The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[Blonde]

If I’m picking between 6’8” Ginobili or David Robinson v2, honestly I’m going with the big Ginobili. I know many here will disagree with that and that’s fine. I also worry about how Ayton’s career will age, and how injuries would impact his career. Both those factors also favor Luka to me. I like the team fit of Luka more too: If I had to rank the three things this team needs most it would be shooting, defense, and passing. Luka wins all three of those categories to me.

As an aside, I’m not sure that Doncic being described as smart is implicating anything other than that he is the best passer and has the best court vision in this class. Though there definitely are instances where the descriptors “smart” and “dumb” are supported by nothing other than prejudice. In the same vein, white players are always assumed to be unathletic and everyone acts blown away when Grayson Allen tests so well at the combine. I think Luka has underrated athleticism in the way he slides and moves his hips, and he has explosiveness with the ball in his hands at times. He’ll improve athletically just as Ayton will improve defensively.

DRob is known for his defense. Specially for his steals and blocks numbers. Ayton's stl% is horrible. I dont see the DRob comp except for eye test.

Doncic for me is like Joe Johnson, thus the 6'8" gino comp

DRob is just the comp I see the most. I can’t think of an all time great big who wasn’t good on defense. Maybe some of the 60’s/70’s guys that I’m not as knowledgeable about? I guess more athletic KAT would be the upside but I don’t think Ayton will ever shoot like KAT. I actually do think Ayton can become a good defender but that doesn’t change my stance much.

[bigfoot]

This again is a real worry for Ayton over the course of his career. As he ages he will naturally become heavier and slower. Already being questioned on defense if he can't cover the perimeter as a big man he's out of the league. I think Doncic is likely to have a larger window of stardom.

Ayton is mobile. Yet, his bad defense has mostly been atribbuted to playing out of position and having to defend at the perimeter. Well, guess what, defending at the perimeter will be 50% of his job defensively.

That's why I said in an earlier post that he will understand soon enough he is not a 4. And what exactly proves this article based again on a single player's history ? Is Boban Marianovich out of the league as mentioned in the article ?

It's just silly when people try to prove a point based on evidence for a single player as is the case with Green above..nevermind that he plays the majority of the time at PF...

Roy Hibbert was a two-time all-star out of the league by age 30. If your hope is that Ayton is another Boban Marianovich then you should definitely be on the Doncic train.

[Qwigglez]

KAT had the luxury of having a dream squad on his college team, including WCS who was a junior or senior. Where as for Ayton, I'm not sure anyone from his UofA team is going to make it to the NBA, correct me if I'm wrong here guys. I'm not worried about the longevity of Ayton's career because he possesses solid post moves and has a smooth jumper. He has the athleticism of Amare in his prime, but that combined with the ferocity of Amare were his greatest strengths. I don't think Ayton relies specifically on his athleticism when playing. Actually think that hurts Ayton, because he doesn't utilize 100% of his uber athleticism.

[sunsbg]

Ayton is mobile. Yet, his bad defense has mostly been atribbuted to playing out of position and having to defend at the perimeter. Well, guess what, defending at the perimeter will be 50% of his job defensively.

That's why I said in an earlier post that he will understand soon enough he is not a 4. And what exactly proves this article based again on a single player's history ? Is Boban Marianovich out of the league as mentioned in the article ?

It's just silly when people try to prove a point based on evidence for a single player as is the case with Green above..nevermind that he plays the majority of the time at PF...

Roy Hibbert was a two-time all-star out of the league by age 30. If your hope is that Ayton is another Boban Marianovich then you should definitely be on the Doncic train.

LOL, not sure why I even care to answer this, but here is it..
Obviously I don't hope Ayton is another Boban(what a surprise). Just saying that there are other players taller than Draymond Green still playing in the league(another surprise), so no point to conclude anything from one player being out of the league.

[bigfoot]

If I’m picking between 6’8” Ginobili or David Robinson v2, honestly I’m going with the big Ginobili. I know many here will disagree with that and that’s fine. I also worry about how Ayton’s career will age, and how injuries would impact his career. Both those factors also favor Luka to me. I like the team fit of Luka more too: If I had to rank the three things this team needs most it would be shooting, defense, and passing. Luka wins all three of those categories to me.

As an aside, I’m not sure that Doncic being described as smart is implicating anything other than that he is the best passer and has the best court vision in this class. Though there definitely are instances where the descriptors “smart” and “dumb” are supported by nothing other than prejudice. In the same vein, white players are always assumed to be unathletic and everyone acts blown away when Grayson Allen tests so well at the combine. I think Luka has underrated athleticism in the way he slides and moves his hips, and he has explosiveness with the ball in his hands at times. He’ll improve athletically just as Ayton will improve defensively.

DRob is known for his defense. Specially for his steals and blocks numbers. Ayton's stl% is horrible. I dont see the DRob comp except for eye test.

Doncic for me is like Joe Johnson, thus the 6'8" gino comp

DRob is just the comp I see the most. I can’t think of an all time great big who wasn’t good on defense. Maybe some of the 60’s/70’s guys that I’m not as knowledgeable about? I guess more athletic KAT would be the upside but I don’t think Ayton will ever shoot like KAT. I actually do think Ayton can become a good defender but that doesn’t change my stance much.

Ayton ceiling is probably Kevin Love. That's pretty good but Love couldn't bring his team to a championship with the Wolves and is a third option on the Cav's championship team. I think Doncic is the definition of a superstar that wills his team to the next level. Either way the Suns improve but I would rather have the guy with fire-in-his-belly. No one has ever questioned Doncic's motor.

[76ciology]

Post offense..

The league just empowers the drive too much it also lead to the perimeter shots being less challenged because defenders may sag off to prevent the drive.

In effect, you already lost the possession once you want to run it at the low post. It takes a lot of time to set it up. The entry pass is an obstacle course. And its a heavily challenged shot. The defense wont double and if they do, the center will have to throw another pass across the court that is again an obstacle course for deflections. When the shooter catch it, it may be covered or have only a few seconds to take the shot off.

Post offense may not be bad. But the league has designed it to be the worst option. There are far better options on offense at the perimeter or drives. Currently the trend that is being talked about is the mid range since teams have tried to abandon this zone on D to take away 3s and drives

[bigfoot]

That's why I said in an earlier post that he will understand soon enough he is not a 4. And what exactly proves this article based again on a single player's history ? Is Boban Marianovich out of the league as mentioned in the article ?

It's just silly when people try to prove a point based on evidence for a single player as is the case with Green above..nevermind that he plays the majority of the time at PF...

Roy Hibbert was a two-time all-star out of the league by age 30. If your hope is that Ayton is another Boban Marianovich then you should definitely be on the Doncic train.

LOL, not sure why I even care to answer this, but here is it..
Obviously I don't hope Ayton is another Boban(what a surprise). Just saying that there are other players taller than Draymond Green still playing in the league(another surprise), so no point to conclude anything from one player being out of the league.

No but it does point out that Hibbert couldn't get time in the wide open Western Conference as a defensive center. Couple that with the fact the neither Houston or GSW has a center that was drafted in the top #10. The Eastern conference is moving to the wide open game with both Cleveland and Boston sporting more small ball line ups. Sure I think Ayton will move us into the playoffs but I just don't see him bringing us a championship with the current style of NBA play. I don't expect that style to change either. We will see more three point specialists, better passers, and all-around defenders instead of the classic low post center.

[sunsbg]

Roy Hibbert was a two-time all-star out of the league by age 30. If your hope is that Ayton is another Boban Marianovich then you should definitely be on the Doncic train.

LOL, not sure why I even care to answer this, but here is it..
Obviously I don't hope Ayton is another Boban(what a surprise). Just saying that there are other players taller than Draymond Green still playing in the league(another surprise), so no point to conclude anything from one player being out of the league.

No but it does point out that Hibbert couldn't get time in the wide open Western Conference as a defensive center. Couple that with the fact the neither Houston or GSW has a center that was drafted in the top #10. The Eastern conference is moving to the wide open game with both Cleveland and Boston sporting more small ball line ups. Sure I think Ayton will move us into the playoffs but I just don't see him bringing us a championship with the current style of NBA play. I don't expect that style to change either. We will see more three point specialists, better passers, and all-around defenders instead of the classic low post center.

Fair enough. I'm divided between the two, just don't agree the game has changed that much, that one would take a much lesser player because of the position. Personally I will take David Robinson over taller Ginobilli(or Draymond Green) any day of the week. Just using a comparison from a previous post, not saying they are accurate.

[bigfoot]

More food for thought ... in the past 20 years these players have been the number 1 draft picks as centers

Michael Olowokandi
Kwame Brown
Yao Ming
Dwight Howard
Andrew Bogut
Andrea Bargnani
Greg Oden
Anthony Davis
Karl-Anthony Towns

of those nine picks only four have done anything decent (Ming, Howard, Davis, and KAT). Ming and Oden had short careers because of injury.

The other eleven picks over that last 20 years have been

Elton Brand
Keyon Martin
Lebron James
Derrick Rose
Blake Griffin
John Wall
Kyrie Irving
Anthony Bennett
Andrew Wiggins
Ben Simmons
Markelle Fultz

Really only Bennett has been a bust. Also you may notice I cut out players like Duncan and Robinson (pre-1998), but both of them were four year players ... not the one-and-dones we have to evaluate now-a-days.

[Superhuman]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nba-abandoned-roy-hibbert/

This again is a real worry for Ayton over the course of his career. As he ages he will naturally become heavier and slower. Already being questioned on defense if he can't cover the perimeter as a big man he's out of the league. I think Doncic is likely to have a larger window of stardom.

Using Hibbert's career to judge Ayton's trajectory is a terrible comparison. Hibbert was slow as molasses and only benefited from the verticality rule. Ayton is agile, a freak athlete, and has a complete offensive arsenal. Why do you assume Ayton will become heavier and slower as he ages? He has the body type and athleticism of David Robinson, he's not Eddy Curry.

IMO, a Doncic/Booker/Jackson lineup honestly feels like the Dragic/Bledsoe/IT experiment, but the wings edition. It's easy to say things like, "They'll play off each other and make life easier for each other". It's another thing to have it actually happen. They all need the ball in their hands. Having a post presence down low who can also go out to 3 point range will only opens things up for Booker and Jackson. And if we're playing the warriors, who's going to guard Curry and Durant? Jackson can't guard both of them at the same time. And I might be crazy(the jury's still out), but I feel like Ayton could keep up with GSW's small ball lineup. I think his lack of perimeter defense has been overstated. I always thought he was decent at defending the perimeter and switching on smaller players.

[bigfoot]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nba-abandoned-roy-hibbert/

This again is a real worry for Ayton over the course of his career. As he ages he will naturally become heavier and slower. Already being questioned on defense if he can't cover the perimeter as a big man he's out of the league. I think Doncic is likely to have a larger window of stardom.

Using Hibbert's career to judge Ayton's trajectory is a terrible comparison. Hibbert was slow as molasses and only benefited from the verticality rule. Ayton is agile, a freak athlete, and has a complete offensive arsenal. Why do you assume Ayton will become heavier and slower as he ages? He has the body type and athleticism of David Robinson, he's not Eddy Curry.

He has the body type of Dwight Howard but has not shown the ability to handle rim protection duties like Dwight. Sure Ayton is better at face-up shooting and free throw shooting but was torched on the perimeter in the Buffalo game by non-NBA guards. Ayton will be put into wringer every night by switches between the point guard and center. Those NBA-level point guards will abuse him all day long.

Having a post presence down low who can also go out to 3 point range will only opens things up for Booker and Jackson.

Ayton doesn't have a proven post game against NBA talent. In fact one of his weakness is he right hand dominant on his shot and weak with his left hand. Watching him dunk over a bunch of 6'8" college level players who are not as athletic does not mean he has a post game that translates to the NBA. Also, analytics shows that posting up is one of the worst shots in the NBA and rewards .78 points per attempt. It's layups and three pointers now-a-days!

And if we're playing the warriors, who's going to guard Curry and Durant? Jackson can't guard both of them at the same time.

Father time will handle Curry and Durant !!

[JMac1]

When did Ayton become a classic low post only player? He is Amare with 19 year old Shaq’s body!

[D3ko]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nba-abandoned-roy-hibbert/

This again is a real worry for Ayton over the course of his career. As he ages he will naturally become heavier and slower. Already being questioned on defense if he can't cover the perimeter as a big man he's out of the league. I think Doncic is likely to have a larger window of stardom.

Using Hibbert's career to judge Ayton's trajectory is a terrible comparison. Hibbert was slow as molasses and only benefited from the verticality rule. Ayton is agile, a freak athlete, and has a complete offensive arsenal. Why do you assume Ayton will become heavier and slower as he ages? He has the body type and athleticism of David Robinson, he's not Eddy Curry.

IMO, a Doncic/Booker/Jackson lineup honestly feels like the Dragic/Bledsoe/IT experiment, but the wings edition. It's easy to say things like, "They'll play off each other and make life easier for each other". It's another thing to have it actually happen. They all need the ball in their hands. Having a post presence down low who can also go out to 3 point range will only opens things up for Booker and Jackson. And if we're playing the warriors, who's going to guard Curry and Durant? Jackson can't guard both of them at the same time. And I might be crazy(the jury's still out), but I feel like Ayton could keep up with GSW's small ball lineup. I think his lack of perimeter defense has been overstated. I always thought he was decent at defending the perimeter and switching on smaller players.

Wait wait ... What? I cannot think any similarities between them.
3 Pg scorers is very different than a Pg a sg and a sf .
You should look what Utah has been doing this year.

A pg moving the team, passing, running and shooting more than ever.
A crazy sg scoring machine with one of the best catch and shoot movements in the league.
A high intensity sf , pick and roll player.

So think Rubio-Mitchell- inglés and realise what Phoenix could be .


I would forger about a big player opening the court unless is a high post big, with really good spacing and 3 point shoot. Horford

[kennydorglas]

The main against that 3PG experiment was their size.
This is not going to be a problem with our multiple playmaker's team

[Qwigglez]

So I see a lot of the pro-Doncic guys using the current teams in the Conference Finals as a reason why Ayton can't be successful because it doesn't follow the trend of versatile positionless players. I'm not sure I completely agree. Those teams (minus Boston) have future HOFers on their squad. Surround dominant bigs with versatile players could also be a recipe for success, that these teams may not be able to match. I would say the Pelicans sweeping the Blazers was a complete surprise, and the Sixers possibly could do better if they had surrounded Embiid with 3&D players. I don't feel KAT was properly utilized in the playoffs and that's likely the reason he is having issues with the Wolves franchise.

[Qwigglez]

If we want to create a positionless versatile team, we can do that with Ayton still. Go after Paul George in free agency and have Booker start at PG. Or have Knight start and have Paul George at the 4.

Booker / Knight
George / Reed
Jackson /Warren
Bender / Chriss
Ayton / Chandler

[Superhuman]

This again is a real worry for Ayton over the course of his career. As he ages he will naturally become heavier and slower. Already being questioned on defense if he can't cover the perimeter as a big man he's out of the league. I think Doncic is likely to have a larger window of stardom.

Using Hibbert's career to judge Ayton's trajectory is a terrible comparison. Hibbert was slow as molasses and only benefited from the verticality rule. Ayton is agile, a freak athlete, and has a complete offensive arsenal. Why do you assume Ayton will become heavier and slower as he ages? He has the body type and athleticism of David Robinson, he's not Eddy Curry.

He has the body type of Dwight Howard but has not shown the ability to handle rim protection duties like Dwight. Sure Ayton is better at face-up shooting and free throw shooting but was torched on the perimeter in the Buffalo game by non-NBA guards. Ayton will be put into wringer every night by switches between the point guard and center. Those NBA-level point guards will abuse him all day long.

Having a post presence down low who can also go out to 3 point range will only opens things up for Booker and Jackson.

Ayton doesn't have a proven post game against NBA talent. In fact one of his weakness is he right hand dominant on his shot and weak with his left hand. Watching him dunk over a bunch of 6'8" college level players who are not as athletic does not mean he has a post game that translates to the NBA. Also, analytics shows that posting up is one of the worst shots in the NBA and rewards .78 points per attempt. It's layups and three pointers now-a-days!

And if we're playing the warriors, who's going to guard Curry and Durant? Jackson can't guard both of them at the same time.

Father time will handle Curry and Durant !!

I agree, Ayton is not and will never be close to the rim protector Dwight is. But he's not Andrea Bargnani on the defensive end like some people are making him out to be. He will have to prove that he can be a good defender in the NBA. Just like how Doncic will have to prove he can hang with the pace and athleticism of the NBA.

And Ayton can do SO much more than just posting up. The stuff he can do on the offensive end all while being 19 years old and only having played basketball for five years is honestly terrifying.

[Superhuman]

This again is a real worry for Ayton over the course of his career. As he ages he will naturally become heavier and slower. Already being questioned on defense if he can't cover the perimeter as a big man he's out of the league. I think Doncic is likely to have a larger window of stardom.

Using Hibbert's career to judge Ayton's trajectory is a terrible comparison. Hibbert was slow as molasses and only benefited from the verticality rule. Ayton is agile, a freak athlete, and has a complete offensive arsenal. Why do you assume Ayton will become heavier and slower as he ages? He has the body type and athleticism of David Robinson, he's not Eddy Curry.

IMO, a Doncic/Booker/Jackson lineup honestly feels like the Dragic/Bledsoe/IT experiment, but the wings edition. It's easy to say things like, "They'll play off each other and make life easier for each other". It's another thing to have it actually happen. They all need the ball in their hands. Having a post presence down low who can also go out to 3 point range will only opens things up for Booker and Jackson. And if we're playing the warriors, who's going to guard Curry and Durant? Jackson can't guard both of them at the same time. And I might be crazy(the jury's still out), but I feel like Ayton could keep up with GSW's small ball lineup. I think his lack of perimeter defense has been overstated. I always thought he was decent at defending the perimeter and switching on smaller players.

Wait wait ... What? I cannot think any similarities between them.
3 Pg scorers is very different than a Pg a sg and a sf .
You should look what Utah has been doing this year.

A pg moving the team, passing, running and shooting more than ever.
A crazy sg scoring machine with one of the best catch and shoot movements in the league.
A high intensity sf , pick and roll player.

So think Rubio-Mitchell- inglés and realise what Phoenix could be .


I would forger about a big player opening the court unless is a high post big, with really good spacing and 3 point shoot. Horford

I understand what you mean. I wasn't necessarily saying they were all the the same types of players. I was just saying how I don't think a non traditional/ positionless style of basketball, like that 3PG lineup, can be as successful as it sounds, with the personell we have. A Doncic/Booker/Jackson lineup does have the potential to be something special, but I just feel like a duo of Ayton/Booker could be a poor man's version of Shaq and Kobe for the modern era, obviously without the defense. Either of those lineups would be fun as hell to watch, but obviously I'm favoring toward the traditional style of basketball.

[juanc]

You guys are talking about an Ayton-Booker PnR.. On paper it's great but when I see Ayton seting those picks I have to say I'm not impressed. Idon't know if it's a real issue and how fixable it is... But it really bothers how soft he is when he is setting that pick

[bigfoot]

So I see a lot of the pro-Doncic guys using the current teams in the Conference Finals as a reason why Ayton can't be successful because it doesn't follow the trend of versatile positionless players. I'm not sure I completely agree. Those teams (minus Boston) have future HOFers on their squad. Surround dominant bigs with versatile players could also be a recipe for success, that these teams may not be able to match. I would say the Pelicans sweeping the Blazers was a complete surprise, and the Sixers possibly could do better if they had surrounded Embiid with 3&D players. I don't feel KAT was properly utilized in the playoffs and that's likely the reason he is having issues with the Wolves franchise.

Again I will use the Nash/Amare/Marion Suns as an example. Most teams had a difficult time when Amare played center because he was faster but he was a defensive liability. Freak injuries and suspensions stopped us from getting by the best big man of all time in Tim Duncan. Still Nash was the engine of that team. No way we do as well without his leadership, court vision, BBIQ, and will-to-win. I don't see that in Ayton and do see it in Doncic. Ayton didn't show it in college and has a questionable defensive motor. There is no one questioning Doncic's motor ... maybe his athleticism but not his motor.