2024-25 Season Discussion and Speculation Part V

[sunsbg]

Still a good chance Suns don't make the play-in, so KD more likely to get traded in the offseason. Expecting to get what we gave for him being 2.5 years older while also overpaying for him to start with, is not realistic, but if he keeps his current play till season's end the return should be good.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Your feelings aside, its a garbage offer compared to what one of the younger teams like Houston or Dallas may offer in my opinion which is not feelings based.

But also depends upon what destinations he's amenable to go to if he gets traded at all this summer?

Without question.

I will say that although I'm not super excited by the player package coming back, I am very encouraged by the multiple picks aspect and see the value a bit differently as being solid and not at all garbage (IF the Houston and/or Dallas offers aren't on the table this summer. I see the value as this for us:
*** (I will note that I'm not taking back Wiggins multiple years under any circumstances unless Ware is coming back in the deal for us)!!!

- Rozier. Represents around a $26 million expiring contract for us.
- Robinson. Represents around a $19 million expiring contract for us.
- Nikola Jovic. A 6/10 solid faceup floor spacing big with som ball handling and playmaking potential.
- Jaime Jacquez. A 6'6 better defensive/worse offensive version of Grayson Allen.
- Miami picks............. MIA 25' 1st (8th pick), GS 25' 1st (21st pick), MIA 29' 1st. Three pretty solid 1sts. The 29 1st should be a relatively high lottery pick! That would give us at least two top 10 lottery picks and one average 1st. Good value for a 37-year-old aging, expiring KD. Also, Roziers' and Robinsons' expiring combined would give us upwards of $46 million in cap reduction to put us well under the 2nd apron. Lastly, although not high-end young talent, Jovic and Jacquez are still solid players with value on cost-controlled contracts that we could flip for other young talent and/or picks if we choose too.

From this lens, the value is good and malleable to create more cap space, assets, young talent infusion (through the 8th and 21st picks in this upcoming draft), and young cost controlled pieces that could be aggregated for other better fitting or more desirable options to help sustain our core around Booker/ Dunn/ Ighodaro (the guachos)!!

[mkot]

Wtf happened to the Kings? A couple seasons ago it seemed like they were about the turn the corner and start making the playoffs every year now they're back to being a bit of a mess.

I think they are a fun team to watch but made some major mistakes the last couple years that lead to this mess they are in. It's a shame because I think the core of Fox/Sabonis/Murray is promising. They just needed a star scorer either via trade or FA but they got DeMar DeRozan instead and he just ain't it. Him in the starting lineup not only instantly makes the team worse defensively, but also pushes my guy Keegan Murray up a spot at the 4 which is not his natural position. What's worse, they fired Mike Brown, which triggered the Fox trade and got Zach LaVine to make the Chicago Bulls of the West. I can't believe the Bulls find a sucker to take LaVine contract off their hands for free. There's a lot of pressure on the King's FO to make this trade work but LaVine and DeRozan just don't fit

[lilfishi22]

Read on Twitter

If they can add Jovic too then yeah I think I’d do this. Only if Houston doesn’t want KD for all our picks back plus Whitmore and Jabari.

That's a terrible offer and we would ignore it.

The Heat were interested in KD at the deadline and it was said that our FO asked for every positive asset from the Heat. "Everything". And that was with Jimmy Butler going to the Suns...imagine without him lol.

Not happening.

We would be stupid to ignore it. KD is 35 and on an expiring contract. Ware is a blue chip prospect that can be a franchise C for this team. The first rd picks can be used to draft some wing players to replace KD. Booker/Dunn/Ware plus good selections in the draft would do this team well.

And I don’t care what our FO asked for. We have the second dumbest FO in the NBA after the Mavs. That’s why a team with the highest payroll in NBA history is dog**** with zero draft picks and cap flexibility.

KD actually turning 37 in the off season. And I agree, while this may not be the absolute best offer, it has all the key assets of a package you're after for KD. Young, interesting prospect (Ware, yes throw in Jovic too), a couple of decent FRP's and expiring contracts to clean our books.

[lilfishi22]

Surprised to see AD is back for Dallas. Kind of thought they'd hold him out. I guess Gafford is expected back next week.

He is on the Nico Is Right train and I'm sure he doesn't want his debut game to be potentially his last game in the Mavs uniform.

They have a easier schedule compare to ours, the Kings however have as tough of a schedule as ours. They beat the Cavs but had since lost 3 in a row. They still have to play Thunder, Cavs, Pacers, Nuggets and Clippers, but then they also have Wizard and Hornet in between. And then the last game in the schedule is on our home court, that might be the game to decide who gets that last play-in spot.

Wtf happened to the Kings? A couple seasons ago it seemed like they were about the turn the corner and start making the playoffs every year now they're back to being a bit of a mess.

I think it's more of a case of they are who we thought they were, except for that one season where they found lightning in a bottle and took many teams by surprise with their offense. Essentially, they overachieved that one year. But digging just a layer deeper and you'll notice their elite offense in 22-23 was also held back by a 25th ranked defense which set their net rating at a good but not great 8th in the league. If you looked at their wins and losses that season, there were a lot of just beating up on teams they were suppose to beat but also not really consistently beating the good teams either. Then last season they kind of came back to Earth with an improved defense but also a pretty average offense and together made a slightly below average team.

To be a good team and going toe to toe with other really good teams in the league consistently, you either need an MVP calibre player or a pretty good defense. They had neither. A great offense will set a high enough baseline for wins because you'll beat a good number of bad to average teams on most nights but a poor defense will mean the better 2/5 of the league will probably match or out score you and give you a tough time on the defensive end.

[Ghost of Kleine]

That's a terrible offer and we would ignore it.

The Heat were interested in KD at the deadline and it was said that our FO asked for every positive asset from the Heat. "Everything". And that was with Jimmy Butler going to the Suns...imagine without him lol.

Not happening.

We would be stupid to ignore it. KD is 35 and on an expiring contract. Ware is a blue chip prospect that can be a franchise C for this team. The first rd picks can be used to draft some wing players to replace KD. Booker/Dunn/Ware plus good selections in the draft would do this team well.

And I don’t care what our FO asked for. We have the second dumbest FO in the NBA after the Mavs. That’s why a team with the highest payroll in NBA history is dog**** with zero draft picks and cap flexibility.

KD actually turned 37 in the offseason. And I agree, while this may not be the absolute best offer, it has all the key assets of a package you're after for KD. Young, interesting prospect (Ware, yes throw in Jovic too), a couple of decent FRP's and expiring contracts to clean our books.

Ware's coming back is premium value! But the GS 25' 1st is only the 21st pick, so meh value. This trade doesn't get it done! It's slightly better than solid only because of Ware. But seeing as how Miami obviously wouldn't include Ware coming back anyways, this offer becomes hot garbage. They'll instead need to include Jovic/ Jacquez/ MIA 25' 1st (8th pick)/ GS 25' 1st (21st pick) AND their 29' 1st on top of Rozirs' and Robinsons' xpirings to close this deal. Otherwise, we'll hang up the phone rather quickly!

[Ghost of Kleine]

Read on Twitter

[lilfishi22]

We would be stupid to ignore it. KD is 35 and on an expiring contract. Ware is a blue chip prospect that can be a franchise C for this team. The first rd picks can be used to draft some wing players to replace KD. Booker/Dunn/Ware plus good selections in the draft would do this team well.

And I don’t care what our FO asked for. We have the second dumbest FO in the NBA after the Mavs. That’s why a team with the highest payroll in NBA history is dog**** with zero draft picks and cap flexibility.

KD actually turned 37 in the offseason. And I agree, while this may not be the absolute best offer, it has all the key assets of a package you're after for KD. Young, interesting prospect (Ware, yes throw in Jovic too), a couple of decent FRP's and expiring contracts to clean our books.

Ware's coming back is premium value! But the GS 25' 1st is only the 21st pick, so meh value. This trade doesn't get it done! It's slightly better than solid only because of Ware. But seeing as how Miami obviously wouldn't include Ware coming back anyways, this offer becomes hot garbage. They'll instead need to include Jovic/ Jacquez/ MIA 25' 1st (8th pick)/ GS 25' 1st (21st pick) AND their 29' 1st on top of Rozirs' and Robinsons' xpirings to close this deal. Otherwise, we'll hang up the phone rather quickly!

You're not getting premium FRP's in a KD deal. We're ironically the cautionary tale of giving up premium draft capital for an aging player. The GS pick is fine to me but that 2031, who knows, good be bad could be good. No one is going to give you a surefire lotto pick (ie from a historically bad team) for KD at this point imo.

I don't think Miami is keen to move either their 8th pick nor Ware fwiw

[Revived]

Read on Twitter

Need this guy in a Suns jersey next season. His measurables are off the chart and he learned from an excellent coach in Spoelstra for one year too.

Imagine a front court with him, Dunn and another young wing that we can draft. Pair that with Booker and a secondary ball handler like Gillespie and that’s a young, athletic team that can defend well and be solid offensively.

If Ishbia’s dumb*** is hellbent on only trading KD and not Booker too then this is the best option for remainder of Book’s prime.

[Revived]

Would be nice if we can dump Beal to the Heat too but I don’t think it’s possible cause Heat already have big $$ contracts in Herro and Bam still on the books.

[Ghost of Kleine]

KD actually turned 37 in the offseason. And I agree, while this may not be the absolute best offer, it has all the key assets of a package you're after for KD. Young, interesting prospect (Ware, yes throw in Jovic too), a couple of decent FRP's and expiring contracts to clean our books.

Ware's coming back is premium value! But the GS 25' 1st is only the 21st pick, so meh value. This trade doesn't get it done! It's slightly better than solid only because of Ware. But seeing as how Miami obviously wouldn't include Ware coming back anyways, this offer becomes hot garbage. They'll instead need to include Jovic/ Jacquez/ MIA 25' 1st (8th pick)/ GS 25' 1st (21st pick) AND their 29' 1st on top of Rozirs' and Robinsons' xpirings to close this deal. Otherwise, we'll hang up the phone rather quickly!

You're not getting premium FRP's in a KD deal. We're ironically the cautionary tale of giving up premium draft capital for an aging player. The GS pick is fine to me but that 2031, who knows, good be bad could be good. No one is going to give you a surefire lotto pick (ie from a historically bad team) for KD at this point imo.

I don't think Miami is keen to move either their 8th pick nor Ware fwiw

Based on what legitimate information aside from you're subjective opinion?

If you don't think the Heat's front office would be willing to give up the 8th pick for KD in interest of trying to compete again and not only maximize Herros' and Bams' prime years while also trying to quickly move past the utter embarrassment of how bad they've been after deciding to trade Butler, then I just don't know what to tell you.

Do you really think that the Heat's front office wants to suck this bad? Would Riley? Would Mickey Arison? Would they be ok with looking like they lost the battle from giving up Butler and being mediocre or worse?

What rookie around the 8th pick do you really think would offer the same level of competitive impact that KD would for them?

It's just ludicrous to think they'd pivot to prioritizing being bad and rebuilding over trying to contend and look like they won the Butler fiasco by removing him. Also the GS 1st would be ok for you in a KD trade man? You do realize that pick is currently the 21st pick right?

Do you think that KDs' value is a late 1st in an average draft honestly? What do you think would happen to a GM that decided to trade KD for a late 1st as a pick value return? They'd probably be fired on the spot.

And the Miami 31' 1st might be bad?........... based off of what exactly? Look at the age of their current players. That pick being 6 yrs out currently. Adebayo would be 33 yrs old, and Herro would be 31 yrs old.

And neither might even be on their roster by then too ( aside from Ware and some young players). So how good do you think they'll actually be in 31?

Lastly, while I can agree that Ware is unlikely, I think they'd have no issues whatsoever giving up the 8th pick in an average draft for KD who's still putting up near MVP level numbers and still looks fairly unstoppable too. And knowing that he'd likely resign there.

To claim that a team wouldn't be willing to give up a premium pick ( first for KD in a trade) especially one in Miami's situation (trying to save face post Butler trade) is just wild to me man.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Read on Twitter

Do they even have the contracts too match? What could they even give up as a 2nd apron team? I'm just not seeing the logistics of this being possible or even plausible honestly.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Read on Twitter

[lilfishi22]

Ware's coming back is premium value! But the GS 25' 1st is only the 21st pick, so meh value. This trade doesn't get it done! It's slightly better than solid only because of Ware. But seeing as how Miami obviously wouldn't include Ware coming back anyways, this offer becomes hot garbage. They'll instead need to include Jovic/ Jacquez/ MIA 25' 1st (8th pick)/ GS 25' 1st (21st pick) AND their 29' 1st on top of Rozirs' and Robinsons' xpirings to close this deal. Otherwise, we'll hang up the phone rather quickly!

You're not getting premium FRP's in a KD deal. We're ironically the cautionary tale of giving up premium draft capital for an aging player. The GS pick is fine to me but that 2031, who knows, good be bad could be good. No one is going to give you a surefire lotto pick (ie from a historically bad team) for KD at this point imo.

I don't think Miami is keen to move either their 8th pick nor Ware fwiw

Based on what legitimate information aside from you're subjective opinion?

If you don't think the Heat's front office would be willing to give up the 8th pick for KD in interest of trying to compete again and not only maximize Herros' and Bams' prime years while also trying to quickly move past the utter embarrassment of how bad they've been after deciding to trade Butler, then I just don't know what to tell you.

Do you really think that the Heat's front office wants to suck this bad? Would Riley? Would Mickey Arison? Would they be ok with looking like they lost the battle from giving up Butler and being mediocre or worse?

What rookie around the 8th pick do you really think would offer the same level of competitive impact that KD would for them?

It's just ludicrous to think they'd pivot to prioritizing being bad and rebuilding over trying to contend and look like they won the Butler fiasco by removing him. Also the GS 1st would be ok for you in a KD trade man? You do realize that pick is currently the 21st pick right?

Do you think that KDs' value is a late 1st in an average draft honestly? What do you think would happen to a GM that decided to trade KD for a late 1st as a pick value return? They'd probably be fired on the spot.

And the Miami 31' 1st might be bad?........... based off of what exactly? Look at the age of their current players. That pick being 6 yrs out currently. Adebayo would be 33 yrs old, and Herro would be 31 yrs old.

And neither might even be on their roster by then too ( aside from Ware and some young players). So how good do you think they'll actually be in 31?

Lastly, while I can agree that Ware is unlikely, I think they'd have no issues whatsoever giving up the 8th pick in an average draft for KD who's still putting up near MVP level numbers and still looks fairly unstoppable too. And knowing that he'd likely resign there.

To claim that a team wouldn't be willing to give up a premium pick ( first for KD in a trade) especially one in Miami's situation (trying to save face post Butler trade) is just wild to me man.

I don't think they are willing to give up the farm for KD. I don't think that's controversial a take at all. I also don't think they are prioritising being bad. On path to being competitive is to trade for a KD this summer with assets but another could also be 2026 free agency where they may be able to get KD without giving up anything.

And to be clear, when I say premium FRP, I'm thinking top 7. Something in the mid to late lotto would be a good FRP and anything in the 20's would just be a FRP. We might be able to squeeze a good lotto pick but I doubt the Heat would give up the 8th pick for a 37 year old KD. If that pick drops and ends up being worse than 8, they could potentially give that up over giving up Ware but I think they keep the pick if it's 8 or higher.

I don't know what the Miami 1st in 2031 is going to look like, nobody knows. They could hit over the next year couple of years with some great signings or trades and be back at it again but Miami has always been a very competitive team without long stretches (ie 3+ seasons stretches of tanking) and I would probably think they will be closer to a competitive team than some lotto team. Bam and Herro would probably be in the back end of their primes but still in their prime.

I think at the end of the day, as good as KD still is, Riley has never been a big gambler (unlike Ishbia). KD might still be elite for another couple of years, maybe into his late 30's like Bron but I don't see Riley putting his faith and the good assets he has for that pretty small window. And he'll need to extend him as well.

[lilfishi22]

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Do they even have the contracts too match? What could they even give up as a 2nd apron team? I'm just not seeing the logistics of this being possible or even plausible honestly.

What a hack. Both teams are well over the 2nd apron and Boston is projected to be even deeper into the 2nd apron this offseason. It was one of my key concerns for Boston because I had seen they traded for and subsequently extended dudes like Holiday, White and KP on massive extensions. It was a matter of time before it catches up to them. You also have Tatum jumping onto the veteran supermax next offseason so that's going to be $54m. Boston can't package any players and no one, even on their extension make as much as KD.

[lilfishi22]

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Suns swept Wolves in the regular season last year = Swept by the Wolves in the playoffs
OKC (likely) swept the Suns in the regular season this season = Swept by the Suns in the playoffs

[sunsbg]

All of Blazers, Mavs and Kings lost.

If KD is not traded I assume he's given an extension, so teams can't sign him next offseason without a compensation for us.

[Mr Puddles]

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Suns swept Wolves in the regular season last year = Swept by the Wolves in the playoffs
OKC (likely) swept the Suns in the regular season this season = Swept by the Suns in the playoffs

I like it, if it works one way it should work the otherway around as well. We swept the mavericks and wolves in the RS, and lost to them in the playoffs, we're entitled to upset the Thunder.

Going by these rules, we just need to avoid the Clippers in the play-in

[Saberestar]

Bobby Marks

To no surprise, NBA teams were notified that the salary cap in 2025-26 is expected to increase 10% from this past season, sources tell ESPN.

The current projection is the same that were given to teams in the offseason.

Salary cap: $154.6M
Luxury tax: $187.9M
First apron: $195.9M
Second apron: $207.8M

The salary cap this current season is $140.6M.

The maximum growth in the cap will allow teams more flexibility to work around the apron rules.

As the cap grows, so does the apron level.

We witnessed a bit of a perfect storm last offseason with the cap only growing 3.4%, resulting in some teams restricted in the offseason.

Great news to confirm that the cap will grow that much for next season.

Waiving and stretching Beal makes more sense if we can't find any taker or he plays hardball with the FO.

[Frank Lee]

Exactly…. Stretch Beal for trade freedom and usage of the MLE. We are a more competitive team by keeping KD. Seems we’ve plugged a few holes with Richards, Dunn, and Gillespie moving into the starting rotation. Oso and Martin are nice benchers. I’d keep ONeal and deal Allen + Micic. + pick for Marcus Smart (or something like that)

Be realistic. Unless you get a brinx haul for KD, his home will be here. That’s MadMat thinking. Way more sensible/safe to check the table bets and see what we have come December next yr. I can at least watch this current 5+. Just no more Beal.