Why do we suck?
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:34 pm
Bledsoe is an above-average point guard. Knight is perhaps the most talented bench player in the league. Dudley is a great defender who can't miss from the perimeter. Tyson is one of the league's best rebounders, and Len is a tremendous bench center. Barbosa is great off the bench, and Tucker provides toughness. Booker and Warren are two of the most promising young wings in the league.
So why do we suuuuuck?
My answer (and I'm interested to hear yours) is - this team is built to fail.
Let's start with Bledsoe. Defense is about effort and heart. His offense is up-and-down and appears to be independent of the team's performance. But his defense comes and goes with the overall performance of the team. When the team struggles, his defense lags, and the team struggles more. The biggest indicator of what's really going on might be the fact that he starts out most games without defensive energy - as if he expects us to lose.
TJ is a confidence player. When confident, he excels on both ends. When not confident, he excels on neither end. He does best when the offense is flowing. But our guards are scorers - they like to hold the ball rather than move it. TJ gets frozen out and his performance hard.
Next, Booker. He's put in a lot of work and wants to be the man. I'm going to ignore the injuries, because honestly, I don't think that's the problem. He's simply being asked to do too much. A winning team does not run through 20-year-olds. He needs to be a third option at this point in his career. At this point in his development, the higher his usage, the worse his EFG%. He needs to do a lot more setting up and spot-up shooting.
Len is a passive player. He does not lead teams; he accentuates what's already going on. He's successful when he sticks to finishing, rebounding, defense. When he's relied on to create offense, his performance suffers on both ends.
Chandler has mastered what Len aims to be. He knows not to try to create offense, so his performance is stable. But he's not really a game changer - just a stable, positive force.
Knight appears to have self-worth issues. To feel good about himself, he needs to feel like he's a big part of a successful team. And because this is psychological, he can play well when the team's playing poorly - because he can play a HUGE part in making a bad team good - or poorly when the team plays well - because he can play a HUGE part in making a good team bad. He needs to be on a team where he can feel like he's the man, and the team has a chance to succeed with him in that role. Maybe as he matures, he'll learn not to give a ****, and at that point he can be Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams.
Just stopping there, I think the issues are at PG and PF. PG, because we have a score-first PG, which makes things hard for Knight and Warren - one of whom can't really feel like he's the man (because if he was, he'd be starting), the other of whom can't get into a flow because he doesn't get the ball in rhythm. As good as Bled is, I don't think he fits the bill for us. I think he's the player we ought to look to move. And for what should he be moved?
PF (and/or C). As I said earlier, Book needs to be in a support role at this stage of his career. Warren can be a go-to option if the offense is flowing, moving. But we need another go-to option. Neither Len or Chandler can fit that bill, and if it's the PG, Warren gets frozen out. So we need a pass-first PG with a big who can be the first option. I don't see Chriss getting there eve-ahem! this year or next. He and Bender and Warren all are rhythm players, support guys. We need a big who can score and pass and we need a distributing PG - and we probably don't need Knight.
This is my thesis. Bled needs to go. Ulis needs to be our PG. Win or lose with a rookie PG, the rest of the team would flow better - Len would be as good or better than Chandler, Warren would be a go-to option, and Booker would be a solid supporting player. In that situation, I could see Knight staying or going (though, realistically, this is not the best place for him). But Ulis needs to start, and Bled needs to be moved for a go-to big. And here are my trade targets:
Greg Monroe
Enes Kanter
Nic Vucevic
Jahlil Okafor
DeMarcus Cousins
Jonas Valanciunas
Derrick Favors
A couple of these guys could be had very cheaply - Monroe, Kanter. Okafor is available and Vuc is believed to be available. Val may be available in a deal that nets them Chandler. Favors may be available, though I speculate that we don't really have what they want (Knight may be a good fit for them, actually). DMC would require giving up both Heat picks is my guess.
Or we could go another direction, and simply move Bled in a deal for a pass-first PG, giving us two legitimate distributors with Ulis off the bench. Targets like this would include:
Ish Smith
Shaun Livingston
Elfrid Payton
TJ McConnell
John Wall
One of these players is not like the others - and would fit much better than the rest, as well. Wall, like Cousins, would likely require forfeiting both Heat picks. It's hard to figure a trade that would work for Livingston, and we would likely only be able to get Smith in a lopsided deal (and I would want Ish behind Ulis, actually). Payton's probably not a great fit because he would only get in Tyler's way.
All of that in mind, here are some deals I think we should consider. Some of these have been proposed here or on the T&T board. Each would obviously require additional moves, with the pieces needing to be moved in parens:
1. Bledsoe/Tucker for Monroe/Brogdon/Picks (Chandler)
2. Knight-Gay-Kanter (Chandler & Bledsoe)
3. Knight, Tucker, 2 2nds for Vucevic & Payton (Chandler & Bledsoe)
4. Bledsoe for Okafor & McConnell (Chandler)
5. Bledsoe, Vucevic & Heat picks to SAC, Knight to ORL, DMC and Watson to PHX
6. Chandler + Heat Pick for Valanciunas (Bledsoe)
7. Knight + Heat Pick for Favors (Bledsoe)
8. Knight for Smith/Baynes/Pick (Chandler & Bledsoe)
9. Len for Livingston + Pick (Bledsoe)
10. Knight + Heat Pick for Okafor & McConnell (Chandler and Bledsoe)
11. Bledsoe, Chriss, Heat Picks for Wall
You can see how some of these deals could be combined. In fact, given the overall scope of my argument, you'd almost have to do multiple deals.
The alternative, of course, is to simply stay the course, tank, and try to grab another centerpiece in the draft. The problem with that, as I see it, is that so many of the guys at the top of the draft are forwards - and we already have three young forwards as it is. Would Ball really be an upgrade over Ulis? Maybe. Fultz would be, but we'd need the #1 pick, which you simply can't expect to happen. In any case, we need a go-to PF/C. Even if they're not a particularly good one (ahem, Monroe and Kanter), they fit what we need to make the chemistry work.
That is a very long post. I just couldn't find a good place to put it. Interested to hear what YOU think is wrong with this team and what can be done to fix it.
So why do we suuuuuck?
My answer (and I'm interested to hear yours) is - this team is built to fail.
Let's start with Bledsoe. Defense is about effort and heart. His offense is up-and-down and appears to be independent of the team's performance. But his defense comes and goes with the overall performance of the team. When the team struggles, his defense lags, and the team struggles more. The biggest indicator of what's really going on might be the fact that he starts out most games without defensive energy - as if he expects us to lose.
TJ is a confidence player. When confident, he excels on both ends. When not confident, he excels on neither end. He does best when the offense is flowing. But our guards are scorers - they like to hold the ball rather than move it. TJ gets frozen out and his performance hard.
Next, Booker. He's put in a lot of work and wants to be the man. I'm going to ignore the injuries, because honestly, I don't think that's the problem. He's simply being asked to do too much. A winning team does not run through 20-year-olds. He needs to be a third option at this point in his career. At this point in his development, the higher his usage, the worse his EFG%. He needs to do a lot more setting up and spot-up shooting.
Len is a passive player. He does not lead teams; he accentuates what's already going on. He's successful when he sticks to finishing, rebounding, defense. When he's relied on to create offense, his performance suffers on both ends.
Chandler has mastered what Len aims to be. He knows not to try to create offense, so his performance is stable. But he's not really a game changer - just a stable, positive force.
Knight appears to have self-worth issues. To feel good about himself, he needs to feel like he's a big part of a successful team. And because this is psychological, he can play well when the team's playing poorly - because he can play a HUGE part in making a bad team good - or poorly when the team plays well - because he can play a HUGE part in making a good team bad. He needs to be on a team where he can feel like he's the man, and the team has a chance to succeed with him in that role. Maybe as he matures, he'll learn not to give a ****, and at that point he can be Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams.
Just stopping there, I think the issues are at PG and PF. PG, because we have a score-first PG, which makes things hard for Knight and Warren - one of whom can't really feel like he's the man (because if he was, he'd be starting), the other of whom can't get into a flow because he doesn't get the ball in rhythm. As good as Bled is, I don't think he fits the bill for us. I think he's the player we ought to look to move. And for what should he be moved?
PF (and/or C). As I said earlier, Book needs to be in a support role at this stage of his career. Warren can be a go-to option if the offense is flowing, moving. But we need another go-to option. Neither Len or Chandler can fit that bill, and if it's the PG, Warren gets frozen out. So we need a pass-first PG with a big who can be the first option. I don't see Chriss getting there eve-ahem! this year or next. He and Bender and Warren all are rhythm players, support guys. We need a big who can score and pass and we need a distributing PG - and we probably don't need Knight.
This is my thesis. Bled needs to go. Ulis needs to be our PG. Win or lose with a rookie PG, the rest of the team would flow better - Len would be as good or better than Chandler, Warren would be a go-to option, and Booker would be a solid supporting player. In that situation, I could see Knight staying or going (though, realistically, this is not the best place for him). But Ulis needs to start, and Bled needs to be moved for a go-to big. And here are my trade targets:
Greg Monroe
Enes Kanter
Nic Vucevic
Jahlil Okafor
DeMarcus Cousins
Jonas Valanciunas
Derrick Favors
A couple of these guys could be had very cheaply - Monroe, Kanter. Okafor is available and Vuc is believed to be available. Val may be available in a deal that nets them Chandler. Favors may be available, though I speculate that we don't really have what they want (Knight may be a good fit for them, actually). DMC would require giving up both Heat picks is my guess.
Or we could go another direction, and simply move Bled in a deal for a pass-first PG, giving us two legitimate distributors with Ulis off the bench. Targets like this would include:
Ish Smith
Shaun Livingston
Elfrid Payton
TJ McConnell
John Wall
One of these players is not like the others - and would fit much better than the rest, as well. Wall, like Cousins, would likely require forfeiting both Heat picks. It's hard to figure a trade that would work for Livingston, and we would likely only be able to get Smith in a lopsided deal (and I would want Ish behind Ulis, actually). Payton's probably not a great fit because he would only get in Tyler's way.
All of that in mind, here are some deals I think we should consider. Some of these have been proposed here or on the T&T board. Each would obviously require additional moves, with the pieces needing to be moved in parens:
1. Bledsoe/Tucker for Monroe/Brogdon/Picks (Chandler)
2. Knight-Gay-Kanter (Chandler & Bledsoe)
3. Knight, Tucker, 2 2nds for Vucevic & Payton (Chandler & Bledsoe)
4. Bledsoe for Okafor & McConnell (Chandler)
5. Bledsoe, Vucevic & Heat picks to SAC, Knight to ORL, DMC and Watson to PHX
6. Chandler + Heat Pick for Valanciunas (Bledsoe)
7. Knight + Heat Pick for Favors (Bledsoe)
8. Knight for Smith/Baynes/Pick (Chandler & Bledsoe)
9. Len for Livingston + Pick (Bledsoe)
10. Knight + Heat Pick for Okafor & McConnell (Chandler and Bledsoe)
11. Bledsoe, Chriss, Heat Picks for Wall
You can see how some of these deals could be combined. In fact, given the overall scope of my argument, you'd almost have to do multiple deals.
The alternative, of course, is to simply stay the course, tank, and try to grab another centerpiece in the draft. The problem with that, as I see it, is that so many of the guys at the top of the draft are forwards - and we already have three young forwards as it is. Would Ball really be an upgrade over Ulis? Maybe. Fultz would be, but we'd need the #1 pick, which you simply can't expect to happen. In any case, we need a go-to PF/C. Even if they're not a particularly good one (ahem, Monroe and Kanter), they fit what we need to make the chemistry work.
That is a very long post. I just couldn't find a good place to put it. Interested to hear what YOU think is wrong with this team and what can be done to fix it.
