The TJ Warren Thread!

[GoodBehavior]

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/01/02/runners-touch-shooting-development/

Good article from the stepien talking about touch being a indicator on 3pt shooting increases and talking about TJ Warren.

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Tony Parker and DeRozan have some of the best touches I have seen. Embiid's midrange and overall touch are elite. They can't really shoot 3's.

It's an indicator, not a rule.

Sounds like a crappy indicator at that. For ever TJ Warren, there's probably way more DeRozan/Tony Parker. TJ is the exception rather than the rule when it comes to developing the 3 ball. He became elite practically overnight. Unheard of

[MathiasPW]

Tony Parker and DeRozan have some of the best touches I have seen. Embiid's midrange and overall touch are elite. They can't really shoot 3's.

It's an indicator, not a rule.

Sounds like a crappy indicator at that. For ever TJ Warren, there's probably way more DeRozan/Tony Parker. TJ is the exception rather than the rule when it comes to developing the 3 ball. He became elite practically overnight. Unheard of

Could be a crappy one. I have no data to support it. But, also, there is more to "shooting" than 3 pointers. The examples you gave are actually good shooters from most of the court except the 3 pt line ( where they aren't that bad either)

[WeekapaugGroove]

Tony Parker and DeRozan have some of the best touches I have seen. Embiid's midrange and overall touch are elite. They can't really shoot 3's.

It's an indicator, not a rule.

Sounds like a crappy indicator at that. For ever TJ Warren, there's probably way more DeRozan/Tony Parker. TJ is the exception rather than the rule when it comes to developing the 3 ball. He became elite practically overnight. Unheard of

I think it's an interesting thing to explore when trying to project who can improve at 3pt shooting and is logical since FT % is currently the leading indicator and in a way touch plays a factor in that too.

Parker is an interesting case since he was just a very unwilling 3pt shooter but actually shot over 40% a couple of seasons. I wonder if he could have been good if he really focused on it.

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[GoodBehavior]

It's an indicator, not a rule.

Sounds like a crappy indicator at that. For ever TJ Warren, there's probably way more DeRozan/Tony Parker. TJ is the exception rather than the rule when it comes to developing the 3 ball. He became elite practically overnight. Unheard of

I think it's an interesting thing to explore when trying to project who can improve at 3pt shooting and is logical since FT % is currently the leading indicator and in a way touch plays a factor in that too.

Parker is an interesting case since he was just a very unwilling 3pt shooter but actually shot over 40% a couple of seasons. I wonder if he could have been good if he really focused on it.

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I hear what you're saying. But the "analysis" is so poor that it's hard to make the same conclusion that they're making.

For starter, TJ is an outlier. I am not aware of any player having the same development he has. Fox is also a poor exhibition. He's attempting just 3 FGA. You can't conclude that he's a good shooter just from the data. There are players who have good runner touch but don't develop a good 3 ball. And vice versa. Look at all the decent 3pt shooters (>35%) in the league, how many of those players have good runners/floaters? Not many.

So I am skeptical, the relationship holds.

[cberry78]

I think it's safe to say that if you do anything 42,000 times in a relatively short amount of time (like the off season) you will get better at it. Run box out drills 42,000, you'll be better boxing out your man. Run entry pass drills 42,000 times and you'll make better passes. Dribble with your off hand 42,000 times and you'll be a better ball handler. Etc, etc, etc.

It comes down to heart and desire. Not every player is going to take the time to do any one thing 42,000 times during an off season to show marked improvement. TJ has shown that he is willing to do that and is reaping the rewards of that effort, hopefully that mentality will rub off on the younger guys. Is TJ enough of a veteran now to be considered the vet leadership this team needs?

[bwgood77]

Sounds like a crappy indicator at that. For ever TJ Warren, there's probably way more DeRozan/Tony Parker. TJ is the exception rather than the rule when it comes to developing the 3 ball. He became elite practically overnight. Unheard of

I think it's an interesting thing to explore when trying to project who can improve at 3pt shooting and is logical since FT % is currently the leading indicator and in a way touch plays a factor in that too.

Parker is an interesting case since he was just a very unwilling 3pt shooter but actually shot over 40% a couple of seasons. I wonder if he could have been good if he really focused on it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

I hear what you're saying. But the "analysis" is so poor that it's hard to make the same conclusion that they're making.

For starter, TJ is an outlier. I am not aware of any player having the same development he has. Fox is also a poor exhibition. He's attempting just 3 FGA. You can't conclude that he's a good shooter just from the data. There are players who have good runner touch but don't develop a good 3 ball. And vice versa. Look at all the decent 3pt shooters (>35%) in the league, how many of those players have good runners/floaters? Not many.

So I am skeptical, the relationship holds.

Tons of guys with great touch are already good 3 pt shooters...the list is very long, but it can start with Curry and KD.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Sounds like a crappy indicator at that. For ever TJ Warren, there's probably way more DeRozan/Tony Parker. TJ is the exception rather than the rule when it comes to developing the 3 ball. He became elite practically overnight. Unheard of

I think it's an interesting thing to explore when trying to project who can improve at 3pt shooting and is logical since FT % is currently the leading indicator and in a way touch plays a factor in that too.

Parker is an interesting case since he was just a very unwilling 3pt shooter but actually shot over 40% a couple of seasons. I wonder if he could have been good if he really focused on it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

I hear what you're saying. But the "analysis" is so poor that it's hard to make the same conclusion that they're making.

For starter, TJ is an outlier. I am not aware of any player having the same development he has. Fox is also a poor exhibition. He's attempting just 3 FGA. You can't conclude that he's a good shooter just from the data. There are players who have good runner touch but don't develop a good 3 ball. And vice versa. Look at all the decent 3pt shooters (>35%) in the league, how many of those players have good runners/floaters? Not many.

So I am skeptical, the relationship holds.

I agree there are some flaws to the analysis but in general we're so new to the age of guys taking this high of a volume of 3's there just isn't much data to go on right now. There are probably guys from 10+ years ago that could have made a leap in 3 pt shooting but never tried; heck if TJ was playing 10-15 years ago he might not have made the attempt to become a 3pt shooter. I think he wisely saw where the league was going and really worked his ass off to add that to his game; major props to him.

The the stepien is a draft site so it's the appropriate place to play around with these theories on projections and I hope they continue to dig on this and other indicators. Teams should be working on these theories too because when it comes to new trends like high volume 3pt shooting who ever can come up with ways to project what guys will be good at it can snag up some players in value spots in the draft and get a competitive advantage.

[bwgood77]

I think it's an interesting thing to explore when trying to project who can improve at 3pt shooting and is logical since FT % is currently the leading indicator and in a way touch plays a factor in that too.

Parker is an interesting case since he was just a very unwilling 3pt shooter but actually shot over 40% a couple of seasons. I wonder if he could have been good if he really focused on it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

I hear what you're saying. But the "analysis" is so poor that it's hard to make the same conclusion that they're making.

For starter, TJ is an outlier. I am not aware of any player having the same development he has. Fox is also a poor exhibition. He's attempting just 3 FGA. You can't conclude that he's a good shooter just from the data. There are players who have good runner touch but don't develop a good 3 ball. And vice versa. Look at all the decent 3pt shooters (>35%) in the league, how many of those players have good runners/floaters? Not many.

So I am skeptical, the relationship holds.

I agree there are some flaws to the analysis but in general we're so new to the age of guys taking this high of a volume of 3's there just isn't much data to go on right now. There are probably guys from 10+ years ago that could have made a leap in 3 pt shooting but never tried; heck if TJ was playing 10-15 years ago he might not have made the attempt to become a 3pt shooter. I think he wisely saw where the league was going and really worked his ass off to add that to his game; major props to him.

The the stepien is a draft site so it's the appropriate place to play around with these theories on projections and I hope they continue to dig on this and other indicators. Teams should be working on these theories too because when it comes to new trends like high volume 3pt shooting who ever can come up with ways to project what guys will be good at it can snag up some players in value spots in the draft and get a competitive advantage.

He also mentioned Fox as a guy with great touch who made a great improvement after never being good before...it's not just Warren...many Cs with great touch have made great improvement after never shooting them for years..Frye, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, etc.

Another guy is Derrick Rose shooting over 46% from 3 this year after being a career sub 30% 3 pt shooter.

[GoodBehavior]

I hear what you're saying. But the "analysis" is so poor that it's hard to make the same conclusion that they're making.

For starter, TJ is an outlier. I am not aware of any player having the same development he has. Fox is also a poor exhibition. He's attempting just 3 FGA. You can't conclude that he's a good shooter just from the data. There are players who have good runner touch but don't develop a good 3 ball. And vice versa. Look at all the decent 3pt shooters (>35%) in the league, how many of those players have good runners/floaters? Not many.

So I am skeptical, the relationship holds.

I agree there are some flaws to the analysis but in general we're so new to the age of guys taking this high of a volume of 3's there just isn't much data to go on right now. There are probably guys from 10+ years ago that could have made a leap in 3 pt shooting but never tried; heck if TJ was playing 10-15 years ago he might not have made the attempt to become a 3pt shooter. I think he wisely saw where the league was going and really worked his ass off to add that to his game; major props to him.

The the stepien is a draft site so it's the appropriate place to play around with these theories on projections and I hope they continue to dig on this and other indicators. Teams should be working on these theories too because when it comes to new trends like high volume 3pt shooting who ever can come up with ways to project what guys will be good at it can snag up some players in value spots in the draft and get a competitive advantage.

He also mentioned Fox as a guy with great touch who made a great improvement after never being good before...it's not just Warren...many Cs with great touch have made great improvement after never shooting them for years..Frye, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, etc.

Shooting touch, by definition, helps with shooting. The better the "shooting touch," the better is a players' chance of being a good 3point shooter.

The article is about "runner" touch. Since you can't really measure "touch," his metric is runner effiicency. Unfortunately, his conclusion (runners effiiciency/touch -> 3 pt shooting, see exhibit a (tj warren) and exhibit b (fox)) doesn't bear out.

His own data contradict his conclusions: "Of course, being on a list like this (indicative of touch) doesn’t necessarily correlate to NBA 3. Shane Larkin, Tyler Ulis, Cam Payne, Juwan Evans, Elfrid Payton and DeJounte Murray are all below 34 percent career 3-point shooters."

In other words, he wrote a long article about runner's touch being a proxy for future 3pt shooting proficiency, and there's scant evidence of it.

[bwgood77]

Read on Twitter

[Saberestar]

He talked to the media after the game against the Hornets, not usual for him.

Watch on YouTube

[MathiasPW]

I participate in a Brazilian Suns forum with no correlation with this one besides myself. Funny enough, the "trade TJ" trend (TTT) exists there as well. Not sure why this happens or if it's just a coincidence. Must be something in our brain that makes us overvalue flashiness, like bugs with the blue light.

[bwgood77]

I participate in a Brazilian Suns forum with no correlation with this one besides myself. Funny enough, the "trade TJ" trend (TTT) exists there as well. Not sure why this happens or if it's just a coincidence. Must be something in our brain that makes us overvalue flashiness, like bugs with the blue light.

I think a lot of it stems from BSoTS and 7SOL podcats (particularly Max there). Those guys hype a lot of players and either don't mention TJ or mention trading him. So it just spreads through twitter and everywhere else.

The FO realizes his importance though, at least based on what James says. His elite 3 pt shooting opens it up for so many others to get easy shots and get to the rim.

Someone gets a great dunk, his gravity plays a part in that but those that love the flashy plays don't do it..he puts up quiet yet extremely efficient points 90% of the time.

[lilfishi22]

I participate in a Brazilian Suns forum with no correlation with this one besides myself. Funny enough, the "trade TJ" trend (TTT) exists there as well. Not sure why this happens or if it's just a coincidence. Must be something in our brain that makes us overvalue flashiness, like bugs with the blue light.

Because he has value and we're also rather stacked in that position.

He's been one of our best players this season and it's made him one of the best contracts in the league imo. We recognize that and so would other teams and that's why he could be an attractive trade bait. Whether he's flashy or not doesn't really matter to me, what matters is production.

[bwgood77]

I participate in a Brazilian Suns forum with no correlation with this one besides myself. Funny enough, the "trade TJ" trend (TTT) exists there as well. Not sure why this happens or if it's just a coincidence. Must be something in our brain that makes us overvalue flashiness, like bugs with the blue light.

Because he has value and we're also rather stacked in that position.

He's been one of our best players this season and it's made him one of the best contracts in the league imo. We recognize that and so would other teams and that's why he could be an attractive trade bait. Whether he's flashy or not doesn't really matter to me, what matters is production.

I don't think we can afford to give him up barring a great deal...we were last by a long shot in 3pt% last year and this year are still 26th in 3pt%. We finally have an elite 3 pt shooter and people are wanting to trade him. You need that great efficiency and also the fact that he draws defenders from Ayton and doubling Book unlike most of our other perimeter players. The only other guy that shoots above league avg (35.3%) besides Daniels is Oubre (37%). Bridges is fairly close to league avg (34.6%).

[lilfishi22]

I participate in a Brazilian Suns forum with no correlation with this one besides myself. Funny enough, the "trade TJ" trend (TTT) exists there as well. Not sure why this happens or if it's just a coincidence. Must be something in our brain that makes us overvalue flashiness, like bugs with the blue light.

Because he has value and we're also rather stacked in that position.

He's been one of our best players this season and it's made him one of the best contracts in the league imo. We recognize that and so would other teams and that's why he could be an attractive trade bait. Whether he's flashy or not doesn't really matter to me, what matters is production.

I don't think we can afford to give him up barring a great deal...we were last by a long shot in 3pt% last year and this year are still 26th in 3pt%. We finally have an elite 3 pt shooter and people are wanting to trade him. You need that great efficiency and also the fact that he draws defenders from Ayton and doubling Book unlike most of our other perimeter players. The only other guy that shoots above league avg (35.3%) besides Daniels is Oubre (37%). Bridges is fairly close to league avg (34.6%).

Obviously I wouldn't trade him for scrap or as a throw in. I'm just saying that because he has more value now, he'll be able to get us something better.

[MathiasPW]

Because he has value and we're also rather stacked in that position.

He's been one of our best players this season and it's made him one of the best contracts in the league imo. We recognize that and so would other teams and that's why he could be an attractive trade bait. Whether he's flashy or not doesn't really matter to me, what matters is production.

I don't think we can afford to give him up barring a great deal...we were last by a long shot in 3pt% last year and this year are still 26th in 3pt%. We finally have an elite 3 pt shooter and people are wanting to trade him. You need that great efficiency and also the fact that he draws defenders from Ayton and doubling Book unlike most of our other perimeter players. The only other guy that shoots above league avg (35.3%) besides Daniels is Oubre (37%). Bridges is fairly close to league avg (34.6%).

Obviously I wouldn't trade him for scrap or as a throw in. I'm just saying that because he has more value now, he'll be able to get us something better.

I get it, bit it's tje one bird in the hand vs two in the bush thing. Trading the certain and good for the uncertain and maybe great can backfire tremendously.

[lilfishi22]

I don't think we can afford to give him up barring a great deal...we were last by a long shot in 3pt% last year and this year are still 26th in 3pt%. We finally have an elite 3 pt shooter and people are wanting to trade him. You need that great efficiency and also the fact that he draws defenders from Ayton and doubling Book unlike most of our other perimeter players. The only other guy that shoots above league avg (35.3%) besides Daniels is Oubre (37%). Bridges is fairly close to league avg (34.6%).

Obviously I wouldn't trade him for scrap or as a throw in. I'm just saying that because he has more value now, he'll be able to get us something better.

I get it, bit it's tje one bird in the hand vs two in the bush thing. Trading the certain and good for the uncertain and maybe great can backfire tremendously.

I generally agree with what you're saying but not totally.

Not totally because I don't totally agree TJ is a certain. He's taken a massive step this season with his versatility offensively but his weak defense and iso heavy game kind of makes him a bit harder to fit onto a cohesive team offense, I feel. Throw in the fact that we also have Bridges, who I think will be a better fit on the team's offense and particularly next to Booker.

I'm not calling for a TJ trade today so think I'm on the Trade TJ bandwagon. I'm just saying I'm open to it especially if it brings in the PG we want.

[bwgood77]

From eye test alone, I thought TJ was better and put more effort defensively earlier on in the season. Now it seems like he's back to where he was last year. Perhaps he's saving his energy for offense because Booker has been out so often and he doesn't seem to utilise Ayton to help carry some of that offense either.

A lot of it depends on fouls. Last game for example he came out energetic defensively but got two quick fouls (one on trying to take a charge) so he sat for awhile but had to be careful with the fouls when he came back.

It seems it happened in one other game in our last 4-5 too.

I also think he is a little more out of sync in his whole game playing with Josh instead of Book. Whereas a lot of other players play better without Book, I think they have played together long enough to have great chemistry and know where each other will be. Starting with Jackson hurts a bit...also because he receives a lot more defensive attention, especially with Jackson AND Melton in on offense.

It really hurt Booker's shooting last year when he played with Jackson instead of Warren.

[lilfishi22]

From eye test alone, I thought TJ was better and put more effort defensively earlier on in the season. Now it seems like he's back to where he was last year. Perhaps he's saving his energy for offense because Booker has been out so often and he doesn't seem to utilise Ayton to help carry some of that offense either.

A lot of it depends on fouls. Last game for example he came out energetic defensively but got two quick fouls (one on trying to take a charge) so he sat for awhile but had to be careful with the fouls when he came back.

It seems it happened in one other game in our last 4-5 too.

I also think he is a little more out of sync in his whole game playing with Josh instead of Book. Whereas a lot of other players play better without Book, I think they have played together long enough to have great chemistry and know where each other will be. Starting with Jackson hurts a bit...also because he receives a lot more defensive attention, especially with Jackson AND Melton in on offense.

It really hurt Booker's shooting last year when he played with Jackson instead of Warren.

Possibly. His foul rate is up this year. But being able to play tough D so that you don't get called for fouls is part of defense as well.

Yeah, I've noticed JJ and Warren don't really have much chemistry out there unless it's a fast break.