NBA Draft and NCAA Basketball

[Walt_Uoob]

This is Woj's early 2018 draft predictions. He also places teams where he thinks they'll pick.
It makes me sick to think the C's can, AGAIN, get another elite prospect thanks to that Nets trade (He has them getting Bagley @ 2). I really hope Brooklyn shocks people and fights for a playoff spot.

To make it worse, they get the Lakers pick (the one we traded for Knight) if it falls between 2 and 5, so they could end up with like Bagley AND Doncic or something.

I hope they don't get two top 5 picks. That would be salt in the wounds.

It's another reason for us to tank this year IMO. Not only the salt in the wounds aspect, but the fact that if we're able to successfully rebuild into contenders, it's the Celtics and Sixers we're going to be facing in the finals in the 2020s. If Boston gets two more top-5 picks they're going to be such a powerhouse. If enough bad teams push the Lakers and Nets out of the top 5-6, Boston becomes a lot less scary, especially if the Laker pick doesn't convey at all.

[bwgood77]

Wow Duke's stacked this year. Good year for us to suck, I'd be glad to take any of Bagley, Porter, Doncic, Ayton, and Bamba.

It was interesting to read Givony say any of 7 guys could go #1, including Robert Williams and Miles Bridges along with the other five. It seems like most would guess neither of those guys even go top 5. But of course any of those college guys could look like Skal and drop from potentially #1 a long way.

[darealjuice]

Wow Duke's stacked this year. Good year for us to suck, I'd be glad to take any of Bagley, Porter, Doncic, Ayton, and Bamba.

It was interesting to read Givony say any of 7 guys could go #1, including Robert Williams and Miles Bridges along with the other five. It seems like most would guess neither of those guys even go top 5. But of course any of those college guys could look like Skal and drop from potentially #1 a long way.

I don't buy either of them as contenders for #1 unless they made some very serious improvement over the Summer. I think the 2018 draft hype being built up might be a bit much though. I think Bagley deserves all the hype he's getting, but everyone in this class, including him, has their flaws.

Unless Luka Doncic has an awful season with Real Madrid while Llull is recovering, I just can't see him dropping out of the top 5, he's been too good for an 18 year old playing against grown men not to be a top pick. I can see Bamba dropping a bit depending on how raw he looks at the college level, but probably not too far because his measurables are insane. Ayton could drop a bit if he's all dunks and post game, no defense, and as lethargic as rumored, although I can't see Sean Miller letting that happen all year. Porter has been called a heavy isolation player and there's been questions about how consistent his range is, I doubt he does but he could drop if he has a bad season for Mizzou. Bagley's range is still developing and he doesn't have the same caliber of measurables as the rest of the top prospects do, even though I have him at #1 right now.

[bwgood77]

Wow Duke's stacked this year. Good year for us to suck, I'd be glad to take any of Bagley, Porter, Doncic, Ayton, and Bamba.

It was interesting to read Givony say any of 7 guys could go #1, including Robert Williams and Miles Bridges along with the other five. It seems like most would guess neither of those guys even go top 5. But of course any of those college guys could look like Skal and drop from potentially #1 a long way.

I don't buy either of them as contenders for #1 unless they made some very serious improvement over the Summer. I think the 2018 draft hype being built up might be a bit much though. I think Bagley deserves all the hype he's getting, but everyone in this class, including him, has their flaws.

Unless Luka Doncic has an awful season with Real Madrid while Llull is recovering, I just can't see him dropping out of the top 5, he's been too good for an 18 year old playing against grown men not to be a top pick. I can see Bamba dropping a bit depending on how raw he looks at the college level, but probably not too far because his measurables are insane. Ayton could drop a bit if he's all dunks and post game, no defense, and as lethargic as rumored, although I can't see Sean Miller letting that happen all year. Porter has been called a heavy isolation player and there's been questions about how consistent his range is, I doubt he does but he could drop if he has a bad season for Mizzou. Bagley's range is still developing and he doesn't have the same caliber of measurables as the rest of the top prospects do, even though I have him at #1 right now.

Yes, I haven't watched these guys enough, but when I read the write up them, I think on the Ringer, their flaws looked like they could be big concerns. Especially Ayton and I think his laziness or whatever they called it. It does seem like Doncic and Bagley are the most can't miss prospects, then maybe Porter next, but not sure. Of course if Ayton and Bamba's potential weaknesses are overcome they should be right there as well.

Of course I still really want a top 5 pick though. They seem super hyped right now, but I don't know if they are all as highly viewed by scouts than the top of this past draft which was proclaimed as one of the best of years, and at this time last year Smith, Jackson, Tatum, Ball and Fultz were looked like as can't miss as well. If Givony is saying Williams and Bridges are in the mix for #1, and those guys were fringe top 10 or slightly out of it this year, it's obvious they should move up a bit with another year, but it makes you wonder how the rankings would have played out if the top 5 of this coming year would have come out in this recent draft.

[darealjuice]

Yes, I haven't watched these guys enough, but when I read the write up them, I think on the Ringer, their flaws looked like they could be big concerns. Especially Ayton and I think his laziness or whatever they called it. It does seem like Doncic and Bagley are the most can't miss prospects, then maybe Porter next, but not sure. Of course if Ayton and Bamba's potential weaknesses are overcome they should be right there as well.

Of course I still really want a top 5 pick though.

I like them all and would be happy with any of them at this point, don't get me wrong, but the hype this season has been pretty nuts. I've seen multiple people online say all of the top 5 picks would have gone #1 in the 2017 draft, and that just feels like a lot to say before seeing 4/5 of them play in college yet.

[bwgood77]

Yes, I haven't watched these guys enough, but when I read the write up them, I think on the Ringer, their flaws looked like they could be big concerns. Especially Ayton and I think his laziness or whatever they called it. It does seem like Doncic and Bagley are the most can't miss prospects, then maybe Porter next, but not sure. Of course if Ayton and Bamba's potential weaknesses are overcome they should be right there as well.

Of course I still really want a top 5 pick though.

I like them all and would be happy with any of them at this point, don't get me wrong, but the hype this season has been pretty nuts. I've seen multiple people online say all of the top 5 picks would have gone #1 in the 2017 draft, and that just feels like a lot to say before seeing 4/5 of them play in college yet.

Yes, I was editing my post above while you had already quoted prior to edit to respond, and pondered the same thing.

[In2ition]

Yes, I haven't watched these guys enough, but when I read the write up them, I think on the Ringer, their flaws looked like they could be big concerns. Especially Ayton and I think his laziness or whatever they called it. It does seem like Doncic and Bagley are the most can't miss prospects, then maybe Porter next, but not sure. Of course if Ayton and Bamba's potential weaknesses are overcome they should be right there as well.

Of course I still really want a top 5 pick though.

I like them all and would be happy with any of them at this point, don't get me wrong, but the hype this season has been pretty nuts. I've seen multiple people online say all of the top 5 picks would have gone #1 in the 2017 draft, and that just feels like a lot to say before seeing 4/5 of them play in college yet.

Well, bigs are a premium and this draft has them in abundance at the top. I think Bagley would have at least been #1 with his size, athleticism, skill, motor, and character.

[bwgood77]

:evil:

Yes, I haven't watched these guys enough, but when I read the write up them, I think on the Ringer, their flaws looked like they could be big concerns. Especially Ayton and I think his laziness or whatever they called it. It does seem like Doncic and Bagley are the most can't miss prospects, then maybe Porter next, but not sure. Of course if Ayton and Bamba's potential weaknesses are overcome they should be right there as well.

Of course I still really want a top 5 pick though.

I like them all and would be happy with any of them at this point, don't get me wrong, but the hype this season has been pretty nuts. I've seen multiple people online say all of the top 5 picks would have gone #1 in the 2017 draft, and that just feels like a lot to say before seeing 4/5 of them play in college yet.

Well, bigs are a premium and this draft has them in abundance at the top. I think Bagley would have at least been #1 with his size, athleticism, skill, motor, and character.

Yeah, I think right now it probably would have been something like Bagley, Ball or Fultz (with Lakers at 2 probably Ball but who knows?), assuming Ball went second, Fultz 3rd (Philly wouldn't take a big or Doncic with Simmons and needing shooting), Jackson probably to us (but may have been tough to pass on the big...we might have been the wildcard)...then probably Doncic.

But who knows how the rankings would have played out. Probably a thread on the draft board...if not I'll start one.

[PackSuns]

Anybody drooling over Michael Porter like I am? Great stroke great footwork. Smart etc. I remember watching him square up against the nations best PG's a few years back and he more than held his own.

[bwgood77]

I don't see the Durant or Davis comps for Bagley. I honestly see him as a more perimeter skilled young Amare. Both Durant and Davis started at the perimeter, but Bagley has always been a big man. Just so athletic and worked hard on his perimeter skills.

Also, Ayton is nowhere near as athletic as Howard or Robinson. I see him as a center version of LMA.

Bagley is a more explosive Bosh. Both Durant and Davis could shoot well but Bagley hasn't developed that part of his game yet. Still one of the best HS prospects of the past 10 years.

The tank race this year will be one for the ages in the East.

I see Bosh, but Bagley wants to tear down the rim and serve a facial every time he can. Agreed about the East tank job. Hopefully it's only a couple teams and Brooklyn is much better.

I think Brooklyn could easily be better than people think. I think the Bulls and Hawks will definitely be worse. If Lin stays healthy, they have Lin, Russell, LeVert/Carroll, RHJ and then someone at C. Center is their biggest weakness.....they might be able to get one on the cheap. If they had a little more cap space they could have given Len an offer sheet.

But Lin, Russell, Levert and Carroll are all decent/capable 3 pt shooters, and the former 3 can move the ball well. Then they could play Trevor Booker could probably play small ball 5.

Best case scenario is that the top picks go to Chicago, Atlanta, us, Sac and the Knicks and maybe Dallas or another eastern team, and Brooklyn and LA get no better than the 6th pick...this pushes Boston out of the top 5 (and they only get Brooklyn pick) while Philly keeps the Laker pick.

[Bogyo]

I'd be OK with a top 7 pick to be honest. I'd like a top3 for sure, but that's highly unlikely. As it looks now with the terrible eastern teams and Sac (and LA) we'll be looking at a pick between 4-8 most likely (I'd say about 90%). The top 4-5 are extreemly high potential, but I also think that Robert Williams could be a nice consolation prize and Sexton is not worse project than DSJ for example (or even better b/c of no injuries). Plus there will be at least 1 guy who blows up next year to be considered top5-6, so again, I'd be OK with a top 7 pick as of now.

[ATTL]

Depending on when bledsoe goes down with his biennial knee injury I think we'll be anywhere from 3rd-6th worst. If we finally get luck then we may move up. If not maybe we can package the heat pick(s) to move and get someone we really want.

[AtheJ415]

Wow Duke's stacked this year. Good year for us to suck, I'd be glad to take any of Bagley, Porter, Doncic, Ayton, and Bamba.

It was interesting to read Givony say any of 7 guys could go #1, including Robert Williams and Miles Bridges along with the other five. It seems like most would guess neither of those guys even go top 5. But of course any of those college guys could look like Skal and drop from potentially #1 a long way.

I could see Bridges, but I can't see Williams. He didn't even start for A&M most of last year, and I have seen him a ton and don't see the offensive potential (he shot 59% from the FT line, and most has a high FG% due to getting put back shots and dunks). Rebounding and defense is valuable, but I don't see how somebody who can't potentially carry an NBA offense (which I think all but Bamba can of that group), or can't have a Gobert-like impact on defense (which Bamba can), could go #1. To me he's like a PF version of Tyson Chandler or Deandre and I don't see that being super valuable.

[lilfishi22]

How does JJ compare to next draft's talent?

[bwgood77]

How does JJ compare to next draft's talent?

Tough to know...here are some thoughts from some of the die hard prospect followers on the boards... viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1607063&p=58177580#p58181936

[No-Man]

Why not sir? Redundancy?

Doncic is legit though from what I've seen.

He does, my only worry is his athleticism. He's a 2 foot jumper and not overly quick. More crafty, but seems to have a tremendous feel for the game in all aspects. Can run a PnR pretty well, I wonder if he doesn't end up as a PG in the future?

He is a point-forward type, not a PG, think bigger Brandon Roy if he pans out

[No-Man]

Early Season Tank Rank:

1. Atlanta
2. Chicago
3. Sacramento
4. Brooklyn (conveys to Boston)
5. New York
6. Phoenix
7. Lakers (conveys to Philadelphia or Boston)
8. Orlando
9. Indiana

*Assumes Anthony is traded by NY / Wade is bought out by Chicago.

More like,

absolutely terrible;

Chicago
NY

close but not quite as bad;

Phoenix/Sacramento
Brooklyn/LA

flat out mediocre;

Indiana
Orlando
Atlanta

next team up is probably Dallas, the rest is a bit more nebulous.

[bwgood77]

Early Season Tank Rank:

1. Atlanta
2. Chicago
3. Sacramento
4. Brooklyn (conveys to Boston)
5. New York
6. Phoenix
7. Lakers (conveys to Philadelphia or Boston)
8. Orlando
9. Indiana

*Assumes Anthony is traded by NY / Wade is bought out by Chicago.

More like,

absolutely terrible;

Chicago
NY

close but not quite as bad;

Phoenix/Sacramento
Brooklyn/LA

flat out mediocre;

Indiana
Orlando
Atlanta

next team up is probably Dallas, the rest is a bit more nebulous.

Hawks fans are not going to be happy if they end up with like the 9th pick with that roster.

[No-Man]

If you compare the Hawks with the rest, they have solid PG play, the best spacing of those teams next to Brooklyn, the best head coach by a mile and a solid program of developing talent.

They are gonna be bad because they lack talent but I have a hard time seeing the Hawks been awful, I think their pick falls anyway from 7th to 9th pre-lotto.

Around 30-35W for them.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I'm excited for the top 5 but I wonder if that means teams will tank harder given the projected tier drop off.