darealjuice wrote:https://www.thestepien.com/shot-chart/
Shot charts for college players from the last 2 years are available on here with most game, it has their NBA 3-point% for the season. For example, Trae Young shot 35.59% with 84 makes on 236 attempts from NBA 3 outside of the 4 games that they're missing.
Yeah, that's one reason I think he took a lot of deep shots even though they are not considered good shots, are because of the space. That's why I think with more space, a further back line, etc, defenders spread out, other elite offensive options, these guys will shoot better.
As for taking out heaves, Ben Falk at Cleaning the Glass takes out all heaves when compiling his #s for his subscriber's analysis, but he hasn't looked at college. He has talked about how it is stupid to include them because they are pretty much irrelevant in real analysis and that it hurts a guy like Steph who doesn't care and throws up a lot of long prayers at the end of a shot clock but many players won't or will shoot it intentionally right after the buzzer to avoid it impacting their numbers. Trae has huge confidence so he likely threw up a bunch too.
Although I hate that people keep bringing it up as an excuse for Doncic they probably did have a bigger impact considering he doesn't take a ton of shots. He typically takes fewer than 10 shots a game, and maybe about half of them from 3. But he's the type of guy with the ball in his hands often that won't want to not try so he maybe threw up one end of qtr heave a game (out of his 5 3 pt attempts) on avg...that's a pure guess probably a bit on the high side. Now that may be on the high end, but if it's anywhere near 20% of your attempts that can have a pretty sizable impact. I you went 31 out of 100 but would have went 31 out of 80 that goes from like 31% to close to 39%. Now the % wasn't probably that high but it may not be that far off.
A guy like Trae, for example, shot almost 20 times a game with half his attempts from 3. If he also threw up one heave end of qtr, it would have amounted to more like 10% of his 3pt attempts, it would have half an impact, or a 4% difference.
It's probably closer to like 10% of attempts for Doncic and 5% for Trae, so it would shift %s more like 4% and 2%, or somewhere in between.
I use one end of qtr game as a starting point because I figure with four end of qtr possessions, each team on avg has two and maybe half of those times they don't have ideal time left on the shot clock to get a good shot or across court. It could be more or less...likely less, so then I cut in in half to get to once every two games, which is probably a bit low.
Edit...it looks like the poster above said 17 in 31 games so that sounds about right.