The Draft (Postseason Edition): 1/16/31/59 (NEW POLL)

[bwgood77]

Doncic with 0 pts on 1 shot, 1 ast, 1 rebound, 1 to and 2 fouls in a little over 6 minutes at the half in their second game against Panathinaikos.

Thought I'd beat MD to the posting of subpar game stats.

To follow second half. I imagine he plays a lot more and they were preserving him for fouls, but not sure. http://www.euroleague.net/main/results/showgame?gamecode=246&seasoncode=E2017

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[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Funny that I'm MOST worried about JJJr's fouls (and what that means for how his defense will translate) and the thing I'm LEAST worried about with Bagley is whether he will develop a well-rounded offensive game.

Bagley's got special tools, man. He's a bouncy 6'11" kid with a nack for putting the ball in the basket, but his footwork and quickness are like those of a small forward. He's five on my board but he's probably my favorite prospect in the draft! (I'm a mess!)

I don't understand the fouls. By all indications he is a very smart kid who learns at a rapid pace. Towns had similar foul problems in college, Bender had far worse foul problems coming in and fixed them. With proper coaching I just don't see it as a big deal. I think that is probably one of the easier things to learn.

Towns adjusted to the foul problems, but went from a + defender to a - defender. I think there's a link there. If in order to avoid fouls, you also have fewer blocks, there's your connection. Going for blocks makes you vulnerable to committing fouls. I don't get what's so complicated about that.

So being high on Bagley and thinking he can expand his offensive game, it seems I read a post from you yesterday mentioning that in your view, defense was our biggest need....this was as an alternative to 3 pt shooting but it seemed to be what you thought we should focus on.

I do think our defense is a bigger problem than our shooting. I'm giving reasons why I doubt the consensus evaluation of JJJr's defense. I really think Bamba's projection on that end is more of a sure thing, due to his ability to change or block shots while avoiding fouls, and cleaning the glass afterwards.

I have JJJ ahead of Bagley and Bamba because of the shooting and his impressive physical profile. But I'm not in love with him as a prospect. I agree that he projects the best of those three, but I think there's good reason to doubt, and personally, I "like" Bagley and Bamba more. Whatever that means. As I said, I'm a mess.

I think a big part of our problems on offense result from not having enough penetration and interior scoring threats - and this leaves us with fewer kick outs for good looks at the long ball. I can see Bagley really opening things up due to his potential as a roll man.

[King4Day]

Doncic with 0 pts on 1 shot, 1 ast, 1 rebound, 1 to and 2 fouls in a little over 6 minutes at the half in their second game against Panathinaikos.

Thought I'd beat MD to the posting of subpar game stats.

To follow second half. I imagine he plays a lot more and they were preserving him for fouls, but not sure. http://www.euroleague.net/main/results/showgame?gamecode=246&seasoncode=E2017

Well if it starts turning teams off of him, at least it gives us hope of him slipping should we get the 3 or 4 spots

[Sunzgunz]

I do not have JJJ high either. I usually don't look at advanced stats much, just rely on the ole eye test but him and bagely are the 2 I'd be really disappointed with if they were suns after the draft.

Yeah, he concerns me a little for a top 4 pick. His physical measurements are off the charts, he just seems to disappear a little too often. Don't get me wrong, he's still very young and if JJJ were floating around at the 10 spot, we better prounce on them phones with a decent pick package, but a little too much risk for top 4 at this point.

btw, I'm not pretending that I called Greg Oden a pre draft bust, I would have been ecstatic had the Suns grabbed him! However, is big, mobile and athletic as he was, he had a really odd run. It was hitchy and seemed to run like an old man.....a really, really big, strong and fast old man! In hindsight, perhaps his hitches were the result of overcompensating for a body that had already began to fall apart.

With that said, I want Ayton if we get/use the 1st pick, however, I see this same hitchy old man type of run with Ayton, just really big, fast and strong old man, lol. I sure hope it's not a similar breaking body thing. ...I'm sure it's nothing!

[TOO]

I do not have JJJ high either. I usually don't look at advanced stats much, just rely on the ole eye test but him and bagely are the 2 I'd be really disappointed with if they were suns after the draft.

Yeah, he concerns me a little for a top 4 pick. His physical measurements are off the charts, he just seems to disappear a little too often. Don't get me wrong, he's still very young and if JJJ were floating around at the 10 spot, we better prounce on them phones with a decent pick package, but a little too much risk for top 4 at this point.

btw, I'm not pretending that I called Greg Oden a pre draft bust, I would have been ecstatic had the Suns grabbed him! However, is big, mobile and athletic as he was, he had a really odd run. It was hitchy and seemed to run like an old man.....a really, really big, strong and fast old man! In hindsight, perhaps his hitches were the result of overcompensating for a body that had already began to fall apart.

With that said, I want Ayton if we get/use the 1st pick, however, I see this same hitchy old man type of run with Ayton, just really big, fast and strong old man, lol. I sure hope it's not a similar breaking body thing. ...I'm sure it's nothing!

JJJ and his rise is so similar to Isaac last year, you either love him or hate him. The talent is there in both cases, but I have no interest in tall analytic based prospects. I didnt see Isaac do enough to warrant a high pick last year, same with JJJ this year.

[bwgood77]

Funny that I'm MOST worried about JJJr's fouls (and what that means for how his defense will translate) and the thing I'm LEAST worried about with Bagley is whether he will develop a well-rounded offensive game.

Bagley's got special tools, man. He's a bouncy 6'11" kid with a nack for putting the ball in the basket, but his footwork and quickness are like those of a small forward. He's five on my board but he's probably my favorite prospect in the draft! (I'm a mess!)

I don't understand the fouls. By all indications he is a very smart kid who learns at a rapid pace. Towns had similar foul problems in college, Bender had far worse foul problems coming in and fixed them. With proper coaching I just don't see it as a big deal. I think that is probably one of the easier things to learn.

Towns adjusted to the foul problems, but went from a + defender to a - defender. I think there's a link there. If in order to avoid fouls, you also have fewer blocks, there's your connection. Going for blocks makes you vulnerable to committing fouls. I don't get what's so complicated about that.

So being high on Bagley and thinking he can expand his offensive game, it seems I read a post from you yesterday mentioning that in your view, defense was our biggest need....this was as an alternative to 3 pt shooting but it seemed to be what you thought we should focus on.

I do think our defense is a bigger problem than our shooting. I'm giving reasons why I doubt the consensus evaluation of JJJr's defense. I really think Bamba's projection on that end is more of a sure thing, due to his ability to change or block shots while avoiding fouls, and cleaning the glass afterwards.

I have JJJ ahead of Bagley and Bamba because of the shooting and his impressive physical profile. But I'm not in love with him as a prospect. I agree that he projects the best of those three, but I think there's good reason to doubt, and personally, I "like" Bagley and Bamba more. Whatever that means. As I said, I'm a mess.

I think a big part of our problems on offense result from not having enough penetration and interior scoring threats - and this leaves us with fewer kick outs for good looks at the long ball. I can see Bagley really opening things up due to his potential as a roll man.

Your fouls to defense thing makes sense, but Embiid for example, had almost identical foul rate to Jackson in college, and he has turned out fine. He also averaged more turnovers and fewer points, and shot 20% from 3, and has been good in those areas except turnovers. He is probably the better prospect from a raw defensive/foul box comparison

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jaren-jackson-jr--joel-embiid

Each prospect his unique though, so it all depends on who you can trust. The fact that JJJ is almost two years younger than Embiid was and a year younger than Towns was leads me to believe potentially has more upside and will gain a lot more confidence in his game, finishing, etc.

[Mjee]

I can pretty much guarantee that if we drop to pick #4 in the lottery...... its getting traded.

Just a hunch

You think to trade down a few spots? Or for a player?

I was thinking for an already established star.

[LukasBMW]

Doncic will be a bust! Mark it down. Someone green font it.

Mario Hezonja will have the same type of career Doncic has!


Ayton
Bagley
Porter
Bamba
Young

That is my top 5 in order.

Only way I would take Doncic is if he was #6-10 and we had another pick!

If we take Doncic, I'll be pissed.

Would rather trade the pick for someone. Myles Turner?

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I don't understand the fouls. By all indications he is a very smart kid who learns at a rapid pace. Towns had similar foul problems in college, Bender had far worse foul problems coming in and fixed them. With proper coaching I just don't see it as a big deal. I think that is probably one of the easier things to learn.

Towns adjusted to the foul problems, but went from a + defender to a - defender. I think there's a link there. If in order to avoid fouls, you also have fewer blocks, there's your connection. Going for blocks makes you vulnerable to committing fouls. I don't get what's so complicated about that.

So being high on Bagley and thinking he can expand his offensive game, it seems I read a post from you yesterday mentioning that in your view, defense was our biggest need....this was as an alternative to 3 pt shooting but it seemed to be what you thought we should focus on.

I do think our defense is a bigger problem than our shooting. I'm giving reasons why I doubt the consensus evaluation of JJJr's defense. I really think Bamba's projection on that end is more of a sure thing, due to his ability to change or block shots while avoiding fouls, and cleaning the glass afterwards.

I have JJJ ahead of Bagley and Bamba because of the shooting and his impressive physical profile. But I'm not in love with him as a prospect. I agree that he projects the best of those three, but I think there's good reason to doubt, and personally, I "like" Bagley and Bamba more. Whatever that means. As I said, I'm a mess.

I think a big part of our problems on offense result from not having enough penetration and interior scoring threats - and this leaves us with fewer kick outs for good looks at the long ball. I can see Bagley really opening things up due to his potential as a roll man.

Your fouls to defense thing makes sense, but Embiid for example, had almost identical foul rate to Jackson in college, and he has turned out fine. He also averaged more turnovers and fewer points, and shot 20% from 3, and has been good in those areas except turnovers. He is probably the better prospect from a raw defensive/foul box comparison

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jaren-jackson-jr--joel-embiid

Each prospect his unique though, so it all depends on who you can trust. The fact that JJJ is almost two years younger than Embiid was and a year younger than Towns was leads me to believe potentially has more upside and will gain a lot more confidence in his game, finishing, etc.

Agreed entirely. So it seems to me maybe our Bagley/JJJ divide has been more about our differences of opinion about Bagley. Maybe I need to listen to more stepien podcasts than BloombergTV lol...

[bwgood77]

I do not have JJJ high either. I usually don't look at advanced stats much, just rely on the ole eye test but him and bagely are the 2 I'd be really disappointed with if they were suns after the draft.

Yeah, he concerns me a little for a top 4 pick. His physical measurements are off the charts, he just seems to disappear a little too often. Don't get me wrong, he's still very young and if JJJ were floating around at the 10 spot, we better prounce on them phones with a decent pick package, but a little too much risk for top 4 at this point.

btw, I'm not pretending that I called Greg Oden a pre draft bust, I would have been ecstatic had the Suns grabbed him! However, is big, mobile and athletic as he was, he had a really odd run. It was hitchy and seemed to run like an old man.....a really, really big, strong and fast old man! In hindsight, perhaps his hitches were the result of overcompensating for a body that had already began to fall apart.

With that said, I want Ayton if we get/use the 1st pick, however, I see this same hitchy old man type of run with Ayton, just really big, fast and strong old man, lol. I sure hope it's not a similar breaking body thing. ...I'm sure it's nothing!

JJJ and his rise is so similar to Isaac last year, you either love him or hate him. The talent is there in both cases, but I have no interest in tall analytic based prospects. I didnt see Isaac do enough to warrant a high pick last year, same with JJJ this year.

Yeah, I wish Isaac had played more this season. He was a huge difference maker on defense for a rookie when he played, but was injured quite a bit. I expect him to end up being solid. But he didn't have nearly the numbers that Jackson did this year...more steals..that's about it. But I agree they are similar in some respects as being the long, versatile defensive focused players that don't jump out with just scoring a ton of points that get people excited.

[bwgood77]

Agreed entirely. So it seems to me maybe our Bagley/JJJ divide has been more about our differences of opinion about Bagley. Maybe I need to listen to more stepien podcasts than BloombergTV lol...

I haven't listened to many of those...the Kellan Olson one is the only one I recall...maybe one more. Most of my Bagley stuff is the eye test, and then I look at the numbers to verify what I see.

[MathiasPW]

I'll just say this re-Ayton. I think people are looking at today's game and penalizing him for not being an ideal fit. He does have a great jumper, and I do personally think he will hit the 3 ball at a decent clip within a few years. But I think people are underestimating his ability to bully people down low, hit jumpers at a high clip, and finish over the top of everyone, while remaining nimble enough to run with smaller guys. It is really rare. I will never understand the Okafor comparisons. And I don't think he's even comparable to Bagley offensively because right now Bagley is a glorified Kenneth Faried. People are assuming he isn't a fit due to things he hasn't done yet (like hit 3s), while taking that as proof that he CAN'T do that. I think his raw skills point to that not being the case.

Yeah the way I view Ayton and his fit in today's NBA is that you expect him to be the so dominant that you make teams adjust to what you're doing and not the other way around. Basically say to teams 'you want to go small' well we have this monster in the post that's going to punish the **** out of you if you do. In a way that can even help your defense because it prevents some teams from playing their best offensive lineup against you because they will be forced to play a traditional big against him.

The reason that small ball is so popular and works is most teams bigs aren't talented enough to punish teams for doing it.

Well, the rules benefit small ball. The 3 secs defensive rule that forces bigs out of the paint, refs allowing smaller players to slap the hell out of bigs hands when with the ball or jumping on their shoulders on incoming passes, and the restricted area all create less room for traditional bigs to punish small ball.

[MathiasPW]

Would Jabari Parker be a good comp for Bagley?

[WeekapaugGroove]

Would Jabari Parker be a good comp for Bagley?

Kind of. Parker was more polished from the perimeter coming out but Bagley is a more 'springy' athlete and a far superior rebounder. I think they both suffer from the same problem of not knowing what to do on defense (still a HUGE problem for Parker today).

[WeekapaugGroove]

JJJ and his rise is so similar to Isaac last year, you either love him or hate him. The talent is there in both cases, but I have no interest in tall analytic based prospects. I didnt see Isaac do enough to warrant a high pick last year, same with JJJ this year.

Probably a good assessment and I guess I'm the exact opposite of you because I love both guys as prospects. I would have taken Isaac over JJ last year and I still think he's going to be a better player long term. Im fully prepared to die on isaac island

Everyone has their profile they like, i bet young fans were high on guys like buddy and monk.

[Villalobos]

Everyone has their profile they like, i bet young fans were high on guys like buddy and monk.

Not me. The thing that makes Trae so interesting to me is the scoring ability plus the impressive playmaking, something those types of guys didn't have.

[Blonde]

Everyone has their profile they like, i bet young fans were high on guys like buddy and monk.

Not me. The thing that makes Trae so interesting to me is the scoring ability plus the impressive playmaking, something those types of guys didn't have.

Same. I was low on Isaac and I’m low(ish) on JJJ. It’s funny that a lot of the same draft experts that preach going for high upside also tout up JJJ and Isaac, who are valuable because of their defensive floors. Relatively safe, yet very good role players don’t excite me. I’d rather fill that role with experienced vets or later draft picks.

I like Trae a lot (would be fine with him at 3) but was not high at all on Monk or Buddy. While all three shot great and produced high numbers, Trae had outlier production. He has 4 elite skills at least: shooting off the dribble, spot up shooting, passing, and handles. Neither Buddy nor Monk (or Jimmer or Reddick) had that skill package.

Bagley vs Jackson is a harder debate. A lot of people compare Bagley to Amare, but Amare had freakish power and strength. Amare put up 30 and 11 in the playoffs as a 22 year old. Bagley might not even be able to stay on the floor in a playoff series today. I don’t like the fit of either on this team because Bagley next to Josh Jackson sounds like a terrible fit due to spacing, and JJJ is just a better Bender who also sucks at rebounding so he has diminished value for us. That’s why I like the idea of Michael Porter because he can shoot/score and rebound from the PF position. If Bagley can play 5 then that would solve a lot of problems.

[darealjuice]

JJJ and his rise is so similar to Isaac last year, you either love him or hate him. The talent is there in both cases, but I have no interest in tall analytic based prospects. I didnt see Isaac do enough to warrant a high pick last year, same with JJJ this year.

Everyone has their profile they like, i bet young fans were high on guys like buddy and monk.

Nah, I pretty anti-Buddy and wasn't a Monk fan. I wasn't/am not particularly high on either Isaac or JJJ though.

Trae's volume scoring is definitely nice, but his playmaking is the big selling point for me. He has the best AST% for a college freshman since the stat is available of 48.5% (5th best overall), and his TOV% is a manageable 18.2% (other top point guards in recent years: Fultz 13.4%, Lonzo 18.6%, DSJ 17.3%, Dunn 18.8%, Russell 14.8%). This is while averaging 27 ppg on 58.5 TS%, being double teamed ~43% of the time in the half court, and playing against the 5th toughest schedule in college basketball according to KenPom. His passing and ability to create offense are only going to get better when he has more space and better weapons.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I definitely gravitate towards guys who do lots of things well but nothing super elite vs the guys who do a couple things elite but have holes.

For instance I thought marion was better than amare at their peaks. Or modern day I think Otto porter is a better player than a guy like wiggins.

To me you can build a fun team that can win a bunch of games with flawed players but when you get into a 7 game series late in the playoffs against a good coach they find ways to beat the hell out of players weaknesses. So for the Suns if they want to build around Booker and Jackson (two players who have obvious flaws right now) then should avoid drafting core guys with those same flaws (D and shooting).