Slim Charless wrote:Ghost of Kleine wrote:No worries. It's perfectly alright that we disagree on the value of the 2021 Dallas unprotected first man! And you may very well be right in that Luka could/ would carry the Mavs to a high seed in the playoffs. And as with any future picks, there is an element of risk as to their estimated return. But a couple of considerations for me, That lead me to believe that the pick has a very good chance of maximum value for us are:
- Yes, You're right that Luka will make the Mavs really competitive. However, There's a lot of teams in the western conference that also got really stronger, And the west is already a super tough, cutthroat conference in itself. So all it would take is one well timed injury, or for them to have any issues with team chemistry as a result of trades, Or really, any variable of issues etc. So there's really no absolute that they will be guaranteed to be a top seed in the playoffs, Especially if any other teams in their division get hot or streaky!
- This 2021 draft, again, Is really very very deep and loaded with ELITE high level talent, That actually extends well beyond the lottery and into the middle of the first round. Additionally, This draft may also end up being a " double draft" on top of the elite lottery talent that is already present. This is due to a number of elite high school prospects also potentially reclassifying and entering the draft. As well as the returning prospects from the 2020 draft that pulled out of this draft and chose to return to college too, Pushing the depth further through the first round.
I mean, honestly, You could probably give me any of the 5 positions, And I could give you at least 3-5 ( or more) elite prospects for that position that are going to be in this draft. So this basically more or less means that you're almost guaranteed to get an elite talent with the ability to contribute at a high level from the jump.
- With the new flattened odds in the lottery, added to the combining of our pick ( which is likely to be right at the end of the lottery) with the unprotected Dallas pick, We would have great assets with which to move up higher in the draft for a higher level prospect.
- *** The consideration again that Oubre is an expiring contract that is projected to get a large payscale increase, likely beyond what we can responsibly afford to pay him in the free agency market. And you then add to that, That he's just recently recovering from a knee injury as well, meaning we can't be assured of his ability to maintain his same level of production or his overall long term durability. Which at the pricetag of around 20 million or more ( average estimated starter level rotation pay) would make him a huge risk for us. And also with him soon to be an unrestricted free agent anyways, It's not likely that any team will give us premium value for a potential 1yr rental ( with a recent injury history).
- Being able to turn a recently injured player that we can't likely afford to resign in free agency, And would likely lose for nothing anyways. And at a position where we are already 3 deep, For potentially 15 million in cap space, That we can use to fill another positional hole at the 4 with a highly productive veteran power forward, an unprotected first round pick ( rare to get these days) in a super deep draft loaded with elite talent, and a late first round pick is great value, AGAIN, For a recently injured player on an expiring contract that we'll likely otherwise lose for nothing anyways.
And unfortunately, IF we wait until the trade deadline, I'm just worried that his trade value will be even more diminished, In the respect that you have to ask, what team will willingly give up quality assets for a player that they can shortly just sign with cap space, without having to give up assets in a trade? I can't seem to find a good trade that really fits that scenario.
Lastly, IF we could get New Yorks own top 2 protected pick instead of the Dallas unprotected first, I'd absolutely do it.
But ultimately, I'd take whichever one they'd be willing to part with! As it sets us up with two draft picks in the draft, Allowing us to be competitive,
Yet still also maintain a good shot at an elite talent in the draft.
The bottom line with Oubre being that he's likely out pricing himself from us Thanks to his breakout season, And in that we'll likely lose him in free agency anyways, We should get as many assets for him as we can before he reaches free agency. And I love the idea of being able to flip him for cap space and assets that would allow us to sign another high profile veteran player at a position of need ( Milsapp/ Ibaka/ Favors/ Jerami Grant?), AND additional HIGH VALUE draft assets.
A few things here. While the west is obviously very good Dallas is one the teams on the rise. They've done what they've done this season with a only semi-good KP. IF he returns to the NYK version + whoever Cuban decides to add onto the team in the offseason and I think they might be top 3 even in the west. That probably places that pick in the 27 or so range-which is nice for a deep draft but still as good as KO has been this year is that really worth it? As to the vet PF I get that we need one but are you really excited about giving away our 24 yr old wing who plays D, hits the three, handles the ball and on top of all of that gives our team some swagger all so we can give Milsapp or Favors 30 mill/yr? I wouldn't mind Grant but still.
Now I get that we're taking a risk by holding onto him but if he returns to old KO and we still want/need to get rid of him then some team on the borderline will pay for him, hoping he can put them over the edge. Imagine if all hell breaks loose in Philly w/ Simmons and Embiid and Ben demands out. Kelly putting up this years numbers or maybe even better (not outside of the realm of possibliity for his age) and with Booker and Ben pushing for it who knows what can happen? Or what if Brandon Ingram decides he doesn't like being Zion's sidekick and wants out of New Orleans. There's all kinds of players that have issues with their teams every year. My point is that a low pick and the right to overpay some old vet doesn't seem like a good trade-off for someone who has played his best ball of his career this season with us and is a huge part of the team. Oh and he's also Booker and Ayton's best friend on the team.
I agree that Kelly might not be long for this team but again if we're having teams not wanna deal with us due to KO's injury then I'd rather just keep him and wait for someone to have need for a young player that can do a lot of things. As to teams that would pull the trigger on him now I've brought a couple up in Detroit and CHI but I'd even add CLV to that: they need another player who can be a star and need some attitude. I'd look to try and once again do a swap of picks depending on where they land and maybe add Garland or a later protected 1st next yr or the yr after. Also, I know people here wouldn't be too happy with dealing with LAL but lets say if Kuzma starts acting stupid again and Bron gets sick of his **** don't think they'd trade Kuz for Oubre if it came down to it?
The point of all of this is there's alot of different ways that this can play out and there's no reason to rush and ship Oubre out b/c we're worried about a decision that is more then a year away. Also that decision is gonna be interesting in of itself. KO is gonna be a FA in the craziest summer possibly ever. He's gonna have to wait till many other guys make up their minds before he gets call from teams next summer. No reason to rush on this, wait it out and find some dumb team and then jump on a good deal.
You, As always make great counter points as well man!
So much respect there! And it seems for now we'll just have to find ourselves on the opposite side of the same coin regarding Oubre, Wherein it can flip and land either way really.
Here's what we do know for sure with Oubre though:
- We will have to inevitably make a choice on Oubre. With us not extending him sooner, He WILL become an unrestricted free agent, With us having no leverage or matching rights to resign him in free agency. So we will at that point have only two options, Either outbid other teams with cap space that are looking to spend, And thusly having to overpay for him in order to be able resign him. Which will greatly inhibit our ability to extend Bridges and Ayton, As well as our ability to improve at other positions of need on our roster.
Or we simply choose to let him walk away and then use the cap space to find a replacement in free agency, as well as fill any additional roster positions needed at that time. So IF we hold onto him longer, Then his trade value drops continually and exponentially the closer he gets to free agency. So at best, We might have a slim chance to make the playoffs with him IF we're very lucky! But shortly after, will have lost him for nothing, Whenst we could've recieved some valuable assets whilst he was under contract longer.
- His game is predominantly predicated upon his athleticism, explosiveness, speed, and wreckless abandon and relentless attack mentality ( Which I DO love about him). But with that knee injury, The likelihood of his potential reinjury is greatly increased by that very playing style and the pressure it will put on his knee. And IF he's aware of this now and decidedly cautious/ tentative in his style of play, Then what kind of impact should we really expect from him? Again, since his game and overall impact is widely predicated upon his athleticism, speed, and attack mentality, etc.
- His best case scenario is again as you stated that he returns to a highly productive, impactful Oubre. But IF that happens, Then it also subsequently drives up his free agency market value. Which again gives us no real leverage the closer he gets to unrestricted free agency. So it's better to get value for him sooner, rather than later. Unless we truly believe that he'd be willing to take a reduced or smaller offer in order to stay with us. Which of course is not likely, Considering that he was recently injured, and this is his first opportunity to actually get a big payday ( for his security) especially if he considers his future durability. So he'll obviously go for the biggest payday that he can get.
Now with respect to the Dallas unprotected first. YES, I will absolutely agree that Dallas is an up and coming team. And that a Doncic and Porzingis duo is very potent. However, There's big Ifs involved in their being able to reach the playoffs as a top 3 seed team. First, IF Porzingis actually returns to his pre injury New York form. Porzingis has a lengthy repetitive injury history. Particularly with respect to his knees, And has already suffered one ACL injury. And was injured/ out due to injury at least 5 times during the 2020 alone.
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/kristaps-porzingis-player-injurieshttps://www.foxsports.com/nba/luka-doncic-player-injuriesSo his durability is highly questionable. and for Doncic, He's been amazing for sure But he himself has already been injured during the 2020 season alone around 7 times, 3 times with ankle injuries, 2 times with thumb injuries and one wrist and an illness too. But the ankle injuries are the most concerning given his style of play, and the repetitiveness of that particular injury since entering the league (** aproximately
9 times already. So his durability is definitely a big IF as well.
Also, Dallas isn't the only improving or up and coming team that improved this last season. There's a great number of teams that either have improved and gotten much stronger, Or have positioned themselves to be a top seeded team themselves. So it's going to be a tough, uphill battle for them to even make it to around a 4-6 seed in my estimation, But that's around where I see them finishing actually. Placing their pick in the middle of the first round ( likely between 16-23 ) at worst. And that's IF everything clicks, And they go on some runs. Honestly, the majority of the Western conference actually got tougher now, As well as some actual teams in the East too. So there'll be no soft schedule for the Mavs or anyone else really next season. So again, there's no real guarantee that they'll be a top 3 team in such a bloodthirsty, ultra competitive and cutthroat western conference.
And again, for this draft, It's likely going to be considered a "Double draft" wherein you not only have all of the returning college players from 2020 entering, But also an opportunity for early entrants from high school as well as a large number of elite international prospects that could enter too. And that will push more elite players further down in the draft, making them more easily attainable( with having 2 picks to use to trade up higher. You have to remember that in 2021, there'll be a good number of teams that will be looking to add cheap contracts prior to free agency that summer, As to clear cap space for a potential star signing. So in having two picks available as assets, we have valuable tradable assets to work with. So the value is definitely there! Especially when considering that we got that pick for a player that we likely couldn't really afford to resign anyways, and would've lost for nothing anyways.
As for paying Milsapp or Favors 30 million, I don't see anyway whatsoever that either player would command that this summer with a very restrictive cap and not many teams planning their free agency on this summer anyways. Again, This summer's free agency crop is going to be gery limited and further restricted by the reduced cap. So given that, Along with all of ( Ibakas' Milsapps' and Favors' ages) their more likely to get in the 12- 15 million at best, IF they're lucky. I want Ibaka by the way as my first choice. Jerami Grant as my 2nd choice at around 13-15 million, And then Milsapp or Favors at no more than 12-14 million would be my top offer. Otherwise I would pursue Bjelica at around 10( If Sacramento buys him out) or pursue Grant at around 12-14.
All solid suggestions man!
With Detroit/ Chicago/ and Cleveland.
With Detroit-
I'm not sure how much they'd be willing to return with already having Sekou Dembouya developing at that position. But IF they're willing to give back a 2021/2022 first with minimal protection, Then I'd listen. But again, They have Snell/ Doumbouya/ Mykhialiuk. I'd probably do it for Svi, Rose, and a top 4 protected 2021 first. But I don't see them giving up Rose though.
Chicago-
I'd really prefer Markannen personally, But with their new management/ GM/ Direction, I don't see them moving him for now. So the next option I'd consider would be for maybe Santoransky/ Carter Jr/ and a 2021 top 8 protected first round pick. Or if possible at all, Dunn( resigned), Valentine ( resigned), And a 2021 top 15 protected first. Although they do still have Porter Jr. At that same position with a 28 million player option, So I'm not sure that I see them taking on additional salary at that position honestly.
Cleveland-
They don't really have any solid ass ed ts worth getting back for Oubre aside from maybe Sexton, Nance, and perhaps perhaps Dylan Windler. But Both Garland and Sexton are in their plans for their backcourt of the future, So I'm not too sure of the value being close in a return, Even with a pick swap, Because they also have Tristan Thompsons' 18 million and Deladovas' 9 million coming off the books prior to 2020 free agency, So they'll have close to 30 million in cap space to offer in free agency and improve. So the pick swap might not end up being any better than a mid to late first by 2021. I guess I would maybe consider it for Sexton/ Osman/ Windler and a top 10 protected first/ unprotected in 2022 perhaps. But I wouldn't be happy with it.
With respect to waiting, That's all fine and good to a certain point, But as we know all too well, IF you aren't assertive about finding a good deal, Then you very well might be looking at only the cap space as a return, Because again, teams aren't stupid. They're not going to offer solid value or even percieved equal value for a player that will ultimately be at best only a 6 month or less rental. They'll expect a full season to determine if they should resign him at cost or not, If you can't offer them that time to properly evaluate him, etc. Than they'll likely just pass and wait for him to reach free agency, without having to surrender any value.
So for me, it's not so much about rushing to move Oubre due to concern, it's more based upon the knowledge that stems from past experience that the longer you hold onto an unrestricted free agent, the less value you can get in return, Along with the realization that we simply can't afford to resign him anyways. And getting an unprotected first round pick these days is almost unheard of. Especially with it being in a ridiculously deep/ loaded draft too. Now again, IF you can get New York to surrender their own 2020 first with minimal protection *( maybe top 4 protected in 2021/ unprotected in 2022) Then absolutely!!! Sign me up! But it's really about getting some sort of exchange of valuable assets in return for a player that we deem as someone who has played himself out of our price range,
that we'll lose anyways for nothing more than cap space. So to get back that equal cap space, as well as additional draft capital and rotational depth on expiring contracts is actually an optimal value return. And I believe that James Jones and the suns front office would somewhat agree on trading Oubre, as evidenced by their exploratory trade talks involving Gordon. I just think that they anticipate not being able to resign him, And are thusly exploring value.
I guess that it's better than nothing!