2016 Draft Thread Part 4

[DRK]

Spent tonight watching film of Zhou Qi.

I really like this kid's game. Hes very skilled for someone his size, and surprisingly co-ordinated and agile. Plays with alot of heart as well. I think many people look at him and think hes some Chinese stiff who cant move, but I personally think he has the agility and lateral quickness to be decent in pick and roll coverage on defence, which is one of the most important attributes for big men nowadays... Having a 7'8 wingspan also helps in closing out on shooters.

In the post on defence he will most definately be bullied. No doubt about it. But the modern NBA lacks back-to-basket bigs that will back Qi down, so it really isnt too important. The modern NBA big man is required to guard guards, and to protect the rim when rotating over for help. With Qi's 7'8 wingspan and good athleticism (32"max vert), he has the potential to be a very good help defender from the get go.

Hes a good jumpshooter for someone his size and has NBA range, although his release is very slow which may be a problem.
What impressed me the most is Qi's ability to put the ball on the floor. The guy can dribble, and change directions. He attacks the closeouts really well for 7'1 giant, and can take it all the way to the rim. He has some plays where hes taken it coast to coast himself too. I really dont see why he cant play the 4 in the NBA.

Ive grown really high on this kid so far. Hes not a finished product, by any means... But I dont think hes a "2 years away from being 2 years away." I see alot of Porzingis in his game. One thing going for him too is it seems he is an extremely high character guy - hard worker. Having him on the roster, banging against Tyson Chandler every day will do wonders for this kid's development. From my perspective, I think alot of his issues can be fixed through good mentoring and coaching. Things like positioning for rebounds or rotating on Defence can be taught through lots of film and time on the practise court with decent coaches. I feel like the guy lacks alot of BBIQ purely because the CBA really doesnt emphasize defence all too much. With Qi spending at least a season watching the majority of the game from the bench, and applying what he learns to the practise court, I think alot of his issues can be corrected.

Would most definitely be happy with us using the 28th pick on him, however I would not be surprised at all if he goes Late teens or early 20's come draft day.

[saintEscaton]

Still hoping for a star trade or Okafor!!

What do you think that Okafor brings to the table over Len? Okafor isnt a power forward as he doesnt have the range to open the lane, doesnt rebound well and has some very serious character issues. I wonder if he would even come close to scoring as well as he did if it wasnt for him being on the 76er with no talent.

To me a star trade means that we are going back to being late lottery or out in the first round of the playoff and that is the worst case to me.

Just wow. Jah's efficient high volume scoring on a tanking team makes him look worse? This is the same dumb reasoning posters here were using to argue that Noel was an empty "stat stuffer" despite anchoring Philly's defense to respectable middle of the pack as a rookie. Jahwas the #1 option and commanded double teams from the get go, and no one made excuses for him, he did He was getting held back by DLeague guards(Canaan/Stauskas), acquiring the journeyman Ish did wonders for him. In the month of January he was showing flashes of a faceup game and posted a true shooting percentage of 60%

[King4Day]

Phoenix Suns

No. 4: Juan Hernangomez, PF, Estudiantes
No. 13: Jaylen Brown, SF, California
No. 28: Ivica Zubac, C, Mega Vizura
No. 34: Caris LeVert, SG, Michigan

So far, the draft has played out more or less as it actually might. Things go off the rails here.

Again, I'm not saying there's any chance the Suns would actually draft Hernangomez fourth. If Bender is off the board, Marquese Chriss would probably be the pick.

But I tend to prefer Hernangomez as a prospect because while he's not nearly the athlete Chriss is, he has a more proven track record as a shooter and is a substantially better defender. Because Phoenix has little need for the guards ahead of Hernangomez on my board (but in the same tier), I'd take him fourth.

By contrast, Brown is a lot more likely to go before the fourth pick than still be on the board at pick 13. My stats-only projection for Brown is one of the worst for any player in Ford's Top 100 because he scored so inefficiently.

Brown is actually projected to rate below replacement level over the course of his rookie contract. The track record for freshmen projected for negative wins above replacement player (WARP) is poor -- Festus Ezeli and Meyers Leonard are probably the best players in this group. Other one-and-done lottery picks with negative WARP projections include Shabazz Muhammad and Austin Rivers.

That all noted, I'm swayed by the fact that Cal played two non-spacing big men alongside Brown, giving him little room to operate. Brown actually projected well in Layne Vashro's model based on his pre-college All-Star appearances (an admittedly tiny sample), and analyst Nate Duncan has called him a top-three prospect.

At some point, well after Brown will actually go, that potential is impossible to ignore. I like Brown better in an up-tempo system, where he can ideally play as a small-ball 4 rather than a non-spacing 3.

With their third pick of the first round, the Suns will probably look to stash an international prospect, and Zubac has shown some potential in small samples. Given how injuries have limited LeVert's potential, I love the idea of Phoenix setting him up with the team's renowned medical staff.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16390580/kevin-pelton-grade-nba-mock-draft-best-picks-los-angeles-lakers-boston-celtics-more

Whaaaaaat??? How does Juan move from later lottery to #4 like that? I'm pretty sure he'll still be there at 13 unless I've missed something.

[darealjuice]

Spoiler:

Phoenix Suns

No. 4: Juan Hernangomez, PF, Estudiantes
No. 13: Jaylen Brown, SF, California
No. 28: Ivica Zubac, C, Mega Vizura
No. 34: Caris LeVert, SG, Michigan

So far, the draft has played out more or less as it actually might. Things go off the rails here.

Again, I'm not saying there's any chance the Suns would actually draft Hernangomez fourth. If Bender is off the board, Marquese Chriss would probably be the pick.

But I tend to prefer Hernangomez as a prospect because while he's not nearly the athlete Chriss is, he has a more proven track record as a shooter and is a substantially better defender. Because Phoenix has little need for the guards ahead of Hernangomez on my board (but in the same tier), I'd take him fourth.

By contrast, Brown is a lot more likely to go before the fourth pick than still be on the board at pick 13. My stats-only projection for Brown is one of the worst for any player in Ford's Top 100 because he scored so inefficiently.

Brown is actually projected to rate below replacement level over the course of his rookie contract. The track record for freshmen projected for negative wins above replacement player (WARP) is poor -- Festus Ezeli and Meyers Leonard are probably the best players in this group. Other one-and-done lottery picks with negative WARP projections include Shabazz Muhammad and Austin Rivers.

That all noted, I'm swayed by the fact that Cal played two non-spacing big men alongside Brown, giving him little room to operate. Brown actually projected well in Layne Vashro's model based on his pre-college All-Star appearances (an admittedly tiny sample), and analyst Nate Duncan has called him a top-three prospect.

At some point, well after Brown will actually go, that potential is impossible to ignore. I like Brown better in an up-tempo system, where he can ideally play as a small-ball 4 rather than a non-spacing 3.

With their third pick of the first round, the Suns will probably look to stash an international prospect, and Zubac has shown some potential in small samples. Given how injuries have limited LeVert's potential, I love the idea of Phoenix setting him up with the team's renowned medical staff.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16390580/kevin-pelton-grade-nba-mock-draft-best-picks-los-angeles-lakers-boston-celtics-more

Whaaaaaat??? How does Juan move from later lottery to #4 like that? I'm pretty sure he'll still be there at 13 unless I've missed something.

Pelton bases his rankings off of his WARP analytics, if I remember correctly.

[DRK]

That's just bizarre.

[darealjuice]

Latest DraftExpress Mock is out, not sure if anyone posted

4th Pick: Marquese Chriss
13th Pick: Domantas Sabonis
28th Pick: Ante Zizic
34th Pick: Zhou Qi

All bigs, I seriously doubt it turns out like this.

[Jarlaxle0204]

Spent tonight watching film of Zhou Qi.

I wouldn't hate the pick at 28 or 34 but I do have some concerns. Most notably how old he actually is. Yi Jianlin was definitely older than what he said he was and I have some concerns over that with Zhou Qi as well. Other than that, he is super thin. Like toothpick thin and I worry he wouldn't be able to hang in this league although I wouldn't be upset if we took a flyer on him with one of our later picks.

[Waylay13]

Still hoping for a star trade or Okafor!!

What do you think that Okafor brings to the table over Len? Okafor isnt a power forward as he doesnt have the range to open the lane, doesnt rebound well and has some very serious character issues. I wonder if he would even come close to scoring as well as he did if it wasnt for him being on the 76er with no talent.

To me a star trade means that we are going back to being late lottery or out in the first round of the playoff and that is the worst case to me.

Just wow. Jah's efficient high volume scoring on a tanking team makes him look worse? This is the same dumb reasoning posters here were using to argue that Noel was an empty "stat stuffer" despite anchoring Philly's defense to respectable middle of the pack as a rookie. Jahwas the #1 option and commanded double teams from the get go, and no one made excuses for him, he did He was getting held back by DLeague guards(Canaan/Stauskas), acquiring the journeyman Ish did wonders for him. In the month of January he was showing flashes of a faceup game and posted a true shooting percentage of 60%

So your view is that he will fix in with the team and not clog the lane that is so important to have open today and the character issues are non issues to you? Also how do you address his poor rebounding numbers?

Why would anyone double team JAH it isnt like the 76er had a balanced team or were even trying to win.

[Qwigglez]

Yup. I think Chriss is our pick. All of this Twitter stuff, plus that picture of Bender with McD, Bender looks uncomfortable like he's adjusting his shirt, I know it's only one picture but still.
Lets all jump on the Chriss train, dude is going to be the next Paul George!

I guess you didn't see all my posts about not wanting Chriss since I was joking about that. Didn't think I needed the green font.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Phoenix Suns

No. 4: Juan Hernangomez, PF, Estudiantes
No. 13: Jaylen Brown, SF, California
No. 28: Ivica Zubac, C, Mega Vizura
No. 34: Caris LeVert, SG, Michigan

So far, the draft has played out more or less as it actually might. Things go off the rails here.

Again, I'm not saying there's any chance the Suns would actually draft Hernangomez fourth. If Bender is off the board, Marquese Chriss would probably be the pick.

But I tend to prefer Hernangomez as a prospect because while he's not nearly the athlete Chriss is, he has a more proven track record as a shooter and is a substantially better defender. Because Phoenix has little need for the guards ahead of Hernangomez on my board (but in the same tier), I'd take him fourth.

By contrast, Brown is a lot more likely to go before the fourth pick than still be on the board at pick 13. My stats-only projection for Brown is one of the worst for any player in Ford's Top 100 because he scored so inefficiently.

Brown is actually projected to rate below replacement level over the course of his rookie contract. The track record for freshmen projected for negative wins above replacement player (WARP) is poor -- Festus Ezeli and Meyers Leonard are probably the best players in this group. Other one-and-done lottery picks with negative WARP projections include Shabazz Muhammad and Austin Rivers.

That all noted, I'm swayed by the fact that Cal played two non-spacing big men alongside Brown, giving him little room to operate. Brown actually projected well in Layne Vashro's model based on his pre-college All-Star appearances (an admittedly tiny sample), and analyst Nate Duncan has called him a top-three prospect.

At some point, well after Brown will actually go, that potential is impossible to ignore. I like Brown better in an up-tempo system, where he can ideally play as a small-ball 4 rather than a non-spacing 3.

With their third pick of the first round, the Suns will probably look to stash an international prospect, and Zubac has shown some potential in small samples. Given how injuries have limited LeVert's potential, I love the idea of Phoenix setting him up with the team's renowned medical staff.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16390580/kevin-pelton-grade-nba-mock-draft-best-picks-los-angeles-lakers-boston-celtics-more

Whaaaaaat??? How does Juan move from later lottery to #4 like that? I'm pretty sure he'll still be there at 13 unless I've missed something.

I like hernangomez a lot but picking him 4 is crazy. Now if they do it at 13 I'd be fine with that.

[MVSteve]

Spent tonight watching film of Zhou Qi.

I really like this kid's game. Hes very skilled for someone his size, and surprisingly co-ordinated and agile. Plays with alot of heart as well. I think many people look at him and think hes some Chinese stiff who cant move, but I personally think he has the agility and lateral quickness to be decent in pick and roll coverage on defence, which is one of the most important attributes for big men nowadays... Having a 7'8 wingspan also helps in closing out on shooters.

In the post on defence he will most definately be bullied. No doubt about it. But the modern NBA lacks back-to-basket bigs that will back Qi down, so it really isnt too important. The modern NBA big man is required to guard guards, and to protect the rim when rotating over for help. With Qi's 7'8 wingspan and good athleticism (32"max vert), he has the potential to be a very good help defender from the get go.

Hes a good jumpshooter for someone his size and has NBA range, although his release is very slow which may be a problem.
What impressed me the most is Qi's ability to put the ball on the floor. The guy can dribble, and change directions. He attacks the closeouts really well for 7'1 giant, and can take it all the way to the rim. He has some plays where hes taken it coast to coast himself too. I really dont see why he cant play the 4 in the NBA.

Ive grown really high on this kid so far. Hes not a finished product, by any means... But I dont think hes a "2 years away from being 2 years away." I see alot of Porzingis in his game. One thing going for him too is it seems he is an extremely high character guy - hard worker. Having him on the roster, banging against Tyson Chandler every day will do wonders for this kid's development. From my perspective, I think alot of his issues can be fixed through good mentoring and coaching. Things like positioning for rebounds or rotating on Defence can be taught through lots of film and time on the practise court with decent coaches. I feel like the guy lacks alot of BBIQ purely because the CBA really doesnt emphasize defence all too much. With Qi spending at least a season watching the majority of the game from the bench, and applying what he learns to the practise court, I think alot of his issues can be corrected.

Would most definitely be happy with us using the 28th pick on him, however I would not be surprised at all if he goes Late teens or early 20's come draft day.

I've been watching him some lately as well, and I think this is a good take. Definitely not a finished product, but he has really interesting tools that could make him pretty valuable. One thing I asked a while back but haven't found a clear answer on - have the issue surrounding his age been resolved? I read at one point rumors he was 3-4 years older than what's out there (like Yi). Have you seen/heard anything?

Latest DraftExpress Mock is out, not sure if anyone posted

4th Pick: Marquese Chriss
13th Pick: Domantas Sabonis
28th Pick: Ante Zizic
34th Pick: Zhou Qi

All bigs, I seriously doubt it turns out like this.

I agree, that seems unlikely. I really wouldn't mind that draft though. We have a ton of back-court players, and until the log-jam situation there is figured out (someone traded, Knight happy off the bench, etc.), I wouldn't mind adding several prospects to the front-court hoping someone pans out.

[saintEscaton]

What do you think that Okafor brings to the table over Len? Okafor isnt a power forward as he doesnt have the range to open the lane, doesnt rebound well and has some very serious character issues. I wonder if he would even come close to scoring as well as he did if it wasnt for him being on the 76er with no talent.

To me a star trade means that we are going back to being late lottery or out in the first round of the playoff and that is the worst case to me.

Just wow. Jah's efficient high volume scoring on a tanking team makes him look worse? This is the same dumb reasoning posters here were using to argue that Noel was an empty "stat stuffer" despite anchoring Philly's defense to respectable middle of the pack as a rookie. Jahwas the #1 option and commanded double teams from the get go, and no one made excuses for him, he did He was getting held back by DLeague guards(Canaan/Stauskas), acquiring the journeyman Ish did wonders for him. In the month of January he was showing flashes of a faceup game and posted a true shooting percentage of 60%

So your view is that he will fix in with the team and not clog the lane that is so important to have open today and the character issues are non issues to you? Also how do you address his poor rebounding numbers?

Why would anyone double team JAH it isnt like the 76er had a balanced team or were even trying to win.

Jah already has a midrange bank shot, I think its within the realm of possibility that he can develop a relaible jumper from 15 feet. You don't necessarily need him to be a three point threat, just not kill spacing he will eat alive small ball 5s. His TRB% is low but only 3 percent less than Len as a rookie , his per 36 rebounding numbers are respectable, on par with the Gasols. Jah is no choir boy like Len who is a class act, but his speeding incident/street fights were out of character. Coach K vouched for him and he had arough childhood raised in South Side CHciago wihtout a mother

[Frank Lee]

It's beyond me to figure out what to do at #4 with the talks of trades and whatnots..... But at 13 just go ahead and take Brice Johnson. He seems to be a certain contributor. Same type as Taj Gibson... Who I think was a late late first or early second and has done nothing but given solid minutes from day one. Johnsons game will translate and if you are looking for what we need he fits like a glove. Heck... I'd even start him with gslinger Mirza as back up.
Defense baby, defense

[LukasBMW]

Reading between the lines in these reports:

-Celtics perfer Noel over Okafor
-Philly wants to move either Noel or Okafor to draft Dunn
-Celtics also trying to move their pick for a star
-Lakers worked out Brown and Buddy

My interpretation:

Ainge is smart. If he can't flip #3 for a star, then he may trade it to Philly for Noel. But before he agrees to this with Philly, he wants to exhaust all other options and also probably see if the Lakers make a mistake @ #2 and let Ingram slide to #3.


My hope:

I hope the Lakers screw up (again), let Ingram slide to #3. Boston then might keep their pick and take Ingram. Even though we miss out on Ingram, we can trade #4 to Philly for Okafor.

[saintEscaton]

Johnson is a MASSIVELY overrated defender

[aewyatt7]

Hey guys. Long time subscriber but first or second post Ha. I won't be excited if we draft bender... Much rather have brown or chriss. More Chris than brown. He is a little smaller than I would like at SF but I'll take it. If we get bogdon then I'm sure we will be trading knight during draft. Anyways I just think it would be a great player pick up. I feel we really need to move knight so that booker can start tho.

[Frank Lee]

Johnson is a MASSIVELY overrated defender

It's not his strength, but he may be the best rebounder in this draft. start from there

I'm hoping for one of two things with #4...

If philly deals with Boston for Dunn then we swap #4 for DRussel and proceed to trade Bledsoe for a quality SF ....

Or we make the philly/oka4 swap


BTW.... Who is are the defensive PFs in this draft?

[bwgood77]

Whaaaaaat??? How does Juan move from later lottery to #4 like that? I'm pretty sure he'll still be there at 13 unless I've missed something.

He should have posted the model Pelton uses. It's not his personal opinion of what will happen or necessarily what he thinks should happen. It's strictly based on how his projections show guys will translate to the NBA based on their age and previous production.

[sunsfever68]

If we move Okafor for the 4 pick are we saying Okafor is a power forward? He's best playing center and we have Chandler and Len there.


If Okafor and Len can work together offense/defense I'm for it. Okafor needs to get his act together though we all know he's a prolific offensive talent.


Bledsoe Booker Okafor Len is a solid young core. Pull the trigger McD

[bwgood77]

What do you think that Okafor brings to the table over Len? Okafor isnt a power forward as he doesnt have the range to open the lane, doesnt rebound well and has some very serious character issues. I wonder if he would even come close to scoring as well as he did if it wasnt for him being on the 76er with no talent.

To me a star trade means that we are going back to being late lottery or out in the first round of the playoff and that is the worst case to me.

Just wow. Jah's efficient high volume scoring on a tanking team makes him look worse? This is the same dumb reasoning posters here were using to argue that Noel was an empty "stat stuffer" despite anchoring Philly's defense to respectable middle of the pack as a rookie. Jahwas the #1 option and commanded double teams from the get go, and no one made excuses for him, he did He was getting held back by DLeague guards(Canaan/Stauskas), acquiring the journeyman Ish did wonders for him. In the month of January he was showing flashes of a faceup game and posted a true shooting percentage of 60%

So your view is that he will fix in with the team and not clog the lane that is so important to have open today and the character issues are non issues to you? Also how do you address his poor rebounding numbers?

Why would anyone double team JAH it isnt like the 76er had a balanced team or were even trying to win.

He LOVES himself some JAH. I really like Jahlil too and he can be a stud. He is extremely inconsistent and will sometimes be unbelievable scoring. But other times he shoots 3-18 or slightly better at 20-30%. I saw this at Duke. It's kind of inexplicable. Kind of like Len was shooting down the stretch.

His rebounding leaves a lot to be desired. When engaged he can even be a good defender, but this isn't always the case. Extremely inconsistent. He actually had a negative VORP this season.

Then of course he chases guys down on the street to beat them down. He's certainly a better prospect than Len but to put him on the block so fast and have few teams biting is a bit odd when Embiid is far from unknown. I think one of him and Noel will probably get traded on draft night, so we'll see. I'm not sure McD would go for him though.