Time to 'pull the plug' or Dr Jack, where are you?

[Frank Lee]

Thought Id expand our options to include a philosophical discussion of the future of this team......
as it seems we are now treadmilling the treadmill discussion


Here's my nutshell...

We invested in ISO minded players this off season. Bled, IT, KeifMo, CusMo.... all inked in for the next 3-5 yrs, committing close to 35 mill to them (half the payroll). All of them disciples of Hero Ball. Toss in the Chancellor of Chuck, GGreen and we have given the coach consistent line ups with 2 or 3+ of these tunnel vision scores on the floor at all times. Coach Hornechuck seems to have embraced it. Their shoot first ask Qs later has infected the rest of the players to follow suit. Nobody values assists. The ball dominant dribblers (namely Bled and IT) look to get their shot the first 15-18 seconds they have the ball. If they can't, it is passed of to someone who really then has to shoot, gladly, I may add.

Somewhere in the mix, the Coach is reinforcing this philosophy with a 'if you have a shot, take it' green light. Well, with the players above, 'they almost always have a shot' in their minds. Currently, one of Hornechuck's go to strategies is to send in IT and Green and hope one of them get scorchy enough to shoot us through the quarter. Brilliant. How did he come up with that one eh? His playbook pages seem to have one X and one O.

Now we see fellow team mates like Tucker expanding his offensive opportunity, Heck, even Len is now working himself out to 15 ftrs. I try to remain unbiased with my boy Dragic, as it does seem his trigger is not as itchy. But either way, it is almost given if one of the 5 horsemen from our chuck wagon gets the ball... you are not seeing it back. Just run to your 'bail out spot' and watch, if he gets in trouble, he might pass it too you...and if you get the ball first, why not get your shot in too, you may not have a chance again.

This circus system of shoot drive kick shoot shoot... a hybrid of SSOL, is a gimmick offense designed to generate an exciting brand of BBall.... hyped to sell tickets. I don't know what came first, the scheme or the players.... but something has to change because, even in wins, this is some of the ugliest me-first-sling-shotting-BS basketball I have ever witnessed from the valley. It is not any kind of 'Brand' I want to follow. And I am a GD long termer.

It a top down problem IMO. and at this point, I see little reason to knock anyone who has other thoughts/ideas, like playing the guys who painfully have to view this from the bench, or... dumping the lot.

Oh Brother

[nevetsov]

Keep all the guys who have given their all to this franchise, who are unselfish and leave 100% on the floor. Ditch the rest.

I'd rather lose with that kind of effort, than lose with a selfish teamful of chuckers.

[JTrain]

I share some of your frustration. I agree we don't seem to have a coherent offensive system, and I agree it is very ugly to watch sometimes.

But, I don't think our chucking problem is as bad as you make it out to be. If it was, our eFG numbers would reflect that. Yet we're 15th in the league at eFG%-- average. So the shot selection isn't nearly as bad as the frustration from the ugly plays builds it up to be.

[kennydorglas]

It's a really tough question, because in every interview with Hornacek, he always complains about our 'chucker' mentality.
This is so mind-puzzling, he gives them so much freedom and then complain about their choices. What a hell?

We have a bunch of low IQ bball players, so I never would trust them to make the best decision in the court.

A great coaching can 'hide' some of these IQ limitations (ex: Patty Mills, Danny Green, Kawhi, Cory Joseph in Pop's hands... Teague in Budenholzer's, several players under Carlisle's, etc.)
If you play these type of players in the right way, they can thrive.
If you let them running wild in the court, you'll suffer the consequences (and maybe have some really good games)... but inconsistency is key right now.

I dont know anymore if Hornacek is HC's material. It's really sad because I had some high hopes for him, but he isnt doing his part.

[Revived]

I honestly think it's just a few bad seeds who are ruining the team. And yes, Green is one of them. Even in his good games, he takes the worst shot possible. Doesn't ever pass the f***ing ball either.

It's clear he's not playing for the team and is only playing for his next contract since he's a free agent after this season.

Marcus is another selfish ballhog who only ever passes to his brother.

[Saberestar]

It is fustrating because it is getting worse. I want to see some "head coach's decisions" by Horny, show some discipline.

[mikea7]

Excellent post, Frank. I thought about posting something similar last night, only much shorter, i.e. "What exactly are we building here?"

I find that I'm stumped by the question of what will actually get us to the next level. Obviously, improvement by our young bigs will help (Len, if he stays healthy and continues to develop, is a keeper. I think that Brendan Wright could be a good piece as well in that department, and Kieff is getting there.)

We have guards who, in general, take too many chances, both on offense and defense. The number of times they put the bigs in bad situations on defense by being easily beat off the dribble, not getting under or over screens in good enough position, or gambling for steals is ridiculous. And the turnovers on offense, especially late in games....wow. The "safest" PG seems to be Dragic, by the eye test, but he's also the oldest. Also, the eye test would indicate that his defense can be mediocre...but it's not as if Bledsoe has been tearing it up on that end, either. Not consistently.

Poor BBall IQ is a real issue, especially with the guards. And there's a basic mentality that says "take the first open shot" rather than running a system and probing the defense. For example, it seems that the bigs are taught, if they don't get the ball off the high pick and roll (which they almost never do) NOT to establish position low, but rather clear out for the guards. How is this helping get a high percentage shot? Where is the "screen for the screener" type of system that could produce side-to-side ball movement and open weak side opportunities? And why are the guards so content to take contested shots rather than trying to get a step on their man and making the defense scramble?

Watch the Spurs for a great example of how this is supposed to work. Every time they get the ball on the perimeter, it's a shot fake and drive, then swing the ball, rinse and repeat.

So. What piece will move us to the next level? What kind of star? I don't think Kevin Love is the answer. Should we add by subtraction? Do we need more dirt workers who will set great screens and execute an offense? If so, what kind of star player is obtainable and can help?

I fear that unless the front office and HC have answers to these questions, we will be stuck in mediocrity. We're ok, but not good, and I haven't seen the kind of team improvement that I would've hoped for. I've been watching this franchise for over 20 years, and it seems like we've been asking these same questions more often than not, even when we're winning. What do we need to get there?

Thoughts?

[JTrain]

I think we might have a good core with starters being Dragic, Bledsoe, Len and hopefully Warren in a year or two. Morrii, Tucker, Green and Wright can be great bench guys. We can either draft a PF if we get the Lakers pick at 6 or 7, assuming there is a great player available there. Or we can use that pick, our pick and IT to net us a PF in a trade.

[MathiasPW]

Is it possible that defenses have adjusted to our "4-out" system and are now guarding the perimeter better while allowing for the ball handler to create his shot?

That would explain the different situation from last year despite same core and coaching, and also the good eFG% we have despite a lot of Hero Ball.

I disagree about the lack of team play, though. To me it is very visible on the defensive end, where we have been doing a much better job.

[Kyler Murray]

We were supposed to be bottom-dwellers yet we're fighting for the playoffs in a historically tough west, how are we not doing the proper things? IMO the FO has shown enough skill and savviness to have my trust for the long term plan.

[MilotheSlayer]

What hurt us was doing so well last year. I think it made McD scratch his whole plan and try and field a competitive team. He gave contracts to guys he shouldn't have and now this upcoming offseason is going to decide the future of this team. Our cap situation isn't as flexible as it looks and that might hurt us in the long run. The contracts to IT and Tucker could be what keeps us from locking up a KLove or a big FA when the time comes.

[Frank Lee]

Is it possible that defenses have adjusted to our "4-out" system and are now guarding the perimeter better while allowing for the ball handler to create his shot?

That would explain the different situation from last year despite same core and coaching, and also the good eFG% we have despite a lot of Hero Ball.

I disagree about the lack of team play, though. To me it is very visible on the defensive end, where we have been doing a much better job.

I am curious about that 'system'. Last yr, we picked and we rolled ... a lot. This yr... I don't know what you would call it.

I'm not a stat reliant person, but if there was one I'd like to see, it is the # of passes we make per bucket. Surely our assist #s are down, but if you were to track the number of different players to touch the ball each time down, I think it would be tell tale. Even better, track the 'intent' passes. We are plagued with the 'I can't get past my man, so here, you shoot it' pass.

And yes, defensively we are coming around, thanks mainly to Len.

[bigfoot]

Is it possible that defenses have adjusted to our "4-out" system and are now guarding the perimeter better while allowing for the ball handler to create his shot?

That would explain the different situation from last year despite same core and coaching, and also the good eFG% we have despite a lot of Hero Ball.

I disagree about the lack of team play, though. To me it is very visible on the defensive end, where we have been doing a much better job.

I am curious about that 'system'. Last yr, we picked and we rolled ... a lot. This yr... I don't know what you would call it.

I'm not a stat reliant person, but if there was one I'd like to see, it is the # of passes we make per bucket. Surely our assist #s are down, but if you were to track the number of different players to touch the ball each time down, I think it would be tell tale. Even better, track the 'intent' passes. We are plagued with the 'I can't get past my man, so here, you shoot it' pass.

And yes, defensively we are coming around, thanks mainly to Len.

Frank, last year we picked and popped a lot. Dragic and Frye ... repeat and rinse. Now statistically speaking (and I know some folks hate that) the Suns are better this year in the assists department. Last year we averaged 19.1 per game. This year we are better at 20.7 per game. That number is not yet in the top half of the league but is getting close.

So we all agree the Suns lack an elite pass-first PG. But that is not really needed because Tony Parker is a score first PG as is Russell Westbrook. Spurs are in top third in the league in assists and everyone raves about their passing. OKC is nearly last in the league. I have seen OKC fans complain when Westbrook dominates the ball (thinking Durant should take every shot). How many Suns fans would take Westbrook over Dragic ... almost certainly everyone.

Over 40 years us old fans have seen a steady diet of quality passers from AA, KJ, Kidd, and Nash. But how important are assists. Have the won us any chips? Boston is top three in the league in assists per game but are ranked 12th in the Leastern conference. During the Nash era so many times I wanted to see him take the game winning shot but he would pass it up to someone else. Don't even wanna talk about Boris Diaw. Are we just not used to ISO ball because we haven't watched it enough. Lebron/Wade and Parker/Ginobli surely dominate the ball. Curry/Thompson, yeah I imagine their usage rates are quite high. Anything wrong with that. Not if your are winning.

So why do things look so fugly. I would think it boils down to playing time together. An elite pass first point guard has a special inate ability (court vision) that allows them to immediately integrate themselves into the team. Bledsoe, Dragic, Thomas don't and will not ever have that ability. Right now it is found in Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo. So our PGs need to rely on repetition. Knowing their teamates favorite spots and cuts and plays. Think Dragic/Frye ... a very good pairing. I claim the team just hasn't had the time to refine their play together. You tend to play more as individuals (ball hogs) until you learn the tendencies, strengths, and weakness of your teammates. I don't think that comes in one or two years either. The Cavs are a good example. So are a team full of four year seniors who are the Cinderella team of the NCAA tourney. Sometimes playing together for many years beats out talent. I believe that's why the Spurs have this longevity. Their talent level isn't as high as it used to be but they know how to play together because they have been together for a long time.

All-and-all I'm still fine with where this team is headed. Frustrated sure. Who wouldn't want to see there team win ever game. I don't believe a mid-season shake-up fixes much unless we can get a superstar in return. Right now the superstars just aren't available or aren't the ones we want (young). Maybe something shakes free in the summer but I doubt it. But I do believe we are headed in a much better direction that most people on the board believe. We have good PGs and possibly a superstar center. Warren, Ennis, Goodwin, Bogan, and two 2015 1st round picks. If the season starts going south then after the all-star break we start using Ennis, Warren, and Goodwin. That's the plug I would pull. We can move Green in a sign-and-trade this summer and look to move IT as well. He is always a good backup plan if Dragic chooses to leave.

Edit: One more thing. I see many people complain about the Morri passing the ball to each other. Like it is a sixth sense type of thing. Well of course it is. They have played together for 20+ years. That's the point I'm trying to make letting this team learn to play together. They will become better both offensively and defensively the longer they play together. Just make minor adjustments and don't rock the ship too much.

[RaisingArizona]

Frank, I have no idea what you're always referencing to in pop culture.

In regards to the Suns, we're just a player or two away from being 4-5 seed in the west. It's definitely not time to overreact and blow everything up because we have a nice core. A low post presence could be useful. Also, we really don't have any knock down 3pt shooting guys. I noticed that most of our guys are shooting under 40% from 3. A Korver type player could help space the floor more.

[bigfoot]

Frank, I have no idea what you're always referencing to in pop culture.

Uhhh ... Rocky and Bullwinkle

and it's not Dr Jack Ramsey ... think the Dr of Death.

[JTrain]

This isn't directed at anyone in particular, but there seems to be a lot of people wanting their least favorite guys shipped out tomorrow. This won't work. Even if you think Morris, Green, IT, etc. are cancerous, you have to treat them as assets and wait for the right time when we can get the best possible player(s) back for our assets. McD is patient and generally gets great return for assets. This is the approach he is taking to our current guard situation. He can't just say, "Oh god this is so ugly. Get IT out of here." He has to wait for the right move. And we have to watch some more ugly basketball, trusting that McD will pull the trigger when it makes sense to.

[MrMiyagi]

Frank, I have no idea what you're always referencing to in pop culture.

In regards to the Suns, we're just a player or two away from being 4-5 seed in the west. It's definitely not time to overreact and blow everything up because we have a nice core. A low post presence could be useful. Also, we really don't have any knock down 3pt shooting guys. I noticed that most of our guys are shooting under 40% from 3. A Korver type player could help space the floor more.

Or a player or two developing into a go-to guy. Len's got some nice moves and might develop into that post presence. Archie and TJ look like guys who'll eventually be able to get a bucket at the rim consistently. Tyler looks like a guy who can distribute the rock.

I'm not too worried about 3 point shooters, but shot selection is definitely something to worry about. Green shoots 6 threes a game and I'd wouldn't be surprised if 2 of those are unnecessarily taken because they're contested. Bled and Kieff should probably limit their attempts too.

[thamadkant]

Another bad thing about having chuckers on the court is

- Warren and Goodwin, tend to chuck or focus on putting points on the board too when they get minutes.
There are times I have my fingers crossed Goodwin will make the extra pass but because is exposed to Green, Thomas etc producing points through volume shooting, this tells him its "OK" to be this way.

Ennis is the only one who rather rotate the ball, even Len likes to make the pass.. sure he turns it over but when he gets better I can see him kicking out off double teams just fine..

[BurningHeart]

It's fine to have a "shoot 'em if you got 'em" mentality if you have the players who can still be judicious enough to not do stupid **** at inopportune times. We had that during SSOL, for example.

We don't have those players now.

[Kerrsed]

The funny thing is that it seems Green does a better job at hitting his shots when he is fading away off balance with a defender or two right in his face. When he is wide open, he thinks too much and blows it, usually shooting it way too strong.