DRK wrote:Looking at stats is misleading, which pretty much is the sole reason why McD was rapt to sign the 5'9 Kyrie Irving in the first place.
Even still though, I agree with your point. There is nothing that Knight does better than IT that justifies his contract being triple IT's.
The stats are not that "misleading" in this case (and examining empirical evidence extensively and properly is more worthwhile than relying on baseless opinions, although advanced metrics need to be scrutinized rather than accepted blindly), for there is a pretty big difference between Thomas and Knight this season. Namely, Thomas' assists-to-turnover ratio is 2.54:1.00, whereas Knight's assists-to-turnover ratio is 1.62:1.00. In other words, Thomas gives you nearly one more assist per turnover, which is a huge difference given the modest assists volumes of these two players. Thomas' assists-to-turnover ratio this season is acceptable for a point guard; Knight's figure is not acceptable, certainly not with his mediocre-at-best scoring efficiency (a .525 True Shooting Percentage).
Of course, Knight was not supposed to be the Suns' point guard per se this season, but given that Eric Bledsoe's assists-to-turnover ratio is almost as bad, Phoenix did need another guard with more efficient playmaking skills. That guard is Isaiah Thomas, and it is not Brandon Knight. I have been feeling for awhile now that McDonough dumped Thomas unnecessarily, or at least prematurely. I understood and accepted the rationales at the time, last winter, but that move increasingly looks like a mistake. Additionally, consider another major statistical difference: Thomas is averaging 6.1 free throw attempts per game, over two-thirds more per contest than Knight's figure of 3.6 FTA. Both players are very good free throw shooters, but Thomas' vastly superior rate of attempts allows him to compensate for his deficient field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage this season in a way that Knight is not compensating for his deficient field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage. Mainly because of his free throw shooting and free throw volume, Thomas has actually been a rather efficient scorer this season with a .550 True Shooting Percentage. Thomas thus gives you more efficient scoring and more efficient playmaking compared to Knight, meaning that he would elevate your team's Offensive Rating (points scored per possession) more than Knight.
Part of the difference is that Thomas penetrates and weaves or zig-zags off the pick-and-roll, and in transition, much better than Knight. The latter is not very effective at going to his off hand or changing directions, and he penetrates too shallowly. Thomas, conversely, can really cross over and possesses some of the best in-and-out/out-and-in/hesitation dribbles in the league and is able to reach the rim or get into the middle of the lane much more often. Thus he reaches the free throw line far more often than Knight, creates better opportunities for teammates, and is less likely to pass prematurely or force passes, resulting in turnovers.
Intangibly, meanwhile, Thomas is a more energetic player than Knight and more of an emotional spark plug.
Both players are defensive liabilities to one extent or another, they both shoot way too many threes given their percentages, and they both shoot too much from the field for a point guard, at least given their field goal percentages. All that said, Thomas has still offered a much more efficient level of performance this season than Knight.
And given that Thomas' statistics have not been very different, historically, from those of Kyrie Irving, and that Thomas' price tag is much lower, McDonough's signing actually made quite a bit of sense. If anything, it represented a "Moneyball" signing—you scoop up an undervalued asset at a below-market rate (given how his offensive efficiency compares to many other players around the league). The question is whether McDonough then failed to leverage that asset correct, selling too soon and too low rather than benefiting from the player's services for a longer period of time and waiting for him to build greater trade value by pitting prospective buyers against each other over time.
Then again, if Thomas' absence helps the Suns score a top-three draft pick next June, and possibly the first or second selection, and Phoenix picks someone who turns out to be a franchise player or a cornerstone, then matters may ironically turn out for the best. We shall see.