Ghost of Kleine wrote:- For Kolek, it's his lack of burst, lack of size/ length, and subpar athleticism. Which Kolek will offset easily enough with his high cerebral basketball IQ and "in game" processing similar to McConnell.
I don't really understand the comparison to McConnell. I watched McConnell at AZ and he was a player I really liked, but he wasn't projected to be drafted, and was more of a scrappy player. Kolek is much different with very high IQ, making teammates a lot better, being a leader, shooting, etc.
Kevin O'Connor has "shades of "Brunson and Dragic" which seem much more on point. He won't be quite the scorer those guys were but coming out has the higher IQ, team leader, making players better, etc, than they did.
Ghost of Kleine wrote:- For Kolek, it's his lack of burst, lack of size/ length, and subpar athleticism. Which Kolek will offset easily enough with his high cerebral basketball IQ and "in game" processing similar to McConnell.
I don't really understand the comparison to McConnell. I watched McConnell at AZ and he was a player I really liked, but he wasn't projected to be drafted, and was more of a scrappy player. Kolek is much different with very high IQ, making teammates a lot better, being a leader, shooting, etc.
Kevin O'Connor has "shades of "Brunson and Dragic" which seem much more on point. He won't be quite the scorer those guys were but coming out has the higher IQ, team leader, making players better, etc, than they did.
That's a heck of a player at 22 if those comparisons are anywhere close.
With Booker at SG a defensive PG will always be a need, but if Kolek is able to lead a strong bench and occasionally starts, that's not a bad choice at 22. Haven't seen this comparison yet, but he looks like a shorter Austin Reaves to me with the way they move.
Since I posted the Kolek report, here is Dunn's. It does say shades of Jones and Roberson, but Jones was a 4 year player, much more seasoned and ready, and a good assist guy, and also shot 35% from 3 and over 71% from the line. Roberson is out of the league, and despite shooting 35% from 3 in college (along with 58% from the line), he never could shoot the 3 in the pros, averaging 25% for his 7 years, and never became a good 3pt shooter. Dunn shot 20% from 3 and 53% from the line. His defense sounds awesome but he wouldn't be playable for awhile. He won't take open shots either. He moves the ball but not for assists.
Ghost of Kleine wrote:- For Kolek, it's his lack of burst, lack of size/ length, and subpar athleticism. Which Kolek will offset easily enough with his high cerebral basketball IQ and "in game" processing similar to McConnell.
I don't really understand the comparison to McConnell. I watched McConnell at AZ and he was a player I really liked, but he wasn't projected to be drafted, and was more of a scrappy player. Kolek is much different with very high IQ, making teammates a lot better, being a leader, shooting, etc.
Kevin O'Connor has "shades of "Brunson and Dragic" which seem much more on point. He won't be quite the scorer those guys were but coming out has the higher IQ, team leader, making players better, etc, than they did.
Agree McConnell's a bad comp.
If we're going to play the comping white guys because they're white guys game, I hereby submit Houston Rockets legend Matt Maloney. Sure, he didn't rack up so many assists in college, and he joined the league at 25 (Kolek is 2023). Similar physical profiles, strong, good shooter, responsible ball-handler.
After going undrafted, Maloney became the starting point guard for the 96-97 Rockets, who were competing for a championship with a roster featuring three ancient HOF'ers and no supporting cast. He played great and made an All-Rookie team, and the Rockets made it to the WCF.
It was all downhill for Maloney after that, but that seems like the type of rookie season we're dreaming for here. If Kolek is Nash, we're f'd. Nash was basically irrelevant his rookie year.
All I'm trying to say with this post is Matt Maloney > Steve Nash... but they're good comps.
Ghost of Kleine wrote:- For Kolek, it's his lack of burst, lack of size/ length, and subpar athleticism. Which Kolek will offset easily enough with his high cerebral basketball IQ and "in game" processing similar to McConnell.
I don't really understand the comparison to McConnell. I watched McConnell at AZ and he was a player I really liked, but he wasn't projected to be drafted, and was more of a scrappy player. Kolek is much different with very high IQ, making teammates a lot better, being a leader, shooting, etc.
Kevin O'Connor has "shades of "Brunson and Dragic" which seem much more on point. He won't be quite the scorer those guys were but coming out has the higher IQ, team leader, making players better, etc, than they did.
Agree McConnell's a bad comp.
If we're going to play the comping white guys because they're white guys game, I hereby submit Houston Rockets legend Matt Maloney. Sure, he didn't rack up so many assists in college, and he joined the league at 25 (Kolek is 2023). Similar physical profiles, strong, good shooter, responsible ball-handler.
After going undrafted, Maloney became the starting point guard for the 96-97 Rockets, who were competing for a championship with a roster featuring three ancient HOF'ers and no supporting cast. He played great and made an All-Rookie team, and the Rockets made it to the WCF.
It was all downhill for Maloney after that, but that seems like the type of rookie season we're dreaming for here. If Kolek is Nash, we're f'd. Nash was basically irrelevant his rookie year.
All I'm trying to say with this post is Matt Maloney > Steve Nash... but they're good comps.
Spoiler:
:wink:
If we really want to go exact white guy comps, peak Scott Skiles could be it, though Kolek's a bit stronger and better from 2.
Matt Maloney was never an assist guy, even in the pros. Scott Skiles was a little more dynamic as a scorer as a senior in college, and averaged 6.5 apg and 3.3 topg.
Kolek averages 7.7 apg and 2.9 topg, while shooting over 55% from 2 and 39% from 3.
I mentioned peak Scott Skiles because I think when GoK and others use comps, they use player peaks and not player rookie years. Peak Skiles was 17.2 ppg (Kolek wouldn't do that as a rookie obviously), 8.4 apg and 41% from 3.
Anyway, I was looking at Scott Skiles, his NBA comps on b-ref (or similarity score), and interestingly enough, Booker is listed 4th in the similarity score.
Now Missi. Now his strengths sound like the player we need, but at the same time, he is very raw as a 1 year guy, averaged 5.6 rpg and is a 61% FT shooter. He also lacks size, at a little under 6'11 and 235 lbs. KD is 6'11, 240. KD also has a wingspan of 7'5 while MIssi is at 7'2 wingspan.
I don't see him as a starting C but maybe a backup C. He can't shoot 3s, or basically shoot at all, so is pretty much just a lob threat.
It does say shades of Duren though, who I think was drafted high.
bwgood77 wrote:Now Missi. Now his strengths sound like the player we need, but at the same time, he is very raw as a 1 year guy, averaged 5.6 rpg and is a 61% FT shooter. He also lacks size, at a little under 6'11 and 235 lbs. KD is 6'11, 240. KD also has a wingspan of 7'5 while MIssi is at 7'2 wingspan.
I don't see him as a starting C but maybe a backup C. He can't shoot 3s, or basically shoot at all, so is pretty much just a lob threat.
It does say shades of Duren though, who I think was drafted high.
I'm worried about his hands. Personally, I'd pass.
I remember long ago some analysis showing that steals was a strangely good predictor of NBA success for big men. Don't know if it still holds true, but if it does, Filpowski or - if we need a project - Adem Bona or N'Faly Dante might be OK in the second round.
kennydorglas wrote:It's not like gambo knows anything tho
Maybe he's hearing things from his anonymous scout who told him Luka would be horrible and a crybaby that teammates would hate and Ayton would be great.
Of course Missi will most likely be off the board by 22 with either the Heat taking him at 15, or the Pels taking him at 21. But still hearing that our suns front office is interested in him at 22 could be the smartest thing that I've heard in a long time!
I might have to start changing my opinion on James Jones if he actually makes this pick with Missi if available at 22 by some miracle!
If Filipowski is out (guessing he’ll be off the board before us anyway), give me Holmes, Edey, Missi, Collier, or Carrington. Kellan had a nice piece on Carrington today, and I know Vecenie is very high on him as well.
Ghost of Kleine wrote:- For Kolek, it's his lack of burst, lack of size/ length, and subpar athleticism. Which Kolek will offset easily enough with his high cerebral basketball IQ and "in game" processing similar to McConnell.
I don't really understand the comparison to McConnell. I watched McConnell at AZ and he was a player I really liked, but he wasn't projected to be drafted, and was more of a scrappy player. Kolek is much different with very high IQ, making teammates a lot better, being a leader, shooting, etc.
Kevin O'Connor has "shades of "Brunson and Dragic" which seem much more on point. He won't be quite the scorer those guys were but coming out has the higher IQ, team leader, making players better, etc, than they did.
I understand if you and others here might be somewhat confused by my Koleek comparison as everyone, of course, has there own individual and oft-differing perspectives on things, and identifying certain relatable characteristics between prospects and vets for the purpose of comparison, in general, is often a point of debate due to those same differing perspectives or very differing "eye of the beholder" valuing lenses that we apply to situations. But please allow me the opportunity to explain my reasoning for the distinct comparison I've made between Kolek and McConnell for the purpose of better clarity and understanding if possible.
First off, let me say that I do recognize their differing qualities/attributes obviously in that Kolek is a much better shooter from three, and is more of an offensive-oriented floor general archetype. And inversely, McConnell is obviously a much better midrange shooter, and a much better anticipatory/ disruptive defensive archetype. Now that those oppositional distinctions have been established, let's look at the various ways these two players are similar:
So McConnell is 6'0.5 with (6'1 in shoes) a 6'2 wingspan. Kolek is 6'1.25 (6'2 in shoes) with a 6'2.75 wingspan. Both are basically small (under 6'3) high motor cerebral below the rim floor general guards with short non-impactful wingspans. Next, let's do a statistical comparison since Tankathon apparently can't manage that themselves:
- Ncaa All region - Consensus AA - 2022-23 Big East POY - 2x All-Big East - 2023 All-Big East Tourney - A-10 All-Freshman - 2020-21 A-10 ROY - Big East Tourney MVP Career numbers- 11 points/ 4 rebounds/ 7 assists/1.6 steals. 43% FG/35% 3PT/ 81% FT/51% EFG.
(Just look at the very comparable accolades/ statistical production)
So again, actually very similar if you go by the larger scale sample size of their career college numbers! I didn't choose to go off of their singular last year, because that's a small sample to try and compare for long-range consistency patterns. Again, Kolek is the better long-range (3 PT) shooter, and McConnell is the better mid-range shooter. Kolek is the better offensive-oriented playmaker, while McConnell is the better defensive/ disruptive playmaker. Both are winners with a very competitive and tenacious attitude. Both are highly efficient, highly impactful, physical, driven (accumulating accolades), very crafty unathletic "below them rim" scorers, who can manipulate the opposition, control the pace of games, and table set/play make/ initiate the offense for their team and make their team better and vastly more competitive (BOTH have helped carry their teams to greater success as leaders of their respective teams. Both are scrappy tenacious defenders who play physicality and grit, with energy and relentless tenacity, and want to thoroughly beat the opposition! Both are high IQ, poised, and can hit clutch shots from their respective ranges and again, impact the game in a multitude of ways with their court vision, and advanced "in-game processing" abilities with Kolek using his to create elite playmaking/offensive opportunities, And with McConnell using his to create elite anticipatory game swinging defensive plays. But BOTH use their advanced cerebral processing to manipulate the opposition, affect and control the pace and flow of the game, and to manipulate the opposition to their tams' competitive advantage. Sure their styles of play and approach may be different, but they clearly share a lot of corporeal, intellectual, competitive, and behavioral attributes which make the projection comparison rather say if only looking deeper and in a more intrinsic fashion and making assessments from those above-listed factors. To illustrate my perspective a bit more, please look below:
TJ McConnell draft profile
Spoiler:
A pass-first point guard, McConnell leads our top-100 with 8.0 assists per 40 minutes pace adjusted and a 6.83 pure point rating, which would also rank second among all college players.
At 6'1.5” with a below-average 6'0” wingspan, McConnell will be undersized relative to other NBA point guards. None of his physical tools leap off the page, as he isn't exceptionally fast with the ball or explosive off the dribble. He does have a solid frame for his size and doesn't get pushed around, as he has great toughness to go along with his excellent strength. Since he doesn't have great athletic tools, he will need to find other ways to impact the game.
A pass-first point guard, McConnell leads our top 100 with 8.0 assists per 40 minutes pace adjusted and a 6.83 pure point rating, which would also rank second among all college players. He has displayed excellent decision-making with the ball in his hands, rarely forcing the issue while getting the ball to his teammates in spaces for them to create offense.
Rarely looking to create his own shot, McConnell is more focused on playing within the framework of the offense and setting up his teammates.
his career average to a still solid 38%. His fundamentals on his shot need some work, as his release point is low and he struggles to get his shot off quickly, which makes it easy to contest. Off the dribble, his release is much quicker, and he subsequently found a great deal of success here, converting 47% of his 115 pull-up jumpers, according to Synergy Sports Technology.
McConnell can be a capable pick-and-roll player, as he is a terrific decision-maker in addition to possessing the ability to shoot off the dribble.
If he has space to create, he can run his defender off the screen and find the open man after making the defense collapse. When he gets all the way to the rim, he's a solid finisher, at 60.9% according to Synergy Sports Technology, but his below-average athletic tools and length don't project him to get there all that often.
He's crafty around the rim to avoid the defense to get his shot off but he does so at the expense of getting to the free throw line, attempting just 2.4 free throw attempts per 40 minutes pace adjusted as he looks to avoid contact so he can get by the defender to attempt his close-range shots.
A true quarterback on the basketball court: runs the offense confidently and with flair, and is impressively efficient. A great distributing decision-maker; knows how to set up teammates at high speed, and can find his own shot. Hustles, battles, and is a constant threat for steals. Makes few mistakes. Undersized for the pro game, in both height and length. Doesn't make up for his size limitations with above-average athleticism or leaping ability. Not a top scorer, and is sub-par shooting from the 3-point arc. Must show he can handle one-on-one assignments on 'D' to be more than a backup.
Long Range Potential: Assist-machine pass-first rotational point guard.
Kolek is one of the most productive and effective players in college basketball.
While he might not have the elite physical attributes that you look for in a NBA prospect he’s got an elite feel for the game and a very high skill level. Has an uncanny ability to score in the lane, using great angles and timing.
Kolek is a special passer with awesome court vision. He runs the offense well, operates ball screens with a good feel, and is a true facilitator and leader on the floor.
He’s also a really good 3-point shooter who is even better in the clutch.
Projects as a really good backup at the NBA level, with some starter potential.
Interestingly, Kolek shares some traits with former Process Sixer TJ McConnell. Both are talented floor generals who rely on crafty play offensively and tenacity defensively to make up for athletic shortcomings. Picture, if you will, TJ with a jump shot; that’s Tyler Kolek.
Starting out at George Mason, Kolek would transfer to Marquette, where he burst on the scene after winning Big East POY in 2023, and in 2024, he would lead Marquette to the Sweet 16. He is a pure playmaker who can catch fire.
Pros:
High feel PG
Loves attacking the basket
Drives well
Knockdown 3 pt shooter
Smart defender
Clutch
Intense leader
Cons:
Needs to speed up release
Undersized
Summary:
Kolek could develop into a starting caliber PG, however, he is likely better fit coming off the bench and operating as more of a 6th man. Kolek does have serious 6MOTY potential, however.
IMO Tyler Kolek can be way better than TJ McConnell in the NBA but saying that he's TJ McConnell-like should NOT be seen as a disrespect to either talent. TJ really is an amazing impact as a backup/depth PG. Blueprint for that role-playing fit of that player archetype as PG's. 5:48 PM · May 8, 2024· 204 Views
Tyler Kolek- Two years ago I asked two NBA scouts if Kolek had a future in the NBA and both of them scoffed at the prospect. Now he's in the mix to go in the first round. I like the Marquette product (who started at George Mason) to be a semi-starter over the course of a multi-contract career. Kolek's competitive nature was blatant to anyone who followed him the past two seasons. He's an eyes-on-the-prize point guard (15.3 ppg, 7.7 apg, 4.9 rpg) who doesn't force the issue, seldom lets the offense out of his grip and wants the best success for his teammates. He's also going to body up and be a better defender than some think. TJ McConnell springs to mind as an all-too-obvious comp, but I could see Kolek mimicking McConnell's growth over the next eight years. CBS
During a podcast session with Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart gained some chuckles and viral replays when he described Pacers guard T.J. McConnell as someone you can’t just beat in a prospective street fight, but rather, “you can’t just win, you have to kill him. He’s not going to stop.”
In a few years, chances are someone will be describing Marquette product Tyler Kolek the same way. A fiery player with unwavering confidence, Kolek plays with tenacity and a large chip on his shoulder.
I mean obviously, you and everyone else here know that I could go on (ad nauseam) with much longer and frustratingly more detailed response to argue my point here, but I'm trying (somewhat unsuccessfully admittedly) to keep this as concise as possible by my low tier standards man!
I get their clear differences, but I'm looking at the more underlying and apparently overlooked attribute similarities between the two for my comparison projection.
bwgood77 wrote:Since I posted the Kolek report, here is Dunn's. It does say shades of Jones and Roberson, but Jones was a 4 year player, much more seasoned and ready, and a good assist guy, and also shot 35% from 3 and over 71% from the line. Roberson is out of the league, and despite shooting 35% from 3 in college (along with 58% from the line), he never could shoot the 3 in the pros, averaging 25% for his 7 years, and never became a good 3pt shooter. Dunn shot 20% from 3 and 53% from the line. His defense sounds awesome but he wouldn't be playable for awhile. He won't take open shots either. He moves the ball but not for assists.
I understand that you're trying to validate your concerns over Dunns' shooting struggles man, and even maybe trying to delegitimize the Hrb Jones comparison, by only comparing Jones' 4th-year evolution to Dunns' 1st and 2nd-year stats. But for the sake of the argument and comparison accuracy, I think it's a bit disingenuous to compare Dunns' freshman and sophomore stats when clearly Jones' freshman and sophomore stats should be utilized for a more accurate comparison rather than comparing a players' first or 2nd-year development to another player that's had more years of development in college so far. It's like comparing a rookie in his first or 2nd year of basketball to an NBA Veteran and saying........................see, the rookie isn't comparable because the seasoned vet is much further along in his development and ignoring the differing timelines/stages as a root factor for the difference. I mean, after all, it's not like Dunn as a prospect can't evolve or develop further too as Jones has given Jones' 4 years to Dunns' only two (at best). So in fairness to the comparison, let's look at BOTH players' actual statistical comparison at the freshman/sophomore levels to see just how different they truly were at the SAME DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES of their college careers:
So obviously very similar in most areas and with Dunn actually having a distinct edge in some categories too. Jones in others alternatively. But Dunn with a clear advantage at the same developmental stage in college. And it seems that Herb Jones turned out to offer much better value/impact in the league (after some further development), so it's not at all unreasonable to theorize that Ryan Dunn could do similarly if only given a reasonable chance as well.
