2020 Season/Offseason (FA/Trade) Speculation - the Season Resumes

[AtheJ415]

I don't think this is the year to go wild in FA. I am very curious if Philly blows it up though. They may pick Embiid over Simmons, in which case having a guy like Grant or Galinari might be a useful trade chip at the deadline. Either way, the FA class next year is obviously way better, and I think we can make enough upgrades to get to the playoffs next year and be attractive to FAs. Giannis, Beal, etc. are all way better fits for us, but with how good Van Vleet is now I wouldn't mind going for him. His IQ is off the charts and he's shooting lights out.

[Revived]

Just need to correct some things. I'm not calling you out personally or anything, and I'm not denying Ayton can become a great player for us. But for the sake of discussion it's probably best to correct some things here.

If we're moving away from Ayton why would we grab the player whose upside is most similar? more injury prone version of Ayton's upside.

They are very different players. Embiid has 45% of his 2PA assisted, Ayton has 75%. Embiid has also been knocking down a shave over 1.0 3PG since his rookie year. Embiid's FG% is 48% and Ayton's is 57%. So again, there is a massive difference in the way they play basketball.

and is ahead of Embiid at the same stage.

Embiid was injured at the same age. In Embiids rookie season he averaged 20/8 and 2.5 bpg. Ayton's rookie season was 16/10 and 1 bpg. Embiid also averaged 7.9 FTA in his rookie year whilst Ayton averaged 2.7 FTA. We'll see how it shakes out next year when Ayton is the same age as Embiid was in his rookie season. But it looks like Embiid at the least was definitely superior rim protector and was a much more skilled offensive player.

Ayton, who is already an above average starting center

He is closer to average. He gets his points off spoon feeds on offense, and plays good defense. I posted this earlier but what we see in game is backed pretty closely by 538's RAPTOR ratings (sort by centers) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/ Defensively speaking he is probably above average (+3.0 def RAPTOR), but his offense drags him down(-1.2 off RAPTOR. Overall raptor has him around 20th.

we have now started seeing him shoot a bunch of 3s?

He is not shooting "a bunch of 3s" now. He shot 1.4 3PA in the bubble.

Again, the good news is that he defends pretty damn well. It's just the offense that holds him back. It seems like he'd have to transform himself pretty remarkably as a player however as the numbers tell a story that he's a vastly different player than Embiid, or other offensive centers. For reference to another star center, Jokic has about 50% of his 2PA assisted, which is about in the same range as Joel Embiid.

I think it's fair to say right now he is a much more similar style of player to Rudy Gobert or Clint Capela than Embiid.

What we want is for Ayton's FG% to go down (I mean, ideally he always shoots 57% but that's probably impossible), which should suggest he's expanding his game by creating more of his own offense and taking more 3s, and getting to the line more. Like you said, improving his handle will allow him to do these things, but right now he doesn't have that handle and it shows in his stats.

I actually don't think Embiids offense is particularly impressive. I think he tries to force shots too much inside on bad post ups and fadeaways, where he would be better served making a play for a teammate or passing back out.

I'm talking about Ayton's projectible upside, not where he is today. Embiid is a very different player than Ayton TODAY, but Embiid is a very different player than he was at Kansas or at this stage also. Embiid at Kansas never was utilized in the way he was at Philly, but at the same time as Ayton currently is at, Embiid was injured. He has grown into how he plays today. Ayton has shown improvement as a defender at a rapid rate and is improving as a 3 point shooter. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume he becomes similar to Embiid. But our team leads the NBA in assists, so I don't think looking at it in terms of assisted field goals v. not is the best way to do it. That's more a function of how Philly chooses to use Embiid and how we choose to use Ayton than anything to say about their skillsets or athletic similarities.

Also we are now seeing Ayton shoot a bunch of 3s. In practice, in the bubble, etc., it's undeniable that he's practicing them a lot and that it is paying off.

Nobody ever wants to see a player's FG% go down. You want his efg% to go up, meaning more 3s and FTs. There is no reason to see Ayton's upside as somehow less than Embiid or as most similar to Clint Capela, who can do absolutely 0 on the offensive end other than dunk. Capela is Tyson Chandler. Gobert fine to compare at this stage, but Ayton's already shown more of a jumper than Gobert with just the 3s he's made at this stage. His upside in my opinion, is most similar to Embiid. Whether he ever develpos that mindset is anybody's guess, but skillwise he's ahead of Capela and Gobert already. Gobert is super impactful on offense but it has 0 to do with skill level and everything to do with freakish length that nobody has and intelligent screening and rolling. He is more unique than Embiid imo.

In order for Ayton to ever be like a Embiid, he will have to do two things. One is become a rim protector and two is get to the FT line. Both of them require having the balls and physicality to battle in the paint.

Compare Ayton’s 2nd yr FT attempts to Embiid’s and Towns’ in their 2nd years. It’s absolutely ugly.

I remember reading a post from someone a long time ago on this forum that said the difference between becoming a star player and a good player Is the ability to get to the FT line. At the time, Corey Maggette was like the only player that was a scrub who still managed to get to the FT line a lot, everyone else was highly regarded star or borderline star players.

Devin Booker became a star player once he figured out how to get to the FT line. He should still be getting there a lot more if he got the benefit of the call but he’s still among the top 10 in the NBA at getting to the FT line. A big reason why I think Trae Young will become a star in the future is because he has figured this out already too.

Ayton’s physical combination with his athleticism should mean that he should be a FT magnet that should absolutely live at the line. He’s a mismatch almost everytime he gets the ball and instead of looking to pass it back as he always does, he should focus on attacking to draw the contact. Defensively, he watches as players come to the rim instead of leaving his defender to help. He comes in at the last second usually hoping to grab the rebound to perhaps pad those stats. The problem is that in the NBA, players are skilled enough to usually not miss wide open layups so Ayton needs to contest it. He shows small glimpses of this here and there but nothing consistent.

If he was smart, he would spend his entire offseason watching tape on how Embiid plays rim protection wise and how he gets to the FT line.

[starbosa10]

Not trading Mikal anywhere. I think it makes a huge difference having players who want to be here

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?s=19

[cberry78]

Not trading Mikal anywhere. I think it makes a huge difference having players who want to be here

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Cam Payne too.

Read on Twitter

[suns12345]

This Doncic - Ayton chat is tiresome.

Yes Doncic is the better player now (and likely forever). Yes lots of people on here and lots of pundits thought he should be #1.

But can people stop acting like it was so obvious that choosing anyone else is evidence of insanity. The draft is a crapshoot, ayton, bagley, JJJ, trae etc. could easily have been the better pick. Who knows, maybe in another universe Giannis is sitting at #15 and Doncic isn't the best pick anyway.

We have Ayton, he has made big strides, he still has flaws that he had in college. lets see how he progresses.

[NotACat]

Magic fan here, would you all trade 10 for AG straight up?

[Walt_Uoob]

Magic fan here, would you all trade 10 for AG straight up?

I think most here would. I think we would have to renounce free agents Saric and Baynes at least to clear the space to absorb AG though, which would sting and make some think twice about it. Personally I'd lean yes.

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[Walt_Uoob]

Magic fan here, would you all trade 10 for AG straight up?

I think most here would. I think we would have to renounce free agents Saric and Baynes at least to clear the space to absorb AG though, which would sting and make some think twice about it. Personally I'd lean yes.

Although...that worsens our 3/4 logjam a bit because Gordon would demand more minutes than Saric does, so that could be the nail in the coffin on keeping Oubre. So if we're effectively losing the #10, Saric, Baynes, and Oubre (after next season), that's a lot harder to swallow, but maybe still worth it since we technically could still re-sign Oubre after next year or trade him/someone in the meantime.

So straight-up trade value I'd say yes, but thinking through the ramifications gives me some pause.

[King4Day]

This is an article about what the Warriors should do with their pick. I'd never do this but it is kinda cool to see Bridges value jump like this.

The verdict: The Warriors might not find a trade that works

Because trades aren't made in a vacuum, when the question is posed of whether a team should trade something, the response should always be "for what?" I don't see the veteran player who justifies giving up the upside of the No. 2 pick.

One possibility worth exploring is trading the pick for a player currently on his rookie contract, in which case Golden State would be sacrificing future years of cost control and upside in favor of someone more capable of helping the team's stars win while they're still in their late primes. Such a move might also save the team some money next season.

For example, I'd probably be willing to trade the pick for either of a pair of 23-year-old forwards: Anunoby, in his third year with Toronto, or Mikal Bridges, in his second year with the Phoenix Suns. Either Anunoby or Bridges could fill Barnes' old role at both forward spots and actually make far less than Golden State's pick because they were drafted later in the first round (Bridges No. 10, Anunoby No. 23). But I'm not sure either of those teams would be interested in taking a step backwards by dealing a key piece for a draft pick.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29695733/should-golden-state-warriors-trade-their-lottery-pick

[jsierra1985]

why is everyone talking about minny's first pick for booker....are the suns that stupid to even discuss? and if they did the suns are idiots...all it takes is for booker to feel like the suns dont want him and being close with kat/dlo...he can ask for a trade.....suns should of signed dlo from the beginning smfh

[nevetsov]

It'll get worse before it gets better unfortunately. Once Russell ended up in Minnesota there has been constant dialogue from their end about Book heading there because they got two friends together, they obviously need to complete the set!

Book wants to win more than anything and we were one missed Caris LeVert shot away from making the playoffs. Meanwhile, Minny is wading in the bottom of the western waters (GSW were only below them because of the injuries). Book is too alpha to give up on such a promising environment here to want to bail for a less appealing situation.

Is he still sad about his bestie Ulis being cut? I doubt he even remembers him being on this team.

The first won't catapult Minny out of the doldrums this year, and it won't help our chance of playoffs if we have to rattle the cage too much to land it. We're on the cusp of the playoffs, there's no way we break up our main asset into smaller assets. It's a pipe dream for Minny.

Given the trajectories of each team, there's probably a higher likelihood that Russell and Towns come to PHX, than Book going to MIN. Ayton, Oubre, Rubio, #10 and change for Towns and Russell is the type of package a bottomed out team like them should be targeting over a third max contract like Booker.

Rubio, Ball (#1)
Culver, Beasley
Oubre, Okogie
Toppin (#10), Johnson
Ayton, Hernangomez

For PHX:

Russell, Payne
Booker, TBA
Bridges, TBA
Johnson, Saric
Towns, Baynes

I actually like it more for Minny than I do for PHX.

[Barkley6]

Those (including myself) feeling bad about picking Ayton, this should make you feel better:

Read on Twitter

If we had the #2 pick and took Bagley, I'm pretty sure I would have cried.
Yes, I wanted Ayton. I won't act like I was Luka all the way. But after Ayton, it was Luka all day, every day. 1-2 to me. Nobody else

I think what's often forgotten is that during the draft, a lot of people were unsure of exactly what Luka's best position was. He's built like a 3 but plays more like a 1. While some teams saw that as an advantage, and prized the versatility, Phoenix already had a player (Book) who drifts between the wing and the 1 throughout the game.

I remember a lot of talk on this board about concerns with moving either Doncic or Booker off the ball too frequently, and a lot of people felt that their skillsets were a little too similar.

I completely understand the logic of taking Ayton at 1. Yes, Doncic has proven to be the better player so far, and hindsight is always 20/20. But it isnt like this is Darko Milicic being selected ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade. Ayton is very talented and is continuing to improve. Ayton has all the tools and all the indications he's going to be a 20/12 player and will probably make a handful of All-Star teams. Is he a HOFer? probably not. But he'll definitely be a top tier player in today's NBA.

The draft is always hard to get right. But If we're going to bash McD, lets focus on Josh Jackson over De'Aaron Fox and Bender/Chriss over well, almost anyone else in that draft.

[starbosa10]

Magic fan here, would you all trade 10 for AG straight up?

I think most here would. I think we would have to renounce free agents Saric and Baynes at least to clear the space to absorb AG though, which would sting and make some think twice about it. Personally I'd lean yes.

Although...that worsens our 3/4 logjam a bit because Gordon would demand more minutes than Saric does, so that could be the nail in the coffin on keeping Oubre. So if we're effectively losing the #10, Saric, Baynes, and Oubre (after next season), that's a lot harder to swallow, but maybe still worth it since we technically could still re-sign Oubre after next year or trade him/someone in the meantime.

So straight-up trade value I'd say yes, but thinking through the ramifications gives me some pause.

As you said in a vacuum 10 for AG is a decent deal but given it would basically require losing the 10, Saric, baynes, and lead to dealing oubre I wouldnt do it unless we had an amazing deal for oubre already lined up

[King4Day]

why is everyone talking about minny's first pick for booker....are the suns that stupid to even discuss? and if they did the suns are idiots...all it takes is for booker to feel like the suns dont want him and being close with kat/dlo...he can ask for a trade.....suns should of signed dlo from the beginning smfh

It's more coming from the Minny side. They have 2 of the 3 BFF's.
I don't think you'll find any Suns fan or front office rep who would seriously consider that type deal (at least not without KAT coming back). Even then, I think mgmt would pause.

[Ghost of Kleine]

I don't think this is the year to go wild in FA. I am very curious if Philly blows it up though. They may pick Embiid over Simmons, in which case having a guy like Grant or Galinari might be a useful trade chip at the deadline. Either way, the FA class next year is obviously way better, and I think we can make enough upgrades to get to the playoffs next year and be attractive to FAs. Giannis, Beal, etc. are all way better fits for us, but with how good Van Vleet is now I wouldn't mind going for him. His IQ is off the charts and he's shooting lights out.

Definitely spot on about Riller man! I was looking over numerous draft profiles on him again, And found that he possesses pretty much every attribute that Jones specified. Very quick with the ball in his hands ( knows exactly when to score and when to pass instead), very efficient, very versatile at getting to the rim, hitting shots at all three levels, breaking down the defense, and he also has a really high basketball IQ. Aside from that, He really just has that indescribable " it " star factor. Just something about him, gives you that feeling that he'll really be a dominant impactful player.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Read on Twitter

Good breakdown of the suns money situation.

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Pretty much what we've been talking about here, but nicely laid out the facts. So basically assuming we keep Saric and Carter, keeping Baynes only costs us about a million of spending money on free agents, providing Sarver is willing to spend it.

So there really isn't any reason not to keep Baynes unless we wants a long term contract.

I imagine these free agents may not mind doing one year deals and might prefer it, given the fact there are a lot more teams with cap space next summer. However, I guess with Baynes, given his age, he may want the security if someone offers him 3 years, and I guess with all these guys, they are unlikely to get much more than the MLE per year even if they wait a year anyway. I guess maybe Saric could if he shot lights out or something.

We just don't know what Baynes will ultimately value in his decision this fall. He might ring chase and have no interest in coming back or since he hasn't made a ton of money in his career he might simply go to the highest bidder with the most overall money. I'm interested in bringing him back but obviously there's a breaking point and I wouldn't want to go more than 1 maybe 2 years.

One thing I'm curious of is if Baynes agrees to a deal with another team right away does that automatically drop the suns to an under the cap team and they can't use the MLE. Or maybe a better question is can the suns actually use the MLE while Saric and Baynes are just cap holds or do they need actual contract with them before they can technically sign someone to the MLE?

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[thamadkant]

Sidery still dwelling in the past. Crying over what can't be changed is futile and waste of energy.

Ayton is a two way player cornerstone.

Soms fans should stop expecting him to be an aggressive and passionate personality like Embiid or Cousins or whomever.
He's quiet and has a passive demeanor that is his personality. Plenty of great players have that personality.

And to those who keep complaining he still doesn't get to the free throw line much... Yeah we get it. It's a weakness. But putting up 20/12 on limited or below average free throw attempt is a good sign... And it means it can only improve.

Now... Let's talk about how the Suns system and players still ignore using Ayton as an early shot clock entry point during offense? For the millionth time... He is still being used like a premium version of Capela... Again 20/12 as a finisher is a good sign and can only get better.

You guys need to watch Towns and Embiid more.... Both falling love with perimeter shots is actually a bad thing for their teams success more apparent with Towns... Godly numbers but bottom rung impact. He needs to let his team mates shine outside and he needs to dominate inside so his team has a balance system.

Suns becoming a well rounded team may actually just required Ayton to be 97% play like a traditional big man and dominate inside rather than shoot perimeter shots... Letting Booker and other wings take the role of perimeter scoring... Again... If it leads to team success then it's a no brainer.

Ayton is still a kid just look at how he behaves... You have to let him mature up and develop his hunger for wins and competitiveness as he gets older... Just like Booker did. It takes a few seasons to get that hunger.


Regarding Pick 10... Suns should trade for a proven rotation player.

And about Warriors shopping pick 2... Tell you what... This draft is very weak... At least based on the scouting I've read. So much so that if they ring and offer pick 2 for both Bridges and Johnson... I would hang up.... There isn't a surefire stud in the top 3 that the Suns should chase and trade key players for.

[Ghost of Kleine]

This Doncic - Ayton chat is tiresome.

Yes Doncic is the better player now (and likely forever). Yes lots of people on here and lots of pundits thought he should be #1.

But can people stop acting like it was so obvious that choosing anyone else is evidence of insanity. The draft is a crapshoot, ayton, bagley, JJJ, trae etc. could easily have been the better pick. Who knows, maybe in another universe Giannis is sitting at #15 and Doncic isn't the best pick anyway.

We have Ayton, he has made big strides, he still has flaws that he had in college. lets see how he progresses.

Thank you!

[Saberestar]

This is an article about what the Warriors should do with their pick. I'd never do this but it is kinda cool to see Bridges value jump like this.

The verdict: The Warriors might not find a trade that works

Because trades aren't made in a vacuum, when the question is posed of whether a team should trade something, the response should always be "for what?" I don't see the veteran player who justifies giving up the upside of the No. 2 pick.

One possibility worth exploring is trading the pick for a player currently on his rookie contract, in which case Golden State would be sacrificing future years of cost control and upside in favor of someone more capable of helping the team's stars win while they're still in their late primes. Such a move might also save the team some money next season.

For example, I'd probably be willing to trade the pick for either of a pair of 23-year-old forwards: Anunoby, in his third year with Toronto, or Mikal Bridges, in his second year with the Phoenix Suns. Either Anunoby or Bridges could fill Barnes' old role at both forward spots and actually make far less than Golden State's pick because they were drafted later in the first round (Bridges No. 10, Anunoby No. 23). But I'm not sure either of those teams would be interested in taking a step backwards by dealing a key piece for a draft pick.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29695733/should-golden-state-warriors-trade-their-lottery-pick

I wouldn't trade Bridges for the #1 pick in this draft.

There is no much difference between to pick #1 or #10 in next year's draft.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Magic fan here, would you all trade 10 for AG straight up?

Probably not, given our current cap situation. And I really, really like Gordon. But keeping Oubre AND adding Gordon would likely be very tricky to make work. Also, With Cam and Bridges taking that next step in their progression, Having both Oubre AND Cam being relegated to a bench role so Gordon could start would be counterproductive to Cams' progress, And too expensive to be having Oubre come off the bench.

I would however do EITHER an Oubre for Gordon straight swap, OR Oubre for the 15th pick? Would either of those be intriguing for you?