grumpysaddle wrote:bwgood77 wrote:grumpysaddle wrote:
"Simply" getting rid of Frye hurts the team so much more than you think. He's integral to this team's success anyway you slice it, and the way his game is, provided his health is maintained, he can definitely play the same part for the team going forward for the next 4-5 years. He doesn't rely on athleticism for his game, and he had that year off, so that helps a bit with wear and tear. His contract is super reasonable for what he gives the team, and they can probably give him a 3-4 year deal after this contract that is even cheaper. I'm not into throwing players away because another player got injured.
What I'm getting from this post is that you want to get 4 picks so badly to you are willing to turn the team's culture into a stinking pile of crap by not being competitive by any means necessary. I'd rather the Suns keep what they have, play hard for the rest of the season, and barely miss the playoffs than trade away important pieces in the name of getting a pick in the 14-18th spot of the draft, while also making their own pick be in the late, late lottery.
I agree in that I'd like the Suns to keep competing, but it would be nice to get the Minny pick. But that Minny pick (if they make the playoffs) very likely won't be in the 14-18 range, but more likely in the 19-20 range.
If you look at projected records, it's likely that the first 4-5 non lotto picks will all be made by eastern teams. The 8th seed in the west will probably have a better record than 4-5 east teams, so those east teams would get picks 15-18 or 19.
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffoddsSo this obviously also rings true for our own pick. If we make the playoffs it will probably be a pick in the low 20s, but if we miss, it will probably be around 14.
I imagine the Washington pick will probably be late teens, but if they were to miss the playoffs, there is almost no way we would get it, since a handful of western conf teams would probably get picks 11-14.
That's true. I didn't even think about that... just getting to my second cup of coffee now, so my brain wasn't quite awake earlier. That just makes my argument stronger, though.
Yeah, I think it's more important to have (a) four picks in this draft, with (b) one of those picks having the potential to go as low as 10, or even win the lotto. If we don't make the playoffs, we could finish behind Dallas, Denver, Memphis, and the Pelicans, and get our pick. If Minny is worse than #9 in the west, we lose the best of our picks in the draft, and have *only* the 18-ish, 20-ish, and 30th picks. So no, I don't think the discrepancy between the east and the west helps your argument: it highlights the importance of getting a pick from a team that didn't make the playoffs - and by far the best candidate for that pick is our own.
As for trading Frye, I think McD may be of the same mindset, per Zach Lowe:
It's right to be concerned, which is why fans immediately began asking if Phoenix might now try to re-tank. It's a valid question. Phoenix started the season with eyes on the top of the draft, and they were ready to use Channing Frye, a crucial floor-spacer, in various three-team trades centered around Omer Asik, per several league sources familiar with those talks. (Phoenix would not have received Asik in those deals.) Bledsoe's injury ensures that Phoenix would be very, very bad if they found a trade for Goran Dragic.
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... nking-sunsI think trading Frye is the guy we should most be willing to trade, because (a) he could bring us value in trade, (b) we could guarantee less salary for next offseason, and (c) it could dramatically improve our draft position. All of those are long-term goods. On the downside, (d) we will lose more games, perhaps fatally crippling our playoff hopes for this year. That is a short-term good, with the potential long-term good of (e) improved team culture/environment. I don't view (e) as being a strong reason, especially when you consider the composure of our younger guys and the strong, stabilizing influence of Hornacek and his staff.
So, there. That's my argument. I would like to see McD pull the trigger on a deal sending out Frye for a cheap, long-term asset, preferably a pick, but perhaps a young player.
