Strike now, or wait? A primer on the Suns assets.

[rsavaj]

Great article at Bright Side by Dave King that sums up and lays out our options:

http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/ ... e-in-place

I'll post some excerpts, but you guys should really read the whole thing:

Our current assets
6 first-rounders in the next three years (5 unprotected)
plus $6.3 million in cap space (second-most in the league) - very big for luxury tax payers
plus $9 million in expiring deals (Johnson, O'Neal, Telfair, Zeller, Tucker, Garrett)
plus $9.25 million in candidates for the "stretch" provision (Brown, Beasley) whose future years can be "stretched" upon release to save another room under the cap for years to come, equating to a cap hold of about $2.25 million in 2013-14 and $1.75 million in 2014-15 if both are released
Jared Dudley ($4.25 million), Marcin Gortat ($7.25 million) and Goran Dragic ($7.5 million) who produce at or better than their contract value. Could be very coveted

It's quite possible the Suns hit the break at 12-41 on a 20-game losing streak.

Factoring in those draft picks and guaranteed salaries, the Suns will have $10 million to spend on a high-end free agent if they do not add salary this season by the trade deadline. If they keep Tucker (which they should), make that $9.5 million.

But they could easily have more.

If they release a player or two that was signed under the new CBA (Beasley, Brown), the Suns can lower their 2013-14 cap hit by another $5 million more.

That's now as much as $15 million to spend PLUS three first-round draft picks, as long as they don't add salary at the trade deadline next month.

Should the Suns add a big name now via trade and forego what's likely a dry free agent market?

Or go with their current conservation plan, and add two big players to the current roster (big free agent plus top-5 pick) and make a playoff run in 2013-14?

Or, should they start all over, and maybe sit in lottery land for another half-dozen seasons?

Again, hit the link for an in-depth analysis and discussion of the three options presented above: http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/ ... e-in-place

[rsavaj]

This was my take:

Option B sounds like the best plan, but the one major hitch(for me) is that there’s not really a FA that I want to spend big money on this summer: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/85896 ... -2013-2014

The only players I would offer double digit money to this summer would be:

Josh Smith,
Chris Paul,
Dwight Howard,
and maaaaaybe Paul Milsap or Nikola Pekovic.

Sure, there are other players “available”(younger guys like OJ Mayo, a bunch of old dudes as well), but I don’t want to see them blow their cap space on a bunch of role players like they did in 2010.

I’m fine with sucking for one more year. The 2014 draft is supposed to absolutely phenomenal; people are saying that Ender Wiggins is a once in a lifetime prospect that’s worth tanking for, and the rest of his class is pretty stellar as well.

Also, if you keep that cap space for 2014, you have a much larger pool of FAs to choose from. As far as potential building blocks go, the big names are:

John Wall
Derrick Favors
DeMarcus Cousins
Carmelo(ETO)
LeBron(ETO)
Bosh(ETO)
Erick Bledsoe
Andrew Bogut
Greg Monroe

And then there are a bunch of old vets to choose from if you want:

Pierce(probably retires a Celtic)
Dirk(probably retires a Mav)
Kobe(probably retires a Laker)
Duncan(definitely retires a Spur)
Pau(looks completely finished)
Z-Bo(Player Option)
Wade(ETO)
Amare(ETO)

Not to mention other young guys like Hayward, Deng, Granger, Rudy(P), Sanders, Evan Turner, Kyle Lowry, Ed Davis, etc.

I’m not in the “make trades just to make trades” camp, but I think Jim has brought up how this team has a pattern of not trading players at their peak value, and instead, trading them for scraps, which is why I’m absolutely in favor of trading Gortat. He will be a free agent next summer, and not one that I want to tie up a lot of money in. If we can move Gortat for current prospects or 2014 draft picks, I would do it without hesitation. Since I don’t think we’ll be landing an impact player this summer, I don’t think we’re going to be in the playoffs next year either, so building towards 2014 makes a lot of sense to me.

Hopefully Frye comes back healthy so we have a starting C. If he can’t, then best of luck and good health to him. We’ll have to apply for a medical exemption to get his cap space, unless he medically retires, I think.

I know Dragic is struggling right now, but I’m in no rush to trade him. Keep him, Dudley, Tucker, Marshall(gotta see what we have in this kid, even if it’s…nothing), Markieff.

Scola will be here by default, unless you can move him to a team that needs him for something of value this summer.

Wes will be gone, and I’ll miss his smile forever.

I think Bassy is gone no matter what this summer(I have a feeling they’ll give Kendall the backup PG role next season), and I don’t think Jermaine re-signs here, so it makes a lot of sense to shop both of them around the deadline and see what you can get. There has to be a contender out there who could use backup PG and backup C help.

Brown is meh. I don’t like him, but he’s so cheap so I don’t really care.

That leaves Beasley. I think he’s an absolutely rubbish player, but there’s no need to use the stretch provision on him this summer if you don’t need the cap space. I would rather give the dude one last, final chance next season…his fourth or fifth “clean slate”, as it were. I know that even when he was putting up 19 ppg on 45% FG in Minny, he wasn’t really helping them win, but he wasn’t as absolutely terrible as he is now; I would welcome a return to that production.

Either two things happen: A)he finally figures it out and starts playing decently(unlikely), or B)he fizzles out and brings famine and desolation to our team, leading to us sucking again next season. I’m okay with either option, because the first means that we finally have a decent prospect in Beas, and the second means that we’ll get a great lotto pick in an incredible draft.

As far as our administrative staff goes, I’d like Blabby to get outta here ASAP. I’m not against hiring a new coach, either, but if there’s not a clear upgrade available, I’m okay sticking with Gentry.

So, the “too long, didn’t read” version:
1) Don’t make any trades this season for expensive role players
2) Try to trade Bassy and Jermaine for some value(a pick or two) at the trade deadline
3) If there’s a decent offer for Gortat, you take it. If not, you shop him this offseason and try to trade him for a package that involves a 2014 pick
4) Don’t blow your cap space this summer, as there’s nobody worth it
5) If you can get something of value for Scola, you do it
6) Don’t waive Beasley unless you are going to need cap space this summer
7) Draft the BEST PLAYERS AVAILABLE with all of our picks this draft; don’t draft for need
8) Repeat the process for the 2014 draft which is much more esteemed
9) Use your cap space in 2014 with a larger and better talent pool to choose from
10) ???
11) CHAMPIONSHIP!

It sounds a little bit like option C, but I’m not trying to strip the team down completely.

Whatever they choose…I hope they choose wisely.

[RunDogGun]

The article was decent. I actually wish it would have gone into deeper depth giving strong direction,but I'm nitpicking.

I know this will come as a shocker, but for me Gentry has to go. If we are cutting ties with most of our roster, he has to go as well. Otherwise, I just feel like we are spinning our wheels, just with possibly better tires.

If we keep Beasley, than either Morris or Scola has to be moved. We either play Beasley at the four, or don't play him at all. Put decent shooters around him, and ask him to play a more point forward role, and at last resort look for his own shot. Also hire his mentor that he had this past summer to the coaching staff. A cheap coach that could possibly get the best out of him.

Rsavaj, do you think we explore trading one or two (if we have three) of our firsts (not our own) on draft day for a future 2014 first?

I find it sad that with all the work the FO did this summer, drafting poorly, and signing brown and Beasley killed everything for us. We should have traded our 13th for the 24th, 33rd,and 34th picks, sign Goran and picked up Scola. Possibly signed OJ with a similar contract as the one we gave Beasley. With the picks acquired draft a SG, SF,and C, and build from there. Make all the other moves except resigning Brown, and I think we have a different result, except for the games where Gentry f*cked things up.

[Sun Scorched]

No knee jerk moves. That's all I'm asking for.

Not thrilled with the Marshall pick now, but hindsight is what it is and the pick was made before we signed Goran. Brown sucks, but we needed scoring in a bad way and his contract isn't bad. Beasley? Meh, I think we all saw the potential for something that didn't materialize - that's the only one that stings.

I think patience is the way to go. I agree about not making a move this season - no need in making our pick worse. Not many teams are going to have $15m this offseason, could be interesting. Just no Childress/Warrick type deals - max contract or bust.

If we do agree to absorb salary, we better get picks and talent back. There are a lot of teams eyeing the lux tax this year and PHXs ability to absorb $6m+ without flinching needs to come at a premium.

Finally, I think we are one good wing away from being competitive again. Championship? No. But in the playoff talk. Dragic/Dudley/Scola/Gortat are all guys that can get you there - they just aren't #1 options, which is the problem. Grab a SG in the draft and give him the green light. Or, and I'm sure this wont be popular, sign Ellis. An Ellis/Dragic backcourt would be tough to guard and Ellis can be your 20ppg guy, easily. Think 10m per year.

[lilfishi22]

We need to be patient with our moves. If it isn't a deal that significantly improves us as a team or financially, then don't make it (Rudy). Right now, we're set up pretty well to be a big player in FA and if we don't strike out in FA, then wait for the 2014. We're probably not tanking intentionally, but we're doing well to get us a good pick in the upcoming draft.

[bigfoot]

One overlooked asset is Frye. By April he will have sat out one year without playing. With his heart condition he may never play again. At this point in his career and at his age (30) he has to ask is it worth it to his family to risk his life. The Suns will be able to use a medical waiver on Frye. This effectively frees up another $6.5M for free agent shopping.

[thamadkant]

Good article.
And I'm on the stay pat wagon.

Wait it out...

Get new blood from 2013, 2014 draftees...

Then make a HUGE splash for a star FA come 2014.

Then add pieces to make a huge push for 2014-2015 season.

Patience is the key.

Suns try to put a band aid now will mean half-as rebuild and would be a mediocre result come 2014.


Gentry needs to go also... If he wants to stay he needs to get into "development" mode.

Marshall is such a wasted pick at the moment.... F&@king use him at least so he improves as an asset for the Suns instead if rottin on the bench Sitting behind players with no future as part of the new suns core.


FO needs to hire development coaches I think and focus on a bright and legit 2014 team outlook.

[TASTIC]

Go after Love, now. He's hurt, MIN have a chance to make some noise, and we have some pieces

How about this deal

Gortat + Ridnour + 1st rounder (not a high one) to ATL
- ATL can roll Horford out at his natural PF and have a big frontline

Love to PHX
- duh. Medical staff will sort him out...if his knuckles can be sorted haha

Josh Smith + SBrown + Marshall to MIN
- MIN get an awesome compliment to run next to Rubio and pair with AK47 to be an intense defensive forward combo

Keep a 'base' of

Frye - unless someone wants him
Love
Dragic
Dudley

1st rounders
Capspace

Move anything and everything that can be moved for an asset, ie Wes' expiring,

[ATTL]

Wait. Get a few top 5 picks in the next couple years. Use the cap space we have to absorb a contract for draft picks like we did last summer for Wesley Johnson and how the sonics did years ago with Kurt Thomas, which cost us serge Ibaka.

No point rushing out and blowing our wad on middling players.

[nevetsov]

Go after Love, now. He's hurt, MIN have a chance to make some noise, and we have some pieces

How about this deal

Gortat + Ridnour + 1st rounder (not a high one) to ATL
- ATL can roll Horford out at his natural PF and have a big frontline

Love to PHX
- duh. Medical staff will sort him out...if his knuckles can be sorted haha

Josh Smith + SBrown + Marshall to MIN
- MIN get an awesome compliment to run next to Rubio and pair with AK47 to be an intense defensive forward combo

Keep a 'base' of

Frye - unless someone wants him
Love
Dragic
Dudley

1st rounders
Capspace

Move anything and everything that can be moved for an asset, ie Wes' expiring,

I trade everything but draft picks for Love, right now. He's injured for long enough that he won't compromise our draft position.

Next year:

Love
Tucker
2 Lottos

That's a core.

[rsavaj]

Go after Love, now. He's hurt, MIN have a chance to make some noise, and we have some pieces

How about this deal

Gortat + Ridnour + 1st rounder (not a high one) to ATL
- ATL can roll Horford out at his natural PF and have a big frontline

Love to PHX
- duh. Medical staff will sort him out...if his knuckles can be sorted haha

Josh Smith + SBrown + Marshall to MIN
- MIN get an awesome compliment to run next to Rubio and pair with AK47 to be an intense defensive forward combo

Keep a 'base' of

Frye - unless someone wants him
Love
Dragic
Dudley

1st rounders
Capspace

Move anything and everything that can be moved for an asset, ie Wes' expiring,

I like that idea a lot, but I have a feeling that Atlanta's hoping to sign Dwight in FA this summer, giving them a Smith/Horford/Dwight frontcourt. That's a better opportunity than just Horford+Gortat.

[bwgood77]

No knee jerk moves. That's all I'm asking for.

Not thrilled with the Marshall pick now, but hindsight is what it is and the pick was made before we signed Goran. Brown sucks, but we needed scoring in a bad way and his contract isn't bad. Beasley? Meh, I think we all saw the potential for something that didn't materialize - that's the only one that stings.

I think patience is the way to go. I agree about not making a move this season - no need in making our pick worse. Not many teams are going to have $15m this offseason, could be interesting. Just no Childress/Warrick type deals - max contract or bust.

If we do agree to absorb salary, we better get picks and talent back. There are a lot of teams eyeing the lux tax this year and PHXs ability to absorb $6m+ without flinching needs to come at a premium.

Finally, I think we are one good wing away from being competitive again. Championship? No. But in the playoff talk. Dragic/Dudley/Scola/Gortat are all guys that can get you there - they just aren't #1 options, which is the problem. Grab a SG in the draft and give him the green light. Or, and I'm sure this wont be popular, sign Ellis. An Ellis/Dragic backcourt would be tough to guard and Ellis can be your 20ppg guy, easily. Think 10m per year.

I would be extremely disappointed if we signed Ellis. There is a reason GS got so much better after he was gone (despite the fact the guy they traded him for, Bogut, isn't even playing). He is high on usage and low on efficiency. If we committed $10M a year to a guy like that I would not feel good about the future. With our front office though, I wouldn't be surprised if they made such a move.

[Sun Scorched]

No knee jerk moves. That's all I'm asking for.

Not thrilled with the Marshall pick now, but hindsight is what it is and the pick was made before we signed Goran. Brown sucks, but we needed scoring in a bad way and his contract isn't bad. Beasley? Meh, I think we all saw the potential for something that didn't materialize - that's the only one that stings.

I think patience is the way to go. I agree about not making a move this season - no need in making our pick worse. Not many teams are going to have $15m this offseason, could be interesting. Just no Childress/Warrick type deals - max contract or bust.

If we do agree to absorb salary, we better get picks and talent back. There are a lot of teams eyeing the lux tax this year and PHXs ability to absorb $6m+ without flinching needs to come at a premium.

Finally, I think we are one good wing away from being competitive again. Championship? No. But in the playoff talk. Dragic/Dudley/Scola/Gortat are all guys that can get you there - they just aren't #1 options, which is the problem. Grab a SG in the draft and give him the green light. Or, and I'm sure this wont be popular, sign Ellis. An Ellis/Dragic backcourt would be tough to guard and Ellis can be your 20ppg guy, easily. Think 10m per year.

I would be extremely disappointed if we signed Ellis. There is a reason GS got so much better after he was gone (despite the fact the guy they traded him for, Bogut, isn't even playing). He is high on usage and low on efficiency. If we committed $10M a year to a guy like that I would not feel good about the future. With our front office though, I wouldn't be surprised if they made such a move.

Well, I'm not going to disagree with you not wanting Ellis. But I do think that his skillset is the one that the Suns need the most. You can call him inefficient, but we're essentially paying Brown/Beasley the same amount to do less.

[phx#7]

Well, I'm not going to disagree with you not wanting Ellis. But I do think that his skillset is the one that the Suns need the most. You can call him inefficient, but we're essentially paying Brown/Beasley the same amount to do less.

After this season the Suns will owe Brown/Beasley roughly 10mil total. Ellis is likely going to cost a minimum of 40mil/4 years.

[Sun Scorched]

Well, I'm not going to disagree with you not wanting Ellis. But I do think that his skillset is the one that the Suns need the most. You can call him inefficient, but we're essentially paying Brown/Beasley the same amount to do less.

After this season the Suns will owe Brown/Beasley roughly 10mil total. Ellis is likely going to cost a minimum of 40mil/4 years.

Agree with that contract and understand the aversion.

[DRK]

Strike now, but not to make a playoff push this year, but to blow this whole m'fer up.

Gortat should be traded by the deadline, otherwise next season, as he's an expiring ocntract, his trade value decereases and we will end up losing him for nothing. Do it while his value is high.

[jcsunsfan]

Go after Love, now. He's hurt, MIN have a chance to make some noise, and we have some pieces

How about this deal

Gortat + Ridnour + 1st rounder (not a high one) to ATL
- ATL can roll Horford out at his natural PF and have a big frontline

Love to PHX
- duh. Medical staff will sort him out...if his knuckles can be sorted haha

Josh Smith + SBrown + Marshall to MIN
- MIN get an awesome compliment to run next to Rubio and pair with AK47 to be an intense defensive forward combo

Keep a 'base' of

Frye - unless someone wants him
Love
Dragic
Dudley

1st rounders
Capspace

Move anything and everything that can be moved for an asset, ie Wes' expiring,

I trade everything but draft picks for Love, right now. He's injured for long enough that he won't compromise our draft position.

Next year:

Love
Tucker
2 Lottos

That's a core.

Um. #'s don't match. Doesn't make sense for either team. Tucker is a good role player but not a core player.

Overstatement.

[RunSunRun]

Got to be patient, we suck right now and its not going to be a quick fix. The worst thing to do would be to blow our cap space on sub-par players in a desperate attempt to get back into the 8th seed mix.

Therefore I expect our front office to throw a 10 million per year deal to Greg Oden,

[Jarlaxle0204]

Agree with most of you. The key is patience and no knee jerk reactions/band aids. We HAVE to get in the top 5 in next year's draft. Trade off Gortat and Scola before next season. Try and acquire good draft picks for next year with the trades. Save our cap space for 2014. Don't sign anyone this offseason. This team is perfect for our current needs. Play Beasley and Brown more! Profit.

[GrantHill]

Play Beasley and Brown more! Profit.

Sorry, but I hate this attidude. Just look at the game threads. Most people don't even discuss/watch the games. Home attendance dropped in a major way. Everyone complains about those two players and the last thing we need is a losing culture. I'm all for high draft picks but if you are going to tank, I will completely lose interest in this team and I probably not the only one. Keep our core in tact, add a few pieces like Frank Lee said in another thread, and see where you go from there. Just don't play these losers ahead of guys that deserve it.