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Thought I'd get this started as we will all be looking forward to it this summer. Here is what's on the free agent horizon for the Suns

2013 Committed salary = $26.8M
$7.26M Gortat
$6.0M Frye
$4.25M Dudley
$4.25M Warrick
$2.01M Morris
$3.00M 2012 1st round draft pick

2013 Waived and Renounced players
Telfair (Waived, releases $1.57M cap)
Childress (Amnestied, releases $6.5M cap)
Lopez (Renounced, releases $8.59 cap hold)
Hill (Renounced, releases $9.75M cap hold)
Brooks (Renounced, releases $6.05M cap hold)
Brown (Renounced, releases $4.2M cap hold)
Price (Renounced, releases $0.85M cap hold)
Redd (Renounced, releases $0.85M cap hold)

ESTIMATED NBA 2013 SALARY CAP = $60.5M
SUNS TOTAL 2013 SALARY = $26.8M
SUNS CAP SPACE = $33.7M


The big problem to consider is do you renounce team rights to Nash? If the answer is no the Suns only have $18M in cap space because Nash's cap hold is $17M. If yes does he view it is a slight and signs elsewhere? Do we even consider Nash as one the top free agents to sign this summer? Will he take $8M per year for two years? Is he still worth that amount? If he is a free agent we want to keep we need to sign him soon so we can free up his cap hold!!!

If we signed him for $8m that leaves $25.7M for two top free agents. We would have another $3M for a mid-level exception and then minimum salary for the rest of the bench. Would it be bad to keep Grant Hill on under the $3M exception?

Our 2013 Lineup
Nash?/FA
Rookie/FA
FA/Dudley/Warrick
FA/Morris
Gortat/Frye

Let the discussions about resigning Nash and which free agents we should go after begin.

P.S. We amnesty Childress instead of Warrick because Warrick is basically an expiring contract after 2013.

Unless this is part fantasy, I want to hear the reason people think Sarver is going to just give $21 million to Chilldress to go away.

It isn't happening this coming offseason, so let's just take him off that list. Remember, Sarver is the guy that wouldn't pay tax to keep KT. In fact, that summer he(and our GM), traded Jones $2.9 million contract, Rudy Fernandez to clear some cap room. So we really would have only paid an extra $5.1 million to keep KT. But instead we rushed to trade KT, giving up two unprotected firsts along with him.

So in the end, we gave up two of our best defenders and three draft picks just to save $8 million. All this while we still had a window open for a chip.

Yet now, when we have no shot at a chip, and a possible chance of sucking for many years, he is all of a sudden just going to shellout $21 million, plus the salary of whoever we sign in his place.

I still don't see that happening this offseason. Maybe next year, when it will only be $14 million, and if he signs somewhere else for let's say $1.5 million for two years, he will only pay around $11 million. But even then, it would have to be for someone great.

Keeping Nash is a no-brainer if he wants to stay. I think we can sign him for 8-10 million / 2 years and maybe a player option. But we really need a backup point guard who can run the show for 20 minutes. Looking at the free agent class I only see three realistic options:

Goran Dragic / Delonte West / Aaron Brooks

Other point guards like Kirk Hinrich or Raymond Felton would be too expensive and I highly doubt that they want to play behind Nash. Hinrich would be the best fit, though. I don't think that our FO will bring Dragic back. West would be a nice addition, but our FO looks at the character. Brooks is the obvious choice here in my opinion.

Now, we need a starting two guard to bring some relief for Nash:

Nick Young / Courtney Lee / O.J. Mayo / Eric Gordon

Eric Gordon is my favorit target here and he's a player where I would spend a max. contract. But we would only get him if New Orleans hs highly concers about his health. I'd take the other players at the right price. But there are some other players who are worth a deeper look:

C.J. Miles / Terrence Williams / James Anderson / Landry Fields

Miles, Williams and Anderson are young players and could be had for cheap. I love Landry Fields and I'd kill to see him in our jersey. Fields and Dudley off the bench would be great but he likely will sty with the Knicks. Houston and San Antonio declined the options of Williams and Anderson so I would like to see one of them on our roster.

I don't see any problem at SF if we decide to keep Hill. I think he will be a Bruce Bowen type player for us. If Dudley goes to the bench as our backup small forward we're set and Childress will propably give us some depth (as RDG said). If Grant decides to join a contender I would have no problem with Dudley starting for him.

I don't see any chance to get a power forward through free agency who would be an upgrade over Frye/Morris. I don't know but guys like Darell Arthur, Antawn Jamison or Carl Landry could be options. I'd like to see Jamison on a one year deal. Getting a PF through the draft would be the best option (Thomas Robinson?).

Resign Ronnie Price. He's solid third string point guard with great defense and decent attitude.

I also think that we should take a look at Greg Oden if he would sign a cheap deal with us.

My dream roster for next season would be:

PG: Steve Nash / Goran Dragic / Ronnie Price
SG: Eric Gordon / Landry Fields (C.J. Miles; Terrence Williams)
SF: Grant Hill / Jared Dudley / Josh Childress
PF: Draft / Darell Arthur; Antawn Jamison; Carl Landry) / Markieff Morris / Hakim Warrick
C: Marcin Gortat / Channing Frye / Greg Oden

Would be a solid roster with young talent and still future fliexibility (Nash, Grant, Warrick and Jamison would have expiring contracts)

Unless the Suns need the money to sign a major FA they won't amnesty Childress. Why pay someone to not play and then have to pay a replacement(likely some vet min scrub) to take his place. This isn't about Sarver being cheap, it's about not being stupid.

Well, this is all speculating since there will probably be quite a bit of activity before the trade deadline. Our team may look drastically different in the next couple days/weeks.

To get a high quality guy we will probably end up overpaying, guys I'd like us to target first are : Nic Batum and/or Eric Gordon. However, there will probably be a lot of interest for them and we may have to offer a near max for either. If we trade Gortat and I'm not suggesting we do, but we should than make a move for Roy Hibbert as well. I'd also like us to go hard at Ramon Sessions, the guy looks like a good fit for our system and could be a great back-up / occasional starter to Nash. Aaron Brooks is a big question mark as we will either have to overpay to keep him here or let him go for nothing. If (big IF) Nash is gone, than we may throw money at Aaron Brooks. However, with the amount of money he'll be demanding, I doubt he'll be brought back as a back-up. In all honesty, I'd hope we just stick with Nash and realize that we lost the Dragic/pick for Brooks trade.

Other Potential interesting guys for our system (for the right price of course, i.e. cheap) : Jerryd Bayless, OJ Mayo, Landry Fields, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire, Chase Budinger, JJ Hickson, Michael Beasley, Jason Thompson, Anthony Magic Randolph, Ersan Ilyasova, Lou Amundson, Jeremy Evans, Greg Oden, Omer Asik.

I fully expect this list and our needs/wants to change in the coming weeks as the trade deadline will probably be quite active this year.

RunDogGun wrote:Unless this is part fantasy, I want to hear the reason people think Sarver is going to just give $21 million to Chilldress to go away.

I'll give you a few reasons

1) Contrary to what people think Sarver want's to win.
2) $20M is chump change over three years ... Washington amenstied Arenas and will owe him over $60M
3) Sarver doesn't make money running the Suns ... think banking and real estate. Rich people figure out how to make money even in the tough economic times.
4) It's a business loss/write-off

If the Suns need the money to sign Nash and two other big free agents then it will happen.

bigfoot wrote:If the Suns need the money to sign Nash and two other big free agents then it will happen.

Despite what you think about Sarver willing to take a loss(which is highly debatable), the Suns will not amnesty Childress until they have agreed upon a major FA acquisition and need the money. They aren't going to amnesty him then hope they manage to land some FA.

If your goal is just to show how much cap the Suns could potentially have, then you can also include using the stretch rule on Frye(again not going to happen until the money is needed if ever).

Isn't Paul Millsap a FA? I would love to see the Suns go after him.

snowthedirtbub wrote:Isn't Paul Millsap a FA? I would love to see the Suns go after him.

Why?

Morris = Younger Millsap.

Love affair with Milsap has to end...

Milsap is a tremendous player, but undersized at 6'8. He isnt Charles Barkley nor he is a Karl Malone who is an elite scorer everywhere.

And as Kerrsed said.... Suns have Morris who IMHO... is a 15 point 9 rebound 1.5 blocks a game PF as a starter or Off-the bench as long as he gets ~30-34 minutes a game.


Getting Milsap means spending more money on a spot which isnt a MUST fix....

Besides, Suns have not really made public their draft intentions, PF, SF, SG??


Basically, I think Morris needs as much role as the team's PF to develop quicker..... getting Milsap would be expensive and detrimental to Morris's growth.

With that said, Milsap is a heck of a player....



My ideal off-season
- Get Pick 6, hopefully MKG is available.
- Extend Nash to a 2 year, slightly over MLE type contract (7 million a year)
- Sign Anthony Randolph to a 3 year 5 million a year contract to backup PF and Center... sixth man type role.
- Have a look at Oden...
- NOT COMMIT BIG LONG contracts to non-franchise changing players.
- Save Cap Space for 2013 and see who's available.... James Harden etc.

bigfoot wrote:

RunDogGun wrote:Unless this is part fantasy, I want to hear the reason people think Sarver is going to just give $21 million to Chilldress to go away.

I'll give you a few reasons

1) Contrary to what people think Sarver want's to win.
2) $20M is chump change over three years ... Washington amenstied Arenas and will owe him over $60M
3) Sarver doesn't make money running the Suns ... think banking and real estate. Rich people figure out how to make money even in the tough economic times.
4) It's a business loss/write-off

If the Suns need the money to sign Nash and two other big free agents then it will happen.

It was ORL that amnestied Arenas, and that was done so they could do their best to keep Howard in Florida. Washington could/should have amnestied Lewis, but what was the point? They weren't going to fill that slot with a big FA.

If Sarver wanted to win, he had a better chance of doing that the summer we gave away Jones, KT, and three draft picks, all to avoid paying $8 million in tax. Wouldn't he had just been able to write that off? And that was before the real estate and banking hit rock bottom. One would think that it is even tougher to be giving away money now.

Like PHX#7 said, it isn't happening, unless we already have a top FA lined up and we need that money. My thought is it would have to be DWill and Howard to make that move. And if he only needed $4 million, Warrick would be the guy before Chilldress.

Didn't we also get $3 million in that deal(James Jones and Rudy Fernandez) with Portland? So really, Sarver would have only had to pay $2+ million to keep KT and two unprotected first. Never mind, I retract my statement then. He will totally give Chilldress $21 million to ffff off, because all Sarver cares about is winning.

phx#7 wrote:If your goal is just to show how much cap the Suns could potentially have, then you can also include using the stretch rule on Frye(again not going to happen until the money is needed if ever).

Actually you can't use the stretch on Frye. It can only be used on players signed under the new collective bargaining agreement

In response to Arenas getting amnestied, it had everything to do with the fact that Orlando was over the tax. For them it was a choice between paying him 20mil to not play or 40mil to play this year. The Suns are well under the tax range, as is every team with a bad contract that didn't use the amnesty rule.

Just like the Knicks waited until they got the FA they wanted(Chandler) before using their amnesty rule(Billups), so will every other team trying to generate extra cap.

bigfoot wrote:

phx#7 wrote:If your goal is just to show how much cap the Suns could potentially have, then you can also include using the stretch rule on Frye(again not going to happen until the money is needed if ever).

Actually you can't use the stretch on Frye. It can only be used on players signed under the new collective bargaining agreement

I wasn't aware of that, seems odd it works that way though.

RunDogGun wrote:Didn't we also get $3 million in that deal(James Jones and Rudy Fernandez) with Portland? So really, Sarver would have only had to pay $2+ million to keep KT and two unprotected first. Never mind, I retract my statement then. He will totally give Chilldress $21 million to ffff off, because all Sarver cares about is winning.

You forget rookie contracts cost $1M+ and when you are over the cap they cost twice as much. The difference between now and then is the Suns will be way under luxury tax. Sure Sarver would have had financial problems with a $80M+ payroll 4-5 years ago. He had just purchased the Suns. Next year his team salary might be at $70M including a Childress amnesty on the books. Completely different scenario and making the playoffs increases revenue earned and the value of the franchise.

Still I agree unless the Suns are getting major free agents they will probably hold onto Childress. I don't see them overpaying for all-star or near all-star talent. Then next year we can look forward to another losing season, Nash bolting to another team, and a top 5 pick in 2013.

One last thing to consider about Childress. Keeping him on the books and going after big name free agents would almost certainly put the Suns into a tax paying situation in 2014 or at the latest 2015. Warrick will be long gone before then and it makes more sense to save amnesty for Childress.

bigfoot wrote:

RunDogGun wrote:Unless this is part fantasy, I want to hear the reason people think Sarver is going to just give $21 million to Chilldress to go away.

I'll give you a few reasons

1) Contrary to what people think Sarver want's to win.
2) $20M is chump change over three years ... Washington amenstied Arenas and will owe him over $60M
3) Sarver doesn't make money running the Suns ... think banking and real estate. Rich people figure out how to make money even in the tough economic times.
4) It's a business loss/write-off

If the Suns need the money to sign Nash and two other big free agents then it will happen.

1) Everyone wants to win because winning = revenue
2) Unlike Washington, Childress' deal isn't a cap killer. It does take away some flexibility but not by much.
3) Once again, whether Childress get's amnestied or not, Sarver *still* has to pay him. His salary just doesn't get counted towards the cap.
4) Why write something off when there is still use for it and you're still paying for it? Unless we need his roster spot (unlikely) or he's the difference between getting a star FA and a mid-tier FA than I don't see him getting amnestied.

Not totally 100% with the rules of the amnesty but I believe you can only use it on a player that signed a deal before this current CBA, so that should encompass traded players too (I think). Which means we're not really forced to use it.

Actually going back and looking at the financial side of the Kurt Thomas trade. If the Suns didn't pull off the trade Sarver pays almost $90M versus $73M. That's a $17M swing.

bigfoot wrote:Actually going back and looking at the financial side of the Kurt Thomas trade. If the Suns didn't pull off the trade Sarver pays almost $90M versus $73M. That's a $17M swing.

Our salary wasn't that much even including Jones and KT, it was closer to $80 million. And you can't include Rudy's salary, because he played another year overseas. But you can count the contract we gave to Brian Skinner to fill the spot that KT left, but do you count that as extra money spent, or against what you would have spent to keep KT?

Either way, I still don't see this owner giving Chilldress $21 million to walk, and since the only case we see it happening is for a big named FA, like DWill or Howard, it most likely won't happen.

Honestly with this owner, I could see him re-signing Nash, and trotting him out there as our big FA signing. Like he did with Amare after we sold our draft picks.

bigfoot wrote:
One last thing to consider about Childress. Keeping him on the books and going after big name free agents would almost certainly put the Suns into a tax paying situation in 2014 or at the latest 2015. Warrick will be long gone before then and it makes more sense to save amnesty for Childress.

The argument isn't the Suns won't amnesty him, it's that there is no point in using amnesty unless his money is needed. If the Suns need to amnesty him to make room for a big FA I believe they will.

I honestly don't see how you can possibly predict the Suns will be anywhere near tax range in 2 years. Who exactly do you think the Suns are signing? And who currently on the roster is going to demand near max money on an extension?