Fry opting out?

[Ring_Wanted]

I've always thought that Frye is a decent defender, but that's not been the case for weeks now. He is not alone there, as Kieff is quite hollow too, and Miles is not providing the protection he used to. Our defense has been noticeable poor, to put it kindly, since the allstar break, and Channing is not an exception. But speaking about Frye, I've seen him play more than decent defense on guys like Aldridge, Griffin or Love.

I believe that the current state of our defense is due mainly to fatigue, which also affects Frye after one year out. When you are tired usually it's defense and rebounding what suffer the most then long distance shots. Miles and Bledsoe are rookie starters, and I buy the notion that it's a huge factor.

I don't see it as an excuse, just the way things are. There is no comparison between recent games and the energy we had during the first half of the season, with almost everybody visibly affected. The ones I see less impacted are Goran (who has one starter season under his belt, although his defense has been subpar all season long), PJ Tucker, Green and the Morrii (at least on offense).

As for Frye's statistical mysteries, I really don't care, but I don't find it so hard to believe that he is a net positive especially if a certain stat allegedly takes care of most aspects of the game, as he is a role player who knows his game and sticks to it, and above all, he barely makes mistakes with the ball, which has to matter a ton in the world of numbers.

[Wannabe MEP]

You can "Los Soles"me until the cows come home, but I'm not going to agree that Channing Frye isnt a one-trick pony.. who has lost his trick right now.

I've been verbized.

Look, I don't know what the story is with Frye's shot right now. It might just be that 3-point shooters have ups-and-downs (mathematically, it just works out that way). It might be that he's tired. It might be that he's not catching it in rhythm as much with Bledsoe dominating the ball more now (because he doesn't look for Frye as much as Dragic). It might be something physical/emotional/spiritual/relational that we don't know about.

But I think we have to give him the benefit of the doubt:

1) RPM says he's far-and-away our best big on the roster.
2) Regardless of what you think his individual contribution is...or is not, you have to acknowledge that he's been part of some excellent units, both this year and in the past, particularly when paired with Dragic.
3) The current starting unit has been rocking it since everyone's been back.
4) Defensive RPM says he's a slight positive on defense -- better than Markieff and Len.

That last one is interesting. With a few players, it's very obvious that they're playing really good, or really bad, defense. But I think it's really hard to evaluate players like Markieff and Frye: they're clearly not Garnett-level, but they're also clearly not in the Bargs/Amare stratosphere of defensive worthlessness.

Steals and Blocks does not always equal good defence.

Right. Box score stats are really terrible at evaluating defense, period. Lots of blocks and steals? Might be gambling way too much and giving up lots of easy looks in the process. Hardly any blocks and steals? Might be playing excellent positional defense, helping make the other team inefficient. So we're left with...

1) Eye test
2) Lineup data
3) Advanced stats like RPM, or advanced tracking analytic (if available)

I gotta go with a combo of all three. But let me just say that if #1 is ALL that you use...don't be arrogant about it. It's harder to evaluate than you think it is. Defensive positioning is subtle and complex, even in a de facto individual sport like baseball: http://grantland.com/features/the-trage ... r-defense/

How much more so in a team sport like basketball?

[Revived]

Los Soles, you gotta use the advanced stats in context man.

I went to the link you posted on GD and even the folks there was saying how it's ridicous that according to that stat, Frye is better than Blake Griffin. And no Frye isn't better than Griffin and before you say "Frye is better for our team because of the spacing he prov.." No he isn't, Griffin would be better on the Suns even if he can't shoot 3s at a high clip.

I'll admit that advanced stats are useful but not if that's all that you rely on. Even PER can be extremely bogus.

The only advanced stat that I love a lot and use often without context is TS%.

I just think PER, Defensive Win Shares, RPM etc can all be misleading.

[Wannabe MEP]

Los Soles, you gotta use the advanced stats in context man.

Agreed. You do the same, like I just mentioned in my previous post (eye test + lineup data + advanced stats).

I went to the link you posted on GD and even the folks there was saying how it's ridicous that according to that stat, Frye is better than Blake Griffin.

1) It's the general board. What did you expect? People cherry-picked surprising results to discredit the stat. ("OBVIOUSLY player A is better than player B. EVERYONE knows that. This stat suggests the opposite. So this stat is worthless.") What brilliant logic. You were supposed to ALSO read the, you know, intelligent posts.

2) It puts their RPM numbers very close, much too close to conclude that Frye is "better." That difference is statistically insignificant.

3) Different players, different teams, different roles. Both players have been part of effective lineups. The fact that Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee is right there in the elite lineups conversation with Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan is SHOCKING. The credit for the Suns' success has to go somewhere: advanced stats suggest that Frye gets a fair chunk of it. That doesn't mean he's "better" than Griffin, but that his value to his team, in his current role, is in the same ballpark.

RPM is able to tease that kind of thing out pretty well by comparing different lineups and such. As a quick, over-simplified example, the Clippers without Griffin on the court have been better than the Suns without Frye (e.g., Paul-Collison-Barnes-Dudley-Jordan is +28.9). But if we were looking at multiple seasons, with more role-changes, RPM/RAPM numbers might be expected to shift in Griffin's direction (in fact, that's exactly what we see in this multi-year RAPM rating: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2014.html).

I'd personally choose Griffin over Frye (but it would depend on context, because price and spacing are very, very significant factors).

But we're arbitrarily pitting Frye vs Griffin -- I'd love to have them both playing together.

And no Frye isn't better than Griffin and before you say "Frye is better for our team because of the spacing he prov.." No he isn't, Griffin would be better on the Suns even if he can't shoot 3s at a high clip.

Umm...thank you for your opinion?

I'll admit that advanced stats are useful but not if that's all that you rely on.

Why do people always say this kind of thing? Who only relies on advanced stats?

Even PER can be extremely bogus.

I just think PER, Defensive Win Shares, RPM etc can all be misleading.

"Even PER"?!? EVEN PER?????? Please don't imply that PER is in the same stratosphere as APM/RAPM/RPM ever again.

[RaisingArizona]

Steals and Blocks does not always equal good defence.

True, but both are defensive stats that many here live and die talking about.

You can "Los Soles"me until the cows come home, but I'm not going to agree that Channing Frye isnt a one-trick pony.. who has lost his trick right now.

This.

[Jdiddy701]

Tired of waiting for Frye to get it going. He gets in shooting slumps every season and it usually lasts for too long.

Frye is a good guy and a great teammate, but I don't want him on the team next season. I would trade him for a 2nd round pick if possible this offseason. We need a legit PF. If Suns get a starting PF, Frye is gone. No reason to have a contract like that come off the bench next season. This is his last year in Phoenix. Hopefully he leaves with making shots.

[Revived]

That doesn't mean he's "better" than Griffin, but that his value to his team, in his current role, is in the same ballpark.

...

I'd personally choose Griffin over Frye (but it would depend on context, because price and spacing are very, very significant factors).

If you went up to anyone including Hornacek and hell go ask Phil Jackson and Popovich also and asked them "Would you rather have Frye for $6M on the Suns team who plays a certain style or would you rather have Griffin on the max on that same Suns team?", I'm 99% sure that they would say "Obviously Griffin".
I just don't think +/- carries that much merit.

I'll admit that advanced stats are useful but not if that's all that you rely on.

Why do people always say this kind of thing? Who only relies on advanced stats?

Me and (at least) some others here feel like you do. I have never seen you post something during a game or even after a game as just your opinion without advanced stats being the reason for you posting that. What I'm saying is that I have never seen you post something like "Wow that was a great game, Dragic really helped with that comeback. I thought Plumlee played good help defense today" etc.

Instead you always come in after the game and post:

Frye +5000
Kiefff +whatever #

I won't blame you or even say anything bad at all that you don't post during games when the rest of us (I watch games live and post at least 70% of the time this season) are seeing Frye make stupid plays and brick open 3s that Dragic and Bledsoe work so hard to get him because I understand that you could be working, or have school or have whatever matter which has higher priority than a basketball game. Totally understandable.

"Even PER"?!? EVEN PER?????? Please don't imply that PER is in the same stratosphere as APM/RAPM/RPM ever again.

Ha my bad. Usually I see people using advanced stats and PER is the one that they use the most. When Dragic had the highest PER of all SGs in the league, I remember many Suns fans on forums using that to show that he's better than Harden and that he's the best SG in the league.

Doesn't PER take +/- into account though?

And I got a question for you...you talk about how important Frye is to the Suns..but how important are the Suns to Frye? Do you think there's any other winning team in the league that would start him or allow him to have the success he's had through out his time in PHX? At first I thought that a team like the Rockets would work for him because Dwight would get him open looks but Dragic and Bledsoe have done a magnificent job of getting him wide open looks and he's still missed them.

Plus the Rockets seem to like a guy like Jones who is a good defender and presence in the paint and has some offensive skill too in the paint. Not sure Frye would get as many mins on any other team like he does here.

Second question, don't you think any stretch 4 can replicate Frye's advanced stats if that stretch 4 played for the Suns? BTW I don't count Kieff as a stretch 4 simply cause he does a lot of his damage in the paint and mid range.

[Wannabe MEP]

Doesn't PER take +/- into account though?

No.

I just don't think +/- carries that much merit.

Except that the dudes who are creating things like APM/RAPM/RPM are all getting hired by NBA teams. And this is the kind of thing they talk about at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference every year, which includes a huge chunk of NBA decision-makers. Lots of teams put a lot of time and money into these kinds of stats.

Me and (at least) some others here feel like you do. I have never seen you post something during a game or even after a game as just your opinion without advanced stats being the reason for you posting that. What I'm saying is that I have never seen you post something like "Wow that was a great game, Dragic really helped with that comeback. I thought Plumlee played good help defense today" etc.

Instead you always come in after the game and post:

Frye +5000
Kiefff +whatever #

I won't blame you or even say anything bad at all that you don't post during games when the rest of us (I watch games live and post at least 70% of the time this season) are seeing Frye make stupid plays and brick open 3s that Dragic and Bledsoe work so hard to get him because I understand that you could be working, or have school or have whatever matter which has higher priority than a basketball game. Totally understandable.

I watch the games pretty frequently, but I'm focused on the game, not on realgm. I'll swing by here occasionally during the game, but usually just and-1 a couple things.

I'm not a web chit-chat kinda guy. If I say something, it's usually because I'm seeing something that no one else is mentioning, such as the following from a couple games ago:

I thought Shavlik was player of the game. That guy does so many little things to help his team. Reminds me of Nick Collison.

In the case of Frye and plus-minus, I bring it up because of the radical disconnect between what I'm seeing and what a lot of people on the board are saying. I wouldn't bring it up repeatedly if it weren't for that. +/- gives me actual facts to use, rather than just a war of opinions.

Before those RPM numbers came out, if we'd asked the board where Frye would land among the 435 players on that list, they would have said somewhere around 300, I'm guessing. He ended up #23. MASSIVE disconnect. I bring that kind of thing up, and y'all never consider re-evaluating your own position: it's all about discrediting a stat that you don't even try to understand, or insisting that Los doesn't watch the games. You're comfortable with the idea that your opinion just has to be correct because of your extensive basketball training and knowledge; no one could possibly come from a different angle and understand something that you don't.

Plus-minus isn't even an advanced stat, by the way. It's just saying, "While Frye was on the court, the Suns outscored the other team by this much. While he wasn't on the court, the Suns were outscored by this much." Nothing advanced about that. It only becomes advanced when you take advanced formulas to a massive bank of lineup data and kick out things like RPM.

Not everyone has to use realgm the way you use it. That doesn't mean I'm not watching the games.

[Revived]

Not everyone has to use realgm the way you use it. That doesn't mean I'm not watching the games.

That's fair.

[bigfoot]

Channing Frye on Coach Horny:

"I'll even use my personal case. I haven't been shooting necessarily well the past couple games, but you know I understand that tonight they (the Thunder) only played one big, tonight wasn't going to be my night unless I was hot, and I understand that. I know that. I'm ready to be ready whenever Jeff calls my name. At the same time, he's going to play the guys who are going to do the best for us. Guys respect that."

http://msn.foxsports.com/arizona/story/ ... lay-040814

[Revived]

Looked like Popovich took a page out of D'Antoni's defensive game plan (never thought I would say that in my life) and left Frye open while tightly guarding everyone else.

And of course, Frye proved them right and bricked all the open 3s.

How much longer do you think using Frye as a "decoy" will work? His reputation as a 3pt shooter is no longer getting him the respect from opposing defenses. Reputation can't hold a person forever can it?

[Wannabe MEP]

Looked like Popovich took a page out of D'Antoni's defensive game plan (never thought I would say that in my life) and left Frye open while tightly guarding everyone else.

And of course, Frye proved them right and bricked all the open 3s.

Give it a rest, bro. He scored 13 points on 9 shots, and he missed two shots the entire second half (one at the end of a shot-clock, the other in a desperation sequence at the end of the game).

Part of the problem was that Bledsoe, unlike Dragic, doesn't look for Frye. He gets blinders on after the screen and goes hell-bent for the hoop. Hence 7 turnovers. The Spurs were smart to focus on Bledsoe -- not because of Frye, but because of Bledsoe.

(And because I have to: Frye +2, Morrii combined -21)

[gaspar]

via Coro:

Frye would like to negotiate a contract extension after averaging 11.2 points and 5.1 rebounds this season on 43.3 percent shooting, including 37.1 percent on 3s.

"I want to talk to the Suns and make sure we're both on the same page about what I want," Frye said. "I'd love to stay here. It's up to them and their future and what they want to do. I love wearing this uniform. I think I take a little more pride in it than everyone else because I'm from here.

"It's looking for the future and if I could get something longer. I got kids and I want to be somewhere. I've been here for five years already so it wouldn't be bad to kind of not be worried about being traded or buying a house."

[nevetsov]

Worried about buying a house? Didn't you just earn $6m+ this season, Channing?

[BobbieL]

I am totally not sure on how I feel about both Frye coming back and longer term. He did start every game this year. Was good at times. Other times, not so good. Maybe the legs got tired the last two weeks as his shots seemed short. But he was very good for awhile there.

I just am not sure if I want the guy back. If he does opt out, I think he goes to OKC or Houston.

[RunDogGun]

Worried about buying a house? Didn't you just earn $6m+ this season, Channing?

Since I am going through the moving process again, with two kids in tow, I can understand someone not wanting to move again. Even if you have a company do it, there is so much involved, and quite stressful.

But since he loves being here, and now that he will have the whole summer to work on his game, maybe he works on fixing issues with some of his defense, and develop a good post game.

[NaturalBuns]

McD won't commit long term for his production.
I can't believe frye even said that like as if teams are going to give him a long deal

[RunDogGun]

McD won't commit long term for his production.
I can't believe frye even said that like as if teams are going to give him a long deal

Totally, why would a smart guy like McD want a guy on his team, who has made the team better every year he has been with the team.

Regardless of how people feel about Frye, it is well known that the spacing he provides makes the team better on offense, and it really isn't close compared to anyone else that isn't a point. Moreover, Frye knows those numbers, and so do many others such as GMs and coaches. If we want to continue with a Bledsoe/Goran backcourt, Frye gives them so much room to work. I totally agree that he didn't play his best this season, but oddly he still provided that spacing, and even guys like Markieff played better alongside Frye.

[NaturalBuns]

McD won't commit long term for his production.
I can't believe frye even said that like as if teams are going to give him a long deal

Totally, why would a smart guy like McD want a guy on his team, who has made the team better every year he has been with the team.

Regardless of how people feel about Frye, it is well known that the spacing he provides makes the team better on offense, and it really isn't close compared to anyone else that isn't a point. Moreover, Frye knows those numbers, and so do many others such as GMs and coaches. If we want to continue with a Bledsoe/Goran backcourt, Frye gives them so much room to work. I totally agree that he didn't play his best this season, but oddly he still provided that spacing, and even guys like Markieff played better alongside Frye.

He didn't finish the 4th Qs majority of the year because his defense was a liability and his shot was off.
He's a solid high screen player sets good picks.


Frye is expendable.

[RunDogGun]

McD won't commit long term for his production.
I can't believe frye even said that like as if teams are going to give him a long deal

Totally, why would a smart guy like McD want a guy on his team, who has made the team better every year he has been with the team.

Regardless of how people feel about Frye, it is well known that the spacing he provides makes the team better on offense, and it really isn't close compared to anyone else that isn't a point. Moreover, Frye knows those numbers, and so do many others such as GMs and coaches. If we want to continue with a Bledsoe/Goran backcourt, Frye gives them so much room to work. I totally agree that he didn't play his best this season, but oddly he still provided that spacing, and even guys like Markieff played better alongside Frye.

He didn't finish the 4th Qs majority of the year because his defense was a liability and his shot was off.
He's a solid high screen player sets good picks.


Frye is expendable.

Oh, sorry, I didn't realize Hornacek consulted you about his rotations, and why he played certain guys at certain times.