2018 Draft Pick Watch (MIA, MIL etc.)

[gaspar]

There's a lot of basketball left to be played this season and it may be a bit too early to watch the standings, but the Suns have sooo many picks this year that it would nice have a separate thread to discuss the draft order and keep the discussion about the prospects in the Draft thread.

The Suns picks this year:

1st round:
PHX
MIA (top-7 protected)
MIL (top-10 and 17-30 protected)

2nd round:
PHX (if it's 56-60 it goes to Memphis)
TOR unprotected
MIL protected for selections 31-47
2nd most favorable of MEM, CHA and MIA 2nd round picks

So obviously the teams we all should be rooting against are:
- Miami (if the pick doesn't convey this year it becomes unprotected in 2019 and we possibly have their 2nd this year too),
- Milwaukee (hopefully they miss the playoffs but don't suck too much),
- Charlotte,
- Memphis,
- Toronto.

If the season ended today the Suns would have picks:
#7 our own (tied with UTA)
#9 from MIA (tied with MEM, OKC and CHA)
#14 from MIL
#37-38 our own
#39-40 from MEM/CHA/MIA
#57 from TOR

http://www.tankathon.com/

[bwgood77]

I was thinking yesterday that best case scenario for the Milwaukee pick, and it might be realistic given the state of the conferences, is that there are a clear top 8 in the west, with a large gap between 8 and 9.

And then in the east, there is a clump of teams between like 5-10 where all there records or extremely close.

Say the last WC playoff team has 46 wins or something, but the 9th best team has like 39, and then seeds 5-10 in the west all have between like 40-45.

This would put the 11-16 picks all teams from the eastern conference. I think ultimately we want the Bucks to lose because there is a lot better chance they get high a high enough seed to have the 17th pick or lower.

The west clear 8, as it looks right now, and if Memphis, LAC and Utah remain with injury problems, is:

GS
HOU
SA
MINN
POR
DEN
NOP
OKC

I know OKC has struggled to win but they have the 4th best pt differential in the west and have lost a bunch of very close games, and I expect them to figure it out and turn it around. Westbrook had early big time FT struggles due to the new rule and he has since corrected it as well. I do think MEM is very tough when healthy though, and think UTAH and LAC can be good, but the Clips have been missing two important pieces and Utah their most important piece. The thing about the Clips and Grizz is those players always seem to get injured.

The east, though, seems to wide open for the last few playoff teams and I think realistically anyone but the Hawks, Bulls and Nets have a shot. Miami has struggled and I hope they don't struggle too much because there really just seems to be a clear bottom 5 or 6, and a number of teams could finish 7th worst.

I won't declare too much about my opinions on prospects, and if I do, it will be in the draft thread, but obviously I'd love to get #1 and #8 and take Doncic and Williams if they are there. Or if 2/3 get Ayton/Bamba and then a PG like Sexton or maybe Duval with Miami's. But need to see more of these guys against real competition. So far they are playing subpar college teams mostly.

[MathiasPW]

Miami started slow also last year, and it´s mainly because of Dragic. He always starts the season slow (tired from his endless Euro trips) and then picks up close to ASG.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01/splits/

[Villalobos]

Miami started slow also last year, and it´s mainly because of Dragic. He always starts the season slow (tired from his endless Euro trips) and then picks up close to ASG.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01/splits/

A lot of their other guys were in a contract year though, including Waiters. And it sounds like there's some drama brewing with Whiteside. I don't think they're gonna strike that fluky half-season magic again this season.

[Bogyo]

Easy.
We win the lottery, Miami finishes 8th and Milwauukee 11th.
Ayton, Sexton, Porter (with his injury).


(Someone pls post the adequate South Park picture to this scenario )

[NTB]

Easy.
We win the lottery, Miami finishes 8th and Milwauukee 11th.
Ayton, Sexton, Porter (with his injury).


(Someone pls post the adequate South Park picture to this scenario )

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Easy.
We win the lottery, Miami finishes 8th and Milwauukee 11th.
Ayton, Sexton, Porter (with his injury).


(Someone pls post the adequate South Park picture to this scenario )

It's just so weird to see people so excited about these prospects and then, year after year, be immediately disappointed by their play.

Not YOU, ntb, just, you know, fans generally.

[ATTL]

I'm cool with Milwaukee pick not conveying this year. Don't need suns, Miami, and bucks this season, spread it out plz

[cberry78]

....

http://www.tankathon.com/

F! that site. I hit the button ONCE and Milwaukee jumped up 14 spots to #1 and we got the 9th pick. F THIS!

[SarcasticSun]

Easy.
We win the lottery, Miami finishes 8th and Milwauukee 11th.
Ayton, Sexton, Porter (with his injury).


(Someone pls post the adequate South Park picture to this scenario )

It's just so weird to see people so excited about these prospects and then, year after year, be immediately disappointed by their play.

Not YOU, ntb, just, you know, fans generally.

Idk, last draft with this much hype about the top prospects was Wiggins/Jabari/Embiid draft but the hype for that one died down a lot after the college season was played.

Also, I wasn't too excited about this last draft outside of Fultz/DSJ.

But this draft? Man.... Ayton, Porter, Bagley, and Donicic would be #1 picks most years. This draft feels like an 03, where there is a going to be a chunk of 3-5 superstars at the very top of the draft and not much else after that. I know people say this every year but I think it's real this time.

[ATTL]

I had a dream the Lakers won the lottery and we got the 5th pick.

[bwgood77]

I had a dream the Lakers won the lottery and we got the 5th pick.

That would be great if we traded the #1 pick this year for Knight. But I guess that would be another #1 for Philly.

[carey]

But this draft? Man.... Ayton, Porter, Bagley, and Donicic would be #1 picks most years. This draft feels like an 03, where there is a going to be a chunk of 3-5 superstars at the very top of the draft and not much else after that. I know people say this every year but I think it's real this time.

They also say that every year.

[carey]

I'm cool with Milwaukee pick not conveying this year. Don't need suns, Miami, and bucks this season, spread it out plz

Don't have roster spots for 3 1sts let alone all the 2nds.

[RaisingArizona]

Watching how raw and inconsistent Chriss, Bender and Jackson are, I really hope we can draft some people who are a bit more polished.

[Damkac]

Watching how raw and inconsistent Chriss, Bender and Jackson are, I really hope we can draft some people who are a bit more polished.

Yeah, I was thinking the same today. 4 raw prospects to develop is a bit too much.

So... Doncic?

[WeekapaugGroove]

Watching how raw and inconsistent Chriss, Bender and Jackson are, I really hope we can draft some people who are a bit more polished.

I expected jackson to be far more ready to play in the NBA than hes been so far. And at some point all three guys have to transform from raw to contributor.

Frankly its hard to predict who's more polished coming in. Was jaylen brown viewed as more ready than a guy like chriss. Tatum is a full year younger than jackson and he looks better from day one even though most would have predicted a longer learning curve for him. Hell the most ready guy the suns have drafted in the past 5 years was an 18 year old who most thought was a long ways off from even sniffing the court.

Now some dudes like bender are simply not physically ready when they are drafted and I do give them more of a pass and longer developmental timeline.


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[Kerrsed]

First try!

[bwgood77]

First try!

That would be nice. My first gut would be to take Doncic and hope one of the top 5 centers fell to 12. We could go Ayton and hope a PG fell. Hopefully there are some PGs or Cs are there if the Heat and Bucks picks convey, because right now the top 11 are:


Player Pos Team Age Height Wingspan
1. Luka Doncic SG Real Madrid 18.6 6-8 N/A
2. Michael Porter Jr. SF/PF Missouri 19.3 6-10 7-0
3. Marvin Bagley III PF Duke 18.6 6-11 7-0½
4. Deandre Ayton C Arizona 19.2 7-0 7-5
5. Mohamed Bamba C Texas 19.4 7-0 7-9
6. Miles Bridges SF/PF Michigan St 19.6 6-6 6-9
7. Robert Williams C Texas A&M 20.0 6-9 7-5½
8. Collin Sexton PG Alabama 18.8 6-2 6-7
9. Jaren Jackson Jr. C Michigan St 18.1 6-10 7-4
10. Wendell Carter Jr. C Duke 18.5 6-10 7-3
11. Trevon Duval PG Duke 19.2 6-3 6-3½

and then the next group is wings

12. Bruce Brown SG Miami FL 21.2 6-3 6-8½
13. Lonnie Walker SG Miami FL 18.8 6-4 6-10½
14. Kevin Knox SF/PF Kentucky 18.2 6-9 7-0
15. Justin Jackson SF/PF Maryland 20.7 6-7 7-3
16. Dzanan Musa SF Cedevita 18.4 6-9 6-8½
17. Troy Brown SG Oregon 18.2 6-7 6-8
18. Hamidou Diallo SG Kentucky 19.2 6-5 7-0
19. Mikal Bridges SF Villanova 21.1 6-7 7-1½

so if the picks went like that, the 12th and 14th picks wouldn't be ideal if these rankings are anywhere near accurate. Of coure it's early though.

[Kerrsed]

I'd still take Ayton #1 over Doncic.

Sorry, it might sound bad, but im really really leery of "Superstar Potential" Euros. Seems like to me the best ones (That actually make a difference in the league) fly a bit under the radar, while the ones that are highly touted just dont work out as well. I trust scouts being able to watch players in the NCAA night in and night out, going against other NBA prospects for 35-30 minutes a game, over a a few handfuls of games against lessor quality teams/players while that Euro prospect only gets 5-10 minutes a game. Yes i understand that in the Euro leagues the older more senior players get more minutes and most of the burn, but i feel like thats why a lot of highly touted Euros tend to fail in the NBA is because we (Scouts) only get to see them going playing in a competitive setting for very short periods of time, and its usually against players that are far weaker in skill than anything they would see in the NBA.

Sure, these guys could have potential, and could have the skills, but can they put it all together in an actual game when it really matters? Thats what makes Porzingis such a unicorn.

Sure Bender still needs time to develop, but i fear he might be only half as good as he was "Projected" to be. Just like the majority of Non-College basketball playing Euro's that were projected as a top 10 lotto pick (Hezonja/Mudiay/Exum/Sarić/Fournier/Valančiūnas/Veselý/Biyombo).

And maybe "Euro" is the wrong word to use, more like Foreign. They are usually touted as being young and bursting with potential, yet having great experience playing in the Foreign pro leagues since they were like 14.

So yeah, Give me Ayton over Doncic all day every day and twice on Sunday.