RealGM

According to this...the prediction calls for "pain"

Left side is our current strength of schedule, right side is our remaining strength of schedule

Our SOS undoubtedly gets more difficult, but I didn't realize it was going to be that much harder. Portland and Denver are the only other teams who have a schedule that gets much harder for the rest of the season.

Good news however: All of Indiana, Washington, and Minnesota have easier schedules for the rest of the season, which could help us with draft picks.

Also all of the Western Conference is in the top half of SOS, so it means we still have a chance to make the playoffs.




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeD8AK9CQAAx_Wr.png:large

I think McD and Hornacek knows this thats why the picks are on the table for a star....


Then Bledsoe gets injured...

Couple observations:

Indiana pick will be 28-30. We knew that allready.
Washington pick will be 20ish, as they will be 3rd or 4th East (no way Atl keeps this up).
Minnesota will have a really tough time getting to the 8th place in the West (and they will tank if they see that they cant reach the playoffs, so they wont have to give us their first rounder).
We might not make the playoffs, especially with Bledsoe out for so long.


And by the looks of it the Fakers will land a top5 pick... damit for out 2015 pick from them

I don't think the 2015 pick is doomed yet. Remember, that pick is protected so we don't want the Lakers to be too bad. And keep in mind the West is loaded and right now, aside from a high lotto pick, we don't know what the Lakers will look like next year. Will Kobe be able to stay healthy? If so, how good will he even be? Will they be able to attract any difference-maker in free agencies? They could land Carmelo, Bledsoe, Hayward, or Monroe, or they could strike out on all of them.

So my point is: let's just wait and see before we start lamenting the low quality of the Lakers 2015 pick.

Thanks for the chart, such an interesting way to format it.

The smart thing for the Lakers to do would be tank, but we all know Kobe WILL NOT allow that. Kobe will do everything in his power to try to push the Lakers into the playoffs. The only thing stopping this is another injury.

Minnesota cannot tank. Love is already getting publicly frustrated. They will push hard for the playoffs and maybe even make a trade to try to improve their roster.

Denver and Dallas are overrated. Memphis will pass them. Hopefully we can stay ahead of them as well.

I expect the Suns to stand pat unless we can acquire a star or solid player for the right price. More then likely the Suns will see how we play when Bledsoe comes back and then make moves in the off season.

The Lakers won't make the playoffs. I would bet my house on that.

Pay attention above all to the April games. We close out the season like this:

vs Clippers
@Portland
vs OKC
@New Orleans
@San Antonio
@Dallas
vs Memphis
@Sacramento

If by the start of that madness the Suns are not in a solid position, it is, needing less than 50% of those games to make the playoffs, I don't know if we'll make it.

I rode the high and loved it, now I'm back to being OK with tanking.

It's probably too late for that, unless McD makes some trades.

Tanking is a really bad strategy within the draft lottery system. That's pretty well documented.

RunSunRun wrote:According to this...the prediction calls for "pain"

Left side is our current strength of schedule, right side is our remaining strength of schedule

Our SOS undoubtedly gets more difficult, but I didn't realize it was going to be that much harder. Portland and Denver are the only other teams who have a schedule that gets much harder for the rest of the season.

Good news however: All of Indiana, Washington, and Minnesota have easier schedules for the rest of the season, which could help us with draft picks.

Also all of the Western Conference is in the top half of SOS, so it means we still have a chance to make the playoffs.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeD8AK9CQAAx_Wr.png:large

OUr harder schedule helps us with draft picks too. I really don't care if we are 5th seed or 8th seed. If we are in the playoffs, we might as well play the best right away AND have a better pick.

Bad strategy in what sense?

One of the typical arguments against 'tanking' is that very few superstars win titles with the team that drafted them. I find it completely irrelevant. whatever happens to your star is a matter of what he wants in life and what kind of team you can put around him.

You can also get screwed by the odds. This year, tho, you don't have one clear cut superstar, like Tim Duncan or Shaq. There is a wide number of big prices to be had, so in this case, the betrayal of the ping pong balls wouldn't be as harmful as other years, so to speak, but even if the class was lackluster, there is always talent to be found, and you can use the pick in a trade, be it for different draft assets or actual players.

Then you can get to the 'draft = crapshot'. Well, no team is bust free, and no draft position is a stranger to subpar production related to expectations, but what is out of question is that the higher you pick, the better talent available, and it's also well documented that beyond a certain range, the quality of the prospects drops heavily.

I can agree that 'tanking' doesn't work in the sense that you are not guaranteed anything, be it draft position or results from the prospect you select, especially if you think that just only one or two players are worthy of being really bad during a regular season, but that's not saying much considering the nature of the draft and basketball prospects/scouting. I don't think it's particularly revelating to say that in order to have success, you need not just skills, some luck and sometimes you have to create your own luck with skill, and this is exactly what happens in the NBA when it comes to the draft.

Leaving aside the (in my opinion questionable) dishonest angle, or the semantics surrounding tanking vs rebuilding (I do think there is a difference), I think it's undeniable that getting a high pick is a very good way for a franchise to start a new project, but of course is not the answer to all your problems.

You need to make a good choice, then follow it with further adequate talent evaluation and with a solid plan to build a competitive team within a certain period, which includes free agency/trades strategy.

In my opinion tanking/sucking/being bad by design, etc, is at one point or another imperative for any franchise, even the omnipotent Lakers, given the way the talent and money are allowed to flow in the NBA. Whatever happens thereafter is another story.