Drafting a starter (probability guide)

[Beetlejuice]

General 1st round draft pick value 2001-2009.

I suggested 1 trade and i realised that before suggesting any other i should educate myself in value of draft picks.

Since i wrote it down anyway i may share it with you and you can point out my shortcomings if you see the need to do so.

I chose 2001-2009 because i think its a bit more accurate assesment of scouting and drafting capabilities since scouting should have evolved to such high levels already that no major breakthrough in that area shouldnt be coming in the next few years.

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I needed a general numeric value to evaluate every position.

I chose efficiency statistic, because it can be applied to all 5 position as 1 number. (although i cant really say that you can compare every position : 18 centre is as good as 18 SG , but as a 1 stat i think its the most effective one at that)

I did a very small research and i came up that if you want a playoff team your starting five should average at least 75 combined and 80+ to be a contentender its a huge huge huge generalisation but i think I can work with that as my subjective benchmark .


Sample from 2010 - 2011
regular season

EAST
Miami EFF: 87 ... James 28,6 + Wade 24,8 + Bosh 20,4 + Chalmers 7,4 + J. Anthony 5,8
Chicago EFF: 85 ... Rose 23,1 + Noah 19,9 + Boozer 19,8 + Deng 17,1 + Bogans 5,1

WEST
Dallas EFF: 77... Nowitzki 23,5 + Chandler 17,3 + Kidd 15,4 + Marion 15,1 + Stevenson 5,4 (+incredible bench Terry, C. Butler, Haywood, Stojakovic, JJ Barea )
Oklahoma EFF: 83 ... Durant 24,9 + Westbrook 22,4 + Perkins 10,9 + Ibaka 15,6 + Sefolosa 9,4

Phoenix (before/after MG trade) : ~72/77 ... Nash 21 + Carter 12,2 + Hill 13,6 + Frye 14,9 + Gortat ~15

2009-2010 Phoenix : 88 ... Stoudemire 23,5+ Nash 21,6 + Richardson 15,4 + Hill 13,9 + Frye 13,6
And 2011 Phoenix : 69 ... Gortat 21 + Nash 19 + Dudley 11,8 + Frye 8,7 + Hill 8,0


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NB! Following is a more of a probality of rebuilding a team mostly from draft where role players is not the thing someone is looking to draft. Basically 1 or 0 system.

So we want minimum 15 efficiency on average from our starters, so i looked only 15+.

1st round Draft picks converted to average efficiency : we use 2001-2009 year drafts as a probability sample

Quick look at 2001-2009 drafts ... too early to tell 2010+... some subjectivity involved


Franchise players efficiency 22+ ... NB! Only 1st round picks are in sample
2001 Gasol 3, Z. Randolph 19
2002 Y. Ming 1, A. Stoudemire 9,
2003 L. James 1, C.Anthony 3, C. Bosh 4, D. Wade 5,
2004 D. Howard 1
2005 D. Williams 3, C.Paul 4
2006 B. Roy 6
2007 K.Durant 2
2008 D. Rose 1, R. Westbrook 4 , K. Love 5
2009 B. Griffin 1

NBA starters efficiency 15 -22 (some borderline all-stars, some had eff of 15+ only for 1-2 seasons)
2001 T. Chandler 2, J. Richardson 5, Joe Johnson 10 R. Jefferson 13, G. Wallace 25, T.Parker 28
2002 D. Gooden 4, Nene 7, C. Butler 10, T. Prince 23
2003 C. Kaman 6, K. Hinrich 7, D.West 18, B.Diaw 21
2004 B. Gordon 3 , D. Harris 5, L. Deng 7, A. Iguodala 9, A. Jefferson 15, J. Smith 17, K. Martin 26
2005 A. Bogut 1, R.Felton 5, A. Bynum 10, D. Granger 17, D. Lee 30
2006 A.Bargnani 1, L. Aldridge 2, R. Gay 8 , R. Rondo 21
2007 A. Hortford 3, J. Noah 9, W. Chandler 23
2008 M. Beasley 2, O.J. Mayo 3, D. Gallinari 6, E.Gordon 7 , B.Lopez 10
2009 J. Harden 3, T. Evans 4, R.Rubio 5, S. Curry 7, B.Jennings 10

Summary :
Franchise players:
Pick 1 ..... 5/9 55%
Pick 2-5 ....9/36 25%
Pick 6-10 .. 3/45 7%
Pick 11-20.. 1/90 1%
Pick 21/30 0/90 0%

NBA starters (above average starter)
Pick 1 ..... 2/9 22%
Pick 2-5 ....13/36 36%
Pick 6-10 .. 13/45 29%
Pick 11-20.. 6/90 7%
Pick 21/30 8/90 9%

Combined... pick will net at least a NBA starter
Pick 1 ......... 7/9 78%
Pick 2-5 .......22/36 61%
Pick 6-10 .....17/45 39%
Pick 11-20....6/90 7%
Pick 21/30...8/90 9%

CONCLUSION : DRAFT picks efficency value
Pick 1 -----------2 eff-----------(5*24+2*17,5)/9.................= 17,2
Pick 2-5 --------2 eff-----------(9*24+13*17,5)/36.............=12,3
Pick 6-10 ------2 eff-----------(2*24+14*17,5)/45..............=6,9
Pick 11-20-----2 eff-----------(24*1+5*17,5 )/90...............=1,2
Pick 21-30 ----2 eff-----------(8*17,5)/90..........................=1,5
*. Francise players i think 24 efficiency is about average from the top of my head, for NBA starters weighted efficency is more scewed to 15 than 22 so ill use 17,5
NB! 1,4 is not the efficency of the player you draft from that position, its a average value you get from that pick if youre trying to draft a 15+ efficency player (1 in 11 picks nets a NBA starter in current excample 55 of those picks are needed to build a playoff contender, it doesnt mean that you cant draft 9 role players with 90+ efficency combined)

What i read from all of that
Pick 1: Franchise changer!!! /NBA starter/Role player
Pick 2-5: Role player=NBA Starter=Franchise changer... equally
Pick 6-10: Role player/Role player/NBA Starter
Pick 11+: bust/ bust/ bust/ role/ role/ role /role /bust/ bust/ role/ NBA starter

[RunDogGun]

Well two of your franchise players have been forced to retire already.

[thamadkant]

When those players played, and before they retired, they were clearly franchise type players and all-stars.. retiring due to injuries have nothing to do with their basketball talents.

[RunDogGun]

Who said anything about their talent? But please tell me how their talent is currently helping their team win?

You draft lovers crack me up. Just completely ignore all the research that Mooch did, and have fun guys. Maybe you guys can find the next college/high school superstar, who's talent doesn't translate to NBA. Keep rooting for a team to lose. By the way, what if you do find a great player this coming draft, and he brings us to the same 14-16 draft level for the four years he is here? Man you guys will be so depressed.

Or maybe you think this great talent will just shelf his development just to make sure he gets some more high draft picks.

[Miklo]

Who said anything about their talent? But please tell me how their talent is currently helping their team win?

You draft lovers crack me up. Just completely ignore all the research that Mooch did, and have fun guys. Maybe you guys can find the next college/high school superstar, who's talent doesn't translate to NBA. Keep rooting for a team to lose. By the way, what if you do find a great player this coming draft, and he brings us to the same 14-16 draft level for the four years he is here? Man you guys will be so depressed.

Or maybe you think this great talent will just shelf his development just to make sure he gets some more high draft picks.

Why can't a player be considered a drafted franchise-caliber player if they later have to retire early? An injury, or anything else, doesn't go back in time and change that - analyzing the probability that a drafted player will get a severe injury would be a different study that wouldn't correlate with this one. So at least personally I don't think it makes sense to disqualify them as being considered franchise-caliber because of an event that later happened in their career. Neither of those particular injuries were factored into draft position anyway (like they were for guys like DeJuan Blair who's been known since the beginning to have a limited NBA career ahead of him), so it's not even like you can claim it wasn't a fair representation of their talent at the time. I think the point of the thread is seeing how players picked at different points translate their games to the NBA, and as speculative as that idea may be in general, I am comfortable including those guys as franchise-caliber players at those picks.

[RunDogGun]

But is this thread really figuring out the percentage of drafting a starter or franchise player? And if you are looking at body of work, to determine that franchise status, would the fact that they aren't in the league almost right after they get their franchise money be some sort of factor? Don't know.

Is Randolph really a franchise player? What are the qualifications to be labeled a franchise player?

[Beetlejuice]

But is this thread really figuring out the percentage of drafting a starter or franchise player? And if you are looking at body of work, to determine that franchise status, would the fact that they aren't in the league almost right after they get their franchise money be some sort of factor? Don't know.

Is Randolph really a franchise player? What are the qualifications to be labeled a franchise player?

This is not aimed at tanking like everything else, i just wanted to know how valuable are those picks generally.

General is the word here ... and starting to argue over it ... i wouldnt show this to my 4th grade teacher under a presumption of this being a serious research.

Take it what it is a man killing time on wikipedia making subjective assumptions and having fun with numbers (yeah i said it)

[Beetlejuice]

But is this thread really figuring out the percentage of drafting a starter or franchise player? And if you are looking at body of work, to determine that franchise status, would the fact that they aren't in the league almost right after they get their franchise money be some sort of factor? Don't know.

Is Randolph really a franchise player? What are the qualifications to be labeled a franchise player?

I actually pointed out in OP 1) Efficiency 22+ 2) Subjective
Randolph 2010 efficiency 24,4 (20 points and 12 rpg 50% fg)

[thamadkant]

Who said anything about their talent? But please tell me how their talent is currently helping their team win?

You draft lovers crack me up. Just completely ignore all the research that Mooch did, and have fun guys. Maybe you guys can find the next college/high school superstar, who's talent doesn't translate to NBA. Keep rooting for a team to lose. By the way, what if you do find a great player this coming draft, and he brings us to the same 14-16 draft level for the four years he is here? Man you guys will be so depressed.

Or maybe you think this great talent will just shelf his development just to make sure he gets some more high draft picks.

RunDogGun, its very obvious from your posts, you are ANTI-DRAFT or ANTI-ROOKIES or something...

ALL NBA PLAYERS technically (minus the internationals) were drafted.... its the PRIMARY way of getting talent into the league...


In the Past, sure, getting Free Agent stars were easy, but if you look at the new CBA, It benefits teams who drafted their stars to KEEP THEM, They can extend players off rookie contracts to MAX

"Implemented as part of the new 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Derrick Rose rule increases the size of the contract that teams can offer to players coming off of their rookie contract from 25% of the salary cap (~$14.5 million first year) to 30% of the salary cap (~$17.4 million first year) if the player has accomplished any of the following in his first four years in the league:
a) Won an MVP Award
b) Was twice voted as an All-Star starter
c) Was twice named to an All-NBA team (first, second, or third)"

Its much harder now to attract young stars away from their teams who drafted them.... why cant you see this?

And those players who are looking for their 2nd max contracts like Dwight etc, are looking to team up with veterans or established teams with stars so they contend automatically..... they dont want to waste anymore time joining a team without pieces already......

and Suns cannot do a Miami Heat, by signing 3 Max players....

heck, the plan to sign 2 Max players was good idea, but unfortunately, 3-4 other teams have the same plan as the Suns and those teams are playoff teams today... Celtics, Mavs etc will appeal more to those players...

[thamadkant]

Who said anything about their talent? But please tell me how their talent is currently helping their team win?

You draft lovers crack me up. Just completely ignore all the research that Mooch did, and have fun guys. Maybe you guys can find the next college/high school superstar, who's talent doesn't translate to NBA. Keep rooting for a team to lose. By the way, what if you do find a great player this coming draft, and he brings us to the same 14-16 draft level for the four years he is here? Man you guys will be so depressed.

Or maybe you think this great talent will just shelf his development just to make sure he gets some more high draft picks.

also then ask yourself why did you post about players retiring in a thread about proving how valuable draft picks are.

[RunDogGun]

Who said anything about their talent? But please tell me how their talent is currently helping their team win?

You draft lovers crack me up. Just completely ignore all the research that Mooch did, and have fun guys. Maybe you guys can find the next college/high school superstar, who's talent doesn't translate to NBA. Keep rooting for a team to lose. By the way, what if you do find a great player this coming draft, and he brings us to the same 14-16 draft level for the four years he is here? Man you guys will be so depressed.

Or maybe you think this great talent will just shelf his development just to make sure he gets some more high draft picks.

also then ask yourself why did you post about players retiring in a thread about proving how valuable draft picks are.

Because how much value do guys have for a team, if they aren't in the league anymore? Zero!

I am not anti-draft or rookie, what a poor interpretation of what I have written. You go crazy on cutter, for misreading you, and then you try and pigeon hole me? Hypocrite much?

Draft is a crapshoot. Many of the guys listed were traded or left the team that drafted them. So many of these franchise guys were acquired through FA. Your idea, was for us to suck for four years and rebuild through the draft. I think that is insane. You guys talk about the draft like it will be the ONLY way we can rebuild. I think that is naive.

[RunDogGun]

This is not aimed at tanking like everything else, i just wanted to know how valuable are those picks generally.

General is the word here ... and starting to argue over it ... i wouldnt show this to my 4th grade teacher under a presumption of this being a serious research.

Take it what it is a man killing time on wikipedia making subjective assumptions and having fun with numbers (yeah i said it)

I didn't rip you. I just felt that there were pieces missing that would change those numbers, and also felt that the tankers would try to use this to back their insanity. But now that you stated that it is really a messing with numbers thing, hopefully they won't try and back themselves with it.

For example, BLopez was drafted 10th not 15th, not sure if that changes some numbers, and Mayo is not a starter

[Cutter]

It's absurd to say someone is anti-draft or anti-rookie because they don't support intentional tanking as a rebuild strategy. I would love the Suns to get an exceptional young talent in the draft to build around. I am a big fan of Markieff Morris and am rooting for him to continue to develop and I hope he can take the next step in developing his skills.

What I object mightily to, and will continue to argue against, is the concept of "intentional" tanking. The main problem I have with Kant and others is the "intentional" part.

To deconstruct this team to the point where we would suck enough to get a top 1 - 5 pick is dishonest to this team, fans and players. To be as bad as the Bobcats, Wizards or Pistons we would need to get rid of Nash, trade Gortat, hell Dudley can shoot threes so trade him, Frye might get hot so he has to go.....

And then magically, we get a franchise changing player to build around for the next 7+ years because we can extend him to a max deal off of his rookie contract. Well the real world has shown that it doesn't work that way. Teams that rely on rebuilding through the draft like Wizards, Toronto, Bobcats, Pistons, Sacramento, Golden State etc... never get out of rebuilding mode. That's because a high percentage of time these franchise players don't deliver as promised, or turn in to just average prospects.

If the Suns fight to put the best team possible on the floor, get the best players available within the salary cap, but end up tanking hard and through the luck of the ping-pong balls end up getting a top pick I will be ecstatic. I would love Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andre Drummond (not so sure), Barnes, Beal etc....

But to actively advocate tearing down the team to pursue draft prospects is wrong and ultimately doesn't work well as a way to build a team.

[Beetlejuice]

This is not aimed at tanking like everything else, i just wanted to know how valuable are those picks generally.

General is the word here ... and starting to argue over it ... i wouldnt show this to my 4th grade teacher under a presumption of this being a serious research.

Take it what it is a man killing time on wikipedia making subjective assumptions and having fun with numbers (yeah i said it)

I didn't rip you. I just felt that there were pieces missing that would change those numbers, and also felt that the tankers would try to use this to back their insanity. But now that you stated that it is really a messing with numbers thing, hopefully they won't try and back themselves with it.

For example, BLopez was drafted 10th not 15th, not sure if that changes some numbers, and Mayo is not a starter

TY, fixed B. Lopez thing(got him mixed up with Robin would love to mix them up watching him play on the offensive end though). As you look closer at the numbers its more of a anti-tank thread, because tanking to get a 6th pick is ridiculously bad. Top 2 or dont do it.

[Frank Lee]

It's absurd to say someone is anti-draft .......



But to actively advocate tearing down the team to pursue draft prospects is wrong and ultimately doesn't work well as a way to build a team.

Where has this explanation been hiding ?

[thamadkant]

The keepers for me for suns are,

1. Gortat
2. Morris
3. Dudley


Suns keep those players unless an offer that cannot be refused comes along.

And only reason I can justify trading Gortat would be that a replacement big man almost guaranteed to be a star is coming to the suns. A double double big man who values rebounding and defense is indeed difficult to replace.

On trade proposals, as stated only way Gortat gets traded would be for a younger similar player coming in like Horford. Although Horford makes twice the money Gortat is making so unless the other team takes a bad contract like Childress then the Suns keep Gortat. Other reason why i think it's ok to lose Gortat for Horford is because Frye is better as center next to an athletic, quick power forward.

The other only scenario is if the suns get a top 2 pick, which would take Suns pick and Gortat... Only reason is because Suns replace Gortat with a younger, much more skilled, best shot blocker in 15 years, same production as a rookie in Anthony Davis....

And the suns are not much of a team to tear down anyways, apart from the mentioned players above... 4 players on the rotation are 1 year deals at the moment and a couple more expiring.

No one should ever tear down a successful team.... But a team that is evidently going no where is okay to be torn down, keep the keepers and rebuild correctly. This is clear logic that can be applied to anything.

[RunDogGun]

Madman, or whatever you go by now, why do you throw out comments? If I reply to them, you either ignore my returns, or you change the subject. I've asked many questions in my comments to you, and you don't answer them. You ask me a question, I answer it, and then you don't say a thing.

It really makes me question whether you know how to argue, or have a good grasp on what you are trying to base your case on. For example, you based one of your arguments on GSWs last top tyre pick as getting Webber, yet that would have been their third to last top three pick. Then you claim that all of those guys were great players and franchise type guys. Yet when I retort that none of those top guys lead their team to a chip, you say nothing.

You do know that just ignoring my comments doesn't make them go away, right?

[Kerrsed]

This thread made my head hurt.

[RunDogGun]

This thread made my head hurt.

Wait until the Suns game tonight. oh wait, you like the Suns losing, sorry. aspirin works well for headaches.

[Frank Lee]

This thread made my head hurt.

I appreciate analytical viewpoints... but 75% of the time I can only absorb 56% of the content.

I think the OP has confirmed many thoughts... the better the draft pick, the better your chances to draft an impact player.

Genius, I know.


I hope he gets an 'A' on his paper.