 attempts at the rim, making 57% of them. That's more than ANY other guard in college, and more than even some of the premier bigs. For instance, he has more rim attempts than Toppin. Above average finisher at the rim, and okayish efficiency from the midrange and 3, given volume. This kid will score bigtime in the NBA.

- Tre Jones, as expected, doesn't project as a huge scorer straight away. Distributes his shot evenly across 3 levels, but with average efficiency. If his stroke improves though, he'll be a rotation guard in the NBA (possibly even a started), and I think a much better player than his brother. That's not a bad outcome at all.

- Haliburton is highly efficient, but on low volume. Barely attacks the rim, and doesn't have much of a midrange game either. I struggle to see as a dynamic scorer ever in the NBA. His upside is that of a smart 3&D PG who averages about 15 ppg mostly on CnS opportunities, and smart, opportunistic scoring.

- Mannion is unimpressive from the 3, but quite decent in midrange. Doesn't take too many shots at the rim at all.

- Maxey is clearly extremely raw, and will be a project.

- The one sleeper in there is Payton Pritchard, who projects to be an absolutely elite shooter from the 3 on high level, and is surprisingly decent at the rim as well.

- Tyrell Terry seems to be getting a bit of love of late. Could be one to look out for. Not much volume at the rim or midrange, but a good 3P shooter.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Great link GoK!

Very very useful in projecting scoring ability in the NBA at the three levels.

Just going to break that down for the best PG and PF prospects in the draft.

PGs first:

1. Cole Anthony

Rim makes - 37/59 (53.6%)
Other 2P - 45/135 (33.3%)
3P - 49/141 (34.8%)

2. Grant Riller

Rim makes - 108/153 (70.6%)
Other 2P - 65/162 (40.2%)
3P - 47/129 (36.4%)

3. Malachi Fynn

Rim makes - 60/88 (68.2%)
Other 2P - 47/121 (38.8%)
3P - 74/201 (36.8%)

4. Payton Pritchard

Rim makes - 92/153 (60.1%)
Other 2P - 36/97 (37.1%)
3P - 88/212 (41.5%)

5. Devon Dotson

Rim makes - 123/192 (64.1%)
Other 2P - 17/69 (24.6%)
3P - 35/115 (30.4%)

6. Tre Jones

Rim makes - 61/113 (54%)
Other 2P - 62/162 (38.3%)
3P - 39/108 (36.1%)

7. Kira Lewis

Rim makes - 117/203 (57.6%)
Other 2P - 33/93 (35.5%)
3P - 56/154 (36.4%)

8. Tyrese Maxey

Rim makes - 71/109 (65.1%)
Other 2P - 46/129 (35.7%)
3P - 33/113 (29.2%)

9. Tyrell Terry

Rim makes - 58/96 (60.4%)
Other 2P - 27/85 (31.8%)
3P - 65/152 (40.8%)

10. Nico Mannion

Rim makes - 40/74 (54.1%)
Other 2P - 52/132 (39.4%)
3P - 53/162 (32.7%)

11. Tyrese Haliburton

Rim makes - 46/62 (74.2%)
Other 2P - 26/60 (43.3%)
3P - 52/124 (41.9%)


My notes from that:

- Cole Anthony is just terribly inefficient. Barely attacks the rim, and distributes most of his shots between midrange and the 3, both of where he is below average. The only upside is that he draws fouls. I don't project him as a very efficient shotmaker in the NBA, especially on his first contract.

- Grant Riller is statistically the most impressive shotmaker from 3 levels. Absolutely elite finisher at the rim (70%) on very high volume. Decent efficiency from both midrange and 3, given volume. I don't understand why he's projected to be a 2nd rounder - defense and playmaking concerns aside, this guy will score in the NBA.

- Kira Lewis is an absolutely relentless attacker of the rim. 203 attempts at the rim, making 57% of them. That's more than ANY other guard in college, and more than even some of the premier bigs. For instance, he has more rim attempts than Toppin. Above average finisher at the rim, and okayish efficiency from the midrange and 3, given volume. This kid will score bigtime in the NBA.

- Tre Jones, as expected, doesn't project as a huge scorer straight away. Distributes his shot evenly across 3 levels, but with average efficiency. If his stroke improves though, he'll be a rotation guard in the NBA (possibly even a started), and I think a much better player than his brother. That's not a bad outcome at all.

- Haliburton is highly efficient, but on low volume. Barely attacks the rim, and doesn't have much of a midrange game either. I struggle to see as a dynamic scorer ever in the NBA. His upside is that of a smart 3&D PG who averages about 15 ppg mostly on CnS opportunities, and smart, opportunistic scoring.

- Mannion is unimpressive from the 3, but quite decent in midrange. Doesn't take too many shots at the rim at all.

- Maxey is clearly extremely raw, and will be a project.

- The one sleeper in there is Payton Pritchard, who projects to be an absolutely elite shooter from the 3 on high level, and is surprisingly decent at the rim as well.

- Tyrell Terry seems to be getting a bit of love of late. Could be one to look out for. Not much volume at the rim or midrange, but a good 3P shooter.

I have to say man, Brilliant post. Very in depth and thorough analysis too. Pretty much agree on all points. I'm not sure what Jones' Big board will prioritize. But I think your list is on point!

[Ghost of Kleine]

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Just to kill some more time...lol. Some interesting thoughts on how the draft could play out, percieved values of prospects, potential fits, etc.

Also:

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[Ghost of Kleine]

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29021183/teams-join-push-nba-move-draft-date-back?platform=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Thoughts??

[RedIndian]

1. Jaden McDaniels

Rim makes - 38/68 (55.9%)
Other 2P - 55/141 (39%)
3P - 43/127 (33.9%)

2. Patrick Williams

Rim makes - 53/85 (62.4%)
Other 2P - 26/72 (36.1%)
3P - 16/50 (32%)

3. Paul Reed

Rim makes - 114/172 (66.3%)
Other 2P - 51/126 (40.5%)
3P - 15/51 (29.4%)

4. Reggie Perry

Rim makes - 112/160 (70%)
Other 2P - 48/135 (35.6%)
3P - 23/71 (32.4%)

5. Killian Tillie

Rim makes - 56/78 (71.8%)
Other 2P - 31/62 (50%)
3P - 36/90 (40%)

6. Tyler Bey

Rim makes - 82/124 (66.1%)
Other 2P - 45/109 (41.3%)
3P - 13/31(41.9%)

7. Precious Achiuwa

Rim makes - 148/231 (64.1%)
Other 2P - 21/98 (21.4%)
3P - 13/40 (32.5%)

8. Jalen Smith

Rim makes - 114/158 (72.2%)
Other 2P - 22/67 (32.8%)
3P - 32/87 (36.8%)

9. Isaiah Stewart

Rim makes - 134/193 (69.4%)
Other 2P - 53/124 (42.7%)
3P - 5/20 (20%)

10. Obi Toppin

Rim makes - 167/202 (82.7%)
Other 2P - 46/103 (44.7%)
3P - 32/82 (39%)

11. Xavier Tillman

Rim makes - 129/179 (72.1%)
Other 2P - 23/71 (32.4%)
3P - 13/50 (26%)


My notes:

- Toppin is the clear standout here, with elite percentages across the board. I have concerns about his defense at the NBA level (which I'm convinced will be below average), but pair him with a nice PG, and he'll be a 20 ppg scorer not too far away.

- The rest of the bunch is frankly uninspiring. My favourite pick of the lot is Paul Reed for a number of reasons. 6'9 with a 7 foot plus wingspan, above average athleticism and a terrific knack of playing defense. Kid just eats up a huge amount of space with his length and light-footedness both on the perimeter and near the rim. Think Ibaka-lite. On offense, this kid has shown something new every year in college. Barely shot the three in his first season, and struggled at the line (57%). This year, he's shooting 73% at the line, and extended his range out to the three (although he only shot 29%). But his most interesting trait on offense is his ability to put the ball on the floor and make plays at the rim. Kid is shooting 66% at the rim on high volume, and a solid 40% on midrange too. I think there's a lot of potential in him to be an Ibaka-cum-Siakam lite player.

- Jalen Smith should be a nice player, but he'll be a center. Think Thomas Bryant with slightly better shotblocking ability.

- Isaiah Stewart projects as a good PnR big, but will almost exclusively play center in the NBA.

- Tyler Bey will be valuable as a defender, but expect very little on offense. Very low volume on all categories.

- Patrick Williams again has average efficiency on average volume. I wonder if he'd been better served returning to college for another year, and putting up a stronger body of work. There is some skill and talent in him, but I worry about upside given hid average length and athleticism.

- Achiuwa and McDaniels are interesting, but very raw, and will be projects.

- Sleeper picks are Reggie Perry and Xavier Tillman, who'll both go in the 2nd round, but could be good, smart bench bigs.

[Walt_Uoob]

1. Jaden McDaniels

Rim makes - 38/68 (55.9%)
Other 2P - 55/141 (39%)
3P - 43/127 (33.9%)

2. Patrick Williams

Rim makes - 53/85 (62.4%)
Other 2P - 26/72 (36.1%)
3P - 16/50 (32%)

3. Paul Reed

Rim makes - 114/172 (66.3%)
Other 2P - 51/126 (40.5%)
3P - 15/51 (29.4%)

4. Reggie Perry

Rim makes - 112/160 (70%)
Other 2P - 48/135 (35.6%)
3P - 23/71 (32.4%)

5. Killian Tillie

Rim makes - 56/78 (71.8%)
Other 2P - 31/62 (50%)
3P - 36/90 (40%)

6. Tyler Bey

Rim makes - 82/124 (66.1%)
Other 2P - 45/109 (41.3%)
3P - 13/31(41.9%)

7. Precious Achiuwa

Rim makes - 148/231 (64.1%)
Other 2P - 21/98 (21.4%)
3P - 13/40 (32.5%)

8. Jalen Smith

Rim makes - 114/158 (72.2%)
Other 2P - 22/67 (32.8%)
3P - 32/87 (36.8%)

9. Isaiah Stewart

Rim makes - 134/193 (69.4%)
Other 2P - 53/124 (42.7%)
3P - 5/20 (20%)

10. Obi Toppin

Rim makes - 167/202 (82.7%)
Other 2P - 46/103 (44.7%)
3P - 32/82 (39%)

11. Xavier Tillman

Rim makes - 129/179 (72.1%)
Other 2P - 23/71 (32.4%)
3P - 13/50 (26%)


My notes:

- Toppin is the clear standout here, with elite percentages across the board. I have concerns about his defense at the NBA level (which I'm convinced will be below average), but pair him with a nice PG, and he'll be a 20 ppg scorer not too far away.

- The rest of the bunch is frankly uninspiring. My favourite pick of the lot is Paul Reed for a number of reasons. 6'9 with a 7 foot plus wingspan, above average athleticism and a terrific knack of playing defense. Kid just eats up a huge amount of space with his length and light-footedness both on the perimeter and near the rim. Think Ibaka-lite. On offense, this kid has shown something new every year in college. Barely shot the three in his first season, and struggled at the line (57%). This year, he's shooting 73% at the line, and extended his range out to the three (although he only shot 29%). But his most interesting trait on offense is his ability to put the ball on the floor and make plays at the rim. Kid is shooting 66% at the rim on high volume, and a solid 40% on midrange too. I think there's a lot of potential in him to be an Ibaka-cum-Siakam lite player.

- Jalen Smith should be a nice player, but he'll be a center. Think Thomas Bryant with slightly better shotblocking ability.

- Isaiah Stewart projects as a good PnR big, but will almost exclusively play center in the NBA.

- Tyler Bey will be valuable as a defender, but expect very little on offense. Very low volume on all categories.

- Patrick Williams again has average efficiency on average volume. I wonder if he'd been better served returning to college for another year, and putting up a stronger body of work. There is some skill and talent in him, but I worry about upside given hid average length and athleticism.

- Achiuwa and McDaniels are interesting, but very raw, and will be projects.

- Sleeper picks are Reggie Perry and Xavier Tillman, who'll both go in the 2nd round, but could be good, smart bench bigs.

What is your read on Killian Tillie from this? He's the only 70/50/40 guy on the list, but volume is low. Is he like the forward version of Halliburton?

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[RedIndian]

In some sense, yes. Though Haliburton has NBA athleticism and elite length, which means he should be a decent defender in the league.

Can't say the same about Tillie, who might be like the C/PF version of Ty Jerome - skilled and talented, but perhaps just not enough athleticism or foot speed to stay in the NBA, especially on defense.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

If we don't have a playoff and a championship, then shouldn't the draft order be totally random?

[bwgood77]

If we don't have a playoff and a championship, then shouldn't the draft order be totally random?

It's always based on record, not on playoff performance anyway. They will likely just treat the standings as final. Typically you might kind of have a problem with some non WC playoff teams having better records than some EC playoff teams, so with no playoffs, it would make more sense to go just by record, but that's not the case this year.

[RedIndian]

Another guy to look out for as a sleeper is Immanuel Quickley. 6'3 SG with a 6'10 wingspan.

Shooting over 40% from 3 and over 90% from the line, both on really good volume.

Should be able to be a good bench scorer immediately. Not much of a playmaker though.

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[Ghost of Kleine]

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This is BIG NEWS!
Isiah Todd is a tremendous talent, And would be an absolutely outstanding fit beside Ayton. If we were ever lucky enough to draft him, We'd have a core with real dynasty potential. I don't care what anyone says.........

He's one of 5 Elite prospects for 2021 on my draft dream list:
1- Jalen Green or *( Terrence Clark).
2-*** Isiah Todd. ( I might have him #1 on my big board soon, IF he can get stronger and tighten his handle a bit. But for now, he's no lower than two at worst.

3- Ibou Dianko Badji.
4- Jonathan Kuminga.
5- Jalen Johnson.

If we could somehow luck into drafting him, We'd then have a core to give us a potential dynasty. It's because of the fact that
This kid has immense Kevin Durantpotential. He's already 6'10+ with a 7 ft. Wingspan and a 8'11 standing reach. The game is just so effortless for him too. Here's a quick reminder of his ridiculous potential and talent.

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And this:

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He absolutely needs to be one of our top targets once he declares or enters the draft. To not pursue him would be gross negligence and/or a travesty.

[Ghost of Kleine]

And for those who prefer Emoni Bates.

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Also, Not that we need a center with already having Ayton. But how crazy is this Victor Wembanmaya kid at 7'2 and with a 7'8- 7'9 wingspan. And he's only 15 yrs old. Could he be another Gobert???

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[WeekapaugGroove]

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If the suns don't jump to top 4 I'd absolutely be down to trade that pick for kennard. If they do jump to the top 4 I'd trade the pick for someone better than kennard. I didn't like last year's draft but I somehow like this one less.

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[Wilber85]

What if suns get

#1

or

#2

or

#3

What do you do?

[Ghost of Kleine]

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If the suns don't jump to top 4 I'd absolutely be down to trade that pick for kennard. If they do jump to the top 4 I'd trade the pick for someone better than kennard. I didn't like last year's draft but I somehow like this one less.

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Pretty good stuff honestly. If we don't end up in the top 4 of the draft, I'd for my part look to simply trade back for additional assets perhaps. Maybe to a team with multiple picks ( one in the mid to late first, And a 2nd rounder). Then look to fill our bench with low cost controlled contracts and talent. Perhaps we could trade back with a team like Minnesota or Boston or Dallas. This would also allow us to address both the backup guard and 3 & D big we need for roster depth.

With Minnesota-

Our 10th pick for Minnys' 16th and 33rd pick. Then with the 16, We could draft Riller. and at 33, Killian Tillie or Amyr Sylla.

With Boston-

Our 10th pick for their 17th and 26th pick.
- At 17, We can take Riller or Maledon. Then at 26, We can draft Jalen Smith or Patrick Williams?

With Dallas-

Our 10th pick for their 18th and 31st pick.
-At 18, We can take Jaden McDaniels (* Oubres' eventual replacement), Which would then allow us to more easily trade him for Gordon, or Markannen potentially. And then we can draft Tyrell Terry or Ashton Hagans at 31?

Or we can take Kira Lewis at 18, And then Amyr Sylla or Killian Tillie or Xavier Tillman at 31.

Or We Could take Pokusevski and then Tyrell Terry at 31.

The overall point is that we could have many better options for adding quality low cost depth to our bench, in a trade back scenario. And that would be a big help to our potential salary concerns heading into next season with a reduced cap.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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?s=19 . Oneyka Okungwu is in elite company.

[Ghost of Kleine]

What if suns get

#1

or

#2

or

#3

What do you do?

Good question man.

IF we were to land at-

1-
I Would of course shop it for the best deal possible ( hopefully a veteran and additional assets)???

Deals I would consider would be:
Phoenix/Minnesota:
For Culver/ And the 16th pick.

Phoenix/New York:
The #1 pick for either the 6th pick and the 27th pick. At 6, Take Hayes. At 27, Take Jalen Smith or Amyr Sylla. *** Or trade for Dennis Smith Jr./ the 27th pick( take Jalen Smith or **Tyrell Terry perhaps) And Dallas's unprotected 2021 pick. Then in 2021 look to combine our pick and Dallas' pick to move up in that draft for an elite prospect.

Phoenix/ Chicago:
Oubre/ and the #1 for Markannen / and the 7th pick. (* At 7 take one of Avdija, Haliburton or Riller). Fill remaining gaps in free agency.

Phoenix/ Orlando:
Oubre/ the #1 for Gordon and the 16th pick. **( at 16 take Riller or Maledon or Cole Anthony If he falls.

*** Otherwise, IF no good deals available, At #1, I would take Toppin for a big, Or Melo Ball or Killian Hayes for a guard.

2- Toppin ( Big) or Ball for ( guard).

3- Ssme as option 1 or 2 honestly. So basically, my preference aside from trading back for additional assets, would be:

1- Toppin.
2- Ball.
3- Avdija.

Ultimately, I'd like to use this draft to load up on bench depth by trading back in a two for one type of deal potentially.

[WeekapaugGroove]

What if suns get

#1

or

#2

or

#3

What do you do?

I'd try to trade the pick. If you can't find a buyer then I guess you pick one the guards and hope it works out. This might be my least favorite class ever.

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