RealGM

(I posted this on the GB, but also wanted to place it here at "home")

Yes, yet another post about the NBA lottery and the rigging conspiracy theory that seems to forever ride shotgun with it. After this one I'm done, I promise.....until next year.

I tried last week with a topic, to get those that believe it's all rigged or half rigged or occasionally rigged to explain how the NBA pulls off this mischief...the possible nuts & bolts of the operation. The thread (of course) quickly devolved into reasons why the NBA would want to fix the numbers, not the how. Repeated ramblings about Ewing/Knicks 30+ years ago, the Cavs improbable string of #1s, Anthony Davis, Derrick Rose & Chicago, how the league couldn't possibly allow random chance to assign draft positions because of the maaaaassive moneys attached to getting high draft picks in right markets (phhhtt). How obviously rigged this '17 lottery was, especially with the Lakers keeping their pick given they had less than a 50/50 chance at staying in the top 3...and so on.

The best internal workings theory I read of how the NBA actually does it, was that it's some sort of magic show...some type of slight of hand with the ping pong balls in order to get the young talent where they can produce the highest profits for the league. Talk of weighted balls? Heated balls? Some vague idea about variable manipulation of the lottery machine during the drawing that could somehow specify certain numbers to come up when needed? No strong, focused how-they-do-it opinions...rather they just do, because.

In the end, it is just about the numbers, so here are some of the actual numbers on display. I've focused mainly on the Laker-Suns angle, because that's what I hear most often and loudest is that the NBA made sure LA kept their pick due to Magic Johnson love and/or Lonzo Ball and/or Lakers winning is needed for the league's success....blah, blah.

So you can go through the number drawings round by round to help you decide what's a logical reason why the Lakers kept their pick...or it might help you explain how the NBA rigged it for a particular outcome...which exact balls/numbers were ****ed with, when were they deployed or suppressed for the needed bottom line results??? (Adam Silver rubs his hands together in evil glee). Then! Tell me what you believe the NBA did for the Lakers, by the numbers.

...but! Probably not. This'll likely produce more ranting about past "curious" results. Talk of mathematical "improbabilities" from people that don't seem to know a lick about how chance actually works. Money, money, money. The "backfire" effect will make the believers of the conspiracy, believe it with even more conviction.

Critical thinking? Occam's Razor? Logic? Well that's the beauty of conspiracies and why they're exploding - they don't need to be logical.


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Sixers were certainly poised to push out LA also. Philly's numbers didn't come up, but you know what happened. Their numbers...


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for contextual listening pleasure

clearly rigged

I'm a lottery truther. A multibillion dollar business is trying to make the most money it can. What's ironic is that they turn away fans doing it that its hurting their brand. Not much separates the WWE and NBA at the moment.

ginobiliflops wrote:I'm a lottery truther. A multibillion dollar business is trying to make the most money it can. What's ironic is that they turn away fans doing it that its hurting their brand. Not much separates the WWE and NBA at the moment.

Pretty solid evidence against rigging unless, of course...

hahahaha

Take the Trump approach, it's rigged if we don't win.

I DO NOT think the lottery is currently rigged.

I DO think that the lottery was rigged AT TIMES under David Stern.

Wasn't it the Sac pick which jumped us not the Philly pick?

RunDogGun wrote:Wasn't it the Sac pick which jumped us not the Philly pick?

Yes

[gfycat][/gfycat]Again, Great use of charts, percentages, numerics, etc. However.......Just posting that to show mathematical probabilities in no way proves that they wouldn't tamper with the system, much less have the immense incentive to control the outcome as well.IN the end, The motive is there. Do any of you guys truly believe that a multi billion dollar business model would leave their profit margin up to mere chance? Do you really think that after signing a $92 billion dollar t.v. deal that they would just sit by idly with their fingers crossed.

Maybe you are right, Maybe it's all just random luck. Just like all the big market teams were immensely lucky consistently right at the exact time when they needed it most, In order to boost a struggling teams viewing numbers, attendance, etc. And even though it's all just consistently random coincidence that always results in a boost in the leagues profit margin, Maybe just maybe.......even with the posted charts they make readily available to the public to support their pristine process, Perhaps the might also have some very smart statisicians at their disposal that purposely present these numeric for the exact purpose of misdirection.

But honestly, Why would they do that? I mean all that's at stake is hundreds of billions of dollars in T.V. revenue. Who wouldn't leave that up to mere chance and random probability?

Chris, I have the utmost of respect for how gifted you seem to be with numeric, etc. But don't you suppose at least just a little bit that the league has highly intelligent people as well that might IF the incentive is there( $ perhaps a few hundred billion in t.v. revenue) they might purposely post fake statistics to the public to satiate any concerns of potential tampering.

I just have a hard time believing that any Big Business model such as the nba would leave that large of a profit margin up to mere chance without having a "failsafe" or control system of some sort in place to ensure continuing success.

It would be like saying the casinos all leave their games of probability( and their overall profits) up to chance. I mean, don't they say "the house always wins" . Is it really so different with the nbas' lottery system? They most likely feed the media just what they want them to believe, knowing people will most likely just accept it as truth, because it's just easier to live with rather than being disappointed with an outcome that we have no power to change anyways.

Sometimes the most obvious truth is not all that complicated at all. It's right in front of our faces, But very clever businessmen usethe media,etc. as a tool of misdirection to keep us distracted from the truth.

To Zelaznyrules , Yes they are already making billions of dollars, The point that I think you are missing is that there is far more of that t.v. money at risk for the league by them just sitting back and not stepping in to make sure that a struggling big market team gets better quicker, AND through the draft. How many fans are lost when teams are constantly bad. If your team( even a big market team) is consistently bad, and losing a lot, Less people watch. This results in a large portion of lost revenue from lower viewing numbers leading to lower ratings and lower profit margins.

Now as for the risk to their accounting firms image, Ernst and Young has already been involved in a tax fraud payoff scandal with the federal tax commission for millions in unpaid taxes. In the end, there are a lot of people on this forum who if you oppose their mode of conformist thinking, you are crazy or in danger of being flame, or worse.

With that being said, I am now done trying to present another perspective for discussion on this matter. Believe what you choose to believe. We all have differing opinions at times. Apparantly just not free thought.

bwgood77 wrote:

Ghost of Kleine wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:
Not worth arguing with people who have their mind set on extremely crazy conspiracy theories. Not that you are arguing...but your evidence will never be enough for some who don't think everything through.

Bgood, I'm kind of disappointed in your unwillingness to be objective. What really makes what I'm saying all that crazy really? So you guys have continually posted numeric lotto stats that supposedly prove beyond any doubt that there could possibly be any tampering at all, Except that the information filtered to you guys through the media could of just as easily been altered (by the league) to support your opinion of " no wrong doing" Or is it that the nba as an entity has consistently proven to be beyond reproach??


Tim Donaghy scandal, VEGAS betting scandals, Lotto accounting firm fraud payoff scandals, etc. Perhaps it's just wrong to question anything? Afterall.....The NBA has always had such a " pristine" reputation, And would never do anything questionable or immoral just for profit.

Even when hundreds of billions of dollars in T.V. revenue are at stake.

Let's just talk about our draft prospect discussion and stop derailing with crazy conspiracy theories. There is at least one thread on the general board about the topic so if you'd like to discuss i can find that and link you to it if you'd like.

Bgood, That's fine. I already stated my opinion, I wouldn't say that the discussion was derailing anything, I was just trying to present a different perspective But you are the mod.....So as you wish. I do find it sad though that you call someone elses opinion crazy or extreme just because they might not fit your beliefs,I have never said anything like that to anyone else on this forum just for stating their opinion but whatever,I can see you are very impassioned over your opinion, and good for you Consider the discussion finished.

TV deal is set in stone. 9 years, $24 billion. That doesn't change for the NBA no matter who plays where and which teams are good. I'm sure some may suggest that the deals that are reported are manipulated by the media and all sources of those facts to hide the fact that the networks will pay even more than those outrageous amounts if particular teams get high draft picks, but I doubt that's the case.

bwgood77 wrote:TV deal is set in stone. 9 years, $24 billion. That doesn't change for the NBA no matter who plays where and which teams are good. I'm sure some may suggest that the deals that are reported are manipulated by the media and all sources of those facts to hide the fact that the networks will pay even more than those outrageous amounts if particular teams get high draft picks, but I doubt that's the case.

hat's a fair and reasonable statement. I believe they do care about viewing numbers and ratings as it pertains to profitability. And I would wager that a team that is on an upswing might garner more ratings and attendance than a dull or struggling team of course. So I would think they might use the media more as a tool to promote venues, etc. Or to garner more interest to stagnate teams perhaps.



But that is just one opinion, nothing more.