hollywood6964 wrote:handsome salary wrote:hollywood6964 wrote:This is so ridiculous. We have let the feminists take over, so not surprising the new level of ridiculous fear.
I went to the grocery store yesterday, n all the nuts are wearing their michael Jackson masks, piling up for the worlds end. All the water was out of stock, etc.
I coughed a few times for effect n everyone started starting at me. I just laughed. Overblown flu virus. Anyone making a big deal out of this is a moron and will feel as such in the next 6 weeks when this all is in the rear view mirror. Then they can act like they weren't the ones wearing masks n talking about this bull 24/7.
Time to hit the stock market.
Thanks Kal El for including almost every a-hole talking point out there.
Please, media pumped, trumped up flu. I can already picture you, and I don't see an S on your chest, rather the image of a white knight. Let's wait a couple weeks and see who ends up being right about this- I have a feeling you won't be sending a conceding message. But no matter, I'll have forgotten about this ridiculousness by then.
I won't be like other posters and just dismiss you as a no-hoper. I'll ask you to look at the statistics. I mean really take time to look at the statistics with an open mind. Don't worry about what news, talking heads (who aren't experts in the field of infectious disease) or the "feminists" are saying, just look at the numbers and look at what other countries are doing to combat this and look at the effects of implementing those social distancing and hygiene measures.
BUT if you can't be bothered reading what I've put together, then watch this. Michael T. Osterholm is a public health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious disease expert in the United States and has served under multiple administrations
His credentials
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/about-us/cidrap-staff/michael-t-osterholm-phd-mphhttps://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99caIf want to know more but you don't want to spend 30min reading through the above article, I'm happy to take time out to give you some key takeaways in some pleasant on the eyes graphs and try my best to keep words to a minimum. All I ask is that you put aside your preconceived notion of the virus for 5-10 min and give me the respect to just have a look through what I've put together like the respect I've given a fellow Suns fan like you by not just dismissing your comment.
I presume you're relatively young or at the least relatively healthy, I think you'll be OK but there are many that aren't and you would know America isn't exactly one of the healthier nations in the world. The problem is when the hospitals get overwhelmed, when those who do need treatment but can't be access and die because of something as dumb as not having enough hospital beds in the richest and most power first world nation.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19 The U.S. has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people (South Korea and Japan, two countries that have seemingly thwarted the exponential case growth trajectory, have more than 12 hospital beds per 1,000 people; even China has 4.3 per 1,000). With a population of 330 million, this is about 1 million hospital beds. At any given time, about 68% of them are occupied. That leaves about 300,000 beds available nationwide.
At a [conservative] 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. And with many patients requiring weeks of care, turnover will slow to a crawl as beds fill with Covid-19 patients.
The problem isn't that if the outbreak can't be contained that people will just drop off and die in care. The problem is what if those who could be taken care of and receive medical care, can't get access to it because hospitals/health care workers just don't have the capacity or resources?
Containing the spread means you're spreading the load on the hospitals. By spreading the load, more people can get care and there will be less fatalities. Less people who can get care means more people die. That's math, there's no politics in this statement.
Social distancing works. After the initial outbreak in the Hubei province in China, other provinces took those strong measures this is what it looked like vs other countries who didn't learn from China's initial mistakes of not taking it seriously. Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.
- Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
- Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.
Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.
Let's not pretend this is something new to America and learn from American history
Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting
In this theoretical model that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases! So, maybe, if the Hubei authorities had declared the lockdown on 1/22 instead of 1/23, they might have reduced the number of cases by a staggering 20k.
This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. When you’re delaying by a single day a decision, you’re not contributing to a few cases maybe. There are probably hundreds or thousands of cases in your community already. Every day that there isn’t social distancing, these cases grow exponentially.
This is why the "lets wait a couple of weeks and see who's right" is such a wrong way to think of it.
We don't want you to be wrong, we want you to be right but the numbers don't add up with the seasonal flu and we have to prepare as if you are wrong because if you are wrong and we don't prepare,
we're ALL f***ed. Everyday scientists and experts are looking at the updated numbers hoping something bucks the trend to give them hope that they were wrong but it's been 3 months since the start of the outbreak and every numbers all back up the fact that this is more than just the flu and there is an outbreak. Can't just look at how many die each year from the seasonal flu and compare it to how many have died today and dismiss it because we'll get to that number sooner than you think given its growth, if we do nothing and of course if people like yourself are just trivialising it and coughing everywhere as if it's funny even if you had "just the flu".
If you're right and we're prepared, we'll know next time (there will be a next time) how to be better prepared so there's less panic, less fear mongering early on and we'll how how to better communicate to those in your shoes who don't believe in it, until someone in your family has it or worse, dies from it. Unfortunately, it's always who needs a close one or a family member become a statistic that are the hardest to convince.
