Is Earl Watson doing a good job?

[carey]

That reddit piece is excellent and illustrates my exact feeling about Watson, his hiring, and how he's coached so far. Glad to see that some of you feel the same.

[Zelaznyrules]

That reddit piece is excellent and illustrates my exact feeling about Watson, his hiring, and how he's coached so far. Glad to see that some of you feel the same.

Yeah, those are some frighteningly bad stats but to be fair, he did leave out the few positive numbers. And I think it's safe to say that those numbers wouldn't look anywhere near as bad if Knight was playing like the player he was supposed to be rather than arguably the worst player in the league. Perhaps another coach could get more out of him and perhaps another coach wouldn't play him at all but my point is that his play has a lot to do with our low position in so many categories. We'd still be out of the playoff hunt but those numbers would be much closer to the middle if Knight had been abducted by aliens in September.

Given that all I really care about this season is maintaining a high draft position while developing Len, Booker, Chriss, Bender, Ulis and Watson, I think there's still plenty of time to make this season a positive one. You're almost never going to get a full season of quality minutes from the really young players so if we start seeing double digit minutes every game for most of those guys by the all star break, I'll call this one a huge success. All the while, Watson can grow into his role as a coach and management can see whether he's worth keeping for the long run or just a stand-in for the coach that will take over when we're ready to win.

[bwgood77]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5k5kzm/earl_watson_is_quietly_making_a_run_at_being_the/?

Perhaps a bit hyperbolic at times, but pretty much sums up my sentiments on Watson so far.

It's right. Hornacek was 10x the better coach with potential until he had to deal with crappy situations, than Watson, but Watson is a great guy to make the team all love each other. That does have some importance, but unless we learn from here, we have a pretty ugly few years. Obviously the players will be better and the Warriors will be juggernauts, so I'm not as concerned, and we can keep getting high draft picks with Watson in command, but I think a better coach for these players to learn actual basketball stuff would be preferable.

I'm glad the feel like a family and like yoga, but this is a basketball team that needs to have a plan of how to beat a team, not just mindfulness.

[bwgood77]

But even if they're playing Tucker to boost up is his value, is it really neccessary to give him 40+ mins every night? He's been in the league for 5 years, I'm pretty sure that GM's know what he's capable of. Overplaying him to the maximum isn't really going to change his value that drastically imo.

No, giving him this many minutes is completely useless. Guess where my vote went in the poll...
Giannis played like 24 minutes in his rookie season with the Bucks, and made plenty of bad plays and rookie mistakes, but was allowed to grow through these. Bucksfans be praisin' the Lord for it as he is putting up videogame numbers this year, and he is still improving.
I don't see why Bender could not be something similar with adequate coaching, becouse he has done some amazing things (with some pretty bad rookie mistakes) when given minutes, and he has no role whatsoever when he enters the game, besides standing in the corner. Talk about bad coaching, Mr “For us, what I do not want to happen is I never want Dragan Bender to consistently know what it feels like to not play. That can’t happen”...

There are many words that can describe Bender's performance this year, but "amazing" is definitely not one of them. You are in for a big disappointment, if expect Bender to be anywhere as good as Giannis. Otto Porter - another forward from Giannis' draft who was picked in the top-3 and played only 300 minutes in his rookie season (and BTW is still most likely gonna get a max contract this summer) is probably a more realistic comparison for Bender. I think some of you are majorly underestimating how raw and physically underdeveloped Bender is right now.

He's raw, but I'd be happy if he ended up as good as Porter at that point in his career. I think he will have some additional strengths as well though due to his length.

[darealjuice]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5k5kzm/earl_watson_is_quietly_making_a_run_at_being_the/?

Perhaps a bit hyperbolic at times, but pretty much sums up my sentiments on Watson so far.

It's right. Hornacek was 10x the better coach with potential until he had to deal with crappy situations, than Watson, but Watson is a great guy to make the team all love each other. That does have some importance, but unless we learn from here, we have a pretty ugly few years. Obviously the players will be better and the Warriors will be juggernauts, so I'm not as concerned, and we can keep getting high draft picks with Watson in command, but I think a better coach for these players to learn actual basketball stuff would be preferable.

I'm glad the feel like a family and like yoga, but this is a basketball team that needs to have a plan of how to beat a team, not just mindfulness.

Come on man, development doesn't happen overnight and you know that. We're not going to really see the effects of Watson's coaching on our young guys for at least another year, and it's way too early to pretend he has no idea what he's doing in terms of player development, especially when that was why he was brought here from the Spurs in the first place. We drafted 2 of the raw-est players in an underwhelming draft, expecting significant minutes and contributions from them 30 games into the season was far too optimistic, regardless of how much we don't like the people ahead of them getting minutes.

It's not like Hornacek handled his young players any better either, TJ barely saw the court his rookie year despite coming into the league as the best scorer in college basketball while PJ was getting 30 mpg, Len averaged 8 minutes a game his rookie year and was brought in as a project like Bender, and Booker hardly saw the court either before injuries forced him to get out there and Watson came in and drastically increased his playing time. Hornacek would do absolutely nothing with this team either, this roster is not built to win games until our young players hopefully pan out for us.

His rotations have been definitely been questionable, but that's assuming we're not trying to showcase guys like Knight, PJ, Tyson, etc. before the trade deadline. We're running nearly the exact same offense that Portland did with Triano here, but Bledsoe and Booker aren't as good as Dame and CJ on offense and we literally have one good spot up shooter on our entire team right now, so it's not working for us. PJ Tucker ends up being the guy that gets a lot of our wide open shots, and we all know how great of a shooter he is. Not to mention the whole super sixth man Brandon Knight plan everyone was content with going into the season has been a big bust, Booker started the season out poorly and appears to be starting to hit his stride, and Warren was out like 15 games already this season after being the best player on the court for us before that.

I'm not saying he's been a great coach for us, but he is here to develop players and that doesn't happen after 1 training camp and 30 games. We have no idea what happens outside of games either, for all we know we're getting ready to send out Knight, PJ, and Chandler before the trade deadline and will see Ulis, Bender, and Chriss all getting 15+ minutes a game afterwards.

[GMATCallahan]

It's not like Hornacek handled his young players any better either, TJ barely saw the court his rookie year despite coming into the league as the best scorer in college basketball while PJ was getting 30 mpg, Len averaged 8 minutes a game his rookie year and was brought in as a project like Bender, and Booker hardly saw the court either before injuries forced him to get out there and Watson came in and drastically increased his playing time. Hornacek would do absolutely nothing with this team either, this roster is not built to win games until our young players hopefully pan out for us.

I agree that Hornacek (or any coach) would be unlikely to guide this roster out of the lottery. However, the Suns' performance this season, and the fact that Hornacek seems to be doing a solid job in New York, suggests what some of us were saying a year ago: namely, the idea that Hornacek was Phoenix’s problem proved absurd and he was instead suffering from a dysfunctional roster.

I will also note that after the Suns proved surprisingly competitive at the start of Hornacek's first season as head coach, the organization's goals and expectations quickly changed. Instead of simply trying to rebuild and develop young players, Phoenix was seeking to win games, too. The Suns nearly made the playoffs in Hornacek's first year and then were trying to make the playoffs until the point of his firing, more or less. And Warren constituting the best scorer in college basketball was not necessarily going to translate into winning NBA games in his rookie year; P.J. Tucker was vastly superior defensively and probably offered more present value in terms of trying to win games. Len was not ready to make major contributions as a rookie, and the Suns were attempting to protect him, physically, as he returned from a major foot injury. Obviously, they did a good job in that regard and Hornacek should receive some of the credit. As for Booker, he has been an inefficient scorer ever since becoming a starter, and Knight—while always problematic—was playing much better last year, another reason to potentially give Hornacek some credit.

But, yes, this roster is not built to win games. At least the organization and most of the fan base now understand that point, in contrast to the last eleven months or so of Hornacek's tenure when too many people (including the owner and general manager) were apparently suffering from delusions. For a long time, the front office basically set up Hornacek to fail (not deliberately, but through a combination of incoherence, impatience, and even ineptitude outside of the draft).

[darealjuice]

Spoiler:

I agree that Hornacek (or any coach) would be unlikely to guide this roster out of the lottery. However, the Suns' performance this season, and the fact that Hornacek seems to be doing a solid job in New York, suggests what some of us were saying a year ago: namely, the idea that Hornacek was Phoenix’s problem proved absurd and he was instead suffering from a dysfunctional roster.

I will also note that after the Suns proved surprisingly competitive at the start of Hornacek's first season as head coach, the organization's goals and expectations quickly changed. Instead of simply trying to rebuild and develop young players, Phoenix was seeking to win games, too. The Suns nearly made the playoffs in Hornacek’s first year and then were trying to make the playoffs until the point of his firing, more or less. And Warren constituting the best scorer in college basketball was not necessarily going to translate into winning NBA games in his rookie year; P.J. Tucker was vastly superior defensively and probably offered more present value in terms of trying to win games. Len was not ready to make major contributions as a rookie, and the Suns were attempting to protect him, physically, as he returned from a major foot injury. Obviously, they did a good job in that regard and Hornacek should receive some of the credit. As for Booker, he has been an inefficient scorer ever since becoming a starter, and Knight—while always problematic—was playing much better last year, another reason to potentially give Hornacek some credit.

But, yes, this roster is not built to win games. At least the organization and most of the fan base now understand that point, in contrast to the last eleven months or so of Hornacek’s tenure when too many people (including the owner and general manager) were apparently suffering from delusions. For a long time, the front office basically set up Hornacek to fail (not deliberately, but through a combination of incoherence, impatience, and even ineptitude outside of the draft).

I didn't frequent here at all during the Hornacek days, but I wasn't one of the people calling for his head and definitely understood that we set him up to fail, especially with the malcontent sewn into our roster the offseason prior to his departure. I don't think he's an outstanding coach, but he wasn't the main issue here. I think he reason he ended up getting pushed out was because he was losing the respect of the locker room and they were starting to disrespect him in a public setting, to be honest.

I think that Watson and the organization's goal this season still is to make a run at a playoff spot at this point in the season, especially since we're only 4 games out right now. I'm sure that deep down everyone in the organization is starting to realize that it's not going to happen, but I'd be surprised if they truly gave up on that goal prior to making trades/the trade deadline. I also agree that PJ was superior in terms of value compared to Warren his rookie year, and that's why I don't understand why people here freak out so much of Bender not getting his minutes, because while Bender could turn into a better player in the future, Warren had more polish on his game coming into the league and even he fell victim to DNPs and Inactives in favor of PJ, and we've known since the season started that Watson has been vocal about trying to replicate the run we had Hornacek's first year.

I'm also not really sure I'd say they did a good job with the project they picked up in Len. While he's shown some improvement over the years, he's still one of the worst centers out of an already bad draft class despite being the 5th pick overall, and it seems like a lot of people would be displeased if we sign him on an offer similar to one that centers were getting this past offseason. Booker's efficiency was bound to drop regardless of him taking the starting role, he was shooting something like 66% from 3 on relatively low volume prior to taking the job, and I feel some of it stems from him drawing tougher match ups when he's on offense, considering he has had to deal with guys like Klay, Kawhi, PG, and other top defenders as one of the main focuses of our offense without having much help around him besides Bledsoe and Warren to start the season. He hasn't been quite as good as hoped this season, but he's still very young and is expanding his game from just being a spot up shooter like he had been in college. Knight did perform better with Hornacek, but he also had a major drop off coming here from the Bucks, and part of his continued drop off under Watson this year could be attributed to him taking on a new role off the bench as opposed to starting like he has done his entire basketball career stemming back before college, which was inevitable with Booker's emergence as a more traditional shooting guard.

I honestly am starting to think a lot of the reason Watson is head coach here is because of his supposed player development skills and how he motivates and obtains respect from his players, and the organization is looking more towards getting our young players where they need to be to compete than succeeding in the present. Obviously that's just speculation since I'm not at practices or involved with the team, but a lot of what we run is basically a carbon copy of what Triano ran in Portland with less skilled guard play and a slightly worse overall supporting cast, so I think Watson may have more focus on development than he does X's and O's, especially because he was hired as a player development coach here to start with. Unfortunately we won't see if he's had a positive effect on our young core's development for at least another year.

Sorry for the long post

[GMATCallahan]

I didn't frequent here at all during the Hornacek days, but I wasn't one of the people calling for his head and definitely understood that we set him up to fail, especially with the malcontent sewn into our roster the offseason prior to his departure. I don't think he's an outstanding coach, but he wasn't the main issue here. I think he reason he ended up getting pushed out was because he was losing the respect of the locker room and they were starting to disrespect him in a public setting, to be honest.

I think that Watson and the organization's goal this season still is to make a run at a playoff spot at this point in the season, especially since we're only 4 games out right now. I'm sure that deep down everyone in the organization is starting to realize that it's not going to happen, but I'd be surprised if they truly gave up on that goal prior to making trades/the trade deadline. I also agree that PJ was superior in terms of value compared to Warren his rookie year, and that's why I don't understand why people here freak out so much of Bender not getting his minutes, because while Bender could turn into a better player in the future, Warren had more polish on his game coming into the league and even he fell victim to DNPs and Inactives in favor of PJ, and we've known since the season started that Watson has been vocal about trying to replicate the run we had Hornacek's first year.

I'm also not really sure I'd say they did a good job with the project they picked up in Len. While he's shown some improvement over the years, he's still one of the worst centers out of an already bad draft class despite being the 5th pick overall, and it seems like a lot of people would be displeased if we sign him on an offer similar to one that centers were getting this past offseason. Booker's efficiency was bound to drop regardless of him taking the starting role, he was shooting something like 66% from 3 on relatively low volume prior to taking the job, and I feel some of it stems from him drawing tougher match ups when he's on offense, considering he has had to deal with guys like Klay, Kawhi, PG, and other top defenders as one of the main focuses of our offense without having much help around him besides Bledsoe and Warren to start the season. He hasn't been quite as good as hoped this season, but he's still very young and is expanding his game from just being a spot up shooter like he had been in college. Knight did perform better with Hornacek, but he also had a major drop off coming here from the Bucks, and part of his continued drop off under Watson this year could be attributed to him taking on a new role off the bench as opposed to starting like he has done his entire basketball career stemming back before college, which was inevitable with Booker's emergence as a more traditional shooting guard.

I honestly am starting to think a lot of the reason Watson is head coach here is because of his supposed player development skills and how he motivates and obtains respect from his players, and the organization is looking more towards getting our young players where they need to be to compete than succeeding in the present. Obviously that's just speculation since I'm not at practices or involved with the team, but a lot of what we run is basically a carbon copy of what Triano ran in Portland with less skilled guard play and a slightly worse overall supporting cast, so I think Watson may have more focus on development than he does X's and O's, especially because he was hired as a player development coach here to start with. Unfortunately we won't see if he's had a positive effect on our young core's development for at least another year.

Sorry for the long post

I agree with your take on Watson, and I concur that Knight's change in role helps explain his decline in performance. Still, that decline has been so significant (even if Knight was never all that good) as to suggest that the change in role cannot explain it entirely. After all, when he comes off the bench, he still receives plenty of chances with the basketball, especially given that his minutes and Bledsoe's are now more "staggered." I feel that Hornacek, as a guard who could also play both with the basketball and without it, may have given Knight some useful pointers in terms of trying to be more efficient.

I also concur that part of the reason why the Suns fired Hornacek was that he seemed to have lost the team to some extent. Management's main issue, though, was the losing, which some of us felt was never his fault and which certainly seems like even less of his fault now. The question is whether Phoenix canned a good coach needlessly, but as you have indicated, he probably would not have fared much better than Watson this year.

In terms of Len, by "good job" I meant more in terms of keeping him healthy. Whenever you draft a big man with foot or leg problems, there is always the concern that you are making a big mistake along the lines of Sam Bowie or (even worse) Greg Oden. Even more successful/All-Star/Hall of Fame big men with foot problems, such as Bill Walton and Yao Ming, have tended to break down prematurely or be injury-prone. Obviously, Len still has a long ways to go, but he has been healthy thus far and he has shown flashes. He may never be a star, but Len is averaging 10.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.9 blocked shots, and a .569 field goal percentage in 9 starts this season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lenal01/splits/2017

If he becomes a full-time starter and maintains that level of statistical performance, I feel that he will go down as a good pick and certainly a serviceable center.

As you noted, Booker's shooting and scoring efficiency were of course going to decline as his volume expanded, but that decline has been awfully steep (from a .622 True Shooting Percentage as a reserve last year to .522 as a starter last season to .508 this year).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bookede01/splits/2016

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bookede01/splits/2017

I feel that the drop has more to do with his shot selection and learning how to discipline the greater freedom that he now enjoys, along with adjusting to the grind of playing major minutes in the NBA. But like you, I am still optimistic about Booker's future.

And I agree that the Suns are going to still try and compete for now and that Bender's lack of minutes is not troubling at the moment. The difference is that I sense that the organization and fan base now understand that that competition is of the token variety and not something to be seriously measured by. Strategically, the goal of competing for a playoff berth is now more cosmetic, whereas for most of Hornacek's tenure, a genuine yet unrealistic expectation seemed to pervade the Suns and their fans. But in terms of Bender, people want to see him because he at least offers the hope of a brighter tomorrow and because he is a more exciting, unusual, athletic player than guys like Dudley and Tucker. Plus, people tend to become overexcited about the latest young thing. I want to see Bender, too, but there is a process that the Suns need to work though, and if you could hardly make it off the bench in Israel the previous year, you probably are not ready for many NBA minutes at the start of your rookie season.

[thamadkant]

Suns 4 games out of 8th place is a trap.
Lets say, in a weird season... 8th place only required teams to win 35 games... First seed however won 67 games... Clearly 8th seed doesnt really represent a traditional playoff team. And would lose in 3 against first seed... Yes, it would be so badly skewed the 4th game is cancelled.

Watson is confused. Even then technically.. He is poor at strategy and creating plays... He doesnt even use the play board... He talks to his players to motivate them during huddles.

[Bogyo]

Any change of opinions on Watson after this game by Bender?
I guess I'm in a wait and see mode... will he get more playing time or back to the bench and the DNP-CD's.

[Djedefre]

Any change of opinions on Watson after this game by Bender?
I guess I'm in a wait and see mode... will he get more playing time or back to the bench and the DNP-CD's.

Dragan played so much because we got blown out pretty early. When we play 'competitive' games (first 2.5-3 quarters) playing time for our rooks is restricted, especially for Bender and Ulis. If they're lucky they'll get that last 2,3 minutes of the game, if they're not it's going to be another DNP. And it'll be that same ol' story until the math deliberates us from evil. Amen.

[Phoenix-Sons]

I don't know if its the players mentality to just ISO the whole game (Bledsoe, Knight, Booker) or Watson just giving them the greenlight to do whatever they want. If it's the latter he needs to go. That is after he's done leading the tank.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Any change of opinions on Watson after this game by Bender?
I guess I'm in a wait and see mode... will he get more playing time or back to the bench and the DNP-CD's.

It depends on how watson follows up that game. If bender gets extended minutes the next couple games ill be encouraged.... if he plays less than 10 minutes then watson is dumb.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

[sleepyvato]

Watson's days as head coach are numbered and I can't wait till this guy is fired. I hate how he insists on playing vets over our younger players even though those vets are hot garbage with a side of mediocrity.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Watson's days as head coach are numbered and I can't wait till this guy is fired. I hate how he insists on playing vets over our younger players even though those vets are hot garbage with a side of mediocrity.

Hornacek did the same, if you remember.

PJ Tucker seems like a guy who dominates the locker room. He may be the player who most needs to be shipped out of town.

[kennydorglas]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

The difference in mentality is bizarre

[WeekapaugGroove]

Remember when hiring McDonough was sign the suns were going to embrace the analytics movement in the NBA.... ah the good ole days lol

[bwgood77]

Remember when hiring McDonough was sign the suns were going to embrace the analytics movement in the NBA.... ah the good ole days lol

McD was never an analytics guy. Look at Boston. Neither are they. He was always a scout. Nonetheless it's bizarre that Watson says he wants to shoot a lot of 3s and now talks about posting up. He sounds lost.

[kennydorglas]

Remember when hiring McDonough was sign the suns were going to embrace the analytics movement in the NBA.... ah the good ole days lol

He identified Brad Stevens very early and then came here with Hornacek and Watson lol

Not looking good, McD. I think he's gone and would love to give a redemption chance for Hinkie.

[darealjuice]

Someone want to explain what's wrong with what Watson said? All he's saying is that players are evolving to be able to get it done in the post and out on the perimeter like Embiid and KAT do, not that post game is going to ever completely take over or 3 pointers will be obsolete. "It's not saying the 3-point shot will leave, you just seeing guys who are more hybrids of the game"

Looking at basketball from a pure analytics standpoint is stupid, the game is so much more than "Corner 3 = 1.27 points, Post up = .78 points, so shoot 3s all game." You telling me you'd rather have PJ Tucker shooting a wide open corner 3 than LaMarcus Aldridge, Joel Embiid, or KAT posting up Marquese Chriss and Bender? Because I wouldn't, even though the statistical expected value is higher. Calling a post up the worst shot in basketball is absolutely ridiculous. Post game isn't just turn and throw the ball up over your defender like D'Antoni makes it seem either, it's the ability to draw defenders in for kick outs to open shooters, abuse mismatches when guards get caught on switches, and keeping the defense off balance and moving. D'Antoni talks about spacing the floor out, and that's exactly what happens when you have a post presence, because when you have a guy that can score efficiently and pass out of the post like KAT, Embiid, Jokic, etc. do, the defense has to sink and commit to digging down into the post more and leaving shooters more space to get their shot off. It just so happens that the game is evolving to where those guys can all shoot out on the perimeter as well. That's exactly why OKC was able to give the Warriors so much trouble in the WCF, they were able to exploit the defense in ways that the Warriors weren't able to defend as well with Adams and Kanter down low, but their downfall came when they went away from their offense and just had Durant and Westbrook take turns isolating on the 3 point line. The game is never going to be pure analytics, these are just stats invented to attempt to describe the game, not dictate it.

Nowhere did Watson say we're going to be pounding it in the post, we haven't even done that at all this season. If anything, he's been saying all season that we need to be shooting the 3 more. He's just saying that we have 2 players that are versatile enough to be able to shoot 3's on the perimeter and get it done in the post.