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1UPZ wrote:dont think Ayton is a rich man's Kanter... Kanter is slow but skilled... he's a Scola clone.

Ayton is explosive and athletic...


man, mentioning Scola reminds me of the 2012-2013 Suns... truly the darkest times, no stars in sight, until the next year when Dragic decided to blow up.

bwgood77 wrote:

1UPZ wrote:dont think Ayton is a rich man's Kanter... Kanter is slow but skilled... he's a Scola clone.

Ayton is explosive and athletic...


man, mentioning Scola reminds me of the 2012-2013 Suns... truly the darkest times, no stars in sight, until the next year when Dragic decided to blow up.

Yeah, athletically and his explosiveness are on a different level. I guess more in what he provides. Vucevic probably a better comp than Kanter...but Kanter being a great rebounder and good on the offensive side made me think of him. Though Ayton is more explosive and athletic than Vucevic as well, even though he can be soft and avoid contact.

Ayton could put up points and gobble up rebounds for us for sure, and be a great finisher which would be nice to have at the C position. His steal and block rate at the college level compared to successful bigs in the league is pretty worrisome though, as those are usually good indicators of success in the nba.

Will be fun to watch him in the PAC12 tourney and hopefully deep into the NCAA tourney, but I suspect how deep AZ goes might have something to do with his defensive impact in the middle.

Kerrsed wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

1UPZ wrote:dont think Ayton is a rich man's Kanter... Kanter is slow but skilled... he's a Scola clone.

Ayton is explosive and athletic...


man, mentioning Scola reminds me of the 2012-2013 Suns... truly the darkest times, no stars in sight, until the next year when Dragic decided to blow up.

Yeah, athletically and his explosiveness are on a different level. I guess more in what he provides. Vucevic probably a better comp than Kanter...but Kanter being a great rebounder and good on the offensive side made me think of him. Though Ayton is more explosive and athletic than Vucevic as well, even though he can be soft and avoid contact.

Ayton could put up points and gobble up rebounds for us for sure, and be a great finisher which would be nice to have at the C position. His steal and block rate at the college level compared to successful bigs in the league is pretty worrisome though, as those are usually good indicators of success in the nba.

Will be fun to watch him in the PAC12 tourney and hopefully deep into the NCAA tourney, but I suspect how deep AZ goes might have something to do with his defensive impact in the middle.

From watching about 5 games, he really reminds me of a better rebounding Amare. Same strengths (Athleticism/explosiveness/mid-range jumper).

ATTL wrote:

Watch on YouTube

JMac1 wrote:

ATTL wrote:

Watch on YouTube

1UPZ wrote:Absolutely enjoy watching Bagley play with passion.... Then you look at his blocks per game and it's so low lol. He's like Randle in terms of production what he provides... Energy, good scoring and rebounding... But not much rim protection. I mean I wish he was at least a 2.5bpg college player so he can be a 1.5bpg NBA player...but 1bpg would probably mean 0.5bpg in the league.

Freshman Block Rates From Big Men Drafted in the Top 10, Since 2010
Player Year Drafted Freshman Year Block Rate
Anthony Davis 2012 13.7
Nerlens Noel 2013 13.2
Joel Embiid 2014 11.7
Karl-Anthony Towns 2015 11.5
Andre Drummond 2012 9.9
Zach Collins 2017 9.8
Jakob Poeltl 2016 8.6
Willie Cauley-Stein 2015 8.4
Alex Len 2013 8
Derrick Favors 2010 7.9
DeMarcus Cousins 2010 7.5
Ekpe Udoh 2010 7.2
Tristan Thompson 2011 7.2
Frank Kaminsky 2015 5
Jahlil Okafor 2015 4.5
Cody Zeller 2013 4.3
DeAndre Ayton 2017 4.3
Greg Monroe 2010 3.8

Shot-blocking is one of the most consistent statistics from college to the NBA. There aren’t many guys who discover the ability to do it at the next level. The NBA career block rates of his historical peer group dropped an average of 57 percent from their freshman seasons of college. Ayton would have a block rate of 1.9 percent in the NBA if his numbers had a similar decline, which would put him in the bottom 15 percent of frontcourt players in the league.

Of course, there’s only so much that shot-blocking numbers can tell us. The more important job for a center is having a defensive presence in the lane, and block rates are an imperfect way to capture that information. A player who chases blocks at the expense of properly positioning themselves and staying within the overall defensive system can end up hurting their team. No one will be accusing Ayton of that. He’s not even trying to block shots most of the time. There have been too many instances this season where he simply watches the ball go past him without even attempting to rotate over or even challenge the shot.

Ayton doesn’t play with much energy on defense. He rarely makes two efforts at contesting a shot, and he’s not particularly diligent about getting himself involved in a play when it doesn’t involve his man. I talked to one NBA scout who thinks the problem is that Ayton has a high school mentality when it comes to defense, and that he is more concerned with winning his individual matchup statistically than filling his role in the Arizona system. You can draw a direct line from Ayton’s lack of effort to the Wildcats’ defensive struggles this season. They have the no. 213-rated defense in the country, a shockingly low number for a team coached by a defensive-minded coach like Sean Miller.

Take a look at the career paths of some of the centers drafted in the top 10 in recent years. Karl-Anthony Towns was a dominant defensive presence in college, and he’s still learning the nuances of protecting the rim in his third season in the NBA. Nerlens Noel is in his fifth season, and he can’t even get minutes on one of the worst teams in the NBA because he doesn’t understand what he’s supposed to be doing in its defensive system. Andre Drummond is just starting to figure it out, and he’s in his sixth. All these guys were ahead of where Ayton is defensively at the same age. When you draft a teenage big man in the lottery, you are signing up for a long and difficult maturation process even in the best of circumstances. If he’s either unable or unwilling to put in the effort on both ends of the floor, that process could stretch on indefinitely.

WeekapaugGroove wrote:Listening to some draft pods and they mention sexton as a guy who could fall. He'd be a nice high upside swing with the heat pick. He has flaws and is going to take time but there's a lot to work with in athletic ability. He could be really good in the pick and roll and its a pick and roll league. Keep payton around for a couple yrs and develop sexton slowly in hopes he takes over in a couple years.

bwgood77 wrote:

WeekapaugGroove wrote:Listening to some draft pods and they mention sexton as a guy who could fall. He'd be a nice high upside swing with the heat pick. He has flaws and is going to take time but there's a lot to work with in athletic ability. He could be really good in the pick and roll and its a pick and roll league. Keep payton around for a couple yrs and develop sexton slowly in hopes he takes over in a couple years.

Being a scoring/shooting PG doesn't the 3pt fg% worry you? He's at 30.6% from there this season now. I mean as bad as Young has been shooting from deep lately, at least he is still over 36% for the season. Sexton has dropped lower for me than anyone.

WeekapaugGroove wrote:I get all the concerns with bagley and he's around 6 on my board but theres a part of me that wonders if I'm over thinking him and focused too much on what he doesn't do vs what he can do. That dude can flat out score in the post and rebound then when you factor in he's young for his class and plays hard theres a chance hes just good.

Not that this should matter in the suns selecting him but it would be cool if he blew up and was a local star.

bwgood77 wrote:

WeekapaugGroove wrote:I get all the concerns with bagley and he's around 6 on my board but theres a part of me that wonders if I'm over thinking him and focused too much on what he doesn't do vs what he can do. That dude can flat out score in the post and rebound then when you factor in he's young for his class and plays hard theres a chance hes just good.

Not that this should matter in the suns selecting him but it would be cool if he blew up and was a local star.

Bagley's a monster and force offensively and rebounding so he will be tough to stop offensively. Maybe even moreso than Ayton just because he seems more fearless. You can make a case for them being the top two in the draft, particularly if you are a good to great 3 pt shooting team and especially if you are a great defensive team, but need that interior force.

Now we do need an interior force, but it's just the lack of defense that is the only real concern with those guys. There is a pretty good chance both will become pretty good stretch guys, so if Bender ever fills out and could be a defensive force in the middle then he could be a good pairing with either, particularly since he can stretch on the offensive side and offensively, they work on the inside.

Both of Ayton and Bagley will probably be a blast to watch, and probably the most fun of the bigs to watch.

WeekapaugGroove wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

WeekapaugGroove wrote:I get all the concerns with bagley and he's around 6 on my board but theres a part of me that wonders if I'm over thinking him and focused too much on what he doesn't do vs what he can do. That dude can flat out score in the post and rebound then when you factor in he's young for his class and plays hard theres a chance hes just good.

Not that this should matter in the suns selecting him but it would be cool if he blew up and was a local star.

Bagley's a monster and force offensively and rebounding so he will be tough to stop offensively. Maybe even moreso than Ayton just because he seems more fearless. You can make a case for them being the top two in the draft, particularly if you are a good to great 3 pt shooting team and especially if you are a great defensive team, but need that interior force.

Now we do need an interior force, but it's just the lack of defense that is the only real concern with those guys. There is a pretty good chance both will become pretty good stretch guys, so if Bender ever fills out and could be a defensive force in the middle then he could be a good pairing with either, particularly since he can stretch on the offensive side and offensively, they work on the inside.

Both of Ayton and Bagley will probably be a blast to watch, and probably the most fun of the bigs to watch.

I agree on the need to have the right kind of team around them and its questionable if the suns currently do. Heck just drafting on fit both bamba and jjj might be better because those two will absolutely be rim protectors at the next level. But I kind of think fit should be thrown out the window with the suns. Booker is the only guy that they for sure need to plan around and he can hit the longball. Jackson is the next best shot at being a top 3 guy on a contender and if he's going to reach that level he'll have to at least be a decent shooter. No one else should matter if you believe bagley or aton can be a top 3 star type because they will be the role players who will need to adjust to the bigs or get moved for guys who can.

With all that said young is the guy of the top 7 I worry about fit the most with booker. I'm just not sure you can be a true contender with those two playing d at the guard position.

bwgood77 wrote:

WeekapaugGroove wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:
Bagley's a monster and force offensively and rebounding so he will be tough to stop offensively. Maybe even moreso than Ayton just because he seems more fearless. You can make a case for them being the top two in the draft, particularly if you are a good to great 3 pt shooting team and especially if you are a great defensive team, but need that interior force.

Now we do need an interior force, but it's just the lack of defense that is the only real concern with those guys. There is a pretty good chance both will become pretty good stretch guys, so if Bender ever fills out and could be a defensive force in the middle then he could be a good pairing with either, particularly since he can stretch on the offensive side and offensively, they work on the inside.

Both of Ayton and Bagley will probably be a blast to watch, and probably the most fun of the bigs to watch.

I agree on the need to have the right kind of team around them and its questionable if the suns currently do. Heck just drafting on fit both bamba and jjj might be better because those two will absolutely be rim protectors at the next level. But I kind of think fit should be thrown out the window with the suns. Booker is the only guy that they for sure need to plan around and he can hit the longball. Jackson is the next best shot at being a top 3 guy on a contender and if he's going to reach that level he'll have to at least be a decent shooter. No one else should matter if you believe bagley or aton can be a top 3 star type because they will be the role players who will need to adjust to the bigs or get moved for guys who can.

With all that said young is the guy of the top 7 I worry about fit the most with booker. I'm just not sure you can be a true contender with those two playing d at the guard position.

I agree that with our team nothing should matter other than you think would have the most chance of being a star quality player. That's why I would go Doncic. I worry more about Ayton and Bagley's D than Young's because it is much more important to have a guy that can protect the rim than great guard defenders. I understand it's a guard perimeter game, and ideally you want guys that can defend, but it's more important to be able to match up on the offensive end and spread the floor, or your whole offense stalls. Klay isn't even a good defender this year and Steph's not a great defender either but they are fine given their offensive talents and the defense of their frontcourt.

I think Jackson and Booker would thrive more on offense playing with Trae than one of the bigs because Trae would draw perimeter defenders and we could really spread the floor for Jackson to penetrate and get to the rim. Without good floor stretchers it makes it tougher, and even having the middle clogged with defenders could impact Jackson's ability to get to the rim.