2014 Draft Thread

[carey]

Wait, Jabari Parker is Mormon and he didn't go to BYU? That has to be the biggest BYU snub ever.

[SaintEschaton]

Looks like Jabari could go on a mission for years and still be drafted ahead of Wiggins. Looks like the hype machine finally died down. Also to anyone advocating a tank right now, even if we somehow pulled it off we would barely pick in top 10, and would probably end up with Gordon instead of one of the elite prospects.

[MilotheSlayer]

I wanna see us get PJ Hairston from UNC, he can light up that score board when he's on and was above average on D last year. Although he has the maturity issues I think sitting out this year will make him grow up a bit.

[bwgood77]

I thought this was interesting, especially since I've often felt that a steal to turnover ratio makes more sense than an assist to to ratio (I don't think many pro players have more steals than turnovers, especially point guards...perhaps MCW at the beginning of the season...but it is SUPER RARE to have more steals than turnovers for a pg)

It's time for Tyler Ennis to get his own section devoted to him in the most powerful power rankings in college basketball. For the unaware, Ennis is a Canadian freshman point guard for the Orange who has been overshadowed by other Canadians (Andrew Wiggins, Melvin Ejim, Nik Stauskas), other freshmen (Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon), and other Syracuse players (C.J. Fair, Jerami Grant, Trevor Cooney). But Ennis has been excellent through the first 15 games of his college career. He's averaging 11.7 points, 5.6 assists, and 3.2 rebounds, which aren't world-beater numbers but are very much on par with the production of other point guards on top teams. What makes Ennis special, though, is that he's averaging 2.6 steals and just 1.2 turnovers per game. In case you aren't amazed by that, I should mention that it takes a great point guard to average as many steals as turnovers, yet Ennis steals the ball more than twice as much as he turns it over. Heralded point guards like Smart, T.J. McConnell, Russ Smith, Appling, Jahii Carson, and Semaj Christon all have more turnovers than steals on the year, but the freshman point guard of the no. 2–ranked team in America has twice as many steals as turnovers? That's insane.

Oh, and this if from Titus' Grantland's college basketball rankings, which, if you follow college basketball closely, should be a must read, and they can be really funny...but you almost have to be really knowledgeable about many teams for it all to be funny. If you've heard Dick Vitale announcing a lot, his Dick Degrees of Separation thing every week is particularly fun to read.. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/102 ... ry-msu-osu

[Ring_Wanted]

I thought this was interesting, especially since I've often felt that a steal to turnover ratio makes more sense than an assist to to ratio

I found myself yesterday thinking exactly the same.

[INFORMER-93]

I thought this was interesting, especially since I've often felt that a steal to turnover ratio makes more sense than an assist to to ratio

I found myself yesterday thinking exactly the same.

I really disagree. Assist to turnover ratio makes all the sense in the world, especially for point guards. It's basically telling you, when the ball is in a player's hands, and taking shooting the ball out of the equation, how often is their a direct positive result versus a direct negative result. More specifically, in the case of point guards, you learn how well that player performs the traditional point guard duties without significant error.

Steals have value, but they just aren't that prevalent, especially on an individual player basis. And a steal doesn't guarantee a significant positive result for your team. Sure, you take away a possession from the opponent, but then what will do with your possession? And just because you rack up steals does not make you a good defensive player or team. It's a stat similar to blocks; a player can block a shot, but the ball could bounce right to another player on offense and that player can score. Or a player may block a shot out of bounds, and the offensive team still scores on that possession. So what was the value of the blocked shot in either one of those instances?

[Ring_Wanted]

I see it like this: A steal means an extra possession for your team. A TO means an extra one for the opposite team. Nothing more nothing less. I find it a more ideal relation than assists, especially the way dimes are computed in NBA basketball.

Linking it to blocks doesn't work for me. A block doesn't necessarily mean you gain one possession, unlike steals by definition. Whatever happens with said possession remains to be seen, but at the very least you have the ball, and there is a number of positive things that can happen without an assist, like one on one scoring or getting fouled, just like passing is not the only way you can commit a turnover.

If I want to learn how good, or willing, of a distributor a player is, strictly from stats, I prefer to look at how many shot attempts per assist he logs.

Where I agree is that steals, like blocks, don't mean that the guy is a sound defender, but that's another story.

[INFORMER-93]

Interesting.

[bwgood77]

I agree with Ring Wanted. I didn't mean to say that assist to turnover ratio isn't meaningful. It is. But I think steal to turnover ratio is directly related in that you can see how many more possessions a player (any player) adds a possession to your team than gives one away.

[MrMiyagi]

So wouldn't rebounds mean the same thing as steals and turnovers?

[TOO]

Steals take a possession away, giving you a free possession, while rebounds just means they happened to miss this time.

[MrMiyagi]

Steals take a possession away, giving you a free possession, while rebounds just means they happened to miss this time.

Defensive rebound means they had a negative resulting possession, which is essentially what a turnover is. Getting an offensive rebound is getting another attempt at a basket which is the same as an extra possession, which is what steals give you.

[Ring_Wanted]

The difference would be that preventing the other team from getting the offensive rebound means keeping them from typicaly having another inmediate chance at getting a basket, whereas when an steal happens, many times you are aborting a play way before it enters that 'final' stage. In other words, it's (way) more important getting a defensive rebound than a steal.

[TOO]

Steals take a possession away, giving you a free possession, while rebounds just means they happened to miss this time.

Defensive rebound means they had a negative resulting possession, which is essentially what a turnover is. Getting an offensive rebound is getting another attempt at a basket which is the same as an extra possession, which is what steals give you.

To me, I see gaining a possession without allowing the other team to get up a shot as a bonus possession. If they miss, I cant call that a negative possession because everyone misses, its part of the game. An offensive rebound can be debated, I mean its really just continuing your current possession.

[MrMiyagi]

Steals take a possession away, giving you a free possession, while rebounds just means they happened to miss this time.

Defensive rebound means they had a negative resulting possession, which is essentially what a turnover is. Getting an offensive rebound is getting another attempt at a basket which is the same as an extra possession, which is what steals give you.

To me, I see gaining a possession without allowing the other team to get up a shot as a bonus possession. If they miss, I cant call that a negative possession because everyone misses, its part of the game. An offensive rebound can be debated, I mean its really just continuing your current possession.

But you want your possessions to end in a shot, ideally a made shot. So if you get another shot attempt, it should count as another possession.

[Cutter]

I see it like this: A steal means an extra possession for your team. A TO means an extra one for the opposite team. Nothing more nothing less. I find it a more ideal relation than assists, especially the way dimes are computed in NBA basketball.

Linking it to blocks doesn't work for me. A block doesn't necessarily mean you gain one possession, unlike steals by definition. Whatever happens with said possession remains to be seen, but at the very least you have the ball, and there is a number of positive things that can happen without an assist, like one on one scoring or getting fouled, just like passing is not the only way you can commit a turnover.

If I want to learn how good, or willing, of a distributor a player is, strictly from stats, I prefer to look at how many shot attempts per assist he logs.

Where I agree is that steals, like blocks, don't mean that the guy is a sound defender, but that's another story.

Nice post.

[Cutter]

Defensive rebound means they had a negative resulting possession, which is essentially what a turnover is. Getting an offensive rebound is getting another attempt at a basket which is the same as an extra possession, which is what steals give you.

To me, I see gaining a possession without allowing the other team to get up a shot as a bonus possession. If they miss, I cant call that a negative possession because everyone misses, its part of the game. An offensive rebound can be debated, I mean its really just continuing your current possession.

But you want your possessions to end in a shot, ideally a made shot. So if you get another shot attempt, it should count as another possession.

Agreed. It is considered another possession as the 24 second clock resets.

[bwgood77]

So wouldn't rebounds mean the same thing as steals and turnovers?

Somewhat, but rebounds are probably 65/35 that the defending team gets it anyway, whereas a turnover or steal is a 100% chance.

I've also felt that perhaps a block-pass to teammate should possibly also be considered a steal, whereas a block out of bounds or just a block in general isn't nearly as valuable. Dwight Howard, for example, likes to look cool batting it into the stands which really doesn't improve the team's position at all. He just prevented a shot, just as any defender could do by just playing good defense. Anthony Davis and others try to block it to teammates which is MUCH more valuable, and are basically a block AND steal.

[sunsg0rilla]

So wouldn't rebounds mean the same thing as steals and turnovers?

Somewhat, but rebounds are probably 65/35 that the defending team gets it anyway, whereas a turnover or steal is a 100% chance.

I've also felt that perhaps a block-pass to teammate should possibly also be considered a steal, whereas a block out of bounds or just a block in general isn't nearly as valuable. Dwight Howard, for example, likes to look cool batting it into the stands which really doesn't improve the team's position at all. He just prevented a shot, just as any defender could do by just playing good defense. Anthony Davis and others try to block it to teammates which is MUCH more valuable, and are basically a block AND steal.

This is a good explanation.

[bwgood77]

One of the handful of teams that could give Bledsoe a free agent offer is Orlando, and based on this, they may just be planning on sticking with Olapido as their pg of the future, which could be a good thing for us

Orlando Magic
Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Andrew Wiggins

The Magic loved Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart last season and could still take him No. 1 this year. However, I'm hearing lately that the Magic believe Victor Oladipo can make the transition to the point and want to swing for the fences with a player with a huge upside like Wiggins. Wiggins is less NBA-ready than several of the other players in consideration for the No. 1 pick, but his upside is so great, the Magic would have a hard time passing on him given their developmental curve.

Of course there is still the chance if they don't get a high enough pick to take Wiggins (or Parker or Embiid) that they take Smart or Exum anyway too.

It seems like there may not be a huge market for Bledsoe when you consider who will have cap space AND need a pg. You have the Lakers, but their cap space will likely be derived from letting Gasol walk, so if they don't use the space on a big, their frontcourt is likely going to look horrific.