2018 Draft Pick Watch (MIA, MIL etc.)

[WeekapaugGroove]

Question for those who like the lotto playoff idea. What incentive would a pending free agent or say a guy who could get his job stolen by a top pick have to play hard in such a tourney? Players in general aren't going to be too stoked to have to play some extra games just to try to get their team a better pick.

[bwgood77]

I'm not in favor of trying to out-tank the other teams as a general strategy. I understand how big the difference is between the #1 and the #4 pick, but I don't have much faith in our lottery luck in almost any case. And if Mo Bamba is the worst-case scenario, well, that's not bad.

We have a lot more talent, but a much harder schedule, than the other teams in the tank. We should allow these kids to excel if they can, and we should hope they do.

With all that "additional talent" we have, it's crazy we have the worst record when having played an easier schedule than most, if not all those teams.

Hmm. Lets see. Youngest team in the league. No point guard. Not just bad pg play. Injuries--4 major ones to Knight, Sauce, Canaan, and Reed plus significant time lost from our two top scorers in Warren and Bender. Brand new coach early on that had no training camp. Oh, and a commitment to play the younger players.

Its not that crazy.

I didn't think he meant Knight, Sauce, Canaan and Reed as our great talent. Our injuries haven't been as bad as some of the other teams that miss more major pieces for long periods (Orlando missing Vucevic and Isaac for a long time, Conley out most all season for Memphis, LaVine out for most of the Bulls season, etc).

We simply don't have a lot of realized talent yet. We have a number of players that have a lot of potential though. Hopefully they get there.

[jcsunsfan]

With all that "additional talent" we have, it's crazy we have the worst record when having played an easier schedule than most, if not all those teams.

Hmm. Lets see. Youngest team in the league. No point guard. Not just bad pg play. Injuries--4 major ones to Knight, Sauce, Canaan, and Reed plus significant time lost from our two top scorers in Warren and Bender. Brand new coach early on that had no training camp. Oh, and a commitment to play the younger players.

Its not that crazy.

I didn't think he meant Knight, Sauce, Canaan and Reed as our great talent. Our injuries haven't been as bad as some of the other teams that miss more major pieces for long periods (Orlando missing Vucevic and Isaac for a long time, Conley out most all season for Memphis, LaVine out for most of the Bulls season, etc).

We simply don't have a lot of realized talent yet. We have a number of players that have a lot of potential though. Hopefully they get there.

Mike James was our starter at pg for much of the first half of the season. All of our starting pg's except Bookers short run came right out of the g-league. Combine that with young but promiising player and this is what you get.

[gaspar]

The NBA should take away Mavs 1st round pick this year as a punishment for the sexual harassment and admitting to tanking.

[bwgood77]

Hmm. Lets see. Youngest team in the league. No point guard. Not just bad pg play. Injuries--4 major ones to Knight, Sauce, Canaan, and Reed plus significant time lost from our two top scorers in Warren and Bender. Brand new coach early on that had no training camp. Oh, and a commitment to play the younger players.

Its not that crazy.

I didn't think he meant Knight, Sauce, Canaan and Reed as our great talent. Our injuries haven't been as bad as some of the other teams that miss more major pieces for long periods (Orlando missing Vucevic and Isaac for a long time, Conley out most all season for Memphis, LaVine out for most of the Bulls season, etc).

We simply don't have a lot of realized talent yet. We have a number of players that have a lot of potential though. Hopefully they get there.

Mike James was our starter at pg for much of the first half of the season. All of our starting pg's except Bookers short run came right out of the g-league. Combine that with young but promiising player and this is what you get.

The PG level did hurt immensely, though we didn't play any better with Bledsoe at the beginning of the season.

Memphis started off the season strong with Conley, as did Orlando with Vucevic (and mostly without Payton actually) so those guys matter too.

My point was that we haven't proven by any stretch that we have significantly more talent than the rest of the tanking teams.

Not having a PG hurts, but it isn't the sole cause of having the worst defense in the NBA since 2009 or having the worst 3 pt shooting in the league. A PG helps people get more open looks but we just don't have more then about 3 or perhaps 4 decent to good 3 pt shooters.

[bwgood77]

The NBA should take away Mavs 1st round pick this year as a punishment for the sexual harassment and admitting to tanking.

Read on Twitter

[kennydorglas]

The NBA should take away Mavs 1st round pick this year as a punishment for the sexual harassment and admitting to tanking.

Read on Twitter

Wild that Magic got fined for 50k for blatant tampering and Cuban got a 600k for admitting to tank.
What a great time to be alive.

[thamadkant]

Cuban did more damage to players moral by admitting they plan on losing more games...

Players hate losing... They get it... But they hate losing. Don't think it was a good tactic.


Magic should be fined more than 50K though

[bwgood77]

Cuban did more damage to players moral by admitting they plan on losing more games...

Players hate losing... They get it... But they hate losing. Don't think it was a good tactic.


Magic should be fined more than 50K though

Players throwing games could be considered point shaving and illegal too. I mean it doesn't sound like Cuban has had his head on straight for quite some time.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Cuban did more damage to players moral by admitting they plan on losing more games...

Players hate losing... They get it... But they hate losing. Don't think it was a good tactic.


Magic should be fined more than 50K though

Players throwing games could be considered point shaving and illegal too. I mean it doesn't sound like Cuban has had his head on straight for quite some time.

Gotta up his crazy game if he's gonna run for Prez.

[darealjuice]

Read on Twitter

Shouldn't surprise anyone after we went and picked up Elf at the deadline, but "strategic resting" isn't gonna happen this season (outside of Chandler's usual schedule, I assume). 17/23 of our remaining games are against teams over .500, so it may not make a big difference for our draft position, but it definitely could considering the bottom 6 teams all have 18 wins.

Not sure how to feel about it. I'm pretty content anyone in the top 7, but it could be a big mistake to miss out on a potential generational prospect because we wanted Elfrid Payton, especially when he was likely on his way out of Orlando anyways and could easily just be a short-term stop gap that doesn't take us over the top like he was there.

[bwgood77]

Read on Twitter

Shouldn't surprise anyone after we went and picked up Elf at the deadline, but strategic resting isn't gonna happen this season (outside of Chandler's usual schedule, I assume). 17/23 of our remaining games are against teams over .500, so it may not make a big difference for our draft position, but it definitely could considering the bottom 6 teams all have 18 wins.

Not sure how to feel about it. I'm pretty content with the top 7, but it could be a big mistake to miss out on a potential generational prospect because we wanted Elfrid Payton, who was apparently on his way out of Orlando anyways and could easily just be a short-term stop gap that doesn't take us over the top like he was there.

Yeah, well, hopefully we are more competitive, players continue to develop and get more open looks and confidence playing with a pass first guy, but that with the other teams playing one another more that they beat each other up enough to do it. In the end, it still comes down to the lottery though, and the Kings jumped from 6 to 3 last year (though Philly had the right to swap picks and did).

Overall we've got to be pretty happy if we get anyone in the top 7. I would say top 5...but any of our top 5s might be different than McD's so he may take a guy any of us have at 7 at 5 anyway.

[darealjuice]

Yeah, well, hopefully we are more competitive, players continue to develop and get more open looks and confidence playing with a pass first guy, but that with the other teams playing one another more that they beat each other up enough to do it. In the end, it still comes down to the lottery though, and the Kings jumped from 6 to 3 last year (though Philly had the right to swap picks and did).

Overall we've got to be pretty happy if we get anyone in the top 7. I would say top 5...but any of our top 5s might be different than McD's so he may take a guy any of us have at 7 at 5 anyway.

I think we'll come out of it fine. Chicago has the 5th easiest schedule remaining and is starting to get healthy again, so they'll probably end up toward the middle of the lottery. Orlando has the 11th easiest schedule and is getting Vucevic, Gordon, Ross, and Isaac back in the coming weeks, so there's a good chance they end up toward the middle of the lottery too. Memphis has the 10th easiest schedule and decided to hold onto Tyreke's expiring contract, so they could definitely sneak out a few wins. Dallas has the 7th easiest schedule and might start playing Nerlens Noel, so maybe they sneak out a couple wins to close out the year.

I'd say my guess for the top 10 come lottery day is:

1. Atlanta
2. Sacramento
3. Dallas
4. Phoenix
5. Orlando
6. Memphis
7. New York
8. Brooklyn
9. Chicago
10. Lakers

[bwgood77]

Yeah, well, hopefully we are more competitive, players continue to develop and get more open looks and confidence playing with a pass first guy, but that with the other teams playing one another more that they beat each other up enough to do it. In the end, it still comes down to the lottery though, and the Kings jumped from 6 to 3 last year (though Philly had the right to swap picks and did).

Overall we've got to be pretty happy if we get anyone in the top 7. I would say top 5...but any of our top 5s might be different than McD's so he may take a guy any of us have at 7 at 5 anyway.

I think we'll come out of it fine. Chicago has the 5th easiest schedule remaining and is starting to get healthy again, so they'll probably end up toward the middle of the lottery. Orlando has the 11th easiest schedule and is getting Vucevic, Gordon, Ross, and Isaac back in the coming weeks, so there's a good chance they end up toward the middle of the lottery too. Memphis has the 10th easiest schedule and decided to hold onto Tyreke's expiring contract, so they could definitely sneak out a few wins. Dallas has the 7th easiest schedule and might start playing Nerlens Noel, so maybe they sneak out a couple wins to close out the year.

I'd say my guess for the top 10 come lottery day is:

1. Atlanta
2. Sacramento
3. Dallas
4. Phoenix
5. Orlando
6. Memphis
7. New York
8. Brooklyn
9. Chicago
10. Lakers

That looks about right, though I think it is a pretty big stretch for NY to catch Brooklyn...4 games back with like 23 left. That's a lot of ground to make up.

The expected remaining record of the bottom 7 or so teams is probably an average of about 7-16. Of course without KP, they could go 4-19 or something and Brooklyn could go 9-14 and pass them up but that's gaining a lot of ground.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I'd be fine picking at 6-7 (depending if Porter is healthy).

[darealjuice]

That looks about right, though I think it is a pretty big stretch for NY to catch Brooklyn...4 games back with like 23 left. That's a lot of ground to make up.

The expected remaining record of the bottom 7 or so teams is probably an average of about 7-16. Of course without KP, they could go 4-19 or something and Brooklyn could go 9-14 and pass them up but that's gaining a lot of ground.

For what it's worth I was debating switching them too. I just think the Knicks are going to be awful man, they're on an 8 game losing streak and plan to play young players more after the break. They're going to be starting Jarret Jack/Courtney Lee/Tim Hardaway Jr/Michael Beasley/Enes Kanter the rest of the season lol, and their back-up back court of Mudiay and Ntilikina isn't going to win them too many games right now either. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they finished at/under 25 wins lol.

I'm not sure where to put our record yet though. 5 of the 6 remaining games we have against non-playoff contending teams are away games for us, so if we went 3-3 (which we'd be unlucky to do with 5 being away games) on those and 5-12 (our current average of .300, unlikely considering the competition) in the remaining games against playoff teams it's still only 26 wins, which was good for the 3rd best odds last year...

[Mulhollanddrive]

I'm hoping Brooklyn (+1 win / no tank), Chicago (+2 wins) and NY (+5 wins) stay out of the way leaving us in the top 6 then anything from there is bonus.

[ATTL]

Read on Twitter

Shouldn't surprise anyone after we went and picked up Elf at the deadline, but "strategic resting" isn't gonna happen this season (outside of Chandler's usual schedule, I assume). 17/23 of our remaining games are against teams over .500, so it may not make a big difference for our draft position, but it definitely could considering the bottom 6 teams all have 18 wins.

Not sure how to feel about it. I'm pretty content anyone in the top 7, but it could be a big mistake to miss out on a potential generational prospect because we wanted Elfrid Payton, especially when he was likely on his way out of Orlando anyways and could easily just be a short-term stop gap that doesn't take us over the top like he was there.

Agreed. I like the top 7 but there are some I like much more.
Would fans rather have Karl Anthony Towns or Emanuel Mudiay? 1 vs. 7.

[bwgood77]

That looks about right, though I think it is a pretty big stretch for NY to catch Brooklyn...4 games back with like 23 left. That's a lot of ground to make up.

The expected remaining record of the bottom 7 or so teams is probably an average of about 7-16. Of course without KP, they could go 4-19 or something and Brooklyn could go 9-14 and pass them up but that's gaining a lot of ground.

For what it's worth I was debating switching them too. I just think the Knicks are going to be awful man, they're on an 8 game losing streak and plan to play young players more after the break. They're going to be starting Jarret Jack/Courtney Lee/Tim Hardaway Jr/Michael Beasley/Enes Kanter the rest of the season lol, and their back-up back court of Mudiay and Ntilikina isn't going to win them too many games right now either. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they finished at/under 25 wins lol.

I'm not sure where to put our record yet though. 5 of the 6 remaining games we have against non-playoff contending teams are away games for us, so if we went 3-3 (which we'd be unlucky to do with 5 being away games) on those and 5-12 (our current average of .300, unlikely considering the competition) in the remaining games against playoff teams it's still only 26 wins, which was good for the 3rd best odds last year...

I know it sounds awful but TH Jr has had some really great games this year, as has Beasley. Kanter has played well also and Lee has been solid too. It's not great, but they can play well.

FWIW, on that 8 game losing streak they lost @Boston, @Milwaukee, @Indiana, @Philly, @Toronto, and then at home vs Milwaukee and Washington. Their only easy game they lost was a home game vs Atlanta they lost by 3.

They do have a tough schedule much of the rest of the way though. http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/ny/new-york-knicks

The only easier ones are two against Orlando, one against Chicago, Dallas and Sacramento.

[kennydorglas]

Knowing our luck, we'll probably finish #6 and drop to #8... like the Cardinals did in every tank year.