Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds)

AtheJ415 · Post #81 » by **AtheJ415** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 7:10 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:I find the Hollinger odds somewhat hilarious. Suns were 60% last week. Lose 2 games, one they were not favored in and another they were barely favored in, while OKC loses to 2 inferior opponents, and our odds drop in half while NO in particular skyrockets despite not taking advantage of their easy schedule, dropping to NYC and Philly? LMFAO.

Part of those odds are based on the teams ahead of us, as some of our chances (as well as the team's below us) include some percentage of chance a team above us drops out. My guess is they all won, dropping those odds.

Okay, but that should hurt all the teams beneath them. It shouldn't somehow help NO and OKC relative to us.

Post #82 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 7:40 pm

AtheJ415 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:I find the Hollinger odds somewhat hilarious. Suns were 60% last week. Lose 2 games, one they were not favored in and another they were barely favored in, while OKC loses to 2 inferior opponents, and our odds drop in half while NO in particular skyrockets despite not taking advantage of their easy schedule, dropping to NYC and Philly? LMFAO.

Part of those odds are based on the teams ahead of us, as some of our chances (as well as the team's below us) include some percentage of chance a team above us drops out. My guess is they all won, dropping those odds.

Okay, but that should hurt all the teams beneath them. It shouldn't somehow help NO and OKC relative to us.

Since it's all formula driven, and margin of victory is a part of it, that is probably the reason for this since we were blown out, and also the Pelicans beat Dallas, which is a good win.

Post #83 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:46 am

If Carlisle wasn't such a damn good coach, Dallas might be the team to drop out. They are not playing very well right now.

JTrain · Post #84 » by **JTrain** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 5:55 am

Problem is, Dallas has maybe the easiest remaining schedule in the West.

Revived · Post #85 » by **Revived** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:22 pm

bwgood77 wrote:If Carlisle wasn't such a damn good coach, Dallas might be the team to drop out. They are not playing very well right now.

They absolutely suck against West playoff teams

JTrain · Post #86 » by **JTrain** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:42 pm

Hollinger currently projecting 44 wins for NO, PHX and OKC.

My prediction is OKC 47, NO 45, PHX 45

Revived · Post #87 » by **Revived** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:43 pm

Does Hollinger show which games he expects us to win and which games he expects us to lose?

gaspar · Post #88 » by **gaspar** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:13 pm

Damn, that's a lot of games against tired opponents for the Suns.

JTrain · Post #89 » by **JTrain** » Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:42 am

SF88 wrote:Does Hollinger show which games he expects us to win and which games he expects us to lose?

Not that I'm aware of, but you could probably get a good idea by looking at his power rankings and adding 3-4 to the home team:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

JTrain · Post #90 » by **JTrain** » Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:49 am

gaspar wrote:

Damn, that's a lot of games against tired opponents for the Suns.

I'd like to see the collective NBA's record in B2Bs vs. non-B2Bs. Anyone know where to get this?

JTrain · Post #91 » by **JTrain** » Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:08 am

OK, so there isn't a lot of data obviously but on average, a team's winning percentage decreases 5.3% in the second game of a back to back this year. So a team winning 60.5% of it's games is likely to win 55.2% of its second B2Bs.

bigfoot · Post #92 » by **bigfoot** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Interesting article on Brightside

http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2015/ ... th-in-west

If 50 wins is the measuring stick I like the Suns chances. Durant with a bad big toe and Unibrow with a groin pull, although unfortunate for them, help our cause. The Suns have gone 15-6 or .721 since inserting Len into the starting lineup. With 35 games left they need to go 23-12 or .657. Certainly doable.

JTrain · Post #93 » by **JTrain** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:42 pm

Highly doubt the #8 teams hits 50 wins. More likely in the 45-47 range. The Thunder will need to win some big games like the one tomorrow.

AtheJ415 · Post #94 » by **AtheJ415** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:45 am

JTrain wrote:Highly doubt the #8 teams hits 50 wins. More likely in the 45-47 range. The Thunder will need to win some big games like the one tomorrow.

I think so too, and it's actually better for us to get the 8 with as few wins as possible for draft pick purposes. I do think that regardless of the number, we'll be that 8 seed this year, pending some crazy suspension to Kieff.

JTrain · Post #95 » by **JTrain** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:55 am

6 Dallas 31-17
7 San Antonio 30-17
8 Phoenix 28-20
9 New Orleans 25-22
10 Oklahoma City 23-23

Bogyo · Post #96 » by **Bogyo** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:25 am

And how are we looking in the Hollinger odds at the moment?
For some reason I'm starting to smell playoffs for these Suns (I wasn't an optimist so far). This could take some of the sting out of not having the Lakers pick, which is like 99% sure now...

JTrain · Post #97 » by **JTrain** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 2:15 am

If OKC loses tonight, I might actually root for them in the back to back with the Pelicans.

JTrain · Post #98 » by **JTrain** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 6:10 pm

Who are we rooting for tonight?

gaspar · Post #99 » by **gaspar** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 6:25 pm

JTrain wrote:Who are we rooting for tonight?

An asteroid striking the Smoothie King Center would be perfect.

Revived · Post #100 » by **Revived** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 8:07 pm

JTrain wrote:Who are we rooting for tonight?

OKC. Pelicans have looked GOOD ever since Jrue Holliday got injured.

That Evans-Gordon backcourt is balling.