Suns best five defenders...

[Wannabe MEP]

...may actually be a really good unit on offense as well.

The Suns problem is defense, which is currently sitting at worst in the league. The offense is second best, and probably would be first if Nash hadn't missed two games and if the early season schedule wasn't so tough. I am confident that for the 9th year in a row (at least), Nash will lead his team to the highest offensive rating in the NBA. But we need to improve the defense.

I KNOW THIS IS COMPLETELY OVERSIMPLIFIED AND THAT STATS CAN'T SAY EVERYTHING, but I thought this was interesting. I looked at defensive ratings at basketballvalue.com so far this year for the ten Suns who have played at least a hundred minutes http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... =2010-2011. Five have positive ratings, in this order:
1) Warrick
2) Frye
3) Dudley
4) Childress
5) Nash

There are a lot of questions about those stats, most importantly the limited data set and the fact that it is unadjusted. But still, isn't it interesting? This is a complete unit, a unit that has hardly touched the floor together. What would happen if they learned to play together?

I think this could be as good of a unit as we've ever had in the Nash era. Here's why.
1) Nash is still Nash.
2) Stat was an enormous defensive liability. Warrick is an upgrade defensively, and only a marginal downgrade offensively. He still can get Nash-fed dunks with ease off the PnR, which is by far the most important thing Stat ever did. He's as good of a free throw shooter as Stat, his true shooting % is slightly better at this point, and his scoring average is lower but surprisingly similar per minute. If he were to get more minutes, especially with Nash, he might improve dramatically.
3) Is it just me, or is Childress-Dudley the second coming of Marion-Bell?
4) Frye is something we've never had before. He's starting to score inside when he needs to, but he allows us to play four-out. The Suns best units have always had four out. He allows us to play small ball without actually getting small.
5) For a Suns team, this is like a redwood forest.
6) Includes our top three 3-point shooters from last year.
7) All five can run the floor well, but Nash, Childress, and Warrick are incredible at it. Dunks first, open threes for the trailers second.
8) fast-break or half-court: I predict tons of Nash-fed dunks for Childress and Warrick.
9) I've made it quite clear in other threads that I believe Dudley is a perfect compliment to Nash (and Hill isn't).
10) Defensively this group has a ton of hustle, two excellent perimeter defenders, and as good of a frontcourt as the Suns have ever had with Nash.

The number one thing this group is missing that guys like Stat, JRich, Hill, and Turk provide is the ability to create one's own shot. I've said this before and I'll keep saying it: WE DON'T NEED THAT WHEN NASH IS ON THE COURT. We need those kinds of players when Nash is not on the court.

[YFZblu]

3) Is it just me, or is Childress-Dudley the second coming of Marion-Bell?

Great comparison

[TheMoochinator]

love childress but I feel like people forget how incredibly great marion was

[Saberestar]

Marion was a 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists ,2 steals and 2 blocks player.
Childress is a 10 points-5 rebounds -1-1-1 player.
This is it.

[YFZblu]

People take player comparisons way too literally sometimes.

I'll be interested once the numbers are adjusted and over a longer sample size.

[Wannabe MEP]

Marion was a 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists ,2 steals and 2 blocks player.
Childress is a 10 points-5 rebounds -1-1-1 player.
This is it.

Half the stats in half the minutes (almost 40 minutes versus less than 20). Hardly any of them with Nash.

Did you notice Marion's precipitous drop in productivity post-Nash? Childress hasn't yet played with Nash (just a few minutes). When he does, his numbers will skyrocket.

[YFZblu]

Marion was a 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists ,2 steals and 2 blocks player.
Childress is a 10 points-5 rebounds -1-1-1 player.
This is it.

Half the stats in half the minutes (almost 40 minutes versus less than 20). Hardly any of them with Nash.

Did you notice Marion's precipitous drop in productivity post-Nash? Childress hasn't yet played with Nash (just a few minutes). When he does, his numbers will skyrocket.

This. IMO, we'll see a brand new Childress when his finger splint comes off. He's the real deal, and will make Turkoglu look that much worse. When Lopez returns and Childress gets healthy, we may see Turkoglu fighting for minutes with Earl Clark

[Saberestar]

Childress does not play more than 30 minutes on regular basis in his career because he is not a real starter material for a great team.
Marion was stronger, with incredible motor, always active, a top ten defender in his best years capable to guard multiple spots (from point guards to power forwards).
Childress is like Marion, but worse in overall.

I have to say that I love Childress , I think he is a good player and he does a lot of things on the court but Marion was in another level, an All Star.

[lilfishi22]

Childress does not play more than 30 minutes on regular basis in his career because he is not a real starter material for a great team.
Marion was stronger, with incredible motor, always active, a top ten defender in his best years capable to guard multiple spots (from point guards to power forwards).
Childress is like Marion, but worse in overall.

I have to say that I love Childress , I think he is a good player and he does a lot of things on the court but Marion was in another level, an All Star.

This. Both players bring a lot to the table in terms of production and intangibles but Marion really was an incredible player, with or without Nash (pre-Nash he was still close to a 20/10 guy, Nash just helped him with efficiency). Even adjusted to per36 minutes, Marion is still a better rebounder, scorer, shot blocker and stealer. Though Childress has him in efficiency.

[Miklo]

I KNOW THIS IS COMPLETELY OVERSIMPLIFIED AND THAT STATS CAN'T SAY EVERYTHING

Hope that wasn't because of what I said, I'm a big stat person too and a lot of it I'm just learning now from reading people's posts on RGM

Childress Dudley has the potential to be a Marion Bell duo going forward...Chill has a ways to go before being prime Marion but I like the comparison.

[Wannabe MEP]

I KNOW THIS IS COMPLETELY OVERSIMPLIFIED AND THAT STATS CAN'T SAY EVERYTHING

Hope that wasn't because of what I said, I'm a big stat person too and a lot of it I'm just learning now from reading people's posts on RGM

Oh no, lots of people disagree with how much I emphasize obscure stats. I figured I'd preemptively qualify my comments this time.

[Sundamental]

Los Soles,

I signed up for this forum after reading your posts in the Stagnant Offense thread. Love what you're trying to do to generate discussion and I appreciate the way in which the +/- system is trying to capture all of the variables rather than just take the traditional stats. However, I think the system requires such a large sample size that even a year is insufficient. I have never taken any stat courses but I'm quite good in math and would like to learn more about advanced stats like that. Could you recommend any site/forums?

As to the unit you are suggesting, why not. But as to Childress matching up with Marion, I think you're giving a bit to much credit for now. Marion really was a force. No reason though that Duds can't match up against Raja. He guarded Kobe in last years playoff better than Raja ever did.

[lilfishi22]

Los Soles,

I signed up for this forum after reading your posts in the Stagnant Offense thread. Love what you're trying to do to generate discussion and I appreciate the way in which the +/- system is trying to capture all of the variables rather than just take the traditional stats. However, I think the system requires such a large sample size that even a year is insufficient. I have never taken any stat courses but I'm quite good in math and would like to learn more about advanced stats like that. Could you recommend any site/forums?

As to the unit you are suggesting, why not. But as to Childress matching up with Marion, I think you're giving a bit to much credit for now. Marion really was a force. No reason though that Duds can't match up against Raja. He guarded Kobe in last years playoff better than Raja ever did.

Kobe almost averaged a triple double (33/7/8.3) against us in the playoffs last season and probably had one of the most efficient playoff series in his career. He shot 52% from the field and 43% from the 3. Hard to say Dudley guarded Kobe better than Raja ever did.

[Sundamental]

Kobe defied the statistics in that series. He's never made so many shots with guys draped on him. That's what I saw.

[Wannabe MEP]

Los Soles,

I signed up for this forum after reading your posts in the Stagnant Offense thread. Love what you're trying to do to generate discussion and I appreciate the way in which the +/- system is trying to capture all of the variables rather than just take the traditional stats.

Thanks, I really appreciate it.

However, I think the system requires such a large sample size that even a year is insufficient.

True. Still better than a box score, but true.

I have never taken any stat courses but I'm quite good in math and would like to learn more about advanced stats like that. Could you recommend any site/forums?

This is my first time playing in this kind of forum, and I'm fairly new, so I can't help you there. I can tell you the sites that I frequent for stats.

My favorites are
http://basketballvalue.com/index.php -- Everything, both individual and unit stats
and
http://hoopdata.com/ -- Player stats, usually advanced and shot locations. Hoopdata is really interesting to play around with; it lets you manipulate a lot.

For team rankings I look at Hollinger's power rankings
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings
Hollinger's playoff odds
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
and Sagarin's ratings
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1011.htm

I don't like Hollinger's players stats, but I do like his team stats
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats
especially offensive and defensive efficiency

I sometimes go to
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/
for old info on a player that hoopdata doesn't have, but that site annoys me.

This is my favorite place for advanced stats articles
http://www.82games.com/articles.htm

And this is one of the best articles you'll ever read
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magaz ... ier-t.html

[Sundamental]

Los Soles,

Thanks for the info. If anyone else has a forum where people discuss advanced stats, I'd appreciate it. BTW Los Soles, stats really must really not be that popular because if anyone had bothered to read the sites you referenced re: Grant Hill, they would have been able to put up a reasonable argument for him using that data. Like how you conveniently didn't mention his the08-09 season where he was the only positive */- on the team besides Nash. Not busting, just sayin. Oh, and did you notice how Amare was almost at the bottom every year and is still almost the worst in NY. I think you should start a post about that.

[DRK]

Suns 5 best Defenders (in no particular order)

1. Earl Clark
2. Jared Dudley
3. Grant Hill
4. Josh Childress
5. Channing Frye/Robin Lopez

[Wannabe MEP]

BTW Los Soles, stats really must really not be that popular because if anyone had bothered to read the sites you referenced re: Grant Hill, they would have been able to put up a reasonable argument for him using that data. Like how you conveniently didn't mention his the08-09 season where he was the only positive */- on the team besides Nash. Not busting, just sayin.

Yeah, I noticed that. I thought it made sense that the style was so different under Porter with Shaq. Which fits my thesis that Grant Hill may in fact be the better player, but not when paired with Nash in the play-fast-and-fire-threes-offense.

Oh, and did you notice how Amare was almost at the bottom every year and is still almost the worst in NY. I think you should start a post about that.

Definitely have toyed with that one. I'm was thinking of waiting until Warrick's numbers improved with more time with Nash, the Suns record picked up, and Stoudemire's and the Knicks' numbers looked REALLY bad.

[lilfishi22]

Kobe defied the statistics in that series. He's never made so many shots with guys draped on him. That's what I saw.

Same could be said for when Kobe had the 45pt and 50pt games against Raja. As an individual defender, I'd take prime Raja over Dudley any day. Raja was frikken intense when he played D and not only did he have the same hustle as Dudley, he also had better fundamentals.

I do like the Raja/Dudley comparisons though.

[Miklo]

Los Soles,

Thanks for the info. If anyone else has a forum where people discuss advanced stats, I'd appreciate it. BTW Los Soles, stats really must really not be that popular because if anyone had bothered to read the sites you referenced re: Grant Hill, they would have been able to put up a reasonable argument for him using that data. Like how you conveniently didn't mention his the08-09 season where he was the only positive */- on the team besides Nash. Not busting, just sayin. Oh, and did you notice how Amare was almost at the bottom every year and is still almost the worst in NY. I think you should start a post about that.

You can also visit RealGM's NBA Statistical Analysis Forum:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewforum.php?f=344

For discussions about advanced stats, etc.

Good to have you guys around to bring more of that here, sort of forces me to learn more