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The Draft (Postseason Edition): 1/16/31/59 (NEW POLL)

Moderators: bwgood77, lilfishi22, Qwigglez

Who do you want us to draft?

Ayton
98
55%
Doncic
81
45%
 
Total votes: 179

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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#621 » by Sreister » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:20 pm

JMac1 wrote:
Sreister wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
It’s a four man draft. The overly critical made it a two man draft and an overall meh draft, when once it was a stacked draft?!?

Doncic Ayton Bagley And Young are stars and people can say they aren’t which really doesn’t matter, because their game will speak for itself.

Media and Fans and coaches and gms always miss in basketball because they over analyze with all of the BS stats. Football doesn’t have that crap and they miss way less than basketball.

Booker Mitchell Gobert Kahwi Giannis Jordan Gasol Draymond Brogdan Capela Covington Curry Klay.....that’s just the past few years off of the top of my head, insert missed.

Trae does something no one ever did and group think sweeps it under the rug. Some team is gonna get lucky and we will be complaining about JJJ like we do with Bender and Len. Two “top” 5 bigs.

Bagley Bridges Trae and Ayton performed this year. But but but but......excuses. Oh let me add Jamal Murray and Gary Harris to that list. I remember how bad I wanted Murray and people here thought I was crazy.

“We can’t draft him, our backcourt D will stink. He can’t play with Booker, They are redundant. Murray isn’t athletic enough. Murray isn’t a true PG. Murray is a poor mans whatever.......”

Teams aren’t unlucky, they are dumb!


Wait, what? What sort of evidence do you have to support the claim that NFL never miss? It's such a grossly over simpification to say that NFL doesn't care about analytics and NBA does, so that's why there are differences in hits and misses. I'm not even intelligent enough explain every way that it's an over simplification, but I know that THAT. Let me explain what I do understand.

NFL do miss. A lot. Especially when it comes to an NFL QB. I don't think I really need to explain this very much, and it actually leads me to my next point.

Before I get to this, I want to preface this by saying this is all GENERALLY SPEAKING statements.

Anyway, NBA players are more close with QBs than any other position on the football field. Why? Because both require multifaceted thought processes. Sure there are other positions in the NFL that require it (think MLB, Safetys), but there is a lot more SKILL oriented positions in the NFL (think WR, Linemen, CBs) that are basically 1 on 1 match ups and are much more can I out do that guy?

The same thing goes on in the NBA. NBA players require skill and the ability to read 1 on 1 match ups, help defense.. I could go on and on but it all comes down to having the knowledge and ability to adapt in split second instances. I've had a ton of coaches in my life (2 year college ball player myself, plus obviously many during AAU and whatnot) and the biggest thing any of them ever told me was basketball is a game of reactions. The moment you think, you're gone. It's this that makes basketball players so good, it's not that they're better shooters, it's not that they have better handles, it's that they know what to do, when to do it, and how to counter the other guy from doing what they want to do to stop YOU from doing it.

It all comes down to basketball players, generally, are a much harder player to gauge, same with QBs in the NFL. You need to be able to get in the mind of a ball player and figure out if they have that "IT" factor that allows them to adapt better than the next guy.

Now, there's probably way more psychology out there than that, and I'm sure there are people out there that pretend they know the right thing to look at when it comes to analytics and obviously don't, but to think that more data is hurting people is crazy to think about. Data is king. It's using it that's the hard part.

/End Rant.


Ok

Edit: what the hell? Are people poor readers because of their education or just to not agree with a solid point ?

When the hell did I say the NFL never misses? I said they miss less than the NBA. You can add all excuses why, but they miss way less. End I love how you take one NFL position and juxtaposed it to every NBA player.

Lol! How much does the NBA miss on C vs SG’s or DB’s vs wings, nah....the QB is all you need. Lol..smh. Too much


LOL! Dude, do I need to explain to you how YOU argued your OWN argument? Just in case I do, your whole argument was WHY they miss is because you claim that GMs over think their "bull" stats. YOU made the argument man. I simply don't agree and explained why I believe that GMs miss because of ALMOST ANY OTHER REASON other than that they have too much data, or how you put it "bull data".


And this?

Lol! How much does the NBA miss on C vs SG’s or DB’s vs wings, nah....the QB is all you need. Lol..smh. Too much


EDIT: I think I understand what you're trying to say now, but it doesn't hold water. You can easily make an argument that the NBA misses on one position more than another, sure!
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#622 » by JMac1 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:24 pm

Djedefre wrote:Very similar output, tho Donovan's was in his 2nd and Khyrie's in his 3rd year. Pretty interesting.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/donovan-mitchell-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/khyri-thomas-1.html


That’s solid, but how did they get those stats? Stats alone doesn’t tell the whole story and that’s my issue. Soooooo many variables in basketball....

Can he dribble
Can he shoot
Can he passs
Is he crafty or nimble
Can he guard
How many ways can he score
Does he have IQ
Does he have work ethic
Can he rebound (variables matter a lot here)
And how does his athleticism and size relate to his success as a player.
What is his mental makeup on and off the court

Then give me production stats not VROP and DRGT.....that stuff doesn’t take into account you have trash shooter or are being doubled team 90 percent of the time. Those are the analytics I want. Tell me why he is failing and succeeding not just the outcome. If you don’t have those stats to go with everything else it’s a waste of time for me.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#623 » by bwgood77 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:29 pm

Saberestar wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Doncic playing well so far. On pace for 14/14/4. Would lead the team in rebounding and be up there with Randolph in points.

I have seen the full game and he has played a really bad game.

He made a great highlight, but other than that he played a poor game on both sides of the court.


Tough shooting game for him. Impressive that he led the game in rebounding though being 10-15 years younger than everyone else. Nice that he stays engaged when his shot isn't falling. JJ had that problem early in the year. He'd have those types of shooting night and only get a couple rebounds and often a ton of turnovers. He improved in that respect though.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#624 » by JMac1 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:31 pm

Sreister wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
Sreister wrote:
Wait, what? What sort of evidence do you have to support the claim that NFL never miss? It's such a grossly over simpification to say that NFL doesn't care about analytics and NBA does, so that's why there are differences in hits and misses. I'm not even intelligent enough explain every way that it's an over simplification, but I know that THAT. Let me explain what I do understand.

NFL do miss. A lot. Especially when it comes to an NFL QB. I don't think I really need to explain this very much, and it actually leads me to my next point.

Before I get to this, I want to preface this by saying this is all GENERALLY SPEAKING statements.

Anyway, NBA players are more close with QBs than any other position on the football field. Why? Because both require multifaceted thought processes. Sure there are other positions in the NFL that require it (think MLB, Safetys), but there is a lot more SKILL oriented positions in the NFL (think WR, Linemen, CBs) that are basically 1 on 1 match ups and are much more can I out do that guy?

The same thing goes on in the NBA. NBA players require skill and the ability to read 1 on 1 match ups, help defense.. I could go on and on but it all comes down to having the knowledge and ability to adapt in split second instances. I've had a ton of coaches in my life (2 year college ball player myself, plus obviously many during AAU and whatnot) and the biggest thing any of them ever told me was basketball is a game of reactions. The moment you think, you're gone. It's this that makes basketball players so good, it's not that they're better shooters, it's not that they have better handles, it's that they know what to do, when to do it, and how to counter the other guy from doing what they want to do to stop YOU from doing it.

It all comes down to basketball players, generally, are a much harder player to gauge, same with QBs in the NFL. You need to be able to get in the mind of a ball player and figure out if they have that "IT" factor that allows them to adapt better than the next guy.

Now, there's probably way more psychology out there than that, and I'm sure there are people out there that pretend they know the right thing to look at when it comes to analytics and obviously don't, but to think that more data is hurting people is crazy to think about. Data is king. It's using it that's the hard part.

/End Rant.


Ok

Edit: what the hell? Are people poor readers because of their education or just to not agree with a solid point ?

When the hell did I say the NFL never misses? I said they miss less than the NBA. You can add all excuses why, but they miss way less. End I love how you take one NFL position and juxtaposed it to every NBA player.

Lol! How much does the NBA miss on C vs SG’s or DB’s vs wings, nah....the QB is all you need. Lol..smh. Too much


LOL! Dude, do I need to explain to you how YOU argued your OWN argument? Just in case I do, your whole argument was WHY they miss is because you claim that GMs over think their "bull" stats. YOU made the argument man. I simply don't agree and explained why I believe that GMs miss because of ALMOST ANY OTHER REASON other than that they have too much data, or how you put it "bull data".


And this?

Lol! How much does the NBA miss on C vs SG’s or DB’s vs wings, nah....the QB is all you need. Lol..smh. Too much


EDIT: I think I understand what you're trying to say now, but it doesn't hold water. You can easily make an argument that the NBA misses on one position more than another, sure!


As far as I know....and i have been in a NFL locker room....Atlanta Falcons for the record, they didn’t have all of that stuff on me. All they cared about was how much I weighed, how fast I was, if could catch, and adjust to the ball when it was in the air. First hand experience. Didn’t make the squad, however I know how I got tested.

The NFL have plenty of info but win share isn’t one of them. I’m just saying there are unecesssary stats, and the NFL doesn’t use them, unlike the NBA.


Btw, “doesn’t hold water?” Who are you Joe Pesci?!? Lmao!
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#625 » by JMac1 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:34 pm

Before the wise cracks start....it was 1993. I know, a million years ago, times have changed. Sue me.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#626 » by Fo-Real » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:35 pm

:lol: Two UTES?? :lol:
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#627 » by Fo-Real » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:38 pm

JMac1 wrote:Before the wise cracks start....it was 1993. I know, a million years ago, times have changed. Sue me.


In the Andre "Bad Moon" Rison days!
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#628 » by bwgood77 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:42 pm

Kerrsed wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=19

Bamba is the type that could shoot up boards when he meets with teams. Such unique length and if he's hittijg 3s in workouts some gms will look past his so so play at Texas.



I was just going to post this.

DAMMIT! And i already wrote him off as who i think will be a bust and drop in the draft, but seriously, if he can hit 3's like that in actual game time with defenders and half out of breath from running up and down the court, well than that would be a game changer.

But still, i would have to see him do stuff like this in a game, like at the combine, as just standing there with no pressure and not winded at all doesnt mean all that much, as it is under 2 completely different circumstances.

But dont get me wrong, its still impressive and better than i can shoot from 3.


Yeah, it is impressive, but I'd like to know the entire sample instead of a run he went on. Doing it in practice is one thing. Hield hit 85/100 in his Celtics workout.

I won't be surprised though if we take him at 3 or 4.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#629 » by darealjuice » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:45 pm

JMac1 wrote:
Djedefre wrote:Very similar output, tho Donovan's was in his 2nd and Khyrie's in his 3rd year. Pretty interesting.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/donovan-mitchell-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/khyri-thomas-1.html


That’s solid, but how did they get those stats? Stats alone doesn’t tell the whole story and that’s my issue. Soooooo many variables in basketball....

Can he dribble
Can he shoot
Can he passs
Is he crafty or nimble
Can he guard
How many ways can he score
Does he have IQ
Does he have work ethic
Can he rebound (variables matter a lot here)
And how does his athleticism and size relate to his success as a player.
What is his mental makeup on and off the court

Then give me production stats not VROP and DRGT.....that stuff doesn’t take into account you have trash shooter or are being doubled team 90 percent of the time. Those are the analytics I want. Tell me why he is failing and succeeding not just the outcome. If you don’t have those stats to go with everything else it’s a waste of time for me.


VORP is based on BPM, which is calculated from possession-adjusted box score stats (AST%, TRB%, etc), so usually production stats line up pretty well with advanced stats. The guys you like, Trae and Marvin, are very well liked by those advanced stats too.

I agree about ORTG/DRTG though. DRTG is an estimate of how many points the other team scores while a player is on the court per 100 possessions. It's a team stat, and comparing players DRTG doesn't account for differences in team. I think a better way to see a player's impact on defense is comparing their ORTG/DRTG to the overall team's value. Compare that between players in similar roles and positions and you usually get a good idea of who's making the bigger impact on each end.

I definitely agree there are a ton of factors that need to be considered that aren't well represented in box score and advanced stats though.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#630 » by Sreister » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:46 pm

JMac1 wrote:
Sreister wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
Ok

Edit: what the hell? Are people poor readers because of their education or just to not agree with a solid point ?

When the hell did I say the NFL never misses? I said they miss less than the NBA. You can add all excuses why, but they miss way less. End I love how you take one NFL position and juxtaposed it to every NBA player.

Lol! How much does the NBA miss on C vs SG’s or DB’s vs wings, nah....the QB is all you need. Lol..smh. Too much


LOL! Dude, do I need to explain to you how YOU argued your OWN argument? Just in case I do, your whole argument was WHY they miss is because you claim that GMs over think their "bull" stats. YOU made the argument man. I simply don't agree and explained why I believe that GMs miss because of ALMOST ANY OTHER REASON other than that they have too much data, or how you put it "bull data".


And this?

Lol! How much does the NBA miss on C vs SG’s or DB’s vs wings, nah....the QB is all you need. Lol..smh. Too much


EDIT: I think I understand what you're trying to say now, but it doesn't hold water. You can easily make an argument that the NBA misses on one position more than another, sure!


As far as I know....and i have been in a NFL locker room....Atlanta Falcons for the record, they didn’t have all of that stuff on me. All they cared about was how much I weighed, how fast I was, if could catch, and adjust to the ball when it was in the air. First hand experience. Didn’t make the squad, however I know how I got tested.

The NFL have plenty of info but win share isn’t one of them. I’m just saying there are unecesssary stats, and the NFL doesn’t use them, unlike the NBA.


Btw, “doesn’t hold water?” Who are you Joe Pesci?!? Lmao!


Man..

First off, not sure what the Joe Pesci comment is supposed to do? Hold water originated way before he maybe have said it in something? Not sure if that was an insult to me or..?

Anyway. Maybe you didn't understand my post in the first place, which the more I read your comments the more I seem to believe either you didn't read it or didn't understand. I'll take that on me as I didn't explain it well enough.

You bring up WR, great! That was something I argued! You can certainly relate then. WR is more of a SKILL based position in the NFL. Not a LOT of stuff going on there, and you made the argument for me even! They cared if you could catch, run fast, etc. As a WR, you don't need to have the analytics that a QB might need, for example. The NFL (anecdotally) misses on QBs more often than a WR because of that. The QB has to think, decipher, and overall analyze way more than any one WR needs to.

THAT'S MY ARGUMENT. That NBA players, are more like QBs (analytical) than WRs (skill based). So of course the process of evaluating a more analytical player is much more involved and has a ton of room for error than someone who can, like you said, run fast and catch.

So when you say that these are bullsh*t stats, and that they get in the way of seeing who can do THIS or THAT, I simply don't agree and argue that it's the nature of the beast to miss on someone who requires more analytics to play their respective position or sport than someone who you can tell can run an XX 40 or can catch any ball thrown his way.

I hope that was a better explanation for you! :)
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#631 » by JMac1 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:47 pm

Fo-Real wrote:
JMac1 wrote:Before the wise cracks start....it was 1993. I know, a million years ago, times have changed. Sue me.


In the Andre "Bad Moon" Rison days!


Yup! Mike Pritchard Tony Jones Michel Haynes Floy Dixon.....I didn’t have a chance.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#632 » by bwgood77 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:51 pm

JMac1 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
And Kamisky....what does that have to do over analyzing? People didn’t want players because of over analyzing is my point


You don't think our FO should analyze the draft picks? Plenty of big time producers in college haven't panned out, whether it be a Bagley type of production guy like Beasley, or a scorer like Jimmer.



Did you miss the word OVER analyze? I hope not because it’s in that sentence as big as day. Can’t believe you would even simplify my point like that...shame.

Critique someone on something tangible is cool, but throwing in all the dependent variables and acting as if they are independent is silly. I know you are a stat geek, but I’m not. Certain stats make since but most are garbage IMO, especially the pre draft rating based off win shares or some crap like that is laughable. Again, I know it provides non athletes some “credibility” however, ain’t nothing like simple stats and the eye test IMO.

Again, seems like there are more misses than hits these days since the invention of Billy Ball.


Well, I am not sure why you took it there. I responded to "I wanted Jamal Murray" with "I recall you wanted Hield" and you asked me what it had to do with over analyzing.

So I mention analyzing. The more the better. So if you want to call it "over" analyzing be my guest. If you just want to say "RAH RAH Bagley can score around the rim and grab boards in college so he is a star and a Duke fan on the forums said he might be a good perimeter defender" that's your prerogative, but I'd rather some deeper analysis of these guys be done. Also, I saw you mention he had a good all around game. Not sure what you're watching there but that's far from the case and it will likely be further exposed in the NBA without zone defense and the fact that he should play C but can't protect the rim or defend.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#633 » by Kerrsed » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:55 pm

JMac1 wrote:Before the wise cracks start....it was 1993. I know, a million years ago, times have changed. Sue me.


Great going, now everytime i read your posts i hear it in Danny Glovers voice for some reason. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#634 » by JMac1 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:05 pm

Sreister wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
Sreister wrote:
LOL! Dude, do I need to explain to you how YOU argued your OWN argument? Just in case I do, your whole argument was WHY they miss is because you claim that GMs over think their "bull" stats. YOU made the argument man. I simply don't agree and explained why I believe that GMs miss because of ALMOST ANY OTHER REASON other than that they have too much data, or how you put it "bull data".


And this?



EDIT: I think I understand what you're trying to say now, but it doesn't hold water. You can easily make an argument that the NBA misses on one position more than another, sure!


As far as I know....and i have been in a NFL locker room....Atlanta Falcons for the record, they didn’t have all of that stuff on me. All they cared about was how much I weighed, how fast I was, if could catch, and adjust to the ball when it was in the air. First hand experience. Didn’t make the squad, however I know how I got tested.

The NFL have plenty of info but win share isn’t one of them. I’m just saying there are unecesssary stats, and the NFL doesn’t use them, unlike the NBA.


Btw, “doesn’t hold water?” Who are you Joe Pesci?!? Lmao!


Man..

First off, not sure what the Joe Pesci comment is supposed to do? Hold water originated way before he maybe have said it in something? Not sure if that was an insult to me or..?

Anyway. Maybe you didn't understand my post in the first place, which the more I read your comments the more I seem to believe either you didn't read it or didn't understand. I'll take that on me as I didn't explain it well enough.

You bring up WR, great! That was something I argued! You can certainly relate then. WR is more of a SKILL based position in the NFL. Not a LOT of stuff going on there, and you made the argument for me even! They cared if you could catch, run fast, etc. As a WR, you don't need to have the analytics that a QB might need, for example. The NFL (anecdotally) misses on QBs more often than a WR because of that. The QB has to think, decipher, and overall analyze way more than any one WR needs to.

THAT'S MY ARGUMENT. That NBA players, are more like QBs (analytical) than WRs (skill based). So of course the process of evaluating a more analytical player is much more involved and has a ton of room for error than someone who can, like you said, run fast and catch.

So when you say that these are bullsh*t stats, and that they get in the way of seeing who can do THIS or THAT, I simply don't agree and argue that it's the nature of the beast to miss on someone who requires more analytics to play their respective position or sport than someone who you can tell can run an XX 40 or can catch any ball thrown his way.

I hope that was a better explanation for you! :)


I will concede that point to you. Different analytics are required for different positions in football and are more needed in basketball, one reason being is they play both offense and defense. Also, QB’s require more info that WR, but like Saber state above, sometimes there are some dependent variable analytics that are unnecessary.

The Joe Pesci reference wasnt a wise crack against you. Just reminded me of the movie and made me laugh when I read it.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#635 » by WeekapaugGroove » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:15 pm

Not to get totally down a rabbit hole on analytics and how sports scout but overall the more team oriented a sport less you can use analytics.

Baseball is by far the best sport to judge by analytics because it's a very individual sport.

Football is the hardest because there are 11 men on the field and outside the coaching room it's hard to say exactly what a guy is supposed to do on any given play. I will say they base their draft evaluations on physical measurables more than any other sport. Minor differences in things like the 40 or 3 cone can really impact where a guy gets picked regardless of his college production. Hell I'm a Packer fan and they simply cross any CB off their draft board who is under 5 10.

Basketball falls in the middle. It's a team sport but their is more of an individual aspect than football and less guys on the court so a little easier to judge. Analytics have come a long ways in the past decade but most are still in the early phase and need to be refined to give a real true picture. In general I think offensive analytics are more accurate than defensive ones at this point.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#636 » by Djedefre » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:20 pm

JMac1 wrote:
Djedefre wrote:Very similar output, tho Donovan's was in his 2nd and Khyrie's in his 3rd year. Pretty interesting.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/donovan-mitchell-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/khyri-thomas-1.html


That’s solid, but how did they get those stats? Stats alone doesn’t tell the whole story and that’s my issue. Soooooo many variables in basketball....

Can he dribble
Can he shoot
Can he passs
Is he crafty or nimble
Can he guard
How many ways can he score
Does he have IQ
Does he have work ethic
Can he rebound (variables matter a lot here)
And how does his athleticism and size relate to his success as a player.
What is his mental makeup on and off the court

Then give me production stats not VROP and DRGT.....that stuff doesn’t take into account you have trash shooter or are being doubled team 90 percent of the time. Those are the analytics I want. Tell me why he is failing and succeeding not just the outcome. If you don’t have those stats to go with everything else it’s a waste of time for me.


I could agree here, in general, but since you brought him up, just tell me this: did you watch Mitchell @ Louisville? I'm asking 'cause i did, and he looked like a random athletic 2nd year combo guard. His play at the end of regular season and in the tourney was pretty bad actually. He was non existent against Wake Forest, atrocious against Duke and Jax State... You could only see he has a tight handle and isn't prone to turning the ball over. No exquisite court vision nor lights out shooting. vast majority of his offense came from storming to the rim thanks to a combination of quickness and bulkiness. But so did Marcus Smart, and he was even more impressive in that regard. And? What become of him? Is he some kind of a game changer or just one of the worst shooters in the league with no actual playmaking skills? No, no, my friend, Donovan Mitchell is an exception not a rule by any means. No one saw him having this kind of an impact in the NBA even in 3/4 years, let alone in his rookie season. It was just impossible to predict. He is a total surprise (even to himself to a certain extent, i'm sure) and everyone saying the opposite is just lying and pretending.

Khyri has more than a few similarities with Mitchell - good 1on1 D, lateral quickness, smooth stroke, elite finishing around the rim, great rebounding for position, very low TO rate, reliable outside shot, great work ethic. I brought him up to illustrate how certain production and even big visual similarities don't have to mean anything. They COULD BE an indicator, but there's no guarantee. As you said, so many variables.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#637 » by MrMiyagi » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:31 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:Not to get totally down a rabbit hole on analytics and how sports scout but overall the more team oriented a sport less you can use analytics.

Baseball is by far the best sport to judge by analytics because it's a very individual sport.

Football is the hardest because there are 11 men on the field and outside the coaching room it's hard to say exactly what a guy is supposed to do on any given play. I will say they base their draft evaluations on physical measurables more than any other sport. Minor differences in things like the 40 or 3 cone can really impact where a guy gets picked regardless of his college production. Hell I'm a Packer fan and they simply cross any CB off their draft board who is under 5 10.

Basketball falls in the middle. It's a team sport but their is more of an individual aspect than football and less guys on the court so a little easier to judge. Analytics have come a long ways in the past decade but most are still in the early phase and need to be refined to give a real true picture. In general I think offensive analytics are more accurate than defensive ones at this point.

This is the thing analytics junkies forget. Like, I'm all for analytics, they are a useful tool, but you can't just base your entire decision making on them. There will always be weird outliers in the analytics, which is why watching players play full games (and several of them) is necessary to evaluate them.

People like to bash Ayton's lack of defense, but look at his teammates. No one in the Wildcats rotation had a defensive rating below 100. Compare that to the 2013-14 Wildcats who had Aaron Gordon, Rondae, TJ, Brandon Ashley and even Nick Johnson and Tarczewski who were all solid defenders (most had a DRtg in the high 80s to low 90s) and played well in a team scheme. People who watch Ayton tape only watch his performance and don't see the defense breaking down all around him, so he's caught in no man's land too frequently. Now, he isn't Kevin Garnett or Anthony Davis, but he's still a pretty damn good defender.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#638 » by WeekapaugGroove » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:48 pm

Not sure if it was discussed earlier but it sure looks like the 1 and done will be gone for the 2020 draft. That could make for a very intresting class that year.
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#639 » by BobbieL » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:11 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:Not to get totally down a rabbit hole on analytics and how sports scout but overall the more team oriented a sport less you can use analytics.

Baseball is by far the best sport to judge by analytics because it's a very individual sport.

Football is the hardest because there are 11 men on the field and outside the coaching room it's hard to say exactly what a guy is supposed to do on any given play. I will say they base their draft evaluations on physical measurables more than any other sport. Minor differences in things like the 40 or 3 cone can really impact where a guy gets picked regardless of his college production. Hell I'm a Packer fan and they simply cross any CB off their draft board who is under 5 10.

Basketball falls in the middle. It's a team sport but their is more of an individual aspect than football and less guys on the court so a little easier to judge. Analytics have come a long ways in the past decade but most are still in the early phase and need to be refined to give a real true picture. In general I think offensive analytics are more accurate than defensive ones at this point.

This is the thing analytics junkies forget. Like, I'm all for analytics, they are a useful tool, but you can't just base your entire decision making on them. There will always be weird outliers in the analytics, which is why watching players play full games (and several of them) is necessary to evaluate them.

People like to bash Ayton's lack of defense, but look at his teammates. No one in the Wildcats rotation had a defensive rating below 100. Compare that to the 2013-14 Wildcats who had Aaron Gordon, Rondae, TJ, Brandon Ashley and even Nick Johnson and Tarczewski who were all solid defenders (most had a DRtg in the high 80s to low 90s) and played well in a team scheme. People who watch Ayton tape only watch his performance and don't see the defense breaking down all around him, so he's caught in no man's land too frequently. Now, he isn't Kevin Garnett or Anthony Davis, but he's still a pretty damn good defender.


If somebody takes Ayton off their board because of last season - that's dumb. Miller is not the best head coach.

Ayton is 18 years old. He has time to learn and get better
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Re: The Draft (Postseason Edition): Top 4/16/31/59 (New Poll) 

Post#640 » by Mjee » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:16 pm

Bamba over JJJ everyday of the week for me

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