Pretty much what I expected. A young wing with a 3PT shooting and all-around skill will be sought after in this modern NBA when switchable and 3PT shooting wings are in demand. It only takes one team to get loose with their checkbook
The RFA market is just so damn unpredictable. Some guys get huge offers in an attempt to get the other team not to match and some never really get a market at all.
Now your point about his skill set being in demand is actually why I'm less terrified of an overpay. Look at a guy like Otto Porter sure he got over paid but ultimately they were still able to flip him for an expiring and the RFA rights to Portis so it's not like he ever became a true negative. Crabbe was but that deal was pretty mind boggling the minute it was signed and Mahimni cashed in on the last wave of teams actually paying average C's, now no one values that kind of player. And even Crabbe it only took a 1st in the 20's to move 3 years of his contract. So as long as Kelly doesn't get hurt or just completely suck it's unlikely to be a real disaster of a contract.
In some ways NOT paying him and letting him leave is just as risky as an overpay. Because if they didn't adequately replace him with the money saved letting him go that could piss off players and also fans and it's been such a mess with both over the past 8 years of so that's a dangerous proposition.
To me this is different than the Knight situation because he really never played well that year he got here they just kind of felt like they had to resign him because of what they gave up in the trade.
Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming Wow! What a Ride!-H.S.T.