Suns remaining committed to the rebuild

[Smitty731]

Hey guys!

Wrote a piece for RealGM about how the Suns should stick to the rebuild and not try to double down and rush things as they have in the past. Curious to hear your thoughts!

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/244258/Why-The-Suns-Need-To-Remain-Committed-To-Rebuilding-Timetable

Thanks!

Smitty

[LacosteM]

Hey guys!

Wrote a piece for RealGM about how the Suns should stick to the rebuild and not try to double down and rush things as they have in the past. Curious to hear your thoughts!

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/244258/Why-The-Suns-Need-To-Remain-Committed-To-Rebuilding-Timetable

Thanks!

Smitty

I mostly agree with you, altough I believe that one of the main imperatives should be trading Knight. He is cancerous to the team.

[bwgood77]

Hey guys!

Wrote a piece for RealGM about how the Suns should stick to the rebuild and not try to double down and rush things as they have in the past. Curious to hear your thoughts!

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/244258/Why-The-Suns-Need-To-Remain-Committed-To-Rebuilding-Timetable

Thanks!

Smitty

I mostly agree with you, altough I believe that one of the main imperatives should be trading Knight. He is cancerous to the team.

I agree with LaCoste. Throw Ulis in that Knight spot. Bender isn't really ready to back up center as he isn't a great rebounder, but he can play 3-5 but should probably play most at the 4. He is a really good perimeter defender so he could guard any smaller stretch 4s.

But I guess if Bender is playing with Williams (who is a good rebounder and plays inside) it's just semantics what positions you want to call them.

However, it's a great article, much better than I read anywhere else from an NBA writer that covers the league.

The Suns fans here on the forum are divided on everything, though the large majority want Knight gone VERY badly and most actually like Chandler and want him to stay, at least for now, but it would probably depend on the proposed deal.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

My biggest complaint with the article is the description of our core as Booker, Bender, Chriss and to a lesser extent, Warren. I think Warren is affirmatively part of the core, and that "to a lesser extent" would be Ulis and Len. I know we're getting a little ahead of ourselves talking about Tyler as a potential core piece, but the team looks better - dramatically better - whenever he's on the court.

Just my 2 cents. Otherwise, it was a fine read!

[bwgood77]

My biggest complaint with the article is the description of our core as Booker, Bender, Chriss and to a lesser extent, Warren. I think Warren is affirmatively part of the core, and that "to a lesser extent" would be Ulis and Len. I know we're getting a little ahead of ourselves talking about Tyler as a potential core piece, but the team looks better - dramatically better - whenever he's on the court.

Just my 2 cents. Otherwise, it was a fine read!

Yeah, for me, Warren is definitely in that group and should be second (or first).

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

My biggest complaint with the article is the description of our core as Booker, Bender, Chriss and to a lesser extent, Warren. I think Warren is affirmatively part of the core, and that "to a lesser extent" would be Ulis and Len. I know we're getting a little ahead of ourselves talking about Tyler as a potential core piece, but the team looks better - dramatically better - whenever he's on the court.

Just my 2 cents. Otherwise, it was a fine read!

Yeah, for me, Warren is definitely in that group and should be second (or first).

I love TJ's game. Disruptive yet efficient. If we wanted to build a team around his talents, I couldn't think of a better PG to put next to him than Ulis due to his tendency to steal dat ball. A defense predicated on forcing turnovers and scoring efficiently at the other end. That may not be playoff basketball, necessarily, but neither was a team based on the long ball before the Warriors did it.

And that, my friends, is the only reason I would even give a second thought to trading for Nerlens. Stealz boi!

[TeamTragic]

Hey guys!

Wrote a piece for RealGM about how the Suns should stick to the rebuild and not try to double down and rush things as they have in the past. Curious to hear your thoughts!

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/244258/Why-The-Suns-Need-To-Remain-Committed-To-Rebuilding-Timetable

Thanks!

Smitty

Nice work Smitty! As a longtime SUNS fan I agree with your article. Patience during a rebuild is a virtue

[Qwigglez]

Great article Smitty. Hate that picture of McD though

[lilfishi22]

I never quite looked at the Chriss pick/trade as a doubling up on the PF position but now that you've made connection between the tripling down on the PG position a couple seasons back and this, it is a little troubling. That said, we didn't give up much assets to move up a few spots and it was a big men heavy draft and we arguably took two of the highest potential bigs in that draft.

I do have to disagree with you about keeping both Bledsoe and Knight. If it was up to me, I'd move both for picks and youth (Stanimal?). I don't like either's playing style since I don't think they make other players on the team better and Knight has just been a terrible fit while Bledsoe will always have those injury concerns.

[Smitty731]

Great article Smitty. Hate that picture of McD though

Ha! I wish I could pick the pics that get attached!

[Smitty731]

I never quite looked at the Chriss pick/trade as a doubling up on the PF position but now that you've made connection between the tripling down on the PG position a couple seasons back and this, it is a little troubling. That said, we didn't give up much assets to move up a few spots and it was a big men heavy draft and we arguably took two of the highest potential bigs in that draft.

I do have to disagree with you about keeping both Bledsoe and Knight. If it was up to me, I'd move both for picks and youth (Stanimal?). I don't like either's playing style since I don't think they make other players on the team better and Knight has just been a terrible fit while Bledsoe will always have those injury concerns.

Fair on the PGs. I wouldn't be opposed, but I don't see them as super tradeable pieces (had to cut that length reasons) and they aren't necessarily out of line with the rest of the team's timeline. But I can totally understand where you all might be coming from.

And I don't hate the idea of grabbing both Bender and Chriss, but the duplication across the various iterations of this roster is very concerning to me.

[Smitty731]

And I want to say thanks for all the kind words. I appreciate you all taking the time to read the article and share your thoughts!

[MathiasPW]

Great article as it clearly has more accurate information than most of the stuff we read out there.

There is an issue with the concept of trading vets/clearing minutes for the youth, though, and that is McDonough.

Since the day he took over he states very clearly that he intends to rebuild while competing, as he is totally convinced that is the only sustainable model to success.

Most of his actions back that up, but not all. He tried sucking twice. First time when he sent out Gortat, and that backfired heavily. Second time has been this year, because the Free Agents he has signed are not really signings to make you more competitive.

So while McDonough has been juggling between competing (Chandler, trying Aldridge and Lebron) and rebuilding (drafting well and getting young pieces and picks on most trades), it is not yet clear he will have the guts to go all in in one direction or the other.

[GMATCallahan]

Hey guys!

Wrote a piece for RealGM about how the Suns should stick to the rebuild and not try to double down and rush things as they have in the past. Curious to hear your thoughts!

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/244258/Why-The-Suns-Need-To-Remain-Committed-To-Rebuilding-Timetable

Thanks!

Smitty

A) You completely ignore rookie second-round pick Tyler Ulis, who, while undersized, possesses the best playmaking skill on the roster and is worthy of exploration, at least as the Suns' backup point guard.

B) Although the Suns cannot give either guard away, they need to consider trading Bledsoe and Knight in addition to Chandler and Tucker. Bledsoe is worthy of trade consideration primarily because he constitutes the Suns' most attractive asset, the one player that could spur a bidding war among suitors. In Knight's case, he is highly inefficient and not worthy his salary, especially in his present reserve role in which he has struggled badly. Again, the Suns cannot give away Bledsoe and Knight the way that they did with Thomas and perhaps Dragic, but these guards may possess greater value to other teams.

C) I would not say that Gerald Green represented an "inside/outside weapon" three years ago. He was an explosive scorer, but dunking on the fast break or the occasional drive does not represent an "inside" game in my view. Green was basically a long-range bomber whose speed and spectacular leaping ability also allowed him to be a dynamic finisher on the break, and although he was most dangerous when spotting up, he could create his own jump shot to some extent. But he was not an "inside" player.

D) I would not say that Markieff Morris possessed a "completely different style" from Channing Frye. Like Frye, Morris was something of a "space-out" power forward, and he did shoot some threes (2.2 per game in '14-'15, for example). However, he did not attempt nearly as many as Frye and he was quite inefficient (.318) with the shot, and unlike Frye, Morris possessed much more of a game on the block (especially the high post), from which he would makes some moves, shoot turn-and-face jumpers, and pass. Yes, the Suns failed to flow as well without Frye, but Morris was not a traditional power forward, either, and he did play a major role on the surprisingly successful '13-'14 team.

E) As I note in post #60 of the following thread, "where it all went wrong" was actually toward the end of Steve Nash's glorious tenure with the franchise. The Suns missed the playoffs in Nash's last two seasons in Phoenix (in three of his last four years as a Sun, actually) in a futile attempt to compete for an eighth seed with a very limited roster led by two players (Nash and Grant Hill) who were both in or entering their late thirties and who were both going to be free agents after the lockout-shortened 2012 campaign. (Actually, Hill was also a free agent after the 2011 season before the Suns re-signed him for one more year at the age of thirty-nine, after knee surgery, with Nash only having one more year left on his contract.)

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=1492533&start=40

In effect, Phoenix needlessly delayed its rebuilding process. Then the surprising success of the '13-'14 team (albeit one that still failed to make the playoffs and scored the Suns yet another bottom-of-the-lottery pick) created more ambiguity that resulted in further delays. So I agree with you, Smitty, that Phoenix needs to remain committed to the rebuilding effort, but that commitment should have begun at least five years ago, and it may now need to involve trading Knight and/or Bledsoe while giving playing time to Ulis, too.

[nevetsov]

In my ideal scenario, we'd have an opening night depth chart next season of:

Bledsoe, Ulis
Booker,
Warren,
Bender, Chriss
Len, Williams (I'm ok if Chandler stays too)

I'd like to use the rest of this season to develop:
* Consistency from Booker, Warren and Len
* Health from Bledsoe
* Chemistry between the subs (DLeague with Jones JR?)

Ideally:
* Warren becomes a 20-25ppg scorer
* Booker provides between 15-20 ppg and improves playmaking as a primary ballhandler
* Bledsoe transitions the playmaking to Booker, focuses on D and stepping up when needed (just like he's doing now)
* BledBook combine nightly for 35/10/10.
* Len gives us consistent 15/10/2
* Bender becomes an elite weak side defender, improves offensive involvement over time.
* Ulis runs a wicked bench mob with Chriss.

Dreams are free.

[GMATCallahan]

In my ideal scenario, we'd have an opening night depth chart next season of:

Bledsoe, Ulis
Booker,
Warren,
Bender, Chriss
Len, Williams (I'm ok if Chandler stays too)

I'd like to use the rest of this season to develop:
* Consistency from Booker, Warren and Len
* Health from Bledsoe
* Chemistry between the subs (DLeague with Jones JR?)

Ideally:
* Warren becomes a 20-25ppg scorer
* Booker provides between 15-20 ppg and improves playmaking as a primary ballhandler
* Bledsoe transitions the playmaking to Booker, focuses on D and stepping up when needed (just like he's doing now)
* BledBook combine nightly for 35/10/10.
* Len gives us consistent 15/10/2
* Bender becomes an elite weak side defender, improves offensive involvement over time.
* Ulis runs a wicked bench mob with Chriss.

Dreams are free.

... not sure if that aspect is plausible—or even desirable. In time, I believe that Booker can be a good playmaker and will be able to do some (not all) of James Harden currently does. But I do not believe that he is ready for "primary" responsibilities as a ball-handler and playmaker right now or that such a role would be especially good for the team.

Regardless, I certainly do not believe that such a transition can or will happen with Bledsoe on board. Three years from now, conversely, when Bledsoe's current Phoenix contract will be over and Booker will be twenty-three, that scenario would be more realistic.

[GMATCallahan]

I never quite looked at the Chriss pick/trade as a doubling up on the PF position but now that you've made connection between the tripling down on the PG position a couple seasons back and this, it is a little troubling. That said, we didn't give up much assets to move up a few spots and it was a big men heavy draft and we arguably took two of the highest potential bigs in that draft.

I do have to disagree with you about keeping both Bledsoe and Knight. If it was up to me, I'd move both for picks and youth (Stanimal?). I don't like either's playing style since I don't think they make other players on the team better and Knight has just been a terrible fit while Bledsoe will always have those injury concerns.

Fair on the PGs. I wouldn't be opposed, but I don't see them as super tradeable pieces (had to cut that length reasons) and they aren't necessarily out of line with the rest of the team's timeline. But I can totally understand where you all might be coming from.

And I don't hate the idea of grabbing both Bender and Chriss, but the duplication across the various iterations of this roster is very concerning to me.

Personally, I am not concerned about "duplication" in that case, because Chriss and Bender are both teenage prospects, not established players. No one really knows what, if anything, they will eventually amount to, so part of Phoenix's philosophy (I am sure) is that by selecting both of them, there is a reasonable chance that at least one of them pans out and becomes the proverbial "power forward of the future." Conversely, if the Suns had just taken one of them and placed all their eggs in one basket, their odds of filling the power forward spot long-term would have been much slimmer, simply because one bust is more likely than two busts. Moreover, neither player may be worthy of 25-30 minutes per game (in terms of value) for some time to come, so there should be ample opportunity to try and develop both power forwards, especially given that they could both play some small forward and perhaps center.

Regardless, teams should rarely draft based on positional needs. Given that we are talking about very young players who are not at all established at the NBA level and whose chances in general are spotty, the wisest philosophy is just to select the best talent available. If both Chriss and Bender show substantial promise, the Suns could always trade one of them to fill a need elsewhere. Even, then, though, their versatility could allow them to play together, perhaps with one serving as a Sixth Man.

As for Bledsoe, I do believe that—despite his history of knee surgeries—he would be attractive to a number of clubs and that his trade value is on the rise due to his recent prolific performances. Indeed, he now seems to be over his latest knee surgery.

[bwgood77]

I never quite looked at the Chriss pick/trade as a doubling up on the PF position but now that you've made connection between the tripling down on the PG position a couple seasons back and this, it is a little troubling. That said, we didn't give up much assets to move up a few spots and it was a big men heavy draft and we arguably took two of the highest potential bigs in that draft.

I do have to disagree with you about keeping both Bledsoe and Knight. If it was up to me, I'd move both for picks and youth (Stanimal?). I don't like either's playing style since I don't think they make other players on the team better and Knight has just been a terrible fit while Bledsoe will always have those injury concerns.

Fair on the PGs. I wouldn't be opposed, but I don't see them as super tradeable pieces (had to cut that length reasons) and they aren't necessarily out of line with the rest of the team's timeline. But I can totally understand where you all might be coming from.

And I don't hate the idea of grabbing both Bender and Chriss, but the duplication across the various iterations of this roster is very concerning to me.

Personally, I am not concerned about "duplication" in that case, because Chriss and Bender are both teenage prospects, not established players. No one really knows what, if anything, they will eventually amount to, so part of Phoenix's philosophy (I am sure) is that by selecting both of them, there is a reasonable chance that at least one of them pans out and becomes the proverbial "power forward of the future." Conversely, if the Suns had just taken one of them and placed all their eggs in one basket, their odds of filling the power forward spot long-term would have been much slimmer, simply because one bust is more likely than two busts. Moreover, neither player may be worthy of 25-30 minutes per game (in terms of value) for some time to come, so there should be ample opportunity to try and develop both power forwards, especially given that they could both play some small forward and perhaps center.

Regardless, teams should rarely draft based on positional needs. Given that we are talking about very young players who are not at all established at the NBA level and whose chances in general are spotty, the wisest philosophy is just to select the best talent available. If both Chriss and Bender show substantial promise, the Suns could always trade one of them to fill a need elsewhere. Even, then, though, their versatility could allow them to play together, perhaps with one serving as a Sixth Man.

As for Bledsoe, I do believe that—despite his history of knee surgeries—he would be attractive to a number of clubs and that his trade value is on the rise due to his recent prolific performances. Indeed, he now seems to be over his latest knee surgery.

I also think, in time, that Chriss and Bender can both play anywhere from 3-5, particularly in small ball lineups which are becoming more prevalent. Chriss has shown he can rebound and isn't intimated by anyone, the way he played Porzingis to Carmelo Anthony. Chriss is also quick enough to play on the perimeter, and Bender moves well enough laterally to do the same and with his length he is so disruptive, particularly for guards stretching the floor. I think they work will be able to work very well together in all kinds of lineups.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Good article dude. I agree with the general premise. Id add im down to trade either or both of knight and bledsoe. I also dont see duplicity with chriss and bender. Their skill sets are so different i think they fit fine together.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

[GMATCallahan]

I also think, in time, that Chriss and Bender can both play anywhere from 3-5, particularly in small ball lineups which are becoming more prevalent. Chriss has shown he can rebound and isn't intimated by anyone, the way he played Porzingis to Draymond Green. Chriss is also quick enough to play on the perimeter, and Bender moves well enough laterally to do the same and with his length he is so disruptive, particularly for guards stretching the floor. I think they work will be able to work very well together in all kinds of lineups.

You know, twenty and thirty years ago, many teams would have hardly even considered Chriss and Bender "power forwards" at all—too thin, not enough muscle. Clubs probably would have used them at that spot at times, but given their physiques and also their ball-handling and rangy shooting skill, most teams would have seen them as natural small forwards.

So, yeah, they are players who should create plenty of versatility and flexibility. Think of former Suns such as Danny Manning and Clifford Robinson who, over the course of their NBA careers and their time in Phoenix, matched up at small forward, power forward, and center depending upon the lineup, the situation, the coaching strategy, and so forth.

Manning constitutes a great example as perhaps the league's top reserve in the late nineties. (He received the Sixth Man of the Year Award in 1998 and probably deserved it in 1997, too.) Late in the '96-'97 season, as the Suns surged to become one of the league's hottest teams, he was usually playing center—and never small forward—in lineups that featured either four guards or three guards and a natural small forward (Cedric Ceballos). But in '97-'98, when the Suns overwhelmingly featured more conventional lineups with two natural big men and sometimes three, Manning probably matched up as a small forward most often and rarely as a center. Occasionally, head coach Danny Ainge even experimented with Manning as a "shooting guard" that year, and in earlier decades, teams might have made similar experiments with Chriss and Bender. I recall, not too long ago, viewing a playoff game from the mid-eighties where the Celtics featured four natural front-court players simultaneously (aided, of course, by the versatility of Larry Bird). Those occasions proved rare, much like the occasions where the Suns used Manning as a "shooting guard," but they existed.

Of course, Bird and Manning both spent four years in college and led their universities to the NCAA title game (and to the title in Manning's case). Will Chriss and/or Bender ever reach an All-Star level? We shall see, but they are very young, and their versatility means that they should be able to play together in much the same way as Manning and Clifford Robinson played together for Phoenix. Late in the third overtime session of Phoenix's quadruple overtime victory at Portland on November 14, 1997, Manning (who scored 35 points on 14-21 FG and 7-8 FT, plus 10 rebounds) posted up the Blazers' small forward, the smaller Stacey Augmon, on the right block and drew a double-team from Portland's power forward, Brian Grant, who had been guarding Robinson on the perimeter, high on the right wing. Manning delivered a bounce pass to the open Robinson, who buried the game-tying three-pointer. (The other players on the court for the Suns were guards Kevin Johnson and Jason Kidd and center John "Hot Rod" Williams.)

Johnson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)
1:14

Robinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Manning 3 AST)
1:04

127 - 127

http://stats.nba.com/game/#!/0029700110/playbyplay/

http://www.databasebasketball.com/teams/boxscore.htm?yr=1997&b=19971114&tm=POR

I could see Bender and Chriss one day playing off each other in similar fashion. Certainly, that functional flexibility would be optimal, although we will see if—in this New Age—they can develop post games like Manning and Robinson.