RealGM

I created this thread with one goal in mind - to determine the highest and best use of our pick (#13) and our cap space.

So to begin, let's analyze our cap situation in order to better understand what we have to work with:

PG -
SG -
SF - Dudley ($4,250,000) / Childress ($6,500,000)
PF - Morris ($2,005,560) / Warrick ($4,000,000)
C - Gortat ($7,258,960) / Frye ($6,000,000)

These are the players we are contractually obligated to. Then consider the cap holds for #13 ($1,599,300) and Telfair's waived contract ($550,000). Note that I have not inlcuded Lopez's QO. Additionally, the Suns are assumed to have waived all cap holds and rights to players.

Your total salary for cap purposes at the beginning of free agency is $32,163,820 which (assuming a $58M soft cap) allows the Suns $25,836,180 to spend in free agency.

With that under our belts, and after looking at our team sitaution, it seems like the highest and best use of our pick and cap space is at both guard positions.

So, what do you do? What are your thoughts? I will update the OP with prevailing themes (giving the nod to the poster, for fun), etc. Let's see what the brain power on the Suns board can come up with and how close our theories get to the real thing.

1-new owner.

2-New front office.

3-point guard.

4-shooting guard.

5-small forward.

6-power forward.

7-center(IF we decide to move gortat).

8-New coach???

Not really the exercise - looking for productive input.

GOK, better look for a new team.

SS, we certainly need a (backup) point guard and I'm 100% sure that this guy will be Telfair since they only have to pay one million more in order to keep him.

I don't think they'll waive Bassy, since he's on a relatively cheap contract and the FO seems to really like what he brought as a backup(although he was horrible for most of the year).

Assuming we waive all other cap holds, you're right, we do have a pretty decent amount of money to work with.

However, the Blabby said that they'd match most offers on Fropez. I think his QO is around 6-7 million dollars, so I'd subtract 6 mill from that #. That leaves us with about 19.8 million.

If Nash re-signs, that'll probably take another $10 mill off our cap space.
If Hill re-signs, I'm hoping it'll be for <2 million, so let's subtract that too.

At this point you're left with $7.8 million. Not enough to really improve the team this offseason. Of course, if there's someone you really, really like this summer, then you amnesty Chilly and then you have enough for an almost-max contract offer I think. However, aside from D-Will and Gordon, there's nobody worth that kind of money this summer, because this FA market is turrible.

The interesting thing is that the only way that Nash re-signs is if we actually DID improve....so I don't really know how this is going to work out. This implies that he'll be waiting for us to improve the roster before he commits, but the team is going to want to get a good sense of his plans early on in FA so they know which path to go down. So we'll be waiting for Nash, and he'll be waiting for us...it seems like a game of poker where everybody loses(except for Steve, I guess.)

If Nash walks, then the team faces a totally different scenario. All thoughts of "combuilding"(rebuilding+competing) go out the window, and they officially start over.

It seems like an untenable situation. The logistics are going to be very, very complicated. This offseason is one of the most crucial in our franchise's history. The last time we had this kind of space and flexibility was 2010, and we all know how colossally we screwed that up.

All I know is that I wouldn't want to have Blabby's job right now, because the pressure is immense.

I'll start then.

I'm assuming we retain Nash at 3yrs, $30M. I think if the Suns try, there's no way we lose out on keeping Steve. After looking at our roster and deciding that I'm unhappy with our PF rotation, I offer Kevin Garnett a 1yr $15M contract. Obviously assumes he doesn't stay in BOS. I re-sign Michael Redd with half of the MiniMLE. Finally, I buy one of Cleveland's early 2nd rounders and draft Tony Wroten.

I think the Suns take BPA SG/SF at #13 and start him. Switch Dudley to SG if you draft a SF.

PG - Nash ($10,000,000) / Wroten ($500,000)
SG - #13 ($1,599,300) / Redd ($1,250,000)
SF - Dudley ($4,250,000) / Childress ($6,500,000)
PF - Garnett ($15,000,000) / Morris ($2,005,560) / Warrick ($4,000,000)
C - Gortat ($7,258,960) / Frye ($6,000,000)

Save the amnesty for Childress for the following season. Decline Warrick's team option. You have $25.8M to spend in one of the best FA classes in a while. Draft Well.

That's my strategy.

Ideally, we sign Gordon to an offer sheet, NO doesn't match, we re-sign Nash, and let Lopez walk (to afford Gordon and Nash).

Since the draft is before free agency, we go for best swingman on the board (best outside shooter, hopefully Ross or Lamb) and if we get one of those guys, we can maybe not necessarily bank on Gordon.

If those guys are gone, we go for best pg available to play backup (Marshall), Rivers (to hopefully play 6th man type role), or possibly the best sf on the board (Miller, Harkless or someone like that if they look good in workouts).

Dudley can play either swing position and can shoot the 3 well, so that gives us flexibility.

You are correct in that this is going to be a very complicated picture. The way the NBA does its accounting for free agency purposes is to assign cap holds for free agents, draft choices and when necessary for empty roster spots (rare). You then add the cap holds to the committed player salaries and if that figure above the salary cap, but is sufficiently below the tax threshold, you add in the MLE and LLE. If you are above the tax threshold you get the MMLE and if using the MLE would put you above the tax threshold you become an apron team. All teams that are free agent players presently have salary and cap holds the place them above the salary cap and most above the tax threshold at this snapshot and they can change status numerous times depending on what moves they make at a particular time. It is a vey dynamic situation that can change in a matter of hours.

The amount assigned of cap holds depends on the salary of the just completed contract its relationship to the mean salary and where the player is in their career. For example, Lopez - a restricted free agent with QO of $4MM has a cap hold of $7+MM. Nash has a cap hold of $17MM. Nicholas Batum has a hold of about $6MM. As you can see sometimes the holds bear a relationship to the market and sometimes they do not. Cap holds go away when a player signs with his existing team, another team or are renounced. The Suns are presently at $82 MM in committed salaries ($31MM) and holds ($51MM).

Teams do not generally renounce their cap holds until it comes time to spend the money. This is for a variety of reason, but he main one is that when a team renounces, it loses BIrd rights and if it renounces cap holds and drops too far under the cap, it loses exemptions and then can only resign a player if he fits under the cap or falls into an exemption. That is why I had to laugh at the ignorance of the column that trumpeted that the Suns were going to waive Hill and Nash on June 1 to free cap holds.

When you sign another teams free agent, you have to actually clear the cap space before signing the player. That is why the order of a teams reaching agreement with free agents becomes critical. For example If the Suns want to sign Gordon to a $12MM deal they have to clear the cap space through signing players you want to keep at their market value to bring your sum of cap holds and committed salary to about $46MM. Because Gordon is an RFA, it becomes treacherous for the Suns because they lose the MLE and Bird Rights for the players hey renounce to get there with no guarantee NOH will not match. Wiff on a RFA and you have created other issues.

Sun Scorched wrote:I'll start then.

I'm assuming we retain Nash at 3yrs, $30M. I think if the Suns try, there's no way we lose out on keeping Steve. After looking at our roster and deciding that I'm unhappy with our PF rotation, I offer Kevin Garnett a 1yr $15M contract. Obviously assumes he doesn't stay in BOS. I re-sign Michael Redd with half of the MiniMLE. Finally, I buy one of Cleveland's early 2nd rounders and draft Tony Wroten.

I think the Suns take BPA SG/SF at #13 and start him. Switch Dudley to SG if you draft a SF.

PG - Nash ($10,000,000) / Wroten ($500,000)
SG - #13 ($1,599,300) / Redd ($1,250,000)
SF - Dudley ($4,250,000) / Childress ($6,500,000)
PF - Garnett ($15,000,000) / Morris ($2,005,560) / Warrick ($4,000,000)
C - Gortat ($7,258,960) / Frye ($6,000,000)

Save the amnesty for Childress for the following season. Decline Warrick's team option. You have $25.8M to spend in one of the best FA classes in a while. Draft Well.

That's my strategy.

I assume this measn letting Lopez walk.

jcsunsfan wrote:

Sun Scorched wrote:I'll start then.

I'm assuming we retain Nash at 3yrs, $30M. I think if the Suns try, there's no way we lose out on keeping Steve. After looking at our roster and deciding that I'm unhappy with our PF rotation, I offer Kevin Garnett a 1yr $15M contract. Obviously assumes he doesn't stay in BOS. I re-sign Michael Redd with half of the MiniMLE. Finally, I buy one of Cleveland's early 2nd rounders and draft Tony Wroten.

I think the Suns take BPA SG/SF at #13 and start him. Switch Dudley to SG if you draft a SF.

PG - Nash ($10,000,000) / Wroten ($500,000)
SG - #13 ($1,599,300) / Redd ($1,250,000)
SF - Dudley ($4,250,000) / Childress ($6,500,000)
PF - Garnett ($15,000,000) / Morris ($2,005,560) / Warrick ($4,000,000)
C - Gortat ($7,258,960) / Frye ($6,000,000)

Save the amnesty for Childress for the following season. Decline Warrick's team option. You have $25.8M to spend in one of the best FA classes in a while. Draft Well.

That's my strategy.

I assume this measn letting Lopez walk.

Other solutions can be arranged

JDLAW wrote:
Teams do not generally renounce their cap holds until it comes time to spend the money. This is for a variety of reason, but he main one is that when a team renounces, it loses BIrd rights and if it renounces cap holds and drops too far under the cap, it loses exemptions and then can only resign a player if he fits under the cap or falls into an exemption. That is why I had to laugh at the ignorance of the column that trumpeted that the Suns were going to waive Hill and Nash on June 1 to free cap holds.

From the article you're referring to:

In general, "Bird Rights" give the advantage to the player's current team. A team with "Bird Rights" on a player can offer one more year (5 vs. 4) and higher raises (7.5% vs. 4.5%) than any other NBA team. In the new CBA, even sign-and-trades must now be at the lower numbers rather than the higher. Only 4 years with 4.5% raises on sign-and-trades now.

In Steve Nash's case, "Bird Rights" are likely a non-issue. Nash's last contract, when he was a young 35, went for 3 years with a DECLINING salary. Going forward, he is asking for a 3-year deal and, with presumably diminishing skills, there is no reason to expect Nash's next contract to include raises either.

Under those parameters, "Bird Rights" mean nothing to the Suns or Nash.

So now I am confused. Does it matter if the Suns retain Nash's Bird rights? I can understand with players like Lopez/Brooks, but it doesn't seem as though Nash's potential contract will utilize any of the benefits that are included with the Suns having his Bird Rights.

Also, there was a thread on BSOTS that is pretty much identical to this topic: http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2012/ ... /cap-space

The article and the comments are a great point for discussion.

Well, looks like we are resigning Nash to his 10 million dollar salary regardless whether he stays or not (S&T) so you have to take that into account. So your really looking at 15 mil with the option to amnesty Childress for additional space.

For the draft, I think its agreed we need a guard. Lamb or Rivers, one should be available.

Then, sign Michael Beasley to a reasonable contract. He is another go-to guy and someone who can really put points on the board regardless if Nash stays or not. He would be the new starting PF, because he plays much better there and we have a hole to fill. Morris backs him up. Not sure how much he will make on the open market, 10-11 mil per?

Now your looking at 5 mil left, so you amnesty Chilly, and re-sign Hill.

We still need a starting 2 after that, I don't really like the pickings in FA. Gordon will cost to much and Mayo is overrated. 'Maybe just re-up Redd and let him teach the rookie the ropes.

Let Lopez walk (he is not worth that QO) and the last move would be to sign Bayless to a reasonable deal, with the money left. Our line-up would look like...

Nash/Bayless
Lamb (or Rivers)/ Redd
Hill (or Gee)/Dudley
Beasley/Morris/Warrick
Gortat/Frye

There you go, a decent line-up that can make some noise in the playoffs with youth to take over after Nash and Hill are gone.

Rsavaj

It does matter, which is why you are not seeing the team renounce Nash's rights. Renouncing him does absolutely nothing beneficial at this time. You have to do the math and apply the rules. If you renounce Nash at this time, the sum of cap holds and committed salaries would still be about $65MM well over the salary cap. At this figure and without Bird rights there could be no sign and trade with another team unless you renounce enough other cap holds until you get the sum of committed salaries and cap holds below the salary cap by the amount of the proposed contract for the free agent. At that point you lose exemptions and all other Bird rights of players you might want to hold on to.

Assume the Suns do what the author of that article suggests and renounces Hill and Nash, the Suns would be right at the salary cap about $55-56 MM (salaries and cap holds), but still with the MLE. At this figure, you would not be able go over the cap to sign Nash and/or Hill without using an exemption or renouncing numerous other free agents that have cap holds on the Suns salary picture. If you want to free up space to sign free agents and keep Nash and Hill, you have to do one of two things: 1) enter contracts with Nash and Hill (and possibly Lopez) at which point their cap holds become committed salaries at amounts less than the substantial cap holds (collectively they have $26MM for both) or 2) have to have agreements that Nash and Hill and will take what ever is left under the cap after you make renouncements and sign the free agent.

It not as easy as some on this board make it out to be. Some are still playing by the pre 1998-99 rules. It comes down to the order of how you do things and it is a very dynamic and fluid situation. You are very astute in commenting that Babby and Blanks have a formidable challenge.

For everyone's benefit, our current cap holds:

Steve Nash - $17,533,593
Grant Hill - $9,750,000
Robin Lopez - $7,156,505
Shannon Brown - $4,200,000
#15 pick - $1,599,300
Ronnie Price - $854,389
Michael Redd - $854,389
Aaron Brooks * - $5,041,730
Jalen Rose * - $1,851,103
Gordan Giricek * - $854,389
Eric Piatkowski * - $854,389

JDLAW wrote:Rsavaj

It does matter, which is why you are not seeing the team renounce Nash's rights. Renouncing him does absolutely nothing beneficial at this time. You have to do the math and apply the rules. If you renounce Nash at this time, the sum of cap holds and committed salaries would still be about $65MM well over the salary cap. At this figure and without Bird rights there could be no sign and trade with another team unless you renounce enough other cap holds until you get the sum of committed salaries and cap holds below the salary cap by the amount of the proposed contract for the free agent. At that point you lose exemptions and all other Bird rights of players you might want to hold on to.

Assume the Suns do what the author of that article suggests and renounces Hill and Nash, the Suns would be right at the salary cap about $55-56 MM (salaries and cap holds), but still with the MLE. At this figure, you would not be able go over the cap to sign Nash and/or Hill without using an exemption or renouncing numerous other free agents that have cap holds on the Suns salary picture. If you want to free up space to sign free agents and keep Nash and Hill, you have to do one of two things: 1) enter contracts with Nash and Hill (and possibly Lopez) at which point their cap holds become committed salaries at amounts less than the substantial cap holds (collectively they have $26MM for both) or 2) have to have agreements that Nash and Hill and will take what ever is left under the cap after you make renouncements and sign the free agent.

It not as easy as some on this board make it out to be. Some are still playing by the pre 1998-99 rules. It comes down to the order of how you do things and it is a very dynamic and fluid situation. You are very astute in commenting that Babby and Blanks have a formidable challenge.

Ah, okay. That clears it up nicely. Thanks for the well-written and thought-out explanation.

The Suns would need to retain Nash's rights in order to S&T him to another team.

Whats with the Bassy hate? He was a very solid player for us throughout the season.

ginobiliflops wrote:Whats with the Bassy hate? He was a very solid player for us throughout the season.

He had one good month, the rest of the time he shot below 40%. He sucks.