Season Speculation, Trade Ideas and Discussion

[AtheJ415]

Ok, with Grant, i was confusing him with Covington, so my bad. Thats the only one that i will secede from.

My statement was that Warren isnt the easy clear-cut best of the 2014 draft like was stated. I do put guys like Wiggins/Parker/Randle above him, and believe that he is in the same tier as the others (Lavine due to scoring instincts, Harris for his defense and Nurkić/Jokić for their ability to effect the game in all aspects that they should as bigmen like rebounds/blocks/steals while also being able to score). If there was a redo with that draft all over again would Warren be the #1 pick? Nope. Would he be somewhere in the top 10, yes.

You guys are also on this, "OH MY GOD, WARREN IS SOOOOOO AMAZING!! Sure, its only been 6 games and our team has sucked ass and our real future all-star Booker has played like hot garbage due to teams now stepping up their defensive pressure against him, but Warren is the greatest!!!" I give him credit for stepping up, but man, some of you guys are going completely overboard this early in the season.

Team has been garbage, and he has played the best on a hot mess of a team. Its Rudy Gay. Once Booker and/or Bledsoe start to get going, lets see if Warren can continue. Wiggins/Lavine have been playing good next to an all-star player in KAT. The Bucks have an absolute stud in Antetopoetopjwe;rgh;gfnh1, yet Parker still has been playing great next to him. Its like the past few seasons when i point out a player and the #1 thing i hear is, "He is only putting up stats like that because his team is sooooo bad" (Yes, i have heard that a lot, specially when it came to the 76ers).

To top all this off, it all started when i said i would do Warren OR Bender instead of Chriss OR Bender. To me, one of these guys is our future SF, hell i think i even stated that. Bender has the higher ceiling in my opinion, but who knows if he will ever reach it. But it is funny that just me changing the trade to keeping Chriss and MAYBE including Warren is what started all this "Kerrsed is crazy and hates Warren stuff", when its far from the truth. I just majorly disagreed with the statement that he is the best of the 2014 draft and included some names who i think are better or on par with him.

....or maybe it was that i called and compared him to Rudy Gay......which i still dont think is all that far off.

This statement is just so very wrong. Lavine does not score, nor has he ever scored, as efficiently or effectively as well as Warren. If by scoring instincts you mean dunk contest wins, okay, then Gerald Green should be a hall of famer.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

This statement is just so very wrong. Lavine does not score, nor has he ever scored, as efficiently or effectively as well as Warren. If by scoring instincts you mean dunk contest wins, okay, then Gerald Green should be a hall of famer.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/player-true-shooting-percent-leaders/2016/

It's important to keep in mind how many O-Rebs TJ gets - especially off his own misses. If there were a more advanced stat that included that, I'm sure he'd be higher on the list.

[AtheJ415]

Ok, with Grant, i was confusing him with Covington, so my bad. Thats the only one that i will secede from.

My statement was that Warren isnt the easy clear-cut best of the 2014 draft like was stated. I do put guys like Wiggins/Parker/Randle above him, and believe that he is in the same tier as the others (Lavine due to scoring instincts, Harris for his defense and Nurkić/Jokić for their ability to effect the game in all aspects that they should as bigmen like rebounds/blocks/steals while also being able to score). If there was a redo with that draft all over again would Warren be the #1 pick? Nope. Would he be somewhere in the top 10, yes.

You guys are also on this, "OH MY GOD, WARREN IS SOOOOOO AMAZING!! Sure, its only been 6 games and our team has sucked ass and our real future all-star Booker has played like hot garbage due to teams now stepping up their defensive pressure against him, but Warren is the greatest!!!" I give him credit for stepping up, but man, some of you guys are going completely overboard this early in the season.

Team has been garbage, and he has played the best on a hot mess of a team. Its Rudy Gay. Once Booker and/or Bledsoe start to get going, lets see if Warren can continue. Wiggins/Lavine have been playing good next to an all-star player in KAT. The Bucks have an absolute stud in Antetopoetopjwe;rgh;gfnh1, yet Parker still has been playing great next to him. Its like the past few seasons when i point out a player and the #1 thing i hear is, "He is only putting up stats like that because his team is sooooo bad" (Yes, i have heard that a lot, specially when it came to the 76ers).

To top all this off, it all started when i said i would do Warren OR Bender instead of Chriss OR Bender. To me, one of these guys is our future SF, hell i think i even stated that. Bender has the higher ceiling in my opinion, but who knows if he will ever reach it. But it is funny that just me changing the trade to keeping Chriss and MAYBE including Warren is what started all this "Kerrsed is crazy and hates Warren stuff", when its far from the truth. I just majorly disagreed with the statement that he is the best of the 2014 draft and included some names who i think are better or on par with him.

....or maybe it was that i called and compared him to Rudy Gay......which i still dont think is all that far off.

You're missing the boat here because you are pointing out arguments that fit inefficient guys who produce volume stats, like Michael Carter-Williams and Rudy Gay half a decade ago. Guys on bad teams who always have the ball and therefore score points, rack up assists, etc., but whose advanced stats look awful because their usage is so high and they don't do things at a particularly effective/efficient level. That fits volume-scoring chuckers. Warren is not that.

You then touch on guys who play alongside elite talents and say that is a different ball game, and it is, but again for the wrong reasons. Playing next to an All-Star means you likely have the ball less and therefore worse volume stats, but your efficiency and +/- on both ends ought to be better if the guy you are playing with is good on both ends. Less attention is paid to you.

The problem with all of that is that it ignores that TJ Warren is the most efficient scorer of the entire group despite not playing with an All-Star and thus teams being able to gameplan more for him than they do the Zach Lavine's and Jabari Parker's of the world. It also ignores that TJ has the highest WS/48 despite being on the worst team according to your logic that he is only putting up numbers because our team sucks.

The traditional rationale that you are touching on goes against the actual numbers and what they show on both sides of the argument, but you are ignoring that.

[bwgood77]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/player-true-shooting-percent-leaders/2016/

It's funny I changed the year to 2015 to scan where they were last year and it was interesting to see where they each were last year.

[Kerrsed]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/player-true-shooting-percent-leaders/2016/

It's funny I changed the year to 2015 to scan where they were last year and it was interesting to see where they each were last year.

You mean Lavine being tied with Warren at .549 instead of being ranked 50 places higher as he currently is?

[bwgood77]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/player-true-shooting-percent-leaders/2016/

It's funny I changed the year to 2015 to scan where they were last year and it was interesting to see where they each were last year.

You mean Lavine being tied with Warren at .549 instead of being ranked 50 places higher as he currently is?

Yes, I thought it was funny in looking at a huge list for two players that they were ranked exactly the same at 155 and 156.

I didn't really weigh in on who I think is better. They are different players and I think both are great prospects. Lavine is actually shooting 45% from 3 so far so he is playing extremely well. I wouldn't compare him to Warren though. He'd be a better person to compare to Booker. Lavine has definitely started off the season better at SG than Booker has at SG, but he also has an extra year in the league and is almost 2 years older.

Warren is a completely different type of player. More of what a SF should be. CAN hit the 3, but elite at mid range and is a better rebounder. More than 3x the number of steals as well. It will be interesting to see if Lavine can continue to shoot over 45% from 3 on high volume. He's in the top 20 in percentage now

3-Pt Field Goal Pct
1. Joe Johnson • UTA .542
C.J. Miles • IND .542
3. Iman Shumpert • CLE .538
Goran Dragic • MIA .538
5. Mike Conley • MEM .531
6. Paul George • IND .528
7. Channing Frye • CLE .526
8. Tyler Johnson • MIA .500
Courtney Lee • NYK .500
Karl-Anthony Towns • MIN .500
11. Jimmy Butler • CHI .476
Dwyane Wade • CHI .476
13. Jae Crowder • BOS .474
14. Patrick Mills • SAS .472
15. Hollis Thompson • PHI .467
16. C.J. McCollum • POR .460
17. Zach LaVine • MIN .452
18. Tobias Harris • DET .450
Rudy Gay • SAC .450
20. Avery Bradley • BOS .444
Jared Dudley • PHO .444

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2017_leaders.html

By the way, I always though you liked and were high on Rudy Gay?

[Kerrsed]

It's funny I changed the year to 2015 to scan where they were last year and it was interesting to see where they each were last year.

You mean Lavine being tied with Warren at .549 instead of being ranked 50 places higher as he currently is?

Yes, I thought it was funny in looking at a huge list for two players that they were ranked exactly the same at 155 and 156.

I didn't really weigh in on who I think is better. They are different players and I think both are great prospects. Lavine is actually shooting 45% from 3 so far so he is playing extremely well. I wouldn't compare him to Warren though. He'd be a better person to compare to Booker. Lavine has definitely started off the season better at SG than Booker has at SG, but he also has an extra year in the league and is almost 2 years older.

Warren is a completely different type of player. More of what a SF should be. CAN hit the 3, but elite at mid range and is a better rebounder. More than 3x the number of steals as well. It will be interesting to see if Lavine can continue to shoot over 45% from 3 on high volume. He's in the top 20 in percentage now

3-Pt Field Goal Pct
1. Joe Johnson • UTA .542
C.J. Miles • IND .542
3. Iman Shumpert • CLE .538
Goran Dragic • MIA .538
5. Mike Conley • MEM .531
6. Paul George • IND .528
7. Channing Frye • CLE .526
8. Tyler Johnson • MIA .500
Courtney Lee • NYK .500
Karl-Anthony Towns • MIN .500
11. Jimmy Butler • CHI .476
Dwyane Wade • CHI .476
13. Jae Crowder • BOS .474
14. Patrick Mills • SAS .472
15. Hollis Thompson • PHI .467
16. C.J. McCollum • POR .460
17. Zach LaVine • MIN .452
18. Tobias Harris • DET .450
Rudy Gay • SAC .450
20. Avery Bradley • BOS .444
Jared Dudley • PHO .444

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2017_leaders.html

By the way, I always though you liked and were high on Rudy Gay?

Not high on him, just dont see him as the black hole that many do. He is a good player. And me comparing TJ to Gay wasnt trying to be a knock on Warren at all, i just see striking similarities to their game, yet once you mention Gay's name on this board, everyone throws a fit.

Like i said before and numerous times now, i have nothing against Warren.

[lilfishi22]

I wish Dudley shot more. He passes off too often. At 44.4% from the 3, he can afford for that efficiency to come down a bit for more volume and production.

[Saberestar]

I wish Dudley shot more. He passes off too often. At 44.4% from the 3, he can afford for that efficiency to come down a bit for more volume and production.

The problem is that he needs a ton of space and time to shoot the ball.

[Kerrsed]

I wish Dudley shot more. He passes off too often. At 44.4% from the 3, he can afford for that efficiency to come down a bit for more volume and production.

The problem is that he needs a ton of space and time to shoot the ball.

.....also, with him playing PF he usually is being guarded by the opposing teams PF;s, all of whom have size and length against him, making the space and time to shoot a 3 pointer harder to come by.

[bwgood77]

I wish Dudley shot more. He passes off too often. At 44.4% from the 3, he can afford for that efficiency to come down a bit for more volume and production.

The problem is that he needs a ton of space and time to shoot the ball.

.....also, with him playing PF he usually is being guarded by the opposing teams PF;s, all of whom have size and length against him, making the space and time to shoot a 3 pointer harder to come by.

Typically that can be an advantage with small ball because you are quicker and more agile pulling slower guys out of the paint, but I guess Dudley's not necessarily quick, and many teams have small units themselves with fairly athletic 4s that usually have length.

[lilfishi22]

I agree. I still think he hesitates too much though.

[Zelaznyrules]

I wish Dudley shot more. He passes off too often. At 44.4% from the 3, he can afford for that efficiency to come down a bit for more volume and production.

The problem is that he needs a ton of space and time to shoot the ball.

Yeah but he looks like Tucker last year, where he hesitates and then has no choice but to pass or drive. Okay, he's not Tucker bad but it does seem that he's passing up a few shots each game that the offense just screams for him to take.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

It's funny I changed the year to 2015 to scan where they were last year and it was interesting to see where they each were last year.

You mean Lavine being tied with Warren at .549 instead of being ranked 50 places higher as he currently is?

Yes, I thought it was funny in looking at a huge list for two players that they were ranked exactly the same at 155 and 156.

I didn't really weigh in on who I think is better. They are different players and I think both are great prospects. Lavine is actually shooting 45% from 3 so far so he is playing extremely well. I wouldn't compare him to Warren though. He'd be a better person to compare to Booker. Lavine has definitely started off the season better at SG than Booker has at SG, but he also has an extra year in the league and is almost 2 years older.

Warren is a completely different type of player. More of what a SF should be. CAN hit the 3, but elite at mid range and is a better rebounder. More than 3x the number of steals as well. It will be interesting to see if Lavine can continue to shoot over 45% from 3 on high volume. He's in the top 20 in percentage now

Another thing I should mention - while TJ gets plenty of steals, he is very, VERY good at not turning the ball over (though there was a notable exception last night). TJ's game is all about getting solid shots and extra possessions. Factor all that in, and he's better than his shooting percentage - which I expect to be around 50% by the end of the season.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

As long as we're talking about advanced stats, I just threw up in my mouth a bit:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/individual-player-plus-minus-statistics/2016/

[bwgood77]

You mean Lavine being tied with Warren at .549 instead of being ranked 50 places higher as he currently is?

Looking further into Wiggins vs Warren, they are probably better to compare, both being small forwards, and overall they are shooting similarly % wise, though, again Wiggins is better from 3, not on high volume at 54.5% which is insane but unlikely unsustainable. Though Warren is the better rebounder and far better at steals.

Now I don't expect Warren to necessarily be better than Wiggins, but even being in a conversation is impressive since Wiggins was hyped up so much coming into the draft.

I do think Warren has a good chance of being better than (or at least on par with) Parker, but they are VERY similar, Parker a little better overall fg%, but worse from 3, similar in rebounding and steals...almost identical...a little fewer points overall.

But just being on par with those guys, who were clear consensus top 3 picks is nice.

Would you trade either of those guys if they were on our team instead of Chriss in that proposed deal?

[bwgood77]

As long as we're talking about advanced stats, I just threw up in my mouth a bit:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/individual-player-plus-minus-statistics/2016/

Wow, 2 in the bottom 3 of the whole list. I have noticed Warren has not good +/- often even when he is playing well, but that's largely in part that Tucker wasn't playing much early, so Warren had to stay out there WITH Knight and Len, and still was out there less earlier. +/- can be really misleading for some players if you are not watching the game and the stats right as they are compiled so unless you have that context you can quickly jump to the wrong conclusions.

[lilfishi22]

I'd trade Chriss before Warren 9 times out of 10 since I know we still have Bender waiting in the wings.

[Zelaznyrules]

I'd trade Chriss before Warren 9 times out of 10 since I know we still have Bender waiting in the wings.

I agree. I'd give up Chriss and a Miami pick before I'd give up Warren. I expect him to make a handful of all star games before his career is through. Chriss has a shot at being a star, maybe even a superstar (whatever that is) but he still has an even bigger chance to bust.

[MrMiyagi]

I don't want to trade anyone other than Knight and PJ Tucker.