lilfishi22 wrote:Ghost of Kleine wrote:lilfishi22 wrote:
You're not getting premium FRP's in a KD deal. We're ironically the cautionary tale of giving up premium draft capital for an aging player. The GS pick is fine to me but that 2031, who knows, good be bad could be good. No one is going to give you a surefire lotto pick (ie from a historically bad team) for KD at this point imo.
I don't think Miami is keen to move either their 8th pick nor Ware fwiw
Based on what legitimate information aside from you're subjective opinion?
If you don't think the Heat's front office would be willing to give up the 8th pick for KD in interest of trying to compete again and not only maximize Herros' and Bams' prime years while also trying to quickly move past the utter embarrassment of how bad they've been after deciding to trade Butler, then I just don't know what to tell you.
Do you really think that the Heat's front office wants to suck this bad? Would Riley? Would Mickey Arison? Would they be ok with looking like they lost the battle from giving up Butler and being mediocre or worse?
What rookie around the 8th pick do you really think would offer the same level of competitive impact that KD would for them?
It's just ludicrous to think they'd pivot to prioritizing being bad and rebuilding over trying to contend and look like they won the Butler fiasco by removing him. Also the GS 1st would be ok for you in a KD trade man? You do realize that pick is currently the 21st pick right?
Do you think that KDs' value is a late 1st in an average draft honestly? What do you think would happen to a GM that decided to trade KD for a late 1st as a pick value return? They'd probably be fired on the spot.
And the Miami 31' 1st might be bad?........... based off of what exactly? Look at the age of their current players. That pick being 6 yrs out currently. Adebayo would be 33 yrs old, and Herro would be 31 yrs old.
And neither might even be on their roster by then too ( aside from Ware and some young players). So how good do you think they'll actually be in 31?
Lastly, while I can agree that Ware is unlikely, I think they'd have no issues whatsoever giving up the 8th pick in an average draft for KD who's still putting up near MVP level numbers and still looks fairly unstoppable too. And knowing that he'd likely resign there.
To claim that a team wouldn't be willing to give up a premium pick ( first for KD in a trade) especially one in Miami's situation (trying to save face post Butler trade) is just wild to me man.
I don't think they are willing to give up the farm for KD. I don't think that's controversial a take at all. I also don't think they are prioritising being bad. On path to being competitive is to trade for a KD this summer with assets but another could also be 2026 free agency where they may be able to get KD without giving up anything.
And to be clear, when I say premium FRP, I'm thinking top 7. Something in the mid to late lotto would be a good FRP and anything in the 20's would just be a FRP. We might be able to squeeze a good lotto pick but I doubt the Heat would give up the 8th pick for a 37 year old KD. If that pick drops and ends up being worse than 8, they could potentially give that up over giving up Ware but I think they keep the pick if it's 8 or higher.
I don't know what the Miami 1st in 2031 is going to look like, nobody knows. They could hit over the next year couple of years with some great signings or trades and be back at it again but Miami has always been a very competitive team without long stretches (ie 3+ seasons stretches of tanking) and I would probably think they will be closer to a competitive team than some lotto team. Bam and Herro would probably be in the back end of their primes but still in their prime.
I think at the end of the day, as good as KD still is, Riley has never been a big gambler (unlike Ishbia). KD might still be elite for another couple of years, maybe into his late 30's like Bron but I don't see Riley putting his faith and the good assets he has for that pretty small window. And he'll need to extend him as well.
Reasonable perspective for the reasons you mentioned. Although I do disagree with you on Arisons' and Riley's level of interest in securing KD as soon as possible to move past the whole Butler decision debacle which would be an embarrassing moment they'd surely like to put in the past.
They promoted Butler as the problem holding them back. Then they trade him and are struggling terribly. A horrific outcome for them as their franchise has always been known as a top franchise honestly. KD would obviously help them contend again rather quickly slotted in at the SF with Bam at the 4 and Ware at the 5. They'd really just need to secure their PG position. And they're be options for them to consider in trades, etc.
But I don't think they'll prefer to wait and try to land him in free agency at the risk of him signing elsewhere or possibly resigning here as he seems to still like it here.
I believe they'd prefer to trade for him and at least see for a full season where they finish at in the east and then make a determination on resigning him or just letting him walk and using that cap space elsewhere. For 26' free agency.
It's a bird in hand scenario allowing them to test run him for a full season prior to 26' free agency to see how he fits with their core and then make a more informed decision based upon the outcome during the 25' season prior to the loaded 26' free agency. So they'll know (with advanced time) if this experiment will work, or if it flops, then they'd still have optimal cap space heading into that loaded free agency to spend elsewhere if it doesn't.
But ultimately I don't think they'd prefer to wait another year (implied risk of age related drop off) as he'll only get older with less years left. But also because they'd still have to compete against a number of other teams too. Many with possibly better rosters to surround him with and/ or better competitive situations as well that could sway him to sign elsewhere.
And while waiting on his decision, they'd lose out on other potential key free agency signing opportunities. If they wait and he reaches unrestricted free agency, 3 such teams that would be much more enticing could be:
1- Dallas.
With Kyrie and Davis and a full roster back creating a big three around irving, Durant and Davis with quality depth and young pieces too.
2- Golden State.
If GS can find a way to create cap to sign him or he's willing to sign for a bit less to play with BOTH Curry and Butler, etc whom he's wanted to play with ( the reason we were trying to add him) then they'd have a big three of Curry, Butler and Durant. And likely a miluch better chance at a championship run than with us or Miami as both are currently constructed.
3- San Antonio.
Wemby would be back, Popovich (his favored coach that he one two gold medals under in the Tokyo Olympics) would/could come back too, they'd have cap space to add depth pieces and already have high end young defensive talent to surround him with in Castle, Sochan, Vassell, and a higher lotto pick than Miami in this draft as well. And playing for a historically great franchise.
Also maybe Houston to play with their young exciting core (whom he works out with every summer) and playing for Udoka again (a coach he adored) and being in an already young athletic legitimate rising playoff team in the west.
I just don't see them being willing to wait and risk losing him to any multitude of other teams with better situations, etc. And while he only ages further too. And for the privilege of sucking for another season making their decision to not resign Butler look really bad.
Also they can't really tank well anyways because OKC most likely has Miami's unprotected pick in 26' ( because the 25' pick won't convey this summer). So they'll want to compete and be much better to not give up a high range lottery pick themselves to OKC in a much better loaded 26 draft.
So for all of these reasons man ( in addition to Arison and Riley not wanting to suck and wait for youth development) they'll prioritize KD and competing not just for ego/ optics, but also to mitigate the lottery value surrendered to OKC in 26 too. These reasons are why I understand your perspective but can't agree with your outcome assessment.











 
 




