2016 Draft

[saintEscaton]

Yeah Jaylen is putting on a show against UCLA on ESPN right now. He's like a rawer/less defensively oriented version of Stanimal with more offensive versatility, explosiveness and fluidity. he can outmuscle you in the paint, split defenders off the dribble and finish with ferocity at will . Some electrifying throwdowns tonight. The two way upside is definitely there. TJ hasn't shown me enough to prove that he's the total package. We can platoon them together, with TJ getting significant minutes as the 6th man and when Jaylen slides over to the small ball 4, he has the girth.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I'm waivering on Ingram, hopefully he can get back into form when it counts.

[AtheJ415]

Yeah Jaylen is putting on a show against UCLA on ESPN right now. He's like a rawer/less defensively oriented version of Stanimal with more offensive versatility, explosiveness and fluidity. he can outmuscle you in the paint, split defenders off the dribble and finish with ferocity at will . Some electrifying throwdowns tonight. The two way upside is definitely there. TJ hasn't shown me enough to prove that he's the total package. We can platoon them together, with TJ getting significant minutes as the 6th man and when Jaylen slides over to the small ball 4, he has the girth.

I don't mind Brown, but I feel like we'll end up in the top 2 (yes the lottery would still have to work out), but I think we'll end up there. Besides, as much as I like Brown, our biggest need is PF and Bender is impressive on his own right. He's a great fit for our system. I'd be really surprised if we didn't pick him and we had the 3rd pick.

[AtheJ415]

I'm waivering on Ingram, hopefully he can get back into form when it counts.

I still think he's who we should take no matter how he plays down the stretch. His shooting form is awesome, and he has proven to be a shooter in the past even though his current struggles have dropped those numbers. With his form, balance, and length/size, I don't really doubt at all that he'll be a great shooter at the NBA level.

He handles it better than I expected, and his length gives him some defensive potential. It makes things interesting with Warren due to the fact that they're both offensively minded SF/PF guys, but you take the best player and see if it works. Make the tough decision if/when you have to.

I just feel like Simmons is more likely to bust because his greatest asset is his rareness, but I'm not convinced he can run a team better than a traditional PG. If he can't stretch the floor for us and has a limited defensive ceiling due to his low wingspan, then he only has value to the extent he can rebound better than PF's and run the team better than PG's. Grading him out based on his ability to run the team compared to PF's is faulty imo because other PF's never play that role, other PG's do. I just don't want to be the team that takes that risk if Ingram is there to pick.

[saintEscaton]

I'm waivering on Ingram, hopefully he can get back into form when it counts.

I still think he's who we should take no matter how he plays down the stretch. His shooting form is awesome, and he has proven to be a shooter in the past even though his current struggles have dropped those numbers. With his form, balance, and length/size, I don't really doubt at all that he'll be a great shooter at the NBA level.

He handles it better than I expected, and his length gives him some defensive potential. It makes things interesting with Warren due to the fact that they're both offensively minded SF/PF guys, but you take the best player and see if it works. Make the tough decision if/when you have to.

I just feel like Simmons is more likely to bust because his greatest asset is his rareness, but I'm not convinced he can run a team better than a traditional PG. If he can't stretch the floor for us and has a limited defensive ceiling due to his low wingspan, then he only has value to the extent he can rebound better than PF's and run the team better than PG's. Grading him out based on his ability to run the team compared to PF's is faulty imo because other PF's never play that role, other PG's do. I just don't want to be the team that takes that risk if Ingram is there to pick.

Thats why I hope we get the second pick so we don't have to make that decision, we just take whoever is left (hopefully Ingram). The national media pundits would probably roast us if we pass on Simmons with the first pick but I wouldn't care

[AtheJ415]

I'm waivering on Ingram, hopefully he can get back into form when it counts.

I still think he's who we should take no matter how he plays down the stretch. His shooting form is awesome, and he has proven to be a shooter in the past even though his current struggles have dropped those numbers. With his form, balance, and length/size, I don't really doubt at all that he'll be a great shooter at the NBA level.

He handles it better than I expected, and his length gives him some defensive potential. It makes things interesting with Warren due to the fact that they're both offensively minded SF/PF guys, but you take the best player and see if it works. Make the tough decision if/when you have to.

I just feel like Simmons is more likely to bust because his greatest asset is his rareness, but I'm not convinced he can run a team better than a traditional PG. If he can't stretch the floor for us and has a limited defensive ceiling due to his low wingspan, then he only has value to the extent he can rebound better than PF's and run the team better than PG's. Grading him out based on his ability to run the team compared to PF's is faulty imo because other PF's never play that role, other PG's do. I just don't want to be the team that takes that risk if Ingram is there to pick.

Thats why I hope we get the second pick so we don't have to make that decision, we just take whoever is left (hopefully Ingram). The national media pundits would probably roast us if we pass on Simmons with the first pick but I wouldn't care

Yeah, but I still hope we get the 1st one anyways because if a team wants Simmons maybe we could trade down to 2. Or you never know, I could see the 76ers preferring Ingram given their logjam at the 4 and 5.

I still like Simmons and think he has potential. I won't be upset at all if he's who we go with, but I just hope we pick Ingram if he's there. With Simmons, he has greater defensive potential due to his quickness than he's shown, but I am not sure how he'd react to not handling the ball every possession, and while his speed and quickness at his size are rare, it's a risk whether he'll ever be a shooter and he simply hasn't shown a desire to play defense. In every interview he defines himself as a point forward, and the truth is a Boris Diaw/Evan Turner skillset isn't that great at the #1 pick all things considered. Even the successful point forwards aren't all that special in this league. Turkoglu, Kyle Anderson, Diaw, Turner are the main ones in the last few years. Lebron is the exception. Lebron is the guy he's trying to model himself after (obviously he's not a Lebron level athlete, but that's who he would like to be), but to become a real star in this league he's going to need to learn to shoot and defend, something Lebron was always much further along on. Can he buy into being a guy who runs a few possessions and spaces the floor or be a rebounder on others? Because right now it does seem like he's only a menace with the ball in his hands and when he wants to be on the boards.

[Bogyo]

Yeah, the more I watch him the more he reminds me of a young Diaw. If you care enough dig out some youtube videos from his old days in europe. Too bad his mindset also reminds me of our once-belowed croissant boy.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I still love Simmons and think he's almost becoming underrated.

There's 145 seasons ever played (min 2000 minutes) where players averaged 15 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists.

120 of them were played by All-Stars.

Even if Simmons doesn't get much better, he should accomplish that feat at some stage.

[MathiasPW]

[
Yup, and Bender is probably the best fit at PF for us from a playing style perspective. I don't understand why so many are down on him. Sure, there's always risk with Euro players, but he clearly has the skills to fit our scheme. His mobility and size is rare, and his improved shooting is promising.

Uncertainty due to small sample size & different league, and chance of only having him here in a few years, when we desperately need him to start now.

[King4Day]

If I have my numbers correct, we just need to win one game and then we don't have to worry about breaking the losing streak record.
So let's win our next game and then whatever happens, happens.

[King4Day]

If we can get a guy like Ingram or Simmons and bring over Bogdon. Then maybe trade our remaining two firsts along with Tucker or Knight, maybe, for a solid talent, it could really fast forward our rebuild.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Simmons or bust for me.

I would say any other player is a 15% chance of becoming an All-Star at best.

That's basically the prototype of the draft though 80% of no.1s become All-Stars and about 15% of the rest of the lottery.

I don't see this group exceeding that.

[jcsunsfan]

If we can get a guy like Ingram or Simmons and bring over Bogdon. Then maybe trade our remaining two firsts along with Tucker or Knight, maybe, for a solid talent, it could really fast forward our rebuild.

I agree with this. This roster could change in a huge way for the better this summer.

Add back injured returnees: Bledsoe, TJ, Knight, and to a lesser extent Chandler
Add draft picks: Potential #1 or 2 pick.
Add previous draft pick: Bogdan
AND lots of FA cash to spend if necessary.

[Twuan89]

Since 2006 there have only been two NBA teams that finished with the 3rd worst record and won the lottery as the 1st overall pick in the draft and that was the Clippers in 2009 & Cavs in 2013. The rest either stayed #3 or moved down a few spots.

[kennydorglas]

I Think Dragan has a way-out of his contract if he's drafted in the top5.
if this is true , i'd be more than fine with him

[bwgood77]

Since 2006 there have only been two NBA teams that finished with the 3rd worst record and won the lottery as the 1st overall pick in the draft and that was the Clippers in 2009 & Cavs in 2013. The rest either stayed #3 or moved down a few spots.

So it has won the lottery more than the odds would project in the last 9 or 10 years. Twice out of 9 or 10. With the third worst record, you have a 15.6% chance (or 156 of the possible 1000 ping pong results), which would theoretically project to only winning about 1 every 6.4 years or so.

[bwgood77]

Is Ben Simmons still the No. 1 pick?


Chad Ford: We're nearing the end of the college basketball season. LSU's Ben Simmons has sat atop the Big Board since I published the first one in July. Eight months later, he still looks like the favorite among NBA scouts and executives to be the No. 1 pick.

But he does have competition. Duke's Brandon Ingram has been improving all season, and his combination of elite size and scoring ability at small forward is highly attractive to NBA teams. Factor in Simmons' shooting woes and LSU's struggles to make the NCAA tournament and we might have a legit two-man race for the No. 1 pick.

What do the stats say, Kevin? How close are these two in your projections?

Kevin Pelton: There was a stretch of a few weeks where Ingram had the better WARP projection, before the recent shooting slump that has seen him make just 34.0 percent of his 2-point attempts in February.

However, that's largely because of the nature of my projection system. As we've discussed in the past, it's designed to adjust for fluky, outlier performance that won't likely continue in the NBA.

Because that's tied to positional averages, my projections don't believe anyone can truly be as good at both rebounding and playmaking as Simmons has been this season. As he continues to prove his performance is no fluke, Simmons' projection will improve with the same level of play.

When we look at unadjusted stats on Sports-Reference.com, the difference between Simmons and Ingram in terms of production becomes much wider. Simmons has the sixth-best score among freshmen in box plus-minus (a form of statistical plus-minus akin to what helps inform ESPN's real plus-minus) in the Sports-Reference.com database back through 2010-11, behind Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Cody Zeller. By contrast, Ingram's BPM ranks 51st among freshmen over that span -- very good, certainly, but not elite.

Whose skills are more unique: Ingram's or Simmons'?

Pelton: Are there reasons scouts believe that Ingram can close that gap in the NBA?

Ford: I think in January, when Ingram was shooting the ball at a much higher clip, the thinking was this: The way the league is evolving, Ingram's shooting ability at his size might trump Simmons' passing and rebounding skills.

In a league where the Warriors are flirting with the best record ever, having an elite shooter, especially a 6-foot-10 one like Ingram, is a rare and valuable commodity. However, I think they might be underestimating just how gifted Simmons really is. Ingram projects as a good shooter. Simmons projects as an elite rebounder and passer.

Can we estimate the relative worth of these skills in a forward?

Pelton: That's tough because there's not really a big sample to draw from in terms of elite rebounding and passing, is there?

Before applying the regression factor, Simmons' LSU stats translate to an NBA equivalent of a rebound rate near 15 percent and an assist rate near six per 100 plays. There's precisely one NBA player who can meet both of those standards this season: Joakim Noah. Draymond Green (14.5 percent rebound rate) and Blake Griffin (13.5 percent) are close.

This is sort of making the argument for Simmons, right?

I think one factor that works in Simmons' favor is the growing value the NBA puts on passing out of big men, with Green as a primary example. The playmaking 4, as popularized by ESPN's Zach Lowe, has become nearly as important as the stretch 4.

To me, the biggest opportunity for offenses in the game today is when a guard gets trapped on the pick-and-roll and throws to the screener, who then has to make a play with a man advantage (there are four offensive players involved and just three defenders). When executed properly, this tends to lead to dunks and wide-open corner 3s.

Nobody is better at this than Green. Well, guess who Simmons' best comparison is via SCHOENE? Draymond Green, and nobody else is particularly close.

Who are comparisons for Ingram and Simmons?

Pelton: I know they have very different body types and motors, but have you heard anyone else draw the Green comparison?

Ford: Yes. And I believe this is why the overwhelming majority of NBA folks think Simmons will be the No. 1 pick. What if Green were 6-foot-10 and athletic? Players that perform like Simmons rarely have his size and athletic abilities.

That said, how much will his lack of shooting affect Simmons' ceiling in the NBA? Green was a career 36 percent 3-point shooter in college and has shot 34 percent in the NBA. Simmons won't even take midrange jumpers right now. Would Green be as effective if he lacked a serviceable jumper?

And if a bigger, more athletic Draymond Green is the best current comp for Simmons, what about Ingram? Rick Pitino compared Ingram to Kevin Durant last week (before Louisville held him to three baskets and forced 10 turnovers from Ingram). That's seems overly optimistic, though.

Last time we discussed Ingram, I felt like Paul George was a better comp. I still like that one. You were leaning toward Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Where do you see him now?

Pelton: Well, I think Blake Griffin is an interesting example in that regard. He was an even worse free throw shooter than Simmons in college and early in his NBA career before developing into a solid midrange shooter, albeit not a 3-point threat.

Griffin's shooting isn't really an issue when the ball is in his hands, but we've seen the last couple of years how much better Chris Paul-DeAndre Jordan pick-and-rolls work with a spacer at power forward rather than Griffin.

As Griffin's example shows, shooting is not a fixed thing. The same is true of Green, who made two 3-pointers in 17 attempts his first two seasons at Michigan State before making 89 as an upperclassmen. A lot of Simmons' future will be tied to how much he can develop as a shooter.

That same question also applies to Ingram, despite his success beyond the arc. He looms as one of the most interesting test cases yet for my research finding that college free throw percentage predicts NBA 3-point percentage as well as college 3-point percentage.

As good a 3-point shooter as he has been (40.8 percent), Ingram has only been marginally better at the foul line than Simmons (67.5 percent to 67.2 percent). Ingram's attempted more 3s than free throws, so this isn't exactly Justise Winslow hitting 41.8 percent of 3s in a smaller sample (110 attempts) last year at Duke. Still, 3-point percentage tends to be volatile over hundreds of attempts and Ingram may just be riding a hot streak beyond the arc.

Ingram's statistical similarity to George has declined as the season has gone on, and I do think the 3-point ability he has shown distinguishes him from Antetokounmpo.

Intriguingly, SCHOENE now favors another Milwaukee wing: Khris Middleton. Ingram is much bigger than Middleton, but I remember how much Middleton reminded me of Durant when I first saw him play in college. And a "rich man's Middleton" is probably fairer to Ingram as a comparison than players as good as Durant and George.

Can Ingram still pass Simmons?

Pelton: Let's wrap up by posing this question: What could Ingram do the rest of the season to jump Simmons on draft boards?

Ford: It will be interesting. LSU is unlikely to play in the NCAA tournament unless they win the SEC tourney. In other words, Simmons' run is almost over, and it's shown.

His lackluster game on Saturday drew a ton of criticism. Some are raising questions about his competitiveness and the poor performance of his team. But the large majority of NBA folks I speak with think that's nonsense.

He had poor body language in a game where he was taken out of the starting lineup for academic reasons. It happens. Overall, scouts rate his character very highly. It's a selling point, not a detraction, for those who have done their homework.

Nevertheless, it creates an opening for Ingram. If he gets hot in the NCAA tournament -- especially if he starts hitting 3s and Duke can return to the Final Four -- the drumbeat for Ingram to go No. 1 will be loud.

While scouts swear the tournament doesn't really affect their scouting reports, there is plenty of evidence to say that it does. We always underestimate the power of psychology in the draft.

I know you won't be swayed by any of that, Kevin. Your model doesn't weigh the tournament any differently than the rest of the season. So, from an analytics standpoint, is Simmons the clear No. 1 regardless of how the next few weeks play out? Or is this a real two-man horse race for the No. 1 pick?

Pelton: I don't know about the clear No. 1. As I said when we started, their NBA projections aren't that different because of the regression factor.

Still, the challenge for Ingram from a statistical standpoint is that his strongest current skill -- 3-point shooting -- is also the one that's most likely to regress. We don't often see players have a "hot streak" in terms of rebounds, steals and blocks, but those are the skills where Ingram really has room to improve his projection.

So I'd be surprised if Ingram ends up surpassing Simmons in my projections.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14833745/lsu-ben-simmons-duke-brandon-ingram-2016-draft-no-1-pick-nba

[AtheJ415]

The real question any FO in the #1 spot will have to figure out is if Simmons can ever develop a jump shot. His ceiling is drastically different in either scenario. He has the physical ability to defend despite his low wingspan (quickness and leaping are elite), but the jumper is such a big open question.

[Saberestar]

The real question any FO in the #1 spot will have to figure out is if Simmons can ever develop a jump shot. His ceiling is drastically different in either scenario. He has the physical ability to defend despite his low wingspan (quickness and leaping are elite), but the jumper is such a big open question.

Low wingspan? 7'025"...and 9'05 standing reach. And he is only 19 years old, probably he grows even more.

[AtheJ415]

The real question any FO in the #1 spot will have to figure out is if Simmons can ever develop a jump shot. His ceiling is drastically different in either scenario. He has the physical ability to defend despite his low wingspan (quickness and leaping are elite), but the jumper is such a big open question.

Low wingspan? 7'025"...and 9'05 standing reach. And he is only 19 years old, probably he grows even more.

He has below average wingspan for somebody his size. Most NBA players have wingspans much greater than their heights. For instance, Bogdan Bogdanovich has a 6'11" wingspan at 6'6". Ingram has a 7'3" wingspan and a higher standing reach than Simmons.

For the average NBA player from last year's draft, PF's were 7'1.2" wingspan despite only being 6'7.9" in height.

Simmons doesn't have alligator arms or anything, but it's not elite and I can't remember the last #1 pick who was a big who had a below average wingspan.