Up 4-5 points, under 20 seconds left, why don't teams foul?

[Fat_Borbath]

There's something I've never understood, and tonight's game just reminded me of it again. Here is the play-by-play at the end of the 4th quarter:

0:14 94-90 Travis Outlaw enters the game for Kris Humphries
0:10 94-93 Anthony Morrow makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deron Williams assists)
0:10 Phoenix full timeout
0:10 Channing Frye enters the game for Marcin Gortat 94-93
0:10 Aaron Brooks enters the game for Hakim Warrick 94-93
0:10 94-93 Kris Humphries enters the game for Brook Lopez
0:08 Channing Frye makes dunk (Grant Hill assists) 96-93
0:02 Steve Nash shooting foul (Anthony Morrow draws the foul) 96-93
0:02 96-94 Anthony Morrow makes free throw 1 of 3
0:02 96-94 Brook Lopez enters the game for Kris Humphries
0:02 Marcin Gortat enters the game for Vince Carter 96-94
0:02 Hakim Warrick enters the game for Aaron Brooks 96-94
0:02 96-94 Kris Humphries enters the game for Sasha Vujacic
0:02 96-95 Anthony Morrow makes free throw 2 of 3
0:02 96-96 Anthony Morrow makes free throw 3 of 3
0:02 Phoenix 20 Sec. timeout
0:02 Vince Carter enters the game for Marcin Gortat 96-96
0:02 96-96 Damion James enters the game for Brook Lopez
0:02 5 sec inbound turnover 96-96
0:02 96-96 Brook Lopez enters the game for Kris Humphries
0:02 Aaron Brooks enters the game for Hakim Warrick 96-96
0:02 96-96 Sasha Vujacic enters the game for Damion James
0:00 End of the 4th Quarter

If a team is up 3 with under 20 seconds to go, they will often foul so the other team can only get 2 points (at the line) instead of hitting a 3. But why not do it even if you're up 4 or 5? Especially if you have the greatest foul shooter of all-time. Exchange free throws, especially if you can keep getting it to Nash, and you should win. If the other team has player(s) in foul trouble, it's of even more benefit if you can get them to foul out. Plus the other team won't be expecting to be fouled, so they're not going to chuck it up from three point range as soon as one of your players gets close enough to foul them.

[now and 4 life]

I remember Don Nelson employed this tactic against the Raptors last season. It didn't work out as planned since the Warriors would have lost if Bosh didn't miss a point blank lay up.(I am pretty sure this is the same game)

[Fat_Borbath]

I don't think the Warriors did that. I don't think I've ever seen a team do that. Here is the play-by-play from that game:

http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameI ... 8&period=4

[now and 4 life]

I don't think the Warriors did that. I don't think I've ever seen a team do that. Here is the play-by-play from that game:

http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameI ... 8&period=4

At 12 seconds it is a 4 point game. The Warriors foul Jack who makes one of two.
At 10 seconds it is a 3 point game. The Warriors foul Jack again who makes both.
At 8 seconds it is a 3 point game. The Warriors foul Hedo who makes both.
At 2 seconds it is a 3 point game. The Warriors foul Bosh who makes both.
Note that all these fouls count are not listed as shooting fouls. So I am pretty sure there was an intentional strategy to foul when they were up by 3 or more.

Anyway I am pretty sure this is not the only time this strategy has been used. However, it definitely should be used more often especially when the opposition has poor free throw shooters on their team(for example this strategy should work against the Celtics).

[Jdiddy701]

Wuss move.. Teams want to show they can play defense and I believe that's the right way to go.

[Dalerax]

Um, if you're up 4-5 and you instantly foul, the lead goes to a 2-3 point lead. One bad inbound and they have a chance to tie and win it.

If you instead just play good defense and contest the shot without fouling, the chances of them hitting the shot are usually slim. They miss the shot and the game is sealed. If you foul instead, the game is now a one possession game.

[Fat_Borbath]

Wuss move.. Teams want to show they can play defense and I believe that's the right way to go.

Why give them a chance to exchange their threes for your twos? Especially if you are a better foul shooting team than them. They are going to foul you right away, so foul them right away in return. If they continue the strategy and they have guys in foul trouble, they could be forced to foul them out.

[Wannabe MEP]

Why give them a chance to exchange their threes for your twos?

Because most teams shoot below 40% from three. Much worse when the defense expects a three. Worse still when the defense knows which guy is going to shoot the three. For example, Kobe is shooting 21.4% from three in clutch minutes (last five minutes of a close game) and probably much worse than that with under 20 seconds left. That's Kobe, one of the most skilled players at creating his own shot. Nobody remembers the misses, because the degree of difficulty was so high. Everybody remembers the makes...because the degree of difficulty was so high. OMG, how heroic.

Foul: you're almost guaranteed a two to three point game with lots of time left.
Let them jack up a rushed, contested three: you're almost guaranteed a missed shot.

The difference in percentages for open vs contested shots is enormous.

[NiGhtWiSh]

+5, 20 secs to go: the better way IMHO is play no faul defense as long as possible, trying to trap a guy with a bball and steal the ball, closing passing lanes. It's hard, but it steals time, even if opponents shoot a hoop at the end... You still have +2,+3 points and bball in hands. And few seconds to go.

[lilfishi22]

Why give them a chance to exchange their threes for your twos? Especially if you are a better foul shooting team than them. They are going to foul you right away, so foul them right away in return. If they continue the strategy and they have guys in foul trouble, they could be forced to foul them out.

I'd much rather play hand in face D and contest their 3 (especially when there's still plenty of time left) than stopping the game (when we want the clock to keep running) and exchange FT's. I understand Nash is an excellent FT shooter, but inbounding the ball, whether it's from baseline or past half-court, is more difficult when the other team is trying to deny you the ball. It only takes one slip up (like Hill in the last game) and the other team can turn the game around.

Fouling to stop the clock/exchange FT's is an offensive tactic. Doesn't make sense for the defense when a contested shot is always a lower % shot than putting guys on the FT line.

[PHX_SUNS04]

yeah usually teams dont get as good of looks like morrow did for 3, its much better to try and play D and force them to make something happen, it also should waste more time

[JasonDaPsycho]

1. When a team is down by 3 with less than 24 seconds left, they want a good look instead of jacking up a shot. Playing defense will make them waste more time in attempt of finding a good shot.
2. Most of these possessions go to their best 3 pt shooter or their best shot creator. These players generally have a shoot-first mentality in clutch time (see: Ray Allen). There is a good chance when you attempt to foul them, they immediately get into shooting motion, possibly turning the touching foul into a shooting foul. It is impossible to predict how the refs make these calls.

With all that being said, it's just not worth it.