bwgood77 wrote:NavLDO wrote:
That's also one of the things that concern me with Young. He came into this season as a relative unknown. He was likely still the best player on Oklahoma coming into the season, but obviously, he was not even close to being a 1st Rd pick consideration in October, let alone, Lottery or Top 5. Then he has a brilliant non-conference schedule, going 10-1, with gawdy stats, then reality strikes, and since, he's only been 6-9, with decreasing stats.
He hasn't fared wonderfully against some of the better PGs coming out, either, in Jevon Carter, Kerwin Roach, and Graham. Additionally, some of these guys that are also the only 'real' talents on their clubs are finding ways to be successful, even though they are the target of opposing double and triple teams, as well...Landry Shamet, Khyri Thomas, Jevon Carter, Shake Milton, and Colin Sexton, etc.
I'll be honest, Young is losing his luster, some. I think he'll be ok in the NBA, but I certainly do not want to waste a top 5 pick on him when there are other talents to be had early, and quite a few nice shooting PGs in the draft that can be taken later, as well.
Young was underrated then he probably got overrated a bit though most places still didn't put him into top 5, even though many here did (for me he hovered around in that top 5 but I think I voted Porter at 2 even when Young was peaking). And now he is struggling, though he is playing in one of the tougher conferences (probably the toughest top to bottom) with no other real high profile national recruits like Ayton and Bagley. So comparing him based on win/loss relative to those guys isn't fair. The team is largely the same as last year, and they were 11-20. It's not like Fultz going 2-14 in conference play or whatever it was, when he joined a team that had made the NIT the year before.
Young was the 20th ranked prospect coming in
NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR: TRAE YOUNG, OKLAHOMA
Young, the No. 20 prospect in the class of 2017 according to the Recruiting Services Consensus Index, reportedly drew scholarship offers from brand-name programs like Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and Arizona, but the Norman North (Okla.) product elected to stay home and play for the Sooners.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/23/big-12-preview-projections-rankings-standingsBut he wasn't in most first round mocks. I wasn't high on any of the PGs though prior to Young emerging though. I think most of them are career backups.
Some of the draft gurus on the NBA draft board (some of these guys are very good) were on high him...particularly Fischella, the guy you ranted on about his team's terrible trade for McDermott. viewtopic.php?f=38&t=1624106&start=20#p60369734
viewtopic.php?f=38&t=1624106#start_here
He even came around and told us in our draft thread very early how he liked him better than Sexton, and I asked him how come he is not in a mock..he mentioned he was in his and some people pointed out others, such a tankathons who had him in there in the mid teens.
No one expected Young to lead this team without top tier prospects to being ranked in the top 5, but now they are tumbling, as AZ did when they fell out of the polls losing 3 straight early in the year. The PAC 12 isn't nearly as tough as the BIG 12 either.
His non conference schedule wasn't that easy overall though, as they played two ranked teams, beating #3 Wichita St, and #25 USC and also beat Oregon. Then they played Arkansas. Then they also beat some ranked teams in conference...# 5 ranked Kansas, #10 TCU twice and #16 Texas Tech.
I have always been high on shooters and passers though, and of course the slump and the turnovers are concerning. I watched him live and really felt he is an elite passer. Very good at getting to the line.
As far as his shooting I'm still convinced he will be the best shooter out of the draft. It's been broken down with much more context than you have provided and that his high percentage of nba length 3 pointers combined with the high % of shots off the dribble, impact that %, because as a catch and shoot guy, he is a much better shooter, and he'd probably shoot much more of those in the NBA when the ball swings around more and he is open.
I think he would probably relieve Booker's job the most of the prospects (other than Doncic and maybe Porter, though he would draw some bigger guys), because other perimeter defenders would have to focus on Trae, leaving Booker more shots, and vice versa.
But I like him and Porter a lot because we desperately need shooting.
What concerns me on Bagley is mostly his defense and rim protection, and probably not playing C, and then his subpar 3 pt shooting in conf play on limited volume, but what many advanced experts consider the better translation of shooting is the ft% where he shoots 62%...we already have that problem with JJ.
I do like the thought of Bender pairing with Bagley in the front court since Bender can play D and probably rim protect better and Bagley is very aggressive and a good rebounder and scorer. So theoretically the pairing could work.
The thing is, to me, all the prospects have question marks and weaknesses, and shooting is the biggest premium skill needed in the NBA and we are one of the worst shooting teams.
But Ayton's lack of defense or great rim protection (though the latter isn't bad), possibly wanting to play PF, is not bad, but given his sheer dominance, he's hard to pass on in top 2 or 3, particularly at 2 if he is in the tier and equal with other guys given our needs.
But our other big weakness as a team is defense....and not having defense at the C spot is worse than not having it at the PG spot (though the Booker pairing could hurt).
Was was interesting to read today...is that even though we rank as the worst defense since 2008-9, we rank 10th in forcing the opposition to take difficult shots. That seems odd and I'm not sure what to make of that. I think Bender disrupts a lot of shots, and Jackson can be a hound, but that is just an odd stat. It leads me to believe, Triano is coaching them to force opponents to make tough shots, but our talent is lacking overall...perhaps that's not it given his history of being a bad defensive coach though.
Now about JJJ...he sounds so enticing because he can rim protect with that insane block % and he is an excellent defender, AND he is an elite 3 pt shooter. Those are all the perfect skills. He is also the youngest guy in the draft.
In theory, for today's nba, the top 3 based on the NBA today should be Doncic, Porter and JJJ...and possibly Young. But then you have the fact JJJ is a little more raw/young...so might take a little time, and Porter has the back injury.
I LOVE the idea of playing Porter at the 4 like Durant/George..IF healthy.
Then the bigs with defensive issues are the more dominant players/scorers but can we afford a bad defensive frontcourt for our future? Given our defensive problems in the back court?
But then again, what if Ayton is Towns and Bagley is a more aggressive Bosh?
Ultimately, after Doncic
Bamba is good defensively and he seems more boom/bust. Young could be too.
Ultimately I would really want Doncic at 1, and after that it's tough...based on the type of players in today's NBA JJJ and Porter are awfully tempting, but the dominance of Ayton/Bagley is tough to pass. Ultimately I will be fine with any of the top 6 in that second range....with Bamba just outside for now...and Bagley is just getting in there for me...and Young hovering around the bottom of that top tier.
The funny thing is, I was the one pointing out Trae's downfall and weaknesses and slump before you jumped on and argued with me about it (because people were talking taking him at 1) and I thought if we go PG you have to go Doncic over him. PG was hands down our biggest need a couple weeks ago so that needed to change with no options in FA...especially if that tier was too close to call.
I also really value thestepien's analysis and rankings as they seem to do a lot of in depth research....they still have Young in their top 2, but that last ranking was updated 1/30 so I'd be interested to see if they move him down. I would like to see more analysis on that.
Also, I thought Bagley was probably #1 before the season, but his weaknesses concerned me. He does seem like the type of guy what will work the hardest to improve though, and the Duke coach says he has that mindset of guys he coached on the olympics, so I think he could conceivably become a good 3 pt shooter while starting out like Bosh where he stretches the floor somewhat though not from 3 as much to being career...and could get better at defense and free throws.
You have potential work ethic issues with Ayton as well...but the dominance is hard to ignore.
Sorry for the long post...maybe some redundancies, but I'm sure you're quite used to long posts.
Edit: OKLA with a VERY slow start against KU, but of course KU is one of the top teams and most stacked teams in the country who has won 14 consecutive BIG 12 regular season conf championships, AND are at home, with Young being smothered, the usual as of late.
Ultimately though, I think an Ayton (or any big) and Shai-Gilgeous would be a great pairing or Doncic or possibly Young, and Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams or Daniel Gafford.