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AtheJ415 wrote:I'll also say this, I don't think we should force ourselves into the PG spot at 16 just because it is the biggest need. Take the BPA. There will be tons of opportunity to address PG in the next 2 offseasons, at 31 in this draft, or via trade.
If Zhaire Smith for instance falls to 16, I think it would be really faulty to pass on him just because he isn't a PG.
JMac1 wrote:bwgood77 wrote:JMac1 wrote:
And an 80 percent free throw shooter. I always liked him, however, being a Bias Bruin, along with everyone kind of not liking him, I let it go. I looked at just about everyone to replace him at 16 and I struggled. I came up with mostly SGs that were limited in other facets of their game.
Holiday is a true PG, as been mentioned, he turned into a scorer because he had to. But he still avg 20 and 6 and played pretty good D. Heck, you talked me out of him by reminding me he couldn't jump (I know I pointed it out first). I think his turnovers were because he isn't a scoring PG and he was playing out of his element.
I think he'd be a good fit if he took open shots, initiated the offense on non-fast breaks and half-court sets; and played good D. He can shoot, so he would be good playing off of Booker and vice versa. He is also seasoned. We just need a solid 3D PG, he doesn't have to be 6'5 to be that.
I'm partial to short tough G's anyway.... Joe Dumars, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, AI, Nate Archibald, John Stockton, and Isaiah Thomas Mahmoud Abdul Rauf...... 6'8 wing span
Like I said earlier, I haven't seen him enough to have a strong opinion on him other than a bad showing against AZ going 5-20, and that he is a shorter PG. There are a lot of guys I had studied more who are bigger and longer and mentioned more earlier, but I haven't watched them all much either.
The fact that a number of teams are talking about trading up and stuff to get him gives me a better feeling about him though. I wonder if we would trade up a few spots and take him.....because at this point he may not even be there. It will be interesting if we trade like 16 and 31 to move up to like 13 or something to take him. I wonder if many or most teams have him above Shai.
I wouldn't trade up to get him, that means someone has to fall. What's the deal with Shai? I haven't heard too much from him.
The clips seem like a logical landing spot for shai but I wouldn't think they would make him a promise because those picks are in play for a trade up or for a vet like Leonard.bwgood77 wrote:JMac1 wrote:bwgood77 wrote:
Like I said earlier, I haven't seen him enough to have a strong opinion on him other than a bad showing against AZ going 5-20, and that he is a shorter PG. There are a lot of guys I had studied more who are bigger and longer and mentioned more earlier, but I haven't watched them all much either.
The fact that a number of teams are talking about trading up and stuff to get him gives me a better feeling about him though. I wonder if we would trade up a few spots and take him.....because at this point he may not even be there. It will be interesting if we trade like 16 and 31 to move up to like 13 or something to take him. I wonder if many or most teams have him above Shai.
I wouldn't trade up to get him, that means someone has to fall. What's the deal with Shai? I haven't heard too much from him.
On the Woj Pod I just listened to they said he hadn't worked out for barely anyone. Not sure what that means. They may have said he worked out for the Clips.
JMac1 wrote:AtheJ415 wrote:I'll also say this, I don't think we should force ourselves into the PG spot at 16 just because it is the biggest need. Take the BPA. There will be tons of opportunity to address PG in the next 2 offseasons, at 31 in this draft, or via trade.
If Zhaire Smith for instance falls to 16, I think it would be really faulty to pass on him just because he isn't a PG.
What's his skill besides being an athlete? I love his athleticism,but that's the only thing I saw on film.
NBA Draft
Ayton: 'I knew that basketball would get me through' NBA draft prospect DeAndre Ayton reflects on his beginnings in basketball and how dealing with the scrutiny at Arizona will make him a better pro.
bwgood77 wrote:jredsaz wrote:WeekapaugGroove wrote:Ray ray threw it out there last night. It doesn't make much sense though considering Bradley is 100% a sg so why spend big to backup your best player.
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He shares and agent with Booker, that's a big deal. Agents are the gate keepers to these guys. They direct them to franchises.
Disagree that he doesn't fit either. Longterm I think he is a bench guy who can play next to Booker and Jackson as their facilitating skills continue to develop. He is a good one on one defender but has not had good advanced stats on thay end - ever. He can shoot. He has a history of playing on winning teams.
Not my favorite guy on the market but it's completely lined up to happen. If you can make some other deals as well to add another quality role player I'm okay with it. He can be a good supporting veteran that can help the team start winning some games.
Has just become so inefficient. Under 50% TS% ever since leaving Boston. Below average prior to that. I won't be surprised if we sign him but I do feel we could use our cap space more wisely.
Former Kentucky star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could be one of the top point guards selected in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Scouts and executives are enamored with his size and length. He stands at 6-foot-6 and his wingspan is over 6-foot-11 — which makes him a potential defensive specialist. He measured well at the combine, but did not do any physical testing.
Some teams have not been able to bring him in for a workout, according to Adrian Wojnarowski (via ESPN):
“I do think [he] goes in this lottery. Teams haven’t seen him in [a] workout setting for the most part. I’m not sure he’s worked out for anybody. But that competition among those guards is going to be fascinating.”
The Orlando Magic (No. 6), Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 8), New York Knicks (No. 9), Charlotte Hornets (No. 11), Los Angeles Clippers (No. 12 and No. 13) and Phoenix Suns (No. 16) are the teams with the most need for a point guard in the upcoming draft. He may have had a secret or private workout with a team; if so, everyone involved has done a good job keeping it under wraps.
It’s possible that he’s not working out for teams because his camp is trying to steer him to a certain team. If they want him in a certain market like, say, Los Angeles (which has the No. 12 and No. 13 picks), turning down workout requests from franchises in that same range would make sense. It’s also possible that Gilgeous-Alexander has a promise from a team he’d like to join, making workouts unnecessary.
He is currently ranked as the No. 14 overall prospect in our aggregate big board. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 14.4 points, 5.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game last season.
As a freshman, he ranked Top 5 in the SEC in both Offensive Win Shares and Defensive Win Shares. He also ranked No. 3 in his conference in assists per game and steals per game. Gilgeous-Alexander is an intriguing prospect, so interested teams understandably want to bring him in for a workout prior to selecting him. However, his camp seems to have a different plan at this point.
Villalobos wrote:http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23796252/2018-nba-draft-projections-kevin-pelton-luka-doncic-marvin-bagley-deandre-ayton
anyone got ESPN insider? what's it say about Ayton and the other consensus top 5 guys?
When I first posted statistical projections for the 2018 NBA draft back in March, I included only those for college prospects, which left a Luka Doncic-sized hole at the top of the rankings.
Now that we're including everyone, Doncic is naturally No. 1, and his 5.8 projected wins above replacement player (WARP) -- what we'd expect him to average over his first five seasons, discounting more distant ones to reward immediate returns -- are in fact the most for any of the 800-plus players I've projected dating back to 2003. Doncic tops Anthony Davis (5.5) for that honor, though it's worth noting that I don't have a projection for LeBron James out of St. Vincent-St. Mary High School or Dwight Howard the following year.
Doncic's ascension to the top isn't the only change since March. Like our ESPN Analytics projections, I've incorporated performance in the Nike EYBL AAU league for players who saw action there in either 2015 or 2016 thanks to Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Information. This has a significant impact for freshmen who often played nearly as many minutes in the EYBL as in the NCAA -- or many more, in the case of Michael Porter Jr., who missed most of his lone season at Missouri due to injury.
Additionally, as explained in a full piece looking at the value of centers in the modern NBA, I've made an adjustment to the projections based on player positions that causes big men to fall in the rankings and wings, in particular, to climb. As a result, my projections now differ more from the consensus at the top of the draft, which will likely be dominated by big men.
You can read more on the projections and see how they've worked in the past here, but now let's get to the rankings based on consensus projections that incorporate both statistical performance and where the player rates in the current top 100 from Insider Jonathan Givony.
1. Luka Doncic
Real Madrid
PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.8 WARP
Doncic has played nearly 4,000 minutes and counting between the Spanish ACB and the Euroleague -- more than three times as many as Anthony Davis played at Kentucky, for example. As a result, while there's still reason to question how his skills will translate to the NBA, we can be more confident in his projection accurately capturing those skills.
2. Deandre Ayton
Arizona
C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 3.2 WARP
Before the positional adjustment, Ayton ranked fourth in my stats-only projections, so he takes a major hit.
Still, he looks like a strong prospect. Ayton's projections rank among the top 25 percent of NBA-bound centers in seven categories (usage, 2-point percentage, shooting, rebound percentage, assist percentage, turnover percentage and foul percentage) -- as many as Doncic. The difference is that Ayton's statistical weaknesses (particularly steal percentage, though his block percentage is on the low side for a center) take a bigger hit out of his projection.
3. Trae Young
Oklahoma
PG
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
Young is the biggest beneficiary of the positional adjustment, jumping several of the big men who previously rated ahead of him to finish with the best statistical projection among college prospects. Young's projected usage rate ranks fifth among players in the top 100 of ESPN's draft rankings, and his projected assist rate ranks second behind Doncic.
4. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Michigan State
F/C
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Jackson was the No. 1 college prospect in March, but both of the changes to the projections hurt him. He wasn't nearly as effective in the 2016 EYBL as during his lone season at Michigan State. Nonetheless, Jackson benefits from being the youngest prospect in the top 100.
5. Michael Porter Jr.
Missouri
SF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
In March, Porter wasn't included in my projections because he'd played just two minutes before undergoing back surgery. He returned to play 51 in two tournament games, but his projection is still based primarily on the EYBL. Porter rated as the league's third-most valuable player by WARP in 2016 and performed decently as a rising junior the year before. Assuming Porter's medicals check out -- no sure thing -- he should still be considered the top prospect he was entering Missouri.
6. Mikal Bridges
Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.5 WARP
A favorite of statistical projections dating back to when he was coming off the bench as a redshirt freshman, Bridges developed to become the best player on last year's national champions. His game should translate well to a 3-and-D role in the NBA. While Bridges could stand to improve on the defensive glass, his steal rate is solid and he has the ability to defend multiple positions.
7. Mohamed Bamba
Texas
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 2.5 WARP
One concern about Bamba: his projected assist rate (1.3 per 100 team plays) ranks among the bottom 25 in my projection database. It's possible to become an effective offensive player despite that issue -- fellow Longhorn LaMarcus Aldridge had a weaker assist projection, as did Hassan Whiteside, though Greg Oden and Emeka Okafor were similar -- but it limits Bamba's offensive value.
AtheJ415 wrote:I'll also say this, I don't think we should force ourselves into the PG spot at 16 just because it is the biggest need. Take the BPA. There will be tons of opportunity to address PG in the next 2 offseasons, at 31 in this draft, or via trade.
If Zhaire Smith for instance falls to 16, I think it would be really faulty to pass on him just because he isn't a PG.
Djedefre wrote:Hutchison is a great player. Much better than majority of guys projected to go ahead of him.
This is a great breakdown of smith! He's not the safest prospect but if he develops he could be a two way problem and a very unique player.AtheJ415 wrote:JMac1 wrote:AtheJ415 wrote:I'll also say this, I don't think we should force ourselves into the PG spot at 16 just because it is the biggest need. Take the BPA. There will be tons of opportunity to address PG in the next 2 offseasons, at 31 in this draft, or via trade.
If Zhaire Smith for instance falls to 16, I think it would be really faulty to pass on him just because he isn't a PG.
What's his skill besides being an athlete? I love his athleticism,but that's the only thing I saw on film.
He has skill, it's just that he is a bit weird in that he plays like a big man. He gets a ton of rebounds, blocks, and steals, and crashes the glass. A huge amount of putbacks for a non-big. He is good at setting picks and operates really well from the FT line area and in. Cuts well off the ball. He needs to work on his jumper but it is far from broken. He hit 3s at a good clip on low volume and you can tell he is tweaking it in draft prep.
I think he may end up the best perimeter defender in this draft and is arguably a top 3 athlete of everyone. His upside lies with his jumper and developing offensively off the dribble, which is going to take some work, but that is the same skill set a lot of defensive-oriented athletes coming out had (like Jimmy Butler, for instance). Smith and Jackson guarding on the perimeter would be a big boost to our defense as a team.
Also, I think from a value perspective he ought to go top 12 so if he does fall to 16, I will be upset if we pass on him unless for maybe SGA if he falls.
WeekapaugGroove wrote:This is a great breakdown of smith! He's not the safest prospect but if he develops he could be a two way problem and a very unique player.AtheJ415 wrote:JMac1 wrote:
What's his skill besides being an athlete? I love his athleticism,but that's the only thing I saw on film.
He has skill, it's just that he is a bit weird in that he plays like a big man. He gets a ton of rebounds, blocks, and steals, and crashes the glass. A huge amount of putbacks for a non-big. He is good at setting picks and operates really well from the FT line area and in. Cuts well off the ball. He needs to work on his jumper but it is far from broken. He hit 3s at a good clip on low volume and you can tell he is tweaking it in draft prep.
I think he may end up the best perimeter defender in this draft and is arguably a top 3 athlete of everyone. His upside lies with his jumper and developing offensively off the dribble, which is going to take some work, but that is the same skill set a lot of defensive-oriented athletes coming out had (like Jimmy Butler, for instance). Smith and Jackson guarding on the perimeter would be a big boost to our defense as a team.
Also, I think from a value perspective he ought to go top 12 so if he does fall to 16, I will be upset if we pass on him unless for maybe SGA if he falls.
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Archx wrote:This is getting super awkward now. It is slowly becoming a paradox. After basically all statistic analyses Doncic is BPA in this draft. Ryan said many times they just want to draft BPA. Yet 99% of mock drafts have Ayton on top....
And i don't care about potential here. Because a 19yo with super high BBIQ and a proven championship mentality will not reach lower ceiling than another 19yo who's motor is being questioned. Just doesn't make any sense.
At this point i am not favoring anyone because i know pro's and con's if any of them gets drafted, it is just funny to read/listen/watch interviews, analyses and everything that comes along with it.
Ugh, few more days
Archx wrote:This is getting super awkward now. It is slowly becoming a paradox. After basically all statistic analyses Doncic is BPA in this draft. Ryan said many times they just want to draft BPA. Yet 99% of mock drafts have Ayton on top....
And i don't care about potential here. Because a 19yo with super high BBIQ and a proven championship mentality will not reach lower ceiling than another 19yo who's motor is being questioned. Just doesn't make any sense.
At this point i am not favoring anyone because i know pro's and con's if any of them gets drafted, it is just funny to read/listen/watch interviews, analyses and everything that comes along with it.
Ugh, few more days
JMac1 wrote:Archx wrote:This is getting super awkward now. It is slowly becoming a paradox. After basically all statistic analyses Doncic is BPA in this draft. Ryan said many times they just want to draft BPA. Yet 99% of mock drafts have Ayton on top....
And i don't care about potential here. Because a 19yo with super high BBIQ and a proven championship mentality will not reach lower ceiling than another 19yo who's motor is being questioned. Just doesn't make any sense.
At this point i am not favoring anyone because i know pro's and con's if any of them gets drafted, it is just funny to read/listen/watch interviews, analyses and everything that comes along with it.
Ugh, few more days
The eye test is tangible and all of the advanced analytics are not. Analytics doesn't tell you if he can beat elite one on one defense and that is what concerns people. The Suns take BOTH into account.
No one needs to see advanced numbers to identify that Ayton is a monster.
