Suns to be screwed over in 2012 Draft?

[MarJJMar]

I guess this deserves it's own thread, seems like it is worth a headline rather than stuck in the other topic where some people won't click on it.

Ric Bucher tweeted that this would be likely.

I created an example based on this ...
Weighted formula is 2011 x3, 2010 x2 and 2009 x1

Code: Select all

Team      Draft Position Avg   Win Avg   Weighted    Win Score
minnesota   3,0000000000      18,6666666667      105
New Jersey   6,0000000000      23,3333333333      130
Sacramento   3,0000000000      22,0000000000      139
Washington   3,3333333333      22,6666666667      140
Clippers   6,3333333333      26,6666666667      173
Toronto      8,0000000000      31,6666666667      179
Detroit      9,6666666667      32,0000000000      183
Golden State   7,6666666667      30,3333333333      189
Indiana      12,6666666667      35,0000000000      211
New York   11,3333333333      34,3333333333      216
Philly      13,0000000000      36,3333333333      218
Charlotte   12,3333333333      37,6666666667      225
Milwaukee   12,3333333333      38,3333333333      231
Memphis      12,6666666667      36,6666666667      242
cleveland   20,6666666667      48,6666666667      245
New Orleans   17,0000000000      44,0000000000      261
Houston      17,0000000000      46,0000000000      266
Utah      18,3333333333      46,6666666667      271
Phoenix      17,6666666667      46,6666666667      274
Atlanta      20,6666666667      48,0000000000      285
OKC      16,0000000000      42,6666666667      288
Portland   22,3333333333      50,6666666667      298
chicago      20,3333333333      48,0000000000      309
Denver      24,0000000000      52,3333333333      310
Miami      21,3333333333      49,3333333333      311
Boston      24,0000000000      56,0000000000      330
Dallas      25,3333333333      54,0000000000      331
Orlando      26,3333333333      56,6666666667      333
San Antonio   25,0000000000      55,0000000000      337
Lakers      27,6666666667      59,6666666667      350


Needless to say this would totally screw the Suns and the Cavalliers in particular who lost Amare and Lebron for nothing in those 3 years.

The Suns are likely to pick in the #18-20 range if this comes true. That is a DISASTER. As it stands we would be likely to be a top 10 lottery team at best.
If the season is lost Grant Hill and Steve Nash might retire or leave as free agents. We would enter a 2012/2013 season with Gortat, Frye, Warrick, Dudley, Morris and a #20 pick assuming amnesty clause on Childress.

[MarJJMar]

Imo the best solutions would be in order

1. Reverse last years lottery odds
2. Redo last years lottery with equal odds
3. Publicly aggregate a pseudo power ranking among all team GMs
4. Redo last years lottery

[Miklo]

Any reason the normal lottery process wouldn't be used, or is this assuming there isn't a season?

[MarJJMar]

Bucher tweeted a 3 year aggregate slightly weighted would likely be used if there is no season..

Likeliest NBA draft order formula if no season: 3 seasons aggregated for order, then lottery for worst 14. Slightly weighted in other ways.

https://mobile.twitter.com/#!/RicBucher ... 4031924224

[Pofukauskas]

lol 18-20 pick...sorry i'm really not trolling and I allways kind of liked the Suns but...

You are so so f*****ed. You have absolutely nothing valuable besides Gortat (and that's saying something) on your roster when Nash retires or when he leaves. Also quite some bad contracts on your team...you're as f*****ed as the Magic when Howard leaves next year. Suns and Magic are gonna be the laughing stock of the league for the years to come. On top of all that you're stuck with Sarver. I don't see the Suns being relevant for minimum 10 years. Just look at talented rosters of garbage teams from the past years like Minnesota, Sacramento, Clippers, even Toronto and Cleveland. Nets will be moving to Brooklyn with 2 superstars...dark dark times are coming for Suns fans. And lol did I mention Sarver? Sorry guys, nothing personal but I had to...

[MarJJMar]

Childress is the only bad contract we have and Sarver is not a good owner but not as bad as the media makes him sound either. Afterall we had one of the highest payrolls while we were competing he just did not spend insane like Cuban and also kept an eye on the profit which made the Suns one of the few profitable franchises at least.

[JohnVancouver]

Childress is actually more useful to us than Warrick -I don't see him as a bad deal at all.
So Prof.Fuksukass or whatever the ballboy's name hasn't done much checking - the only bad deal we have is Warrick, at $5mil per, and the only Big Ugly deal is VC, and he's expired and will likely cost $4mil to move to someone who wants the remaining $14mil savings. he may be a valuable (on paper) piece to someone - I hope so. We can resign Brooks for not-much, and he's very tradeable.

Nah - we're really okay. Not great but nothing dire.

[Miklo]

I don't personally think Pofukauskas is off base...he's echoing sentiments that many here have.

I don't think we're totally screwed, but I also don't think we're fine. We have a crap owner, our contracts, even if not all bad, just don't make sense, and Nash and Hill are like 50.

I'm not negative on the team overall, just saying I don't think it's entirely illogical to say we are in some trouble.

[Phystic]

I would say he's pretty thoroughly off-base. Sure our team is not set up very well. But our "bad" contracts are hardly that bad, nothing that worrisome. Warrick, Frye, Childress I would say are the only contracts that are that bad. Possibly Brooks depending on what we resign him too.

Not be relevant for a minimum of 10 years is ridiculous. Our team has one of the highest win %s in NBA history, there is a reason for that. Granted Sarver is NOT on Jerry C's level but Sarver has tried to put a winning team on the floor, but he also has an eye on the bottom line which has screwed us a few times. You might be right about the Magic with the contracts they will have after Howard left but we have nothing resembling Arenas, Hedo, Reddick, Nelsons contracts.

I'd say he's right about our team being in a bad position that's about it. But I stopped taking him seriously when I saw he was a brand new member and started his post by saying "I'm really not trolling..." Riiiiiiiiiight

[MarJJMar]

dude, we have no young talent whatsoever on this roster except maybe Morris, our future obviously looks worst in the entire league right now..

Fryes contract is not even bad but when you consider that if this is true and we lose the season, Nash and Hill might retire that we will go into 2012/2013 with a 29 year old Marcin Gortat as our best player who has not proven anything except for 3 months set up by Nash, plus Morris, Warrick, Childress, Dudley and a #20 pick we will need a minimum for 3-4 years to get out the lottery if we draft well because it does not look like we will be able to draw a top free agent anytime soon.

With some moves it might be possible to sign Chris Paul and Dwight Howard but why would they want to come here.

[Phystic]

Our team is not good but it's not a 10 year rebuild process. We have solid role players, no horrible contracts, and cap space once Nash and Carter are gone assuming we don't overpay Gortat or Brooks.

Is our team good? No. Will our team be good next year? No. But we have pieces to get stuff done if our GM is active and creative. In your worst case scenario and Nash/Hill retire, Carter will have been bought out shaving about 14M off our cap, Childress or Warrick will probably be amnestied if that provision is implemented in the new CBA. Without looking up the numbers that leaves us with Frye and the remaining of Childress/Warrick contract.

We aren't good, but it could be FAR worse. IF this season is forfeited and Nash and Hill retire, that will set us up nicely for Free Agency and possibility of picking up amnestied players.

Could be worse.

[Miklo]

Wow I never thought I'd say this but I think I might start seeking the Suns board whenever I need a pick me up. Guess I have been kind of negative on them lately mainly because it just doesn't seem like Sarver cares enough to do what needs to be done to contend in this league. But I do agree there are lots of positives so I am probably just caught up on the Sarver thing.

[NashtyNas]

Childress is actually more useful to us than Warrick -I don't see him as a bad deal at all.
So Prof.Fuksukass or whatever the ballboy's name hasn't done much checking - the only bad deal we have is Warrick, at $5mil per, and the only Big Ugly deal is VC, and he's expired and will likely cost $4mil to move to someone who wants the remaining $14mil savings. he may be a valuable (on paper) piece to someone - I hope so. We can resign Brooks for not-much, and he's very tradeable.

Nah - we're really okay. Not great but nothing dire.

This. I really don't see how there is no season unless the union decertifies, which is just a trick up the sleeve that will never be used so I'm not worried. I'm not "happy" with our outlook for the future, but there's teams with MUCH worse futures and we don't really have much to complain about.

We have 2 likely scenarios:
1) Trade Nash for what we can get (likely expirings + a late first or minor prospect), let VC expire, re-sign Brooks and suck for the year. Result - mediocre roster with little up-side, but a possibly high lottery pick and another late first.

2) Keep Nash and ride him till he's done, trade VC for win now pieces (Brand/Iggy, Jamison/Varejao) and try to give it one last shot. Result - make it to the WCF only to get bum-holed by Stern, start the rebuild a year later.

[DirtyDez]

Yeah this rumor was flying around in June. I really hope there is a season to salvage a legit draft order based on 2011-12 because we'll likely be in the top 10 range. Not that i trust this FO to make a right pick anyway, they've already admitted in building a team thru free agency which is the wrong direction. For every Steve Nash there's 10 mediocre-to-poor signings.

[MarJJMar]

if there is no new age limit you cant make a bad pick in next years draft in the lottery.

[sunskerr]

Probably the worst thing that can happen in free agency to our team is hitting the panic button and overpaying a guy because we weren't able to acquire another target.

[JohnVancouver]

Probably the worst thing that can happen in free agency to our team is hitting the panic button and overpaying a guy because we weren't able to acquire another target.

We saw that in full bloom last year when Sarver played GM.

Man, I still cannot believe we got shut of Hedo and got The Gortat in return.


As stated "Our team is not good but it's not a 10 year rebuild process. We have solid role players, no horrible contracts, and cap space once Nash and Carter are gone assuming we don't overpay Gortat or Brooks."

I'd amend that to "our team is not great" and let the rest stand - we're not contending, no, but the bad contracts are not terrible and we have some solid pieces. What we don't have is an identity - two years ago we were suposed to suck and we made the WCF, mainly behind a second unit that overachieved. We went from Seven Seconds or Shaq, which was an effective concept, to the Send On the Marines bench mob with Sweet Lou, Goran, etc and I wonder what that team would have been like if we had kept it together and added Amar'e?
But we didn't and the team has been rebuilt and torn down a couple times, in one season - who the hell knows who we are now?

I'm hoping we're a running team that rebounds better than we have and plays sufficient defense that it forces turnovers, which lets us run. I think we have the cast for that

[Sun Scorched]

Am I thrilled? No. Am I worried? No.

The team is in a financially sound position going forward. If there was an amnesty provision, I would expect that we use it on Warrick due to the young PFs we have rostered.

Childress just needs playing time to be valuable - you don't pay to dump a player when his value is artificially low.

Here is what I do miss - Dragic and Amundson. Maybe there was more to it than I'll ever know, but I liked those guys as parts going forward. I find myself looking for players that have qualities those two already possessed, so it seems like backward movement to have moved both.

[GrantHill]

Probably the worst thing that can happen in free agency to our team is hitting the panic button and overpaying a guy because we weren't able to acquire another target.

We saw that in full bloom last year when Sarver played GM.

Man, I still cannot believe we got shut of Hedo and got The Gortat in return.


As stated "Our team is not good but it's not a 10 year rebuild process. We have solid role players, no horrible contracts, and cap space once Nash and Carter are gone assuming we don't overpay Gortat or Brooks."

I'd amend that to "our team is not great" and let the rest stand - we're not contending, no, but the bad contracts are not terrible and we have some solid pieces. What we don't have is an identity - two years ago we were suposed to suck and we made the WCF, mainly behind a second unit that overachieved. We went from Seven Seconds or Shaq, which was an effective concept, to the Send On the Marines bench mob with Sweet Lou, Goran, etc and I wonder what that team would have been like if we had kept it together and added Amar'e?
But we didn't and the team has been rebuilt and torn down a couple times, in one season - who the hell knows who we are now?

I'm hoping we're a running team that rebounds better than we have and plays sufficient defense that it forces turnovers, which lets us run. I think we have the cast for that

Agree. Let's say Frye improves his defense (he was solid last year) and Dudley learns to create off the dribble we would have a very decent starting united. Our problem is our bench. I'll hope Morris gives us some decent minutes and becomes a hard working defender. Childress and Brooks a nice too, but we would need another SG and C. I'll give Lopez one last chance to see what he could do if he was healthy, but we really need a spark off the bench (Redd). Pietrus is not the answer.
Future:

Brooks/Dowdell
SG
Dudley/Childress
ROOKIE / Morris
Gortat / Frye

We will have enough cap space to get a nice young SG. Add a PF like Barnes trough the draft and it would be a solid team. Not a contender but pretty solid.

[DirtyDez]

if there is no new age limit you cant make a bad pick in next years draft in the lottery.

That's what i said when the Cards had the #5 pick in 2007... There is never a sure thing prospect.