2014 Draft Thread

[TOO]

Exum hasn't done anything that would put him above Smart at this point IMO. I also think Smart is one of those guys who will blow people away during the interview process. A team like Orlando who will probably land somewhere in the top 5 will snatch up Smart ASAP.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Exum hasn't done anything that would put him above Smart at this point IMO. I also think Smart is one of those guys who will blow people away during the interview process. A team like Orlando who will probably land somewhere in the top 5 will snatch up Smart ASAP.

I disagree I think teams are gonna fall in love with exums raw talent. There's some gms out there kicking themselves for not taking the Greek freak this past draft. Smarts the type of prospect who's gonna get picked apart some and probably should have come out last yr.

[INFORMER-93]

Exum hasn't done anything that would put him above Smart at this point IMO. I also think Smart is one of those guys who will blow people away during the interview process. A team like Orlando who will probably land somewhere in the top 5 will snatch up Smart ASAP.

I disagree I think teams are gonna fall in love with exums raw talent. There's some gms out there kicking themselves for not taking the Greek freak this past draft. Smarts the type of prospect who's gonna get picked apart some and probably should have come out last yr.

Agreed.

[bwgood77]

I don't know about Exum....from all I've heard he could be a super stud, but I haven't seen him. I love Smart though. I think he will be a difference maker in the nba...he does need to learn to shoot, but I think he is a stud. I'm not so high on Randle. Power forwards without much length don't seem too valuable these days and it's not like his numbers have been that great lately either.

[INFORMER-93]

Has anyone been to a D-League game ? Seems like when ever a player like AG goes down, he drops 30+ pts and dominates... is the talent drop off that great ? Would a good college team beat a D-League squad ?

PJ Hairston scored 45 points in a D-League game tonight.

Love that D-League competition. Second only to Summer League of course.

Here's an article analyzing the difference in competition between the d league and NCAA:

http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=11886

Findings

In order to make the stats comparable I normalized them to the NBA’s median pace, slightly slower than the D-League.

For reference, dear departed HoopData listed the median AWS score as 4.6 per forty minutes last year, with former D-Leaguer Shelvin Mack as the median player. In that area are guys like Jason Smith, Marcus Morris, Caron Butler and Brandon Bass, who would all generally be considered rotation players at this stage of their careers.

*The median pace-adjusted AWS for the NCAA players before going into the D-League was 7.8 per 40, right around the level of Chris Bosh, Joakim Noah, and Carmelo Anthony last year. What I would term second-tier stars.

*Of the 31 players I looked at 23 had lower production in the D-League than they had the year before in college as measured by AWS.

*The median difference was -1.6 AWS per 40, putting their D-League production at the level of a good starter like J.J. Redick.

*On specific statistics, True Shooting Percentage fell a median of -1.7%, pace-adjusted rebounds per 40 recorded median of -1.65, steals fell 0.42 per 40 and personal fouls went up 0.6.

*It is important to note that all of the players in the analysis are at the age where we would we expect some improvement in their production against the same level of competition. So the fall in production in the D-League probably understates the difference in levels of competition.

*Conversely, there maybe some selection bias with players who over performed their final year in college returning to their longer term mean.

*There was a smaller subset that also had time on the court in the NBA, unsurprisingly there was a fall in production against the stiffer competition in the big leagues, though less than the gap from the NCAA to the D-League.

So are D-League players better than college players? Yes and No. The answer on both sides lies in their age, with D-League players being much closer to their peak than most college players. On the other hand their peak is lower than the one and done lottery picks.

In terms of P.J. Hairston, going through bigger, older more seasoned players in front of smaller crowds with a tougher travel schedule, he’s definitely taking the tougher road to the NBA draft. So far he’s one of the relatively few players who has produced more in his brief start in the D-League than he did last year in college. Thanks largely to his torrid shooting to date Hairston has a AWS of 12.7, which would be Durant-ian numbers, if sustained. Hairston’s other numbers, like rebounding, turnovers and personal fouls have seen the typical degradation jumping to the D-League from college, so the bump may not last. But if does he will certainly have earned his way.

[bwgood77]

Speaking of the D League, I really wish Grant Jerrett was still playing for AZ and not in the D League, now with Brandon Ashley likely out for the season. That suddenly leaves AZ with little frontcourt depth. Rondae-Hollis Jefferson should be able to fill in nicely with Gordon playing the 4, but the bench will be weaker. They will probably have to go with more 3 guard lineups at times now.

[MrMiyagi]

Matt Korcheck, Jordan Mayes and Elliot Pitts should start making their way into some more minutes. Can't win a National Championship with just 6 guys. I wouldn't mind seeing Zack Peters get some minutes, he always looks to have a good 3-point shot (something the Cats need) in warm-ups but rarely gets onto the court.

[Moochiefried]

I'd love it if we could nab Nik Stauskas with a mid to late first round pick. He strikes me as the type of player who gets underrated due to being white eg. Budinger, Parsons, Hayward. He has the potential to be one of the best 3 point shooters in the league, and I would go as far as saying that he's a great athlete as well. Sick passer also, has got great vision. I think that he has a high ceiling, but he's one of those guys that you can say at the very least will be a good role player/specialist in the league.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjCE4TXhgEU[/youtube]

[INFORMER-93]

I agree, Moochie. I was one of those that underrated Nik Stauskas. I didn't understand where the buzz was coming from. Now I do. Over the past several weeks, I've come to appreciate his skill level and ability. He is a very good prospect, and he is someone who I hope is on McDonough's radar.

[carey]

Speaking of the D League, I really wish Grant Jerrett was still playing for AZ and not in the D League, now with Brandon Ashley likely out for the season. That suddenly leaves AZ with little frontcourt depth. Rondae-Hollis Jefferson should be able to fill in nicely with Gordon playing the 4, but the bench will be weaker. They will probably have to go with more 3 guard lineups at times now.

Out for the season? What was the diagnosis? I haven't seen anything yet.

[bwgood77]

Speaking of the D League, I really wish Grant Jerrett was still playing for AZ and not in the D League, now with Brandon Ashley likely out for the season. That suddenly leaves AZ with little frontcourt depth. Rondae-Hollis Jefferson should be able to fill in nicely with Gordon playing the 4, but the bench will be weaker. They will probably have to go with more 3 guard lineups at times now.

Out for the season? What was the diagnosis? I haven't seen anything yet.

It's front page on espn, at least on the NCAA mens page.

[In2ition]

I agree, Moochie. I was one of those that underrated Nik Stauskas. I didn't understand where the buzz was coming from. Now I do. Over the past several weeks, I've come to appreciate his skill level and ability. He is a very good prospect, and he is someone who I hope is on McDonough's radar.

I am going to be self serving and give myself credit. I've been on the Stauskas bandwagon since before the season. Might end up being a better Klay Thompson.

[INFORMER-93]

I agree, Moochie. I was one of those that underrated Nik Stauskas. I didn't understand where the buzz was coming from. Now I do. Over the past several weeks, I've come to appreciate his skill level and ability. He is a very good prospect, and he is someone who I hope is on McDonough's radar.

I am going to be self serving and give myself credit. I've been on the Stauskas bandwagon since before the season. Might end up being a better Klay Thompson.

I don't know about the Klay Thompson part, In2.

I think he could possibly work well in the backcourt with Goodwin, where neither is a point guard, but together they could run an offense, with Stauskas doing most of the playmaking and Goodwin just driving and kicking.

[INFORMER-93]

There is talk that Ashley's injury will help Gordon's draft stock because now he'll be able to play more at the 4 spot. I see Gordon as a 4 as well.

[BurningHeart]

Seems like Stauskas has a bit of a killer instinct. I love players like that.

[bwgood77]

Pretty unimpressive night so far from all these "can't miss" draft prospects:


Randle: 12 pts, 5 rebounds on 33% shooting
Wiggins 14 pts on 30% shooting, though he did have 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks
Embiid 5 pts on 16% shooting, 7 rebounds, 1 block
Parker....playing now

[carey]

I'll be honest, outside of Parker, none of the freshman have impressed me.

I still want McDermott more than anyone else in this draft class outside of the top 3. He'd be awesome hitting shots all over the floor in this offense.

[INFORMER-93]

I'll be honest, outside of Parker, none of the freshman have impressed me.

[TOO]

Carey is crazy lol, Embiid has been very impressive as a freshman, as has Parker. Many others have shown big time flashes. Chris Walker FINALLY debuted tonight, pre-season I preferred him to than Gordon.

[INFORMER-93]

Chris Walker FINALLY debuted tonight, pre-season I preferred him to than Gordon.

Walker has Kenyon Martin lip tattoos on his neck; stay clear of him.