lilfishi22 wrote:1. Ayton - I went with Ayton because imo, that top 3 spot is so close it doesn't really matter who you take. So if the talent/potential difference is negligible, then you should go with need and I think both Porter and Ayton fits well on this team from a need, talent and future fit stand point. Easiest sell for McD
1. Ayton. Agreed. Highest upside; safest pick from the GM's perspective; least likely to threaten the PT of other players on the roster.
lilfishi22 wrote:2. Porter - Went with Porter here because as mentioned, I think if the talent is almost equal then Porter is a better fit from a need (shooting, size), talent and future fit perspective. He has the NBA athleticism, NBA size and NBA shooting abilities to be able to play right away and I think he's the type of player that will dominate the NBA of tomorrow.
2. Bagley. I think Porter's actually a fairly risky selection, and not merely because of his injury. A lot of the upside with Porter seems to be linked to his physical profile and mature skill set. But I don't think he's exhibit the tremendous athleticism or freakish physical attributes that we've come to associate with #1 picks (and in this draft, if you wouldn't be a #1 pick most years, you probably won't be in the top 3). Bagley has a big question mark to his game - interior defense. But the focus on that question mark obscures the rarity of his particular gift in a big man, which is his high motor.
If you consider that Bagley will inevitably bulk up, and that he will very likely acquire a decent jump shot, it's hard not to see him as a guy who averages 20 and 10 for 10 straight years. That'll be hard for McD to pass on.
lilfishi22 wrote:3. Doncic - I don't think Doncic is McD's top choice not because he isn't ridiculously talented and likely the greatest international prospect to come into the NBA draft but because he doesn't really fill any need that we're in desperate need for and that makes the pick hard to sell. With the giant holes still at the 4/5, I think McD will have a hard time selling this pick to the fans when he doesn't really address a need while guys like Ayton, Bagley and to a lesser extent, JJJr/Bamba still on the board. I actually think the only reason McD would take Doncic before a big is because he's super high on Doncic. Passing on talented bigs when we have a desperate need for a big man can only mean he's super high on Doncic and I don't really get the sense he is higher on him than other players in the top 3.
3. Young. I think there's a reason McD was quick to note that the Suns still consider themselves as having a need at the 1 in his most recent interview on azsports. I think McD knows the value of shooting in the modern NBA and would love to be able to roll with a Payton/Booker/Young back court. I think he's as high on Young as anyone and wouldn't consider Payton's strong play as a reason not to draft Trae.
lilfishi22 wrote:4. Bagley - He's an ultra-high potential prospect who would really help with our need for scoring, defense and rebounding down low. Even though they play a very different game and imo a different position, I think this pick would make Chriss redundant as the ultra-athletic big with developing skills and this could be a reason why Bagley may be lower on McD's big board
4. Doncic. Close call with Doncic and Young. I do think there's a big fit problem with this selection, as many others have noted. I still think McD would be ecstatic to be able to take him. If we made this selection, whether or not we kept him, we would be making some moves. I see the possibility for a lot of trade action on draft day.
lilfishi22 wrote:5. Young - This guy is going to be an incredible upgrade at the PG position. I think he's going to have a solid career mainly because he has the skill and mindset to dominate in today's NBA. There's question marks around his physicality from a defensive standpoint and also whether he can find good shots in the NBA being a small guy and against NBA defense. But he's a worthy pick at #5 from a pure talent perspective. I think he'll be hard to pass up at #5 but like Doncic, he doesn't fill a need that we're desperate for.
5. JJJr The Serge Ibaka comparisons are pretty darn good. I do think we would have to move Chriss if we were to take him, though. His ceiling is certainly higher than Bamba's, and it may be higher than Porter's as well. But have no doubt: this kid is a project. He will have trouble staying on the floor, and he will be inconsistent for the first couple years. I think he'll figure it out, but he's not the sure thing the players ahead of him are.
lilfishi22 wrote:6. JJJr - The guy is raw but fills a huge need in size, defense and shooting. He's the youngest guy in the top 7 (I believe) and that's really why I think he's lower on McD's board. I think McD is looking for someone who can play right away and potentially dominate (for a rook) right away and I'm not sure JJJr can do that right away aside from his defense.
6. Bamba. To justify taking Mo t, you have to assume he demonstrates throughout the draft process that he will commit to working on his body and his game. I think he plays with an underrated degree of intensity, and that with more spacing, he could show off more of his game on offense. But he's a great fit with this team. Not nearly as concerned with spacing as others seem to be.
This would be a questionable pick, though, with Porter still on the board.
lilfishi22 wrote:7. Bamba - Unlike most of you, I don't actually think Bamba is particularly high on McD's big board. I'm sure my personal bias is part of this reasoning but while Bamba does fill a need from a defense, size and rebounding perspective, I think not having a 3PT shot and very very basic interior offense will hurt his ability to stay on the floor.
7. Porter. If you take Mo higher than Porter, you're not betting on Bamba surpassing expectations as much as you're betting on Porter failing to meet them, which is why I think it will be very hard to take Bamba over Porter. Unless, of course, that back looks like it will be a long-term issue. I'd rather have Clint Capela than Jabari Parker, after all.
If we think Porter will be able to play the 4, and he's healthy, we may take him as high as #2, as you indicate. I just have a hard time slotting him higher without having seen much of him.