2021 Playoff and Offseason Speculation - the playoffs. PLAYOFFS????

[SunsRback4Good]

The offseason would have been perfect had we just nabbed haliburton. Winning heals all but god damn we would have been set for the next decade. Really an unforgivable draft decision...maybe a bigger blunder than the 2018 draft.

Also, you know that dreaded feeling we used to get when playing the Lakers during Nash's time on the Suns?

Yeah. Because it looks like we're both good teams again, that feeling is back.

22/4/4/2 on 64% shooting. Every Suns fans yelling at their TV for Haliburton yet James Jones is like, " nah, I feel something special with Smith". Let's hope down the line Smith excels and becomes 75% of what Haliburton produces.

Hard to gauge it off one season where one guy is getting a lot of burn on a mediocre Kings team and the other has struggled with health on a pretty good Suns team. A good rookie season isn't always a tell of a great career, I mean people thought MCW was the next Jason Kidd based on his rookie year and now he's a journeyman who's played for 6 teams in 8 years.

Based on the way Jones has managed our draft thus far, I'm ok with it. 2019 was pretty incredible in that he was able to turn #6 into Cam and Saric. That's REALLY good value for money. The Jerome pick I wasn't thrilled about but everyone here seemed to like it (Imagine if we'd had the foresight to draft Dort...).

Anyway...the point is....it's too soon to judge.

Tyreke Evan's could be a good example of averaging 20/6/5 as a rookie only to see his numbers decline from 20 to 10 ppg in a span of 8 years.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/evansty01.html

[Barkley6]

22/4/4/2 on 64% shooting. Every Suns fans yelling at their TV for Haliburton yet James Jones is like, " nah, I feel something special with Smith". Let's hope down the line Smith excels and becomes 75% of what Haliburton produces.

Hard to gauge it off one season where one guy is getting a lot of burn on a mediocre Kings team and the other has struggled with health on a pretty good Suns team. A good rookie season isn't always a tell of a great career, I mean people thought MCW was the next Jason Kidd based on his rookie year and now he's a journeyman who's played for 6 teams in 8 years.

Based on the way Jones has managed our draft thus far, I'm ok with it. 2019 was pretty incredible in that he was able to turn #6 into Cam and Saric. That's REALLY good value for money. The Jerome pick I wasn't thrilled about but everyone here seemed to like it (Imagine if we'd had the foresight to draft Dort...).

Anyway...the point is....it's too soon to judge.

Tyreke Evan's could be a good example of averaging 20/6/5 as a rookie only to see his numbers decline from 20 to 10 ppg in a span of 8 years.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/evansty01.html

Absolutely. Gotta look at guys 3-4 years in. Some let early success go to their head. Some get figured out by the league. Some just have inflated numbers from playing big minutes on bad teams, Marquese Chriss was an example of that. He put up some decent numbers as a rookie and while he didn't always look great doing it, everyone thought after that one season that he'd get more comfortable and improve....and it turns out that was the best he could actually offer.

[King4Day]

With the news that the Cavs are going to sit Drummond until he's dealt, if I'm Charlotte, I look at something like this:

Zeller
Biyombo
Monk
Heavily protected future first

for

Drummond

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y2zutbax

I'd also make sure he'd be willing to re-sign with them.

The fact so few teams will be able to work a legit deal for him makes me think this kind of trade will be doable.

As far as the heavily protected first, I'd make sure it's protected into the 20's. After a few years of decreasing protection (never into the lottery), it becomes 2 2nds.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Any interest in getting Collins?

Talent upgrade but not sure about fit / cost.

[RedIndian]

Nah, Collins is a nice offensive player, but he's not quick enough to guard the perimeter at the 4, and not big enough to anchor a defense at the 5.

With your bigs, unless they're absolutely transcendent on offense, the first thing you need is for them to be able to be very solid on defense, or you're going to leak buckets as a team.

Ayton has his many flaws, but he's turning out to be a very solid and consistent (if unspectacular) defender. I'd take that any day over a big who gives me 20 points a night, but is a turnstile on defense.

[Revived]

Any interest in getting Collins?

Talent upgrade but not sure about fit / cost.

I like Colllins a lot and advocated trading for him earlier. But now seeing after the players are meshing well, I’m not so sure. Thing I like about him is that he can get us inside scoring on the nights when the 3pt shot and jumpers aren’t falling.

Ideally, I’d love to pair him with Ayton because Collins can hit 3s at a decent clip plus Ayton is also capable of hitting that mid range. Would give us a strong, athletic front court too. Before I thought about trading Ayton for him but I think they can play very well together.

But I don’t know if it’s worth the cost anymore. Atlanta looking for a lotto pick apparently. They may accept Jalen Smith since he’s a lotto pick from this past draft. But they may ask for Saric or Cam Johnson as well. Don’t know if that’s worth it even though CP3/Collins pick and roll would be money as Collins is an athletic finisher.

Collins has a lot of Amare in him (with an improving defense) imo and could look really nice in a different system outside of Trae Young pounding the ball. I hope he doesn’t end up with the Spurs or any team in the West really.

[Jdiddy701]

Any interest in getting Collins?

Talent upgrade but not sure about fit / cost.

His contract situation worries me. Probably makes more sense to stay away knowing that Ayton and Mikal will be getting a contract extension soon. Whatever team can get him for a first round pick is a huge steal.


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[Mulhollanddrive]

Playoff rotation would look legit:
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Collins, Ayton
Payne, Johnson, Crowder, Saric

Go all in - Smith and 2 firsts.

If that was on the table I'd be hard pressed not to pull the trigger.

[TouchPassDario]

The depth on this team is just absurd. It's so refreshing compared to seeing scrubs starting for us in previous years. Honestly going 8-2 without Booker for 3 ganes and Paul for 1 game is crazy, let alone all the others like Saric, Payne, Nader, and Smith being out. Who would have thought Frank would be our starting PF?

JJ and Monty deserve so much credit for the culture and players we have. Definitely candidates for Coach and GM of the Year.

If the Suns manage to grab one of the top 4 seeds in the West, James Jones 100% is Executive of the Year. COTY is always a less clear cut award IMO, but Monty should be in the conversation.

Quin Synder is probably slightly ahead of Monty at this point, but those are the two primary candidates.

Utah is #1 in SRS, and they don’t even have a clear top15 player. That ~never happens. I think Rudy is borderline top15, but he cannot create any offense and is somewhat of a liability in perimeter defense which makes him susceptible to high PnR actions.

Phoenix is #6 in SRS, and they have two guys that are borderline top 20 players. That’s really impressive. The Suns also shine in 3pt defense (giving up fewest makes in the league), which is usually a sign of coaching/discipline.

I do tend to give some of the “coaching” improvement this year to Paul. He’s so influential and, well, attuned to game dynamics. I imagine the Suns are practicing much more seriously this year than in years past; I imagine that is at least somewhat attributable to Paul.

[TouchPassDario]

The offseason would have been perfect had we just nabbed haliburton. Winning heals all but god damn we would have been set for the next decade. Really an unforgivable draft decision...maybe a bigger blunder than the 2018 draft.

Also, you know that dreaded feeling we used to get when playing the Lakers during Nash's time on the Suns?

Yeah. Because it looks like we're both good teams again, that feeling is back.

I have seen reports that Halliburton forced his way to Sacramento (as bizarre as that sounds), so perhaps it would have been a mistake to draft a guy that would have have forced his way out (or at least been unmotivated and disgruntled).

[Barkley6]

With the reports Cavs are trading Drummond.....I wonder how that will affect us, if a team in the West who is in the playoff race decides that Drummond is their missing piece. I could see San Antonio put together a package around LMA and it would certainly vault them up if they added Drummond.

[bwgood77]

Phoenx, Portland, Denver going to be a tough race for home court.

Still too early. Denver has played the toughest schedule so far and Portland is without their 2nd and 3rd best players...they have to still be the best team at winning close games. Lillard's clutchness has to be among the best.

I keep thinking SA will fall off at some point.

Portland will be very tough when McCollum and Nurkic come back, but we also have an easy stretch coming up. I think we will battle with them. Denver is so deep though and their schedule will get easier. I think we can hang with them. I will be interested to see how we play against Portland if they are completely healthy.

And SA...they seem to hang with everyone.

The craziest thing in the NBA to me is the Thunder. This team hangs with EVERYONE. They nearly beat the Bucks in their first game but won the second one.

This is a team we beat by 1.

OKC, if they nail their upcoming draft picks, are going to be a tough team. Their coach has them playing harder than anyone in the NBA. No name players are doing well. They do have Horford and I don't know if they keep him and Hill for vet presences, but they likely want to tank and get young players and/or picks.

I have a feeling they will build a team like they did 10-12 years ago, not necessarily because they will nail 3 draft picks in a row, but they have so many, they will really hit on some of them.

Maledon already looks good. Poku doesn't but he is getting a lot of playing time and is the most raw rookie. He does get rebounds and some blocks, so he is really active and plays hard, but always seems to shoot like 1-8.

[TouchPassDario]

I don’t think Drummond is a difference maker. The Cavs’ backcourt is pretty decent, and he has a 50% TS, and a turnover rate commensurate with his assist rate. He does have a good offensive rebound rate, and his foul drawn rate is decent, but that’s about it. The team has been about as good with him on the floor as off, so there isn’t much hidden value either. He’s also 40th amongst centers in RPM. I don’t think he’s worth much more than a heavily protected FRP.

[Mulhollanddrive]

The 4 favourites owe 20 future 1st round picks (10 picks, 10 swaps).

[TouchPassDario]

Phoenx, Portland, Denver going to be a tough race for home court.

Still too early. Denver has played the toughest schedule so far and Portland is without their 2nd and 3rd best players...they have to still be the best team at winning close games. Lillard's clutchness has to be among the best.

I keep thinking SA will fall off at some point.

Portland will be very tough when McCollum and Nurkic come back, but we also have an easy stretch coming up. I think we will battle with them. Denver is so deep though and their schedule will get easier. I think we can hang with them. I will be interested to see how we play against Portland if they are completely healthy.

And SA...they seem to hang with everyone.

The craziest thing in the NBA to me is the Thunder. This team hangs with EVERYONE. They nearly beat the Bucks in their first game but won the second one.

This is a team we beat by 1.

OKC, if they nail their upcoming draft picks, are going to be a tough team. Their coach has them playing harder than anyone in the NBA. No name players are doing well. They do have Horford and I don't know if they keep him and Hill for vet presences, but they likely want to tank and get young players and/or picks.

I have a feeling they will build a team like they did 10-12 years ago, not necessarily because they will nail 3 draft picks in a row, but they have so many, they will really hit on some of them.

Maledon already looks good. Poku doesn't but he is getting a lot of playing time and is the most raw rookie. He does get rebounds and some blocks, so he is really active and plays hard, but always seems to shoot like 1-8.

Portland is 16th in SRS, and they were .5pts/100 better with McCollum than without (against fairly equivalent competition in both samples): 8-5 both with him and without him so far this year. Nurkic isn’t that much more impactful than Kanter (who has taken his minutes during the injury) and Giles is not that much appreciably worse either in his expanded role.

Portland and San Antonio (15th SRS) are both playing over their skis and I expect both to come down somewhat (even when McCollum comes back—see above) over the next couple months.

Denver (5th SRS and 2-1 against us) is the bigger concern as a first round match-up. But I still think we are a little better at full health than Denver, and I think we beat them in a 7-game series w/HCA.

Utah
Clippers
Suns
Nuggets
Lakers (assuming AD misses 4-6 weeks priced in)
Portland
San Antonio
Golden State

Is how I see it shaking out. Clippers are a tough match for us with their elite perimeter defense.

[bwgood77]

Phoenx, Portland, Denver going to be a tough race for home court.

Still too early. Denver has played the toughest schedule so far and Portland is without their 2nd and 3rd best players...they have to still be the best team at winning close games. Lillard's clutchness has to be among the best.

I keep thinking SA will fall off at some point.

Portland will be very tough when McCollum and Nurkic come back, but we also have an easy stretch coming up. I think we will battle with them. Denver is so deep though and their schedule will get easier. I think we can hang with them. I will be interested to see how we play against Portland if they are completely healthy.

And SA...they seem to hang with everyone.

The craziest thing in the NBA to me is the Thunder. This team hangs with EVERYONE. They nearly beat the Bucks in their first game but won the second one.

This is a team we beat by 1.

OKC, if they nail their upcoming draft picks, are going to be a tough team. Their coach has them playing harder than anyone in the NBA. No name players are doing well. They do have Horford and I don't know if they keep him and Hill for vet presences, but they likely want to tank and get young players and/or picks.

I have a feeling they will build a team like they did 10-12 years ago, not necessarily because they will nail 3 draft picks in a row, but they have so many, they will really hit on some of them.

Maledon already looks good. Poku doesn't but he is getting a lot of playing time and is the most raw rookie. He does get rebounds and some blocks, so he is really active and plays hard, but always seems to shoot like 1-8.

Portland is 16th in SRS, and they were .5pts/100 better with McCollum than without (against fairly equivalent competition in both samples): 8-5 both with him and without him so far this year. Nurkic isn’t that much more impactful than Kanter (who has taken his minutes during the injury) and Giles is not that much appreciably worse either in his expanded role.

Portland and San Antonio (15th SRS) are both playing over their skis and I expect both to come down somewhat (even when McCollum comes back—see above) over the next couple months.

Denver (5th SRS and 2-1 against us) is the bigger concern as a first round match-up. But I still think we are a little better at full health than Denver, and I think we beat them in a 7-game series w/HCA.

Utah
Clippers
Suns
Nuggets
Lakers (assuming AD misses 4-6 weeks priced in)
Portland
San Antonio
Golden State

Is how I see it shaking out. Clippers are a tough match for us with their elite perimeter defense.

Yeah, Portland winning those close games is what keeps them tough. I don't know if their schedule was tougher when McCollum is healthy, but I think since SRS takes into account margin of victory (in addition to SOS) that their slim margin of victory due to being able to win close games, makes their SRS look worse than they are.

Just remember Nurkic was out for a LONG time and came back at the tail end of last year. He is a VERY versatile C who gets like 4-5 assists, blocks, can defend, score and do a little bit of everything.

He wasn't as good in his few games this season as his games last season where he was at 17.6, 10.3, 4 ast, 2 blocks and 1.3 steals...he also just started shooting 3s, though not at a good % yet. But I would be that no Cs or very few put up 17/10/4/2/1.3.

Jokic would probably hit everything but the blocks and maybe a bit short on boards, but more pts/assists. I don't see anyone else, except maybe Bam. Vucevic may hit close to that too and can hit 3s..though isn't as good defensively as Nurkic or Bam.

Nurkic is a heck of a lot better than Kanter though. Teams are regularly worse with Kanter on the floor..more easy baskets at the rim for the opponent.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Lonzo has come good to make that a bit interesting too.

Shot 40%+ from three in 10 of last 11 games, 90% from FT, might be getting confidence from his brother doing it.

[WeekapaugGroove]

My take on John Collins is if we had an owner who would be willing to go deep into the tax id be cool with trading for him. But we don't and I prioritize Ayton and Bridges over him and maybe even Cam so it's hard to see how the money would work long-term especially considering they will have to do something at the PG spot post Paul.

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[TouchPassDario]

Still too early. Denver has played the toughest schedule so far and Portland is without their 2nd and 3rd best players...they have to still be the best team at winning close games. Lillard's clutchness has to be among the best.

I keep thinking SA will fall off at some point.

Portland will be very tough when McCollum and Nurkic come back, but we also have an easy stretch coming up. I think we will battle with them. Denver is so deep though and their schedule will get easier. I think we can hang with them. I will be interested to see how we play against Portland if they are completely healthy.

And SA...they seem to hang with everyone.

The craziest thing in the NBA to me is the Thunder. This team hangs with EVERYONE. They nearly beat the Bucks in their first game but won the second one.

This is a team we beat by 1.

OKC, if they nail their upcoming draft picks, are going to be a tough team. Their coach has them playing harder than anyone in the NBA. No name players are doing well. They do have Horford and I don't know if they keep him and Hill for vet presences, but they likely want to tank and get young players and/or picks.

I have a feeling they will build a team like they did 10-12 years ago, not necessarily because they will nail 3 draft picks in a row, but they have so many, they will really hit on some of them.

Maledon already looks good. Poku doesn't but he is getting a lot of playing time and is the most raw rookie. He does get rebounds and some blocks, so he is really active and plays hard, but always seems to shoot like 1-8.

Portland is 16th in SRS, and they were .5pts/100 better with McCollum than without (against fairly equivalent competition in both samples): 8-5 both with him and without him so far this year. Nurkic isn’t that much more impactful than Kanter (who has taken his minutes during the injury) and Giles is not that much appreciably worse either in his expanded role.

Portland and San Antonio (15th SRS) are both playing over their skis and I expect both to come down somewhat (even when McCollum comes back—see above) over the next couple months.

Denver (5th SRS and 2-1 against us) is the bigger concern as a first round match-up. But I still think we are a little better at full health than Denver, and I think we beat them in a 7-game series w/HCA.

Utah
Clippers
Suns
Nuggets
Lakers (assuming AD misses 4-6 weeks priced in)
Portland
San Antonio
Golden State

Is how I see it shaking out. Clippers are a tough match for us with their elite perimeter defense.

Yeah, Portland winning those close games is what keeps them tough. I don't know if their schedule was tougher when McCollum is healthy, but I think since SRS takes into account margin of victory (in addition to SOS) that their slim margin of victory due to being able to win close games, makes their SRS look worse than they are.

Just remember Nurkic was out for a LONG time and came back at the tail end of last year. He is a VERY versatile C who gets like 4-5 assists, blocks, can defend, score and do a little bit of everything.

He wasn't as good in his few games this season as his games last season where he was at 17.6, 10.3, 4 ast, 2 blocks and 1.3 steals...he also just started shooting 3s, though not at a good % yet. But I would be that no Cs or very few put up 17/10/4/2/1.3.

Jokic would probably hit everything but the blocks and maybe a bit short on boards, but more pts/assists. I don't see anyone else, except maybe Bam. Vucevic may hit close to that too and can hit 3s..though isn't as good defensively as Nurkic or Bam.

Nurkic is a heck of a lot better than Kanter though. Teams are regularly worse with Kanter on the floor..more easy baskets at the rim for the opponent.

Lillard can throw daggers and kill you—in close games. He can also play a ton of minutes when needed without losing much efficiency. I just don’t think Portland is good enough to stay attached to Phoenix for a 7-game series, with both teams at full health, for Lillard’s late-game heroics to enter the frame.

Portland’s 8-5 start with CJ, included 4 20-pt + losses and a loss at home to Chicago.

Since CJ has been out, Portland has only 1 20-pt loss.

His usefulness is largely redundant with Lillard because he doesn’t really create offense for others—this is what makes Paul/Book so lethal.

Nurkic just doesn’t really do anything for me. He has a 51% TS and turns it over a ton. On a team with Lillard that is awful. He’s +3.4 on/off this year and Kanter is +5.5. Last year Nurkic was -0.3 in regular season and -21 (not a typo) in playoffs. Last year Kanter was +4.3 regular season, and +10.6 playoffs. Not sure the old narrative applies.

[bwgood77]

Playoff rotation would look legit:
Paul, Booker, Bridges, Collins, Ayton
Payne, Johnson, Crowder, Saric

Go all in - Smith and 2 firsts.

If that was on the table I'd be hard pressed not to pull the trigger.

No way they go into the tax for him...deep into it. He wants a max.

And no way I'd give up two firsts for a guy like that, especially a guy like that wanting the max. We need more versatile defenders at the 4 anyway.

Trading firsts is too hard anyway. It would have to be a 2024 and 2026 pick, and those would move back if our pick in 2022 for Paul ends up protected.

I don't care about the picks as much outside of needing rookie contracts which are the most valuable if you can hit on the rookies because they are so cost controlled, especially if you have a max guy and two other likely near max guys.