Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 4

[bigfoot]

It has been very slow progress over four and a half seasons. I will say it is nice to see Len is playing better. Looks like Chandler is finally rubbing off on Len. Or could be the fire is lit because Len is playing for a paycheck next year. A lot of his offensive woes can be blamed on the coaches as both Hornacek and Watson tried to get Len to play away from the basket. The decision to simplify the offense for Len has been good. However, for the season his shooting percentage is still poor for a center. He shot abysmally (.475ish) in October and November. He has really stepped up in December and is shooting (.694). This is the number to watch for Len for the rest of the season.

I think its more than just playing for a paycheck. He has simplified his game. No more top of the key mid-range jumpers. He stays close to the hoop. Rebounds very well. Protects the rim.

We should keep him if we can. Of course, it will depend on the draft. If we draft Ayton or Bamba, I don't think he will stay no matter how much money we throw at him.

He has protected the rim for years. He was one of the best rim protectors in the entire league for his age just last season. People have just chosen to ignore that since they already wrote him off as a bust.

Even Ryan McD and 29 other GMs wrote him off. Searching NBA stats for defensive FG% within 6 feet of the rim. Not seeing Len listed as a top rim protector. Would be nice to show me statistics that prove Len is one of the best as you claim.

[bigfoot]

Len is leading the team in WS right now:

http://bkref.com/tiny/g4CoN

The fact that he's playing only 22 mpg makes this even more impressive (WS is a cumulative stat). He's fulfilling his role really well right now.

It has been very slow progress over four and a half seasons. I will say it is nice to see Len is playing better. Looks like Chandler is finally rubbing off on Len. Or could be the fire is lit because Len is playing for a paycheck next year. A lot of his offensive woes can be blamed on the coaches as both Hornacek and Watson tried to get Len to play away from the basket. The decision to simplify the offense for Len has been good. However, for the season his shooting percentage is still poor for a center. He shot abysmally (.475ish) in October and November. He has really stepped up in December and is shooting (.694). This is the number to watch for Len for the rest of the season.

Len has been very efficient the whole season long. His TS% by month: 60% in October, 56% in November and 72% December.

62%, 70%, and 71% for TS% for Chandler over the same time period. Historically Len's career 52% TS has been very low for a C. Chandler's career number is 62.5%. I think a starting C who is limited offensively and their primary abilities lie in rebounding and rim protection (still questionable) needs to have a good TS%. Len is starting to show it now but will it carry through the entire season??

Again most of us had high hopes for Len when he was drafted. He is a role player that really isn't any better than Robin Lopez at the same age

http://bkref.com/tiny/owdFL

[NavLDO]

Tobias Harris didn't average the almighty 12 ppg by age 20. Clearly a complete bust. They should trade him for Zach Randolph or Manu Ginobli.

Straightforward ignorance and inability to look at the fact that Harris was behind two veteran SFs his first two years and was traded away by the Bucks before he broke out. This is the situation with every player you give as a poor counter example. Butler behind quality players and not getting touchs, never going to get shots over Rose, Deng, Noah, and Boozer. Compare that to Chriss and Bender who have both been starters and given lots of opportunity but just don't step up to the plate take it. Open you eyes and use that little bit of logic that you think you possess and spout off about all the time in your posts. Personally most of your arguments are illogical and make very, very little sense.

Oh, I know..Bender has started a ton...a whole ONE game, and averaged 13.3 MPG compared to Butler's 8.5 MPG in his 1st Season...or Harris' 11.4 (over 9 GS more than Bender...which was ZERO)

http://bkref.com/tiny/DUMZ1

By season two, though...watch out...Bender has started ONE game, and is averaging 20.5 MPG vs Butler (26.0 and 20 GS) and Harris (23.6 and 34 GS). Yep somehow Harris and Butler, not getting opportunities like Bender has, really slowed their development...

http://bkref.com/tiny/yWdKu

"But Chriss has started!!!" Yeah, and played 20MPG...ALSO, less than Butler and Harris in their 2nd season...and Ingram and Gordon. Gordon was scoring a whopping 9.2 PPG.

Then let's look at per36, and low and behold, Bender and Chriss leading the way in Blks...Chriss in 2nd in TRB, while Bender is 2nd in 3PT%. Bender is actually even with Harris in TS%.

But yes, overall, they are behind those two in their development. So while Bender barely had a smidgen more minutes played in his 1st season than Harris/Butler, but this time in their 2nd season, they had caught up. Chriss, yes, has had more minutes. But just like you are using excuses about playing with All-Star Veterans as reasoning why they weren't getting as many touches, well, it works both ways. They also benefit from playing with better players (Rose as a PG back then was miles better than anything we are running out there...)

Point is, sure we can point fingers and say our young guys suck, so on and so forth, but Bender is getting better every game; Chriss unfortunately, well, not so much. But it's not unfathomable to believe that they will get better; as I mentioned and a good example was last night that you can see for yourself. Bender is gaining confidence, and with more playing time/experience, he looks like he might actually get it. Chriss? Not too sure, but it's possible, and it's certainly not too late.

[lilfishi22]

Len has gone stretches in his career where he puts up solid numbers, but then even longer stretches when he just disappears. He needs to be consistent for us to offer him a contract. I think the first step for that to happen is to give him continued minutes in a defined role. I'd like for us to start him and see how he does with that group of players, especially Booker. I know Chandler gets the occasional lob from Booker but I think Len could get some easy put backs or some drop offs (if he doesn't drop the ball), or even some tip outs with the first unit. Let him start and see what he can do, he's only started twice this season and when you aren't in a predefined role I think that affects the outcome of the product.

That's really my entire issue with Len. Some write him off completely without looking at his good games and then there's those who say we ignore his impact on the game. You can't ignore a good game or even a good stretch but you also can't ignore the stretches where he's a complete disappearing act. Almost any player can have a solid 20min of action, a great game, or a strong stretch but the difference between these players and NBA players with long careers is consistency. Len hasn't shown consistency. He's had very good games and then he disappears the next.

I like Len, I think he works hard and when he's on, he's has a real impact on the court but you can't only show up every 2nd or 3rd game. I don't mind having him back but the contract has to in line with his level of consistent production/impact.

[lilfishi22]

Len is playing really well. Averaging a near double double in 21 minutes a game over the past 10 or so. Too bad his career is already over as he has been written off as a complete bust.

Out of curiosity, when exactly do you consider a player a bust? Some people have a very low threshold when it comes to bust like those who already think JJ is a bust 30 games into the season and then there's people with a seemingly very high threshold.

[Wilber85]

Len is playing really well. Averaging a near double double in 21 minutes a game over the past 10 or so. Too bad his career is already over as he has been written off as a complete bust.

Out of curiosity, when exactly do you consider a player a bust? Some people have a very low threshold when it comes to bust like those who already think JJ is a bust 30 games into the season and then there's people with a seemingly very high threshold.

I would give a player 3 years IMO.

If you do not see improvement by year 3 then you are a bust

[Mulhollanddrive]

If we draft Ayton / Bamba would you take these stats in their 5th season?

Per 36:
14.9 points
15.0 rebounds
1.8 blocks
120 O-Rating
108 D-Rating

That's Alex Len.

[lilfishi22]

If we draft Ayton / Bamba would you take these stats in their 5th season?

Per 36:
14.9 points
15.0 rebounds
1.8 blocks
120 O-Rating
108 D-Rating

That's Alex Len.

Never played with a good passing PG either and we saw Gortat get stat padded with / without Nash.

Like Len, I don't want to be talking per36 numbers in their 5th season. Per36 numbers have their place among stats but my view is if we're still talking per36 numbers for a top 3 pick in their 5th season then there is an issue with their true production figures.

[Wilber85]

Per 36 is the dumbest stat in my opinion. First Len will never avg 36 minutes a game, and Second he will never be consistent for 36 minutes.

If I get 1 point 1 rebound and 1 assist in a minute does that mean my per 36 is 36/36/36 . GOAT

[Frank Lee]

Len is playing really well. Averaging a near double double in 21 minutes a game over the past 10 or so. Too bad his career is already over as he has been written off as a complete bust.

too bad he apparently didn't show enough last yr to warrant a reasonable contract extension.... now he is up for bid and good ol' #5 pick may be nothing but a former Sun. Thanks for playing Alex


Isn't this the very risk you run by drafting unready projects who need X amount of time to develop ?

[lilfishi22]

Per 36 is the dumbest stat in my opinion. First Len will never avg 36 minutes a game, and Second he will never be consistent for 36 minutes.

If I get 1 point 1 rebound and 1 assist in a minute does that mean my per 36 is 36/36/36 . GOAT

It is if you use it that way. Understand its limitations, don't overstate it and it's a fine comparison tool

[sunsbum]

Len is playing really well. Averaging a near double double in 21 minutes a game over the past 10 or so. Too bad his career is already over as he has been written off as a complete bust.

too bad he apparently didn't show enough last yr to warrant a reasonable contract extension.... now he is up for bid and good ol' #5 pick may be nothing but a former Sun. Thanks for playing Alex


Isn't this the very risk you run by drafting unready projects who need X amount of time to develop ?

So you jump McD for 3 years about the Alex Len pick, then criticize him for not having Len signed to an extension when he starts playing well. Sounds about right.

[Revived]

If they are, we shouldn't be interested. He likely removes the possibility of us offering a max for the next 2 offseasons, while allowing us to just win enough games to jump up to 7th in the reverse rankings. Neither are ideal. Not to mention he is a soon to be FA.

If we can get him for cheap, aka Bucks pick, I would do it.

And this whole "offering the max thing" needs to stop. Avery Bradley is the tier of kind of players that the Suns can attract. Hell, we would be lucky to even get players in the same tier as Bradley to look at the Suns as a FA destination.

So if getting Bradley means we lose one of those max spots, fine. I'd rather get guys like him who can help turn the Suns into an attractive FA destination rather than remain the WORST FA destination in the league with tons of cap space and end up giving them out to bums.

Right now, the Suns are similar to the Cleveland Browns of the NFL. Browns are a team that often has a lots of cap space and their fans hope to spend it on star high salary players but it never happens because the Browns are the worst Fa destination in football.

This is the most insane logic I have read on this board. It is the logic that led to us trading for Brandon Knight. No more half measures with the hope of one day making the 8 seed. Either get a max guy who is actually worthwhile, or else maintain the flexibility to get that guy in the future. Paying money that knocks us out of any chance for a max offering (the one advantage we actually have in FA), is not somehow better and does not make Phoenix more attractive. The advantage we can sell is Booker and money. You want to eliminate the money part for the sake of a solid role player in Avery Bradley who is nowhere close to a star.

You have to have pieces in place in order for max quality star players to want to play here and those pieces will cost money.

Why do you think Chris Paul wanted to join the Rockets? Its not just because of Harden...its because they have the perfect around Harden too like Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Capela etc which all cost money.

Suns need to spend money and have the right pieces around Booker and then maybe a max star player will want to come and play in Phoenix too just like CP3 did with Houston.

This idea of just saving cap space while standing PAT and hoping some star FA will look and say "Hmm the Suns have been a complete garbage franchise for 7 years and running...maybe I should join them since they can afford me" isn't gonna work since there will be many teams who are closer to being contenders that have the cap space to sign star FAs besides just the Suns.

[Revived]

If we can get him for cheap, aka Bucks pick, I would do it. Bradley isn't good enough by himself for us to win games with him either especially with Booker remaining out.

And this whole "offering the max thing" needs to stop. Avery Bradley is the tier of kind of players that the Suns can attract. Hell, we would be lucky to even get players in the same tier as Bradley to look at the Suns as a FA destination.

So if getting Bradley means we lose one of those max spots, fine. I'd rather get guys like him who can help turn the Suns into an attractive FA destination rather than remain the WORST FA destination in the league with tons of cap space and end up giving them out to bums.

Right now, the Suns are similar to the Cleveland Browns of the NFL. Browns are a team that often has a lots of cap space and their fans hope to spend it on star high salary players but it never happens because the Browns are the worst Fa destination in football.

Why would you give up assets for an expiring player? When he's a free agent he is one guy I think makes some sense to go after but I certainly wouldn't give up assets for a half of year for him in a meaningless year when he could go anywhere he wants in the summer.

Only reason I would do it is to get him here and impress him somehow and start convincing him to resign here while he gets familiar with the coaches and players and perhaps he enjoys the city and such.

Once free agency rolls around, I expect there to be quite a competitive market for Avery Bradley and many, many teams will be willing to pay him the max or close to it so he may not look the Suns way then as its not much of an attractive free agent destination at the moment. I wouldn't give up any quality assets for him but some 2nd rd picks or the Bucks pick which has very low value is something I would consider.

[bwgood77]

If we can get him for cheap, aka Bucks pick, I would do it. Bradley isn't good enough by himself for us to win games with him either especially with Booker remaining out.

And this whole "offering the max thing" needs to stop. Avery Bradley is the tier of kind of players that the Suns can attract. Hell, we would be lucky to even get players in the same tier as Bradley to look at the Suns as a FA destination.

So if getting Bradley means we lose one of those max spots, fine. I'd rather get guys like him who can help turn the Suns into an attractive FA destination rather than remain the WORST FA destination in the league with tons of cap space and end up giving them out to bums.

Right now, the Suns are similar to the Cleveland Browns of the NFL. Browns are a team that often has a lots of cap space and their fans hope to spend it on star high salary players but it never happens because the Browns are the worst Fa destination in football.

Why would you give up assets for an expiring player? When he's a free agent he is one guy I think makes some sense to go after but I certainly wouldn't give up assets for a half of year for him in a meaningless year when he could go anywhere he wants in the summer.

Only reason I would do it is to get him here and impress him somehow and start convincing him to resign here while he gets familiar with the coaches and players and perhaps he enjoys the city and such.

Once free agency rolls around, I expect there to be quite a competitive market for Avery Bradley and many, many teams will be willing to pay him the max or close to it so he may not look the Suns way then as its not much of an attractive free agent destination at the moment. I wouldn't give up any quality assets for him but some 2nd rd picks or the Bucks pick which has very low value is something I would consider.

There are not that many teams that will have that much cap space to sign him that would offer him a lot. My guess is Detroit will want to keep him if possible. He may be worth a shot depending on who we draft, our plans and targets this summer and next and the need for some defense (though he doesn't always measure out well from advanced perspective but I've read analysts have said this is a bit misleading but can't currently remember the reason why).

[Frank Lee]

Len is playing really well. Averaging a near double double in 21 minutes a game over the past 10 or so. Too bad his career is already over as he has been written off as a complete bust.

too bad he apparently didn't show enough last yr to warrant a reasonable contract extension.... now he is up for bid and good ol' #5 pick may be nothing but a former Sun. Thanks for playing Alex


Isn't this the very risk you run by drafting unready projects who need X amount of time to develop ?

So you jump McD for 3 years about the Alex Len pick, then criticize him for not having Len signed to an extension when he starts playing well. Sounds about right.

Dude... I havent jumped McD about selecting Len anymore than you, quit pretending... Besides, you miss the point. Im saying when you draft these extremely raw youngsters, it may take longer for them to develop into the player you envisioned than the time you have them under contractual control.

Its a chink in the Tank's armor.

Warren was extended, and never risked to the open market... Booker will be too. Len ran through his time here and now will be subject to auction. May be we keep him ... who knows? He would have been cheaper to sign last year than likely this one, but his play wasn't at the level he has shown over the past dozen games. Also, Len may feel slighted somewhat with McD inking up Williams.... I dont know if we can control where he goes, or sign and trade him or ???

Its just the way it is.... Len apparently was on the 6 year timeline.

[King4Day]

Per 36 is the dumbest stat in my opinion. First Len will never avg 36 minutes a game, and Second he will never be consistent for 36 minutes.

If I get 1 point 1 rebound and 1 assist in a minute does that mean my per 36 is 36/36/36 . GOAT

Agreed. I don't think he'll return next year regardless how well he plays

[AtheJ415]

Tobias Harris didn't average the almighty 12 ppg by age 20. Clearly a complete bust. They should trade him for Zach Randolph or Manu Ginobli.

Straightforward ignorance and inability to look at the fact that Harris was behind two veteran SFs his first two years and was traded away by the Bucks before he broke out. This is the situation with every player you give as a poor counter example. Butler behind quality players and not getting touchs, never going to get shots over Rose, Deng, Noah, and Boozer. Compare that to Chriss and Bender who have both been starters and given lots of opportunity but just don't step up to the plate take it. Open you eyes and use that little bit of logic that you think you possess and spout off about all the time in your posts. Personally most of your arguments are illogical and make very, very little sense.

Oh, I know..Bender has started a ton...a whole ONE game, and averaged 13.3 MPG compared to Butler's 8.5 MPG in his 1st Season...or Harris' 11.4 (over 9 GS more than Bender...which was ZERO)

http://bkref.com/tiny/DUMZ1

By season two, though...watch out...Bender has started ONE game, and is averaging 20.5 MPG vs Butler (26.0 and 20 GS) and Harris (23.6 and 34 GS). Yep somehow Harris and Butler, not getting opportunities like Bender has, really slowed their development...

http://bkref.com/tiny/yWdKu

"But Chriss has started!!!" Yeah, and played 20MPG...ALSO, less than Butler and Harris in their 2nd season...and Ingram and Gordon. Gordon was scoring a whopping 9.2 PPG.

Then let's look at per36, and low and behold, Bender and Chriss leading the way in Blks...Chriss in 2nd in TRB, while Bender is 2nd in 3PT%. Bender is actually even with Harris in TS%.

But yes, overall, they are behind those two in their development. So while Bender barely had a smidgen more minutes played in his 1st season than Harris/Butler, but this time in their 2nd season, they had caught up. Chriss, yes, has had more minutes. But just like you are using excuses about playing with All-Star Veterans as reasoning why they weren't getting as many touches, well, it works both ways. They also benefit from playing with better players (Rose as a PG back then was miles better than anything we are running out there...)

Point is, sure we can point fingers and say our young guys suck, so on and so forth, but Bender is getting better every game; Chriss unfortunately, well, not so much. But it's not unfathomable to believe that they will get better; as I mentioned and a good example was last night that you can see for yourself. Bender is gaining confidence, and with more playing time/experience, he looks like he might actually get it. Chriss? Not too sure, but it's possible, and it's certainly not too late.

Seriously, there is no winning with Bigfoot. You either point out historical facts and trends, which he ignores, while he points to specific anecdotes as proof of his view while simultaneously seeing players as either stars or complete busts with 0 middle ground. When you point out similar anecdotes, he uses subjective logic like "they are battling for spots on playoff teams". Tobias Harris was on AWFUL magic teams and Bucks teams. They were nothing special. He barely played because he simply wasn't all that good until later on in his career, despite being significantly older than the Suns players he attacks repeatedly.

[AtheJ415]

I think its more than just playing for a paycheck. He has simplified his game. No more top of the key mid-range jumpers. He stays close to the hoop. Rebounds very well. Protects the rim.

We should keep him if we can. Of course, it will depend on the draft. If we draft Ayton or Bamba, I don't think he will stay no matter how much money we throw at him.

He has protected the rim for years. He was one of the best rim protectors in the entire league for his age just last season. People have just chosen to ignore that since they already wrote him off as a bust.

I did not say he didn’t. And there are reasons people had written him off. He signed the qualifying offer. That usually means he is a bust for the team that drafted him. I doubt we will be able to resign him.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

The reasons people wrote him off as a bust aren't valid. In his awful draft, he isn't. He is likely a 10 year NBA player who is a good backup or low end starter. He is not a bad player and hasn't been for years.

[Frank Lee]

and all you guys clamoring for a Point Guard forget we have 28 million bucks worth of one recovering.