2020 Season/Offseason (FA/Trade) Speculation - the Season Resumes

[WeekapaugGroove]

It's ultimately Sarvers fault because he inexplicably kept McD employed that summer only to fire him AFTER the draft and FA. Still can't believe that ****. No matter how that pick was made the buck stops with sarver because it's his team.

Oh and it was far from a consensus that Ayton should go 1. I think plenty of teams would have taken Luka.

I'm happy to have been in the right side of history on that one but go Ayton I hope he turns out to be great.

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[WeekapaugGroove]

I remember when McD compared Luka to Joe Johnson. Then he said Ayton’s workout was the best workout he had ever seen.

Yeah he could barely contain himself after that workout, giddy like a teen who just touched his first boob.

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[DirtyDez]

The Suns were drafting Ayton from the beginning and gave the Luka head case story to Gambo. McD has always drafted on raw upside and I doubt he ever did a deep phycological dive on any of them.

[Fo-Real]

I remember when McD compared Luka to Joe Johnson. Then he said Ayton’s workout was the best workout he had ever seen.

The team still had a bad Euro taste in its mouth from that bang up Bender selection, so I see why we shied away.

[King4Day]

It's funny....it's pretty common knowledge that Sarver was enamored with Doncic but McD wanted Ayton....yet they keep trying to float "Sarver wanted a UA guy"

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

That's not how I remember it, most of the good moves tend to get spun in Sarver's favor and his mouth piece Gambo was bashing Doncic as soon as the Suns got the 1st pick.

Ultimately I don't think it really matters. Ayton was going to be the #1 pick for whoever got the top selection that year(Mavs being the only team I could be convinced otherwise on). Ayton has limitless physical potential that is too easy to get enamored with in private workouts.

For some reason, people forget that so many people were split on who to take at 1. Many experts said Ayton was the right pick.
The fact 2 other teams passed on him proves that correct as well.
We obviously made a mistake but it doesn't change that there were many just as high on DA.

[sunskerr]

Yeah McDonough is just a **** GM. Nobody to blame but himself. He loved Ayton and it was no secret he wasn’t even considering Doncic.

I remember our board was pretty split. In the media iirc Doncic was popular with the stats/nerdy/modern nba writers and Ayton got a lot of hype from the establishment talking head espn-types.

Luka was my #1 but I remember Ayton was a close #2. I remember thinking the entire time that it was a mistake to draft a center with less skills over the wing with lots of skills. In hindsight, even though Trae was my #3 I should have had him #2 because what he was doing was similar to Doncic with all the modern offensive skills. It should have been obvious that Trae was #2, so I’m disappointed in myself, even if that was pretty much the only year I followed top prospects.

But what’s done is done. I hope like hell Ayton pans out. I’ve said enough about Ayton the last few pages in good detail so if anyone wants to read that then they can.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Read on Twitter

Good breakdown of the suns money situation.

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[spanishninja]

I don't know. Would Booker-Simmons-Ayton be the best under 25 trio in the NBA? Maybe it's worth taking that money.

Wow Philly really screw things up. And of course they traded Bridges who they could really use right now.

Simmons has more strengths than Rubio (better defender, better scorer, bigger, better rebounder), but has weaknesses as well (worse FT shooter, doesn't shoot 3s at all, worse leader, possible injury history, more expensive). Not a clear enough improvement over Rubio even just on a 1-on-1 trade, and you want to take on a max contract in addition?

rubio looked good in the bubble...his 3 point shots were going in...he is a big reason why we went 8-0....simmons would never hit those shots

Credit to Rubio though. Boosted his 3FG% by 5% this year, not easy to do as a veteran. So if you think Rubio has a glaring weakness because of his shooting, why anybody would want Simmons (with even more extreme weaknesses in shooting) is beyond me.

[King4Day]

Those (including myself) feeling bad about picking Ayton, this should make you feel better:

Read on Twitter

If we had the #2 pick and took Bagley, I'm pretty sure I would have cried.
Yes, I wanted Ayton. I won't act like I was Luka all the way. But after Ayton, it was Luka all day, every day. 1-2 to me. Nobody else

[Revived]

Those (including myself) feeling bad about picking Ayton, this should make you feel better:

Read on Twitter

If we had the #2 pick and took Bagley, I'm pretty sure I would have cried.
Yes, I wanted Ayton. I won't act like I was Luka all the way. But after Ayton, it was Luka all day, every day. 1-2 to me. Nobody else

It should’ve been obvious to anyone that watched Ayton at Arizona to see his limitations. I think most people don’t watch any college games (understandably I didn’t either until going back to watch clips AFTER we won the lotto). There was clear obvious motor issues throughout the clip and most of his big plays happened when there was a guard on him. Being big, athletic and rebounding well were basically the main and maybe only pros for him. In terms of actual skillset, there was very little there at least to me.

He had like 2 or 3 big and-1 poster dunks in college while most other elite prospects have like a dozen or so.

I don’t need to mention it but obviously Doncic was the exact opposite of Ayton in that he was incredibly skilled but wasn’t an athletic freak. He showed enough craftiness to where it was obvious he could still get anywhere he wants on the basketball court at any time regardless of whether it was in Europe or the NBA.

I had Ayton 2nd because I didn’t think highly about the rest of the draft class. I dropped the ball with Trae Young who I never thought would be as good as he has become.

[Revived]

It's funny....it's pretty common knowledge that Sarver was enamored with Doncic but McD wanted Ayton....yet they keep trying to float "Sarver wanted a UA guy"

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

That's not how I remember it, most of the good moves tend to get spun in Sarver's favor and his mouth piece Gambo was bashing Doncic as soon as the Suns got the 1st pick.

Ultimately I don't think it really matters. Ayton was going to be the #1 pick for whoever got the top selection that year(Mavs being the only team I could be convinced otherwise on). Ayton has limitless physical potential that is too easy to get enamored with in private workouts.

For some reason, people forget that so many people were split on who to take at 1. Many experts said Ayton was the right pick.
The fact 2 other teams passed on him proves that correct as well.
We obviously made a mistake but it doesn't change that there were many just as high on DA.

The analytic guys loved Doncic. The highlight watchers loved Ayton.

The perfect way to put this would be Zach Lowe, Kevin O’Connor and those type people loved Doncic. But the Stephen A Smith and Charles Barkley and those types loved Ayton.

It was obvious that Ayton had the higher ceiling due to his athleticism and size. However as we have painfully learned with Jackson and Chriss, athleticism and size can only get one so far.

Thankfully, I don’t think Ayton will ever be a bust for us. I just hope he grows up and doesn’t play soft as he enters his 3rd season and starts to at least grasp what rim protection means.

[bwgood77]

Those (including myself) feeling bad about picking Ayton, this should make you feel better:

Read on Twitter

If we had the #2 pick and took Bagley, I'm pretty sure I would have cried.
Yes, I wanted Ayton. I won't act like I was Luka all the way. But after Ayton, it was Luka all day, every day. 1-2 to me. Nobody else

Yeah, I remember kind of hoping we got #2, and then I thought about it more, and thought "He would have definitely taken Bagley #2" which would have been awful. I mentioned that here at the time.

[phx#7]

Those (including myself) feeling bad about picking Ayton, this should make you feel better:

Read on Twitter

If we had the #2 pick and took Bagley, I'm pretty sure I would have cried.
Yes, I wanted Ayton. I won't act like I was Luka all the way. But after Ayton, it was Luka all day, every day. 1-2 to me. Nobody else

First time seeing this. That would have been devastating, wasn't in my top 5 and I thought there was a pretty big drop off after that. Trae was my favorite prospect that year but and Doncic grew on me the more I saw of him. His Hardenesque step-back and bigger Steve Nash comparisons made him super appealing. I liked Ayton too(still do) because his potential is so high and even if he doesn't reach it he'll still be productive, whereas I still had questions about Doncic's athletic ability being able to translate which made him feel like a bigger bust potential.

Ultimately it's hard to look back and be objective about how I felt after the Suns got the top pick because I knew it was going to be Ayton and was trying to be optimistic about his best possible outcome. Trae was definitely my favorite during the college season that year though.

The thing that strikes me as odd and lends credence to McDonough's claim of the front office being "tumultuous" was the fact we hired Luka's coach. It feels like the person responsible for the coaching decision and the person responsible for the draft were at odds with each other and doesn't at all seem like we were following any specific vision. And it's not like that's anything new, it's been a repeated cycle of dysfunction between front office and coaching decisions since Sarver bought the team(McD/Hornacek, Gentry/Blanks, Kerr/DA). Honestly it feels like the last time there was a shared organizational vision being executed was with BC and DA.

[bwgood77]

Read on Twitter

Good breakdown of the suns money situation.

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Pretty much what we've been talking about here, but nicely laid out the facts. So basically assuming we keep Saric and Carter, keeping Baynes only costs us about a million of spending money on free agents, providing Sarver is willing to spend it.

So there really isn't any reason not to keep Baynes unless we wants a long term contract.

I imagine these free agents may not mind doing one year deals and might prefer it, given the fact there are a lot more teams with cap space next summer. However, I guess with Baynes, given his age, he may want the security if someone offers him 3 years, and I guess with all these guys, they are unlikely to get much more than the MLE per year even if they wait a year anyway. I guess maybe Saric could if he shot lights out or something.

[Blonde]

McDonough is a fraud. Pay him no mind.

[D1SGRUNTL3D]

So #1 and the rights to Jake Layman for Booker?

I'd want Layman's lefts as well as his rights.

Haha. If I could like this on Tapatalk I would

[lilfishi22]

It's funny....it's pretty common knowledge that Sarver was enamored with Doncic but McD wanted Ayton....yet they keep trying to float "Sarver wanted a UA guy"

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Was that established? I thought it was the other way around. Also thought with Igor's hiring, it was more reason to draft Luka

Confused now

[bwgood77]

Was that established? I thought it was the other way around. Also thought with Igor's hiring, it was more reason to draft Luka

Confused now

Yes, I believe it was Ryan Russillo reported it. It was talked about a bit but it was flooded with people and assumption of "Sarver went to UofA, intervenes, etc."

It's dumb because Sarver wouldn't want a prospect just because he went to college at UofA. That's pretty ridiculous if you think about it. Plus, being a UofA fan, if he watched Ayton a lot, I'm sure he had his doubts. You can bet his all time favorite Sun, particularly since he owned the team, has been Nash, and he traveled to watch Doncic (twice I believe) and it was rumored he was enamored with Doncic....a fancy passer, shooter, etc.

I honestly personally believe he hasn't intervened all that much with picks since McD took over, especially by that point, and the fact that he got so much crap for intervening probably caused him not to push for Doncic, because it looked a bit like Ayton was at least a safe pick that people wouldn't condemn.

I do, however, think he probably had some input on hiring Igor, perhaps in part because he has been (up until Monty) fairly frugal with coaching hires and also because he was enamored with Doncic. If McD did have Doncic at 3 (I thought he might even have Bamba ahead of him, and possibly JJJ), that he was ok with hire and probably expected to drop (I think despite having the worst record odds still favored at least one, maybe two teams jumping us, landing us at 2 or 3).

Remember McD always said, even before the lottery, and before the draft, that they would target a big man. And he was very smug with the Ayton pick and after that workout. Seemed pretty obvious. He was also very cocky and confident about that Josh Jackson plane story and expressed "We think we got the best player in the draft" after taking Jackson.

It was even rumored right before that draft that between Watson, McD and Sarver, they all liked different guys. McD liked Jackson, and Watson/Sarver liked Isaac/Fox...I think that came from Gambo though...a weird thing to report and make up if it isn't true. Actually who liked who kind of makes sense though if you think about it.

[Ghost of Kleine]

It's funny....it's pretty common knowledge that Sarver was enamored with Doncic but McD wanted Ayton....yet they keep trying to float "Sarver wanted a UA guy"

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Was that established? I thought it was the other way around. Also thought with Igor's hiring, it was more reason to draft Luka

Confused now

Was that established? I thought it was the other way around. Also thought with Igor's hiring, it was more reason to draft Luka

I actually posted some content a few weeks back from Arizona sports 98.7 relative to this discussion. But the article's statements indicated that Kokoskov was in fact McDs' guy! And there was alot of friction between him and Sarver/ Jones interfering and deciding to fire Kokoskov, When McD had plans to utilize him for player development, And many other reported times wherein Sarver would exercise his executive authority to influence/ override personell decisions. But I also believe that it was part of McDs' plan to hire Kokoskov, with intent to utilize his familiarity and connection to Doncic in Euroleague. But Sarver interceded, And made the call on Ayton dur to Arizona Alumni and booster endorsing him. More or less, Sarver catering to fellow Alumni interests. And obviously the pattern of him having control issues and micromanaging his personnel decisions were well known by many throughout the league.

Anyways, it really doesn't matter much now, As what's done is done! And revisionist speculation really doesn't do us any favors currently. We just have to hope that Ayton grows a pair! Becomes aggressive, and figures out that he can actually dominate, IF he actually puts in the effort and tenacity.

[AtheJ415]

Just need to correct some things. I'm not calling you out personally or anything, and I'm not denying Ayton can become a great player for us. But for the sake of discussion it's probably best to correct some things here.

If we're moving away from Ayton why would we grab the player whose upside is most similar? more injury prone version of Ayton's upside.

They are very different players. Embiid has 45% of his 2PA assisted, Ayton has 75%. Embiid has also been knocking down a shave over 1.0 3PG since his rookie year. Embiid's FG% is 48% and Ayton's is 57%. So again, there is a massive difference in the way they play basketball.

and is ahead of Embiid at the same stage.

Embiid was injured at the same age. In Embiids rookie season he averaged 20/8 and 2.5 bpg. Ayton's rookie season was 16/10 and 1 bpg. Embiid also averaged 7.9 FTA in his rookie year whilst Ayton averaged 2.7 FTA. We'll see how it shakes out next year when Ayton is the same age as Embiid was in his rookie season. But it looks like Embiid at the least was definitely superior rim protector and was a much more skilled offensive player.

Ayton, who is already an above average starting center

He is closer to average. He gets his points off spoon feeds on offense, and plays good defense. I posted this earlier but what we see in game is backed pretty closely by 538's RAPTOR ratings (sort by centers) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/ Defensively speaking he is probably above average (+3.0 def RAPTOR), but his offense drags him down(-1.2 off RAPTOR. Overall raptor has him around 20th.

we have now started seeing him shoot a bunch of 3s?

He is not shooting "a bunch of 3s" now. He shot 1.4 3PA in the bubble.

Again, the good news is that he defends pretty damn well. It's just the offense that holds him back. It seems like he'd have to transform himself pretty remarkably as a player however as the numbers tell a story that he's a vastly different player than Embiid, or other offensive centers. For reference to another star center, Jokic has about 50% of his 2PA assisted, which is about in the same range as Joel Embiid.

I think it's fair to say right now he is a much more similar style of player to Rudy Gobert or Clint Capela than Embiid.

What we want is for Ayton's FG% to go down (I mean, ideally he always shoots 57% but that's probably impossible), which should suggest he's expanding his game by creating more of his own offense and taking more 3s, and getting to the line more. Like you said, improving his handle will allow him to do these things, but right now he doesn't have that handle and it shows in his stats.

I actually don't think Embiids offense is particularly impressive. I think he tries to force shots too much inside on bad post ups and fadeaways, where he would be better served making a play for a teammate or passing back out.

I'm talking about Ayton's projectible upside, not where he is today. Embiid is a very different player than Ayton TODAY, but Embiid is a very different player than he was at Kansas or at this stage also. Embiid at Kansas never was utilized in the way he was at Philly, but at the same time as Ayton currently is at, Embiid was injured. He has grown into how he plays today. Ayton has shown improvement as a defender at a rapid rate and is improving as a 3 point shooter. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume he becomes similar to Embiid. But our team leads the NBA in assists, so I don't think looking at it in terms of assisted field goals v. not is the best way to do it. That's more a function of how Philly chooses to use Embiid and how we choose to use Ayton than anything to say about their skillsets or athletic similarities.

Also we are now seeing Ayton shoot a bunch of 3s. In practice, in the bubble, etc., it's undeniable that he's practicing them a lot and that it is paying off.

Nobody ever wants to see a player's FG% go down. You want his efg% to go up, meaning more 3s and FTs. There is no reason to see Ayton's upside as somehow less than Embiid or as most similar to Clint Capela, who can do absolutely 0 on the offensive end other than dunk. Capela is Tyson Chandler. Gobert fine to compare at this stage, but Ayton's already shown more of a jumper than Gobert with just the 3s he's made at this stage. His upside in my opinion, is most similar to Embiid. Whether he ever develpos that mindset is anybody's guess, but skillwise he's ahead of Capela and Gobert already. Gobert is super impactful on offense but it has 0 to do with skill level and everything to do with freakish length that nobody has and intelligent screening and rolling. He is more unique than Embiid imo.