2024-25 Season Discussion and Speculation Part IV

[Saberestar]

Duane Rankin

Suns superstar Kevin Durant (ankle) said he's looking forward to playing Tuesday against Memphis.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[bwgood77]

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So if this is correct, We still can't drop below the 2nd apron even if we waive both of Martin/Micic? We'd still be 10 million to 15 million over. Anyone hav further clarification on this?

I don't believe this is correct.

Could be we drop below the 2nd apron but not the first.

[lilfishi22]

The Luka trade is very bad if you just take it at face value. But look at Paul George, look at Ben Simmons, look at Bradley Beal, look at Kawhi Leonard, look at Zion etc.

Mavericks owners saw Luka every day, they saw the people he hangs out with, he saw the lack of work ethic. As a 25 year old, you'd think he would be ripped or lean and full of motivation. But he's a bit of a slob.. or lazy in regards to body maintenance. He also has a LOT of mileage even though he's young, and its fair to assume that the medical team flagged that Luka is high risk for a huge decline once he hits 30 or he is high risk for injuries that would lead to him missing games.

Its all reasonable for owners who put emphasis on risks.

Also, it could also be his diva behaviour and his intent to leave for bigger spotlights once he secures the super max. The CBA has made it very hard to trade once you're over the apron as Suns have found out.

Another factor could be that Luka is networking with people that doesnt align with the Mavericks ownership.

Another one could be that the Mavericks owner have plans to clean house in 2 years to maybe sell the team, so big long contracts could complicate that. Mavericks owners apparently have big interest in Vegas due to their business interests. Mavericks could be a short term investment to flip once Vegas becomes more feasible.


Also, Davis is no slouch, he had a healthy 2024 season and has played a lot this season, so he looked relatively healthy apart from that abdominal strain that now has re-surfaced and he could be out a month at best.

My biggest issue is that Mavericks should have asked for 3 first rounders at minimum.... but Pelinka using Luka's fitness as bargaining tool also could really be a risk or issue and Mavericks owner didn't want Lakers to backout because once Luka finds out he was being shopped he would probably do a Jimmy Butler and hold the team hostage until he gets what he wants.

I still think this is a lot of cope but it's exactly along the lines of what my Mavs mate was explaining to me. I think there could be merit to Luka being more a detriment to himself than what's shown on surface but at the end of the day, you're betting you're better with AD in the next 3 years than you are with Luka over the next 10 and by better, you better win a title with AD.

Ultimately, if Mavs think they got fair value and they win it all, who's the say they didn't win the trade after all?

[lilfishi22]

Kyrie can opt out meaning he has the Mavs bent over a barrel. It sounds like ownership is on board with Nico Harrison or it was their idea to move on from Luka based on some quotes. We’ve never seen a team bet against their franchise player like this. It’d be like the Suns trading Steve Nash in
2006 because of defense and back problems. Just completely misguided priorities.

By most accounts, it would appear as though it was ownership who gave Nico the directive to move Luka rather than Nico necessarily bringing it to them.

But there will likely be flow on effects with how the Mavs did Luka. Doesn't seem like Kyrie was particularly happy, Klay came onboard to play with Luka, Lively won't be getting those sweet sweet lobs anymore and Kidd looks absolutely dejected at the press conference given Luka arguably gave him a new lease on life after a pretty crap head coaching run in Milwaukee and Brooklyn.

Maybe they'll continue to stay united and keep things going but losing Luka is tough

[lilfishi22]

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So if this is correct, We still can't drop below the 2nd apron even if we waive both of Martin/Micic? We'd still be 10 million to 15 million over. Anyone hav further clarification on this?

My understanding is that it does get us under the 2nd apron but what moves we make has to keep us under otherwise those moves won't be allowed.

[dremill24]

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So if this is correct, We still can't drop below the 2nd apron even if we waive both of Martin/Micic? We'd still be 10 million to 15 million over. Anyone hav further clarification on this?

I don't believe this is correct.

Could be we drop below the 2nd apron but not the first.

Doing some very rough math based on estimates of next year's cap/apron thresholds...

They could probably be barely under if they cut Martin, Micic, Richards, renounce all FA cap holds and don't use any draft picks while accounting for 5 open roster charges. I forget off the top of my head whether the open roster charges count...that'd be like $5mil either way.

I don't really see them letting Richards walk and I'm sure they'll use a draft pick or two, which likely puts them right back around the threshold.

I dunno...cutting those guys gets them close enough to the threshold for them to get under with an unbalanced (monetary) trade, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they're just straight under it from cutting those 2. Plus as soon as you do anything that you're not allowed to do when over the second apron, you're hard capped at that apron. So even something like the tax payer MLE is like $5-7mil in full, so you have to be far enough below the apron to use that and fill out your roster without going over.

The most tangible thing I see is cutting those 2 guys gets them reasonably close enough to truly clear it after doing something like a KD deal where they send out his $54mil and only take back like $35-40mil or something to that effect. With Nurkic on the books, that wouldn't really be feasible.

[lilfishi22]

I don't believe this is correct.

Could be we drop below the 2nd apron but not the first.

Doing some very rough math based on estimates of next year's cap/apron thresholds...

They could probably be barely under if they cut Martin, Micic, Richards, renounce all FA cap holds and don't use any draft picks while accounting for 5 open roster charges. I forget off the top of my head whether the open roster charges count...that'd be like $5mil either way.

I don't really see them letting Richards walk and I'm sure they'll use a draft pick or two, which likely puts them right back around the threshold.

I dunno...cutting those guys gets them close enough to the threshold for them to get under with an unbalanced (monetary) trade, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they're just straight under it from cutting those 2. Plus as soon as you do anything that you're not allowed to do when over the second apron, you're hard capped at that apron. So even something like the tax payer MLE is like $5-7mil in full, so you have to be far enough below the apron to use that and fill out your roster without going over.

The most tangible thing I see is cutting those 2 guys gets them reasonably close enough to truly clear it after doing something like a KD deal where they send out his $54mil and only take back like $35-40mil or something to that effect. With Nurkic on the books, that wouldn't really be feasible.

Yeah actually looking more into it. We can get nominally under the 2nd apron while retaining the key guys and Richards but we'll be ~$10m under only and you still need to fill the roster with vet mins and we'll be pretty close to the 2nd apron again. That's without using the tax payer MLE.

I do believe the main flexibility we gain is is just being able to package players.

[Qwigglez]

My favorite part of KD talking to the media.

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[bwgood77]

I don't believe this is correct.

Could be we drop below the 2nd apron but not the first.

Doing some very rough math based on estimates of next year's cap/apron thresholds...

They could probably be barely under if they cut Martin, Micic, Richards, renounce all FA cap holds and don't use any draft picks while accounting for 5 open roster charges. I forget off the top of my head whether the open roster charges count...that'd be like $5mil either way.

I don't really see them letting Richards walk and I'm sure they'll use a draft pick or two, which likely puts them right back around the threshold.

I dunno...cutting those guys gets them close enough to the threshold for them to get under with an unbalanced (monetary) trade, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they're just straight under it from cutting those 2. Plus as soon as you do anything that you're not allowed to do when over the second apron, you're hard capped at that apron. So even something like the tax payer MLE is like $5-7mil in full, so you have to be far enough below the apron to use that and fill out your roster without going over.

The most tangible thing I see is cutting those 2 guys gets them reasonably close enough to truly clear it after doing something like a KD deal where they send out his $54mil and only take back like $35-40mil or something to that effect. With Nurkic on the books, that wouldn't really be feasible.

Now if you are above the second apron but are going to do a trade of like KD for a package that only brings back, say $35 million, so you'd then be under the second apron, can you then take back multiple players if the end result puts you under?

I don't know how many teams that would want KD will have cap space to absorb extra salary. Probably not any. I know you can go like 125% of salary or something like that but it seems like there are a lot of apron teams. Like Minnesota, they are over the second apron as well, right?

[lilfishi22]

My favorite part of KD talking to the media.

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100% on point

If it came from Gambo, Bourguet or Olson who are actually much closer to the team, yeah then I would say there's something there.

[lilfishi22]

Could be we drop below the 2nd apron but not the first.

Doing some very rough math based on estimates of next year's cap/apron thresholds...

They could probably be barely under if they cut Martin, Micic, Richards, renounce all FA cap holds and don't use any draft picks while accounting for 5 open roster charges. I forget off the top of my head whether the open roster charges count...that'd be like $5mil either way.

I don't really see them letting Richards walk and I'm sure they'll use a draft pick or two, which likely puts them right back around the threshold.

I dunno...cutting those guys gets them close enough to the threshold for them to get under with an unbalanced (monetary) trade, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they're just straight under it from cutting those 2. Plus as soon as you do anything that you're not allowed to do when over the second apron, you're hard capped at that apron. So even something like the tax payer MLE is like $5-7mil in full, so you have to be far enough below the apron to use that and fill out your roster without going over.

The most tangible thing I see is cutting those 2 guys gets them reasonably close enough to truly clear it after doing something like a KD deal where they send out his $54mil and only take back like $35-40mil or something to that effect. With Nurkic on the books, that wouldn't really be feasible.

Now if you are above the second apron but are going to do a trade of like KD for a package that only brings back, say $35 million, so you'd then be under the second apron, can you then take back multiple players if the end result puts you under?

I don't know how many teams that would want KD will have cap space to absorb extra salary. Probably not any. I know you can go like 125% of salary or something like that but it seems like there are a lot of apron teams. Like Minnesota, they are over the second apron as well, right?

Yes

If my calcs are right, without Micic and Martin and replacing KD with ~$20m less salary (net $36-37m reduction in salary), we're at around $182m in salary. Plus 5 cap holds for vet mins and we're at around $192m. A smidge under the estimate $198m 1st apron and possible room for a tax payer MLE at around $5.1m

As you said, I think it's unlikely we'll be able to find a team that would want KD and have significant cap space to absorb KD to give us a net $20m reduction in salary.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[dremill24]

Could be we drop below the 2nd apron but not the first.

Doing some very rough math based on estimates of next year's cap/apron thresholds...

They could probably be barely under if they cut Martin, Micic, Richards, renounce all FA cap holds and don't use any draft picks while accounting for 5 open roster charges. I forget off the top of my head whether the open roster charges count...that'd be like $5mil either way.

I don't really see them letting Richards walk and I'm sure they'll use a draft pick or two, which likely puts them right back around the threshold.

I dunno...cutting those guys gets them close enough to the threshold for them to get under with an unbalanced (monetary) trade, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they're just straight under it from cutting those 2. Plus as soon as you do anything that you're not allowed to do when over the second apron, you're hard capped at that apron. So even something like the tax payer MLE is like $5-7mil in full, so you have to be far enough below the apron to use that and fill out your roster without going over.

The most tangible thing I see is cutting those 2 guys gets them reasonably close enough to truly clear it after doing something like a KD deal where they send out his $54mil and only take back like $35-40mil or something to that effect. With Nurkic on the books, that wouldn't really be feasible.

Now if you are above the second apron but are going to do a trade of like KD for a package that only brings back, say $35 million, so you'd then be under the second apron, can you then take back multiple players if the end result puts you under?

I don't know how many teams that would want KD will have cap space to absorb extra salary. Probably not any. I know you can go like 125% of salary or something like that but it seems like there are a lot of apron teams. Like Minnesota, they are over the second apron as well, right?

You can take back multiple players no matter your apron status as long as you're adhering to all the other rules. And yes, the apron rules apply based on your status AFTER the transaction. Thats why just being under the apron alone doesnt allow you to use the TPMLE, you have to be far enough under to use it and still be under. Also why you could aggregate outgoing salaries together if you start the trade over the 2nd apron but end up under it by cutting salary in the deal.

Yeah you're probably not getting a crazy $20mil disparity in a KD trade, but there could be a Houston or something who is below the 1st apron that can take on some money. Could also rope in a 3rd team way below to take some of their outgoing salary too, reducing the incoming number for PHX. Maybe you can cut $10mil to gain access to the TPMLE, aggregate, and send out cash. But you'll be hard capped at the 2nd apron (maybe not so bad) so theres a limit to what you can do. Minny is over the 2nd apron, yes but have potential free agents (Randle namely) that could impact that.

As long as you've got $150+mil tied up in 3 guys, you're gonna be straddling that line.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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I'd honestly like either or possibly both!! No joke. Great low key depth pieces if it were to happen.

[Qwigglez]

The Lakers bout to tap into the potential of Alex Len.

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I honestly expected Alex Len's career to be much better than it has been. I think I expected him to be able to average 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.5-2 blocks per game, at least a couple of seasons.

[lilfishi22]

The Lakers bout to tap into the potential of Alex Len.

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I honestly expected Alex Len's career to be much better than it has been. I think I expected him to be able to average 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.5-2 blocks per game, at least a couple of seasons.

After his stint with the Suns, I'm a tiny bit surprised he's had a strong decade plus in the league. We knew that was going to be one of the worst drafts in recent history (perhaps of all time) so I wasn't expecting a ton and Len didn't really show much in 5 seasons with the Suns so I didn't really expect him to stick around in the league. Look, it wasn't bad given it's a weak draft so it wasn't really a bust but it was also not like a winner either, just a solid role player.

But at the end of the day, if you have a solid 12 seasons in the league playing mostly decent rotation minutes for most of your career, I think that's considered pretty successful from a personal career standpoint. Especially considering the NBA was quickly moving towards more mobile, more skilled and better shooting bigs whereas Len was pretty one dimensional. But 680 games across 12 NBA seasons is pretty damn good

[Ghost of Kleine]

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